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1.
We examine how firms discover effective competitive positions in worlds that are both novel and complex. In such settings, neither rational deduction nor local search is likely to lead a firm to a successful array of choices. Analogical reasoning, however, may be helpful, allowing managers to transfer useful wisdom from similar settings they have experienced in the past. From a long list of observable industry characteristics, analogizing managers choose a subset they believe distinguishes similar industries from different ones. Faced with a novel industry, they seek a familiar industry which matches the novel one along that subset of characteristics. They transfer from the matching industry high‐level policies that guide search in the novel industry. We embody this conceptualization of analogy in an agent‐based simulation model. The model allows us to examine the impact of managerial and structural characteristics on the effectiveness of analogical reasoning. With respect to managerial characteristics, we find, not surprisingly, that analogical reasoning is especially powerful when managers pay attention to characteristics that truly distinguish similar industries from different ones. More surprisingly, we find that the marginal returns to depth of experience diminish rapidly while greater breadth of experience steadily improves performance. Both depth and breadth of experience are useful only when one accurately understands what distinguishes similar industries from different ones. We also discover that following an analogy in too orthodox a manner—strictly constraining search efforts to what the analogy suggests—can be dysfunctional. With regard to structural characteristics, we find that a well‐informed analogy is particularly powerful when interactions among decisions cross policy boundaries so that the underlying decision problem is not easily decomposed. Overall, the results shed light on a form of managerial reasoning that we believe is prevalent among practicing strategists yet is largely absent from scholarly analysis of strategy. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Organizational scholars have highlighted the importance of interpretive ambivalence for mindfulness, creativity, and strategic change. Ambivalence occurs when an issue is seen simultaneously as positive and negative. We examine organizational factors that influence the propensity of organizational leaders to evaluate a new strategic issue ambivalently. Data come from a survey of 220 German CEOs confronted with the enlargement of the European Union. We find that CEOs of firms with a more ambidextrous strategic orientation and a moderate sense of organizational control over their environment are most likely to be ambivalent about this issue. Our findings affirm the prevalence of interpretive ambivalence at the executive level and suggest ways for organizations to promote or prevent ambivalence in strategic sensemaking. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness. 相似文献
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Several approaches have been used to explore environmental dynamism as a contingent predictor of the relationship between rational‐comprehensive strategic decision‐making and firm‐level performance. At the decision level of analysis, however, small sample sizes, low statistical power, and statistical dependence have plagued the research. Through the use of a simulated decision‐making environment and multilevel analysis, this study examined 400 decisions from 54 executive teams. Consistent with much of the existing firm‐level research, the results indicated that environmental dynamism may moderate the relationship between rational‐comprehensive decision making and decision quality. Surprisingly, the form of the relationship differed from much of the firm‐level research. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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This 4‐year study examines the effect of strategic decision speed upon subsequent firm performance and identifies environmental and organizational characteristics that relate to decision speed. We draw upon strategic decision‐making theory and organization theory to propose that strategic decision speed mediates the relation between environmental and organizational characteristics and performance. Measures of business environment, organization structure, strategic decision speed, and firm performance (growth and profitability) were collected from 318 CEOs from 1996 to 2000. Structural equation modeling confirmed that fast strategic decision‐making predicts subsequent firm growth and profit and mediates the relation of dynamism, munificence, centralization, and formalization with firm performance. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The level of agreement among a firm’s top executives about how things are done in that firm has a variety of important implications. For example, agreement about a firm’s decision-making norms may allow members of the top management team (TMT) to focus on the substance of their most critical decisions and not get bogged down in debates about the process. In the present study, data from 65 firms in two industries were used to identify determinants and consequences of TMT agreement about the comprehensiveness of the strategic decision process. Results for consequences indicate that the level of TMT agreement was positively related to organizational performance. As for the determinants of agreement, organizational size was negatively related to agreement but past performance exhibited no association. Therefore, the results suggest that it is TMT agreement that influences performance, not the reverse. In addition, a surprising result was that firms in an industry with an unstable environment exhibited significantly more agreement about the process than did their counterparts in an industry whose environment was stable. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Managers operate in a complex, uncertain environment and tend to form simplified models in order to cope with this environment and make competitive strategic decisions (i.e., cost‐leadership, differentiation, or focus). In this study, we use an experimental design to examine the strategic choice decision‐making process in firms located in the United States and Japan. We develop several main‐effect propositions regarding managerial selection of competitive strategies, depending on the competitive forces (buyer power, threat of substitutes, threat of new firm entry, and high intensity of rivalry) they are facing. We propose a main effect due to country of origin: Japanese managers prefer a cost‐leadership strategy more than American managers do. We also propose several interaction effects regarding cross‐national differences in strategy selection between Japanese and U.S. managers. To test our propositions, we collected experimental data from 316 U.S. executives and 459 Japanese executives. We assessed relative impacts of the competitive forces on strategic decision‐making using a multilevel regression analysis. The research findings indicated that high buyer power and high substitution threat were associated with a preference for cost‐leadership strategies, and Japanese managers were significantly more likely to prefer a cost‐leadership strategy than U.S. managers. We also found that, under conditions of high buyer power, U.S. managers were less likely than Japanese managers to enter a market with a differentiation or focus strategy. We found little support for other interaction hypotheses, suggesting points of similarity between U.S. and Japanese managers. We conclude with a discussion of theoretical and managerial implications of our results. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Competitive positioning in a global market requires an understanding of the decision processes and behavioral attributes of executives from different countries. These attributes reflect the executives’ cultural background, the national policies under which they have worked, and their home country’s level of economic development (institutional context). The current research compared strategic decision models of U.S. and Korean executives and the results suggest that criteria employed by the executives from the two countries differ. Differences in institutional context between Korea and the U.S.A. were reflected in the weightings of objective criteria used by the executives. Korean executives emphasized industry attractiveness, sales and market share (because of policies that encourage growth) and U.S. executives emphasized projected demand, discounted cash flow and ROI (because of policies and institutions that focus on profitability). The results suggest the importance of understanding the strategic orientations of international competitors, partners in international strategic alliances and managers of international subsidiaries or divisions. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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This study examines the realized strategies of all domestic manufacturers in a growing, high technology, industrial market characterized by high levels of regulatory, demand, and technological uncertainty. These manufacturers have behaved quite differently and experienced varying levels of success in the market. A typology of entry strategies grounded in an intensive analysis of these data is presented. Specifically, it addresses the timing and scope of a firm's entry into the market, strategic adjustments over time, and the impact of these decisions on the firm's performance. It is proposed that these strategies represent trade-offs between the risks of resource commitment and competitive preemption. Specific, testable hypotheses based on this typology are also provided. 相似文献
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Research summary: Despite abundant anecdotal evidence that many top executives experience anxiety in their jobs, the upper echelons literature has remained largely silent on the organizational implications of executive job anxiety. In this study, we theorize that job anxiety will cause executives to (1) create a social buffer against threats by surrounding themselves with supportive decision‐making teams, and (2) pursue lower‐risk firm strategies. We further argue that these effects will vary depending upon whether strategic decisions occur in gain versus loss contexts. We test our ideas using a novel multisource, multimethod approach that includes data from 84 top executives of large organizations, their decision‐making teams, their friends and families, and archival sources. Results from an analysis of 154 major strategic decisions provide general support for our theory. Managerial summary: Although many top executives experience anxiety in their jobs, some struggle more with anxiety than others. Our paper is the first to focus on how job anxiety affects executives' decisions. We analyze 154 major strategic decisions made by 84 top executives of large organizations in a range of industries, collecting data from personal interviews with executives and surveys of their decision‐making teams, spouses, and friends. We find that anxious executives take fewer strategic risks, especially when things are going well. We further argue that anxious executives focus more on “buffering” themselves from threats, and find that they surround themselves with close supporters when times are tough. Our results demonstrate a pattern through which anxiety causes top executives to focus more heavily on avoiding potential threats. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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There exist two prominent accounts of how managers make sense of and take action in relation to strategic issues. The threat–opportunity (TO) and feasibility–urgency (FU) approaches primarily emphasize automatic/affective and active/deliberative strategic issue diagnosis processes, respectively. Current research, however, does not effectively integrate or fully explore the relationship between these two frameworks. We employ theory‐building literature to develop a framework that highlights four distinct and increasingly integrative lenses through which such an exploration can be systematically carried out. Analyzing data from how firms reacted to the economic uncertainty of early 2003, the results of our study indicate that the FU approach is a better predictor of both intentions and actual responses than the TO approach. Our results also indicate that threat is positively related to urgency and negatively related to feasibility, while opportunity is positively related to feasibility and negatively related to urgency. Further, using the expectancy–instrumentality–valence (EIV) motivational theory as a framework, we factor analyze both TO and FU items, identifying three underlying constructs of favorability, urgency, and influence (which we dub FUI). FUI has a higher predictive efficacy than the TO approach alone. We highlight implications for theory building and research in the strategic issue diagnosis literature. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Strategic managers appear increasingly under pressure from stakeholder concerns regarding social and ethical issues. Partially in response, the supply of ethical decision‐making models has grown rapidly. Business ethics scholars have broadened their scope to incorporate moral philosophies into their research endeavors. Despite these positive trends, the international focus of business ethics research has been slow to evolve. Yet, diverse moral philosophies, often most apparent across international borders, have important strategic implications for multinational firms. The ethical norms pursued by cross‐cultural alliance partners, distributors, suppliers, customers, financiers, and foreign government agencies can create public relations disasters, foster shareholder unrest, lead to consumer boycotts, and impact organizational outcomes. We seek to rectify the deficiency in international business ethics scholarship with two distinct contributions. First, we develop a new cross‐cultural, macro‐level model of societal ethics. Second, we map moral philosophies onto an established framework for assessing socioeconomic environments. These theoretical tools should assist managers of multinational organizations, international policy‐makers, and researchers to recognize and prepare for the ethical consequences of international strategic decisions. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Similarity judgments are an important and distinct aspect of strategy formulation. They are manifest in strategic decisions and errors, and in the construction of analytic concepts such as strategic groups and relatedness in diversification. However, existing models of strategy formulation either assume away the process of making similarity judgments or regard it as unproblematic. This paper highlights the role of similarity judgments in strategy formulation, and discusses cognitive findings showing that decision makers’ assessment of similarity is not free from bias. The cognitive findings help construct a new process explanation for a wide range of apparently isolated strategic errors. The process explanation is contrasted and integrated with traditional explanations based on imperfections in decision inputs. Finally, in light of the cognitive findings, the methods and assumptions of existing approaches in strategy formulation research to the construction of analytic concepts are reexamined. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Numerous studies have focused on CEO charisma as an antecedent to firm performance, but this literature has largely overlooked the possibility that charisma manifests in more proximal strategic initiatives that (unlike performance) are largely under the CEO's control. In this study, we integrate perspectives from the upper echelons and charismatic leadership literatures to argue that CEO charisma influences year‐over‐year strategic change, the degree to which strategies deviate from industry central tendencies, and the degree of emphasis on corporate social responsibility. We also theorize that, depending on the outcome in question, the effects of charisma can become both amplified and diminished as CEO tenure advances. Employing a novel data collection approach for a sample of 113 S&P 500 CEOs, we find broad support for our theory. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Scholars have characterized CEO tenures as life cycles in which executives learn rapidly during their initial time in office, but then grow stale as they lose touch with the external environment. We argue, however, that the opportunities for adaptive learning are limited because (1) a CEO assumes office with a relatively fixed paradigm that changes little thereafter; (2) inertia limits the speed at which an organization can align itself with a new CEO's paradigm; and (3) for any within‐paradigm learning to occur, the external environment must be stable enough so that the cause–effect relationships that CEOs glean today remain relevant tomorrow. In a longitudinal study of 98 CEOs in the relatively stable branded foods industry and 228 CEOs in the highly dynamic computer industry, we found results that strongly supported our hypotheses. In the stable food industry, firm‐level performance improved steadily with tenure, with downturns occurring only among the few CEOs who served more than 10–15 years. In contrast, in the dynamic computer industry, CEOs were at their best when they started their jobs, and firm performance declined steadily across their tenures, presumably as their paradigms grew obsolete more quickly than they could learn. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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This theoretical article introduces the construct of CEO celebrity in order to explain how the tendency of journalists to attribute a firm's actions and outcomes to the volition of its CEO affects such firm. In the model developed here, journalists celebrate a CEO whose firm takes strategic actions that are distinctive and consistent by attributing such actions and performance to the firm's CEO. In so doing, journalists over‐attribute a firm's actions and outcomes to the disposition of its CEO rather than to broader situational factors. A CEO who internalizes such celebrity will also tend to believe this over‐attribution and become overconfident about the efficacy of her past actions and future abilities. Hubris arises when CEO overconfidence results in problematic firm decisions, including undue persistence with actions that produce celebrity. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Executives use analogies to improve strategic decisions. However, existing research provides little guidance on the types and number of analogies that produce the best decisions. We examine models of analogy and present findings from two empirical tests. The first test, a study of private‐equity investment decisions, finds that an ‘outside view’—forming a reference class of analogies—performs better than a few analogies familiar to the decision maker. The second test, a study of film revenue forecasts, compares a new model we call similarity‐based forecasting (SBF) with existing methods. The study finds that SBF, which combines elements of reference class forecasting and case‐based decision making, produces better forecasts than regression models. We discuss the consequences of our findings for research and practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Anchoring is a ubiquitous heuristic by which decision makers heavily rely on a piece of information (anchor) that appears prior to a decision. Yet, we know little about its role in strategic decisions. This study considers its influence on acquisition premiums by examining whether a focal premium decision may be anchored on the premium that another firm paid for the acquisition that directly preceded the focal acquisition in the same market because it presents a salient and compatible premium to decision makers. Our results support this premise, particularly when preceding acquisitions happened more recently and were similar in size to the focal deals, when focal deals were in a foreign market, and when acquirers lacked acquisition experience in the target market or had a higher acquisition rate. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献