城市危机管理模式新探

城市是各种危机最频发的地区,我国城市的危机管理形势非常严峻.在充分研究城市公共危机的表现形式和基本特点的基础上,积极探讨城市危机管理模式的转换,从法律体系、中枢指挥系统、信息管理系统、预警系统、社会联动机制等方面进行机制创新.     

Urban Responses to The Economic Crisis: Confirmation of Urban Policies as Crisis Management in Malmö

It is common knowledge that crisis also signifies opportunity and opens spaces for change. When responding to the current economic crisis, is urban planning seizing this opportunity? This article investigates the case of the Swedish city of Malmö and explores its responses to the crisis by looking dialectically at the crisis, municipal planning policy and real‐estate capital. In this article, the local state and urban planning are regarded as social relations, with the aim of going beyond traditional formulations that oppose market (neoliberal) and state intervention (Keynesianism) as the main focus for crisis management. Against this background, the article shows that the 2008 crisis was met in Malmö by an active municipality that confirmed the existing visions and tendencies, rather than exploiting the crisis as a moment for changes and transformation. The article seeks to explain this by looking at the social relations that have constituted the urban policies in Malmö for the past two decades.     

Modelling contagion of financial crises

Inspired by the empirical findings, we include international traders to capture linkage between markets and propose a two-market heterogeneous agents model to simulate financial crisis with contagion effect. This paper manages to calibrate sudden crash behavior of US and UK stock markets during “Black Monday” of 1987 besides smooth crisis and disturbing crisis categorized in literature. It is implied that financial crisis and its contagion could be endogenous, which supports a scenario of over-valuation causing a financial crisis. In addition, the model shows that financial system could be fragile in which small shock(s) hitting individual market’s fundamental could cause financial crisis spreading to the other market. This also supports a scenario of external shock triggering a financial crisis. Lastly, to demonstrate the relevance of our model to financial markets, we manage to match typical stylized facts, especially cross-correlation which is exclusive to a multiple-market case.     

企业危机管理浅探

当前提升企业危机管理能力具有重要意义,不仅能最大限度地降低各种危机给企业带来的损失和威胁,防止事态的进一步恶化,还可能使危机转化为企业重要的发展机遇。因此为更好地适应瞬息万变的市场环境,实现企业的持续健康发展,企业在遵循常规化、事前预防为主、诚信和快速反应、企业高层积极参与等原则的前提下,应该完善企业危机管理内容,加强企业管理,提升企业的危机管理能力。     

企业如何防范财务危机

财务危机是指企业无力支付到期债务或费用的一种经济现象,其实质是由于企业对财务风险失去控制。文章探讨了企业如何防范财务危机。     

浅谈后金融危机时代我国中小银行风险管理的问题和对策

进入2011年,金融危机肆意破坏经济的恶劣态势得到有效控制,金融危机后的全球经济开始出现复苏性增长,全球进入后金融危机时代,金融风险管理这一问题进入人们的视野。我国金融机构,特别是中小银行在此次危机中平稳度过的同时也暴露出一些风险管理方面的问题。文中首先对时间背景后金融危机时代进行解释,着重简述我国中小银行的发展,着重对中小银行和大型银行的差异作对比,最后对风险管理中出现的问题和对策进行阐述并得出结论。     

Executives’ Orientations as Indicators of Crisis Management Policies and Practices*

ABSTRACT The paper examines effects of executives’ orientations on crisis management awareness and practices, drawing on the simplicity and paradox management theories. It is suggested that a focus on single‐sided management constitutes an antecedent of crisis proneness. Employing a set of key corporate domains and based on a holistic organizational approach, the study aims at assessing the extent to which companies are crisis prone or prepared. In a sample of 82 Istaeli business and not‐for‐profit organizations it was found that human resource management, strategy, structure, and unlearning factors significantly predicted crisis preparedness. These results suggest that unlearning, despite a mere allusion to this correlate in the simplicity and paradox management theories, correlates better with crisis preparedness. By contrast, traditional strategy‐related and structural effects were marginally related to crisis management policies. Implications and suggestions for further research are proposed.     

公共危机管理的多边合作体系分析

文章指出传统的公共危机管理是以政府为主体,而目前的危机管理则要寻求一种整合模式,构建一个危机管理的多边合作体系,同时政府要注意处理好多边合作中较易产生的问题,切实提升危机管理的能力。     

Regional Innovation By Networking the case of southern Lower Austria

The crisis of old industrial areas has often been explained by the dominance of a few traditional industries that faced dramatic decreases in demand. For at least two reasons this demand-side explanation is inadequate. First, it does not answer the question of why there is no regional redeployment of the productive resources that are set free by the decreases in demand. Second, it is not just a few traditional industries that are affected by crisis. Even high-tech inldustries and the service sector are growing at below-average rates in old industrial areas. This article stresses the importance of specific interfirm and interindustry linkages for understanding the crisis of old industrial areas. It presents attempts to stimulate interfirm cooperation and to create an innovation support network to overcome the crisis of an old industrial area in Austria. x     

支持向量机在财务危机预警中的应用评析

信息技术的迅速发展和世界经济全球化使很多企业面临各种各样的经营困难,最终体现为财务危机。提前对其进行预警以协助企业有效地规避财务危机是十分重要的。随着研究的深入,各种财务危机预警方法逐渐成熟。本文从样本选择、模型建立和预测性能3方面对支持向量机（SVM）在财务危机预警领域的应用进行了评析,认为SVM方法具有强大的分类功能和优良的学习性能,在财务危机预警领域有着广阔的应用前景。     

Pre-crisis reforms,austerity measures and the public-private wage gap in two emerging economies

This paper analyzes crisis adjustments of the public and private sectors in two emerging market economies, Croatia and Serbia, during the 2008–2011 period. It focuses on public-private wage gaps at the onset of and during the crisis, decomposed into structural and composition effects using an extension to the Oaxaca-Blinder method based on Recentered Influence Function (RIF) regressions and reweighting. The main results indicate that at the beginning of the crisis public sector workers in both countries enjoyed a significant wage premium, with the premium in Serbia being about three times higher than in Croatia. During the crisis, both countries experienced a similar increase of the premium, with Croatia reaching the size of gap usually estimated for EU countries, while Serbia stayed largely ahead. The results also show that the wage distribution in the public sector is more compressed than in the private sector in both countries, which is further exacerbated by the crisis. Despite the introduced austerity measures, public sector workers continue to enjoy well-protected and privileged jobs in terms of wages relative to their private sector counterparts. Structural reforms undertaken prior to the crisis played a decisive role in determining the countries’ responses to the crisis.     

波动和相关的一致性与差异及传染的阶段特征

本文首次分析了市场波动和相关的一致性与差异,并进而考察金融危机期间传染的阶段特征。研究表明,危机期间,高波动与高相关具有较高的一致性,其他时期则存在差异;几乎不会出现高波动低相关的情形,但并非总是波动性的增加引致了关联水平的上升,关联水平的上升也可能会先于波动性的增加;危机初期,市场需要对复杂的信息进行不断地识别和过滤,以至于波动机制、相关机制都存在较为频繁的转换;次贷危机、欧洲主权债务危机的传染具有系统性特征。     

出口型企业危机预警理论研究与系统建构

出口型企业在我国经济建设和发展中起着举足轻重的作用。金融危机爆发以来,我国出口型企业遭受了巨大的冲击,2009年的出口贸易首次在改革开放之后出现了负增长。这使得企业界和理论界开始高度重视和认真思考如何预防、减轻甚至杜绝危机的问题。本文首先分析了出口型企业的危机来源和分类,然后对危机监测、危机评估、危机预警、危机预控等理论的研究现状进行了综述,接着基于危机管理理论和系统管理理论建构了企业危机预警系统。该系统模型可以应用于出口型企业、行业协会和政府有关监管部门,有利于提高出口型企业应对危机的能力、水平和效率。     

Predicting/hypothesizing the findings of the M4 Competition

Science is caught up in a replication crisis which has negative implications for published findings that cannot be reproduced by other researchers. However, such is not the case with the M4 Competition, which not only provided the means of effectively reproducing its submissions, but also preregistered ten predictions/hypotheses about its expected results two-and-a-half months before its completion. From a scientific point of view, attempting to predict the results of a study is far more powerful than merely justifying them in hindsight after they have become available. The present paper presents these ten predictions/hypotheses that the organizers of the M4 Competition made and evaluates them based on the actual results. It is shown that at least six of the ten predictions/hypotheses were entirely correct, while two were partially correct, one required additional information to be confirmed, and the remaining one was not predicted correctly.     

企业的危机管理

本文阐述了企业危机管理的重要性 ,分析了危机管理的几个过程 ,提出了一些危机管理的方法和措施     

美国次贷危机对我国住房金融的启示

本文从美国次贷危机的形成着手分析其产生的背景,剖析其风险积累过程,进而阐述该危机对美国经济乃至世界经济和中国的影响,并结合日本金融泡沫破裂的教训,总结对我国住房金融发展的启示。     

非政府组织参与公共危机管理的困境及对策研究

当前,公共危机事件频发,政府能力又是有限的,在公共危机管理的过程中容易忽视一些边缘群体,因此,许多非政府组织参与了公共危机管理,并利用自身独特的视角优势、行动优势发挥了重要作用。但在实际参与危机管理的过程中,非政府组织自身也存在一定的局限性,遇到了诸多困境。论文主要通过分析非政府组织遇到的困境,进而提出相应的对策及建议。     

Thatcherism delayed? The Irish crisis and the paradox of social partnership

This article reviews the state of Irish industrial relations in light of the current economic crisis. It argues that social partnership, paradoxically, was rooted in the continuation of a tradition of permissive voluntarism with minimal employment rights with both direct and indirect implications for the current Irish economic crisis. As such, Irish industrial relations cannot be understood in isolation from a broader analysis of the rise and fall of social structures of capitalist accumulation. The discussion considers the prognosis for social partnership post‐economic crisis.     

危机管理系统与企业伦理共建提升企业核心竞争力

经济全球化加剧了企业间竞争,企业的竞争优势来源于企业核心竞争力,企业危机管理能力和企业伦理建设已成为企业提升核心竞争力的两大关键因素。从企业危机管理能力、企业伦理建设以及这两者的关系入手,分析危机管理能力及伦理建设与企业核心竞争力之间的相互关系,最后提出了企业增强危机管理能力和加强企业伦理建设的对策建议以提升企业的核心竞争力。