Economic Reform,Structural Changes,and Regional Economic Growth in China: Cross-Province Regressions

Through cross-province growth regressions this paper analyses the relationship between China's regional economic growth and economic reforms and structural changes since 1978. By applying the extreme bound analysis, the paper has demonstrated the statistical significance and robustness of the estimated coefficients of the following variables of interest: share of the state sector, share of foreign capital in capital formation, extra-budgetary funds to GNP ratio, and standard deviation of inflation. With these and such ‘always-included’ variables as GNP share of investment and initial level of illiteracy, regression models explain about 60% of cross-province variations in growth. The results suggest that continuing reductions in the state sector and attraction of foreign capital are two of the most important factors for rapid per capital income growth in China.     

Spatial spillover and regional economic growth in China

This paper investigates the spatial structure of the provincial economic growth and the spatial spillover in China from 1998 to 2008. First, we apply Moran's index to detect the positive spatial autocorrelations across the provinces of China. Second, we build a new economic geography model and the role of market potential in promoting regional income growth is highlighted. Third, two measures of market potential are constructed and a spatial error model is adopted to obtain the estimations, considering spatial autocorrelation. Controlling for major inputs, such as labor, capital, and human capital, the market potential continues to promote substantial regional growth. On average, an increase of 10 percentage points in the market potential increases the regional GDP per capita growth by 3–5 percentage points.     

Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis*

There is a general consensus that human capital is a major factor behind long‐run economic growth. Yet, on a macro level, the empirical results do not always seem to concur with this view. To explain this gap between theory and empirics, more focus has been laid on measurement error and data quality. Using an alternative estimate of the stock of human capital, based on Judson (2002), we find evidence that the two major views on the role of human capital in economic development by Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) coexist and are by no means mutually exclusive. Using a Johansen cointegration test, we find that in India and Indonesia the level of human capital is cointegrated with the level of aggregate income during the whole 20th century, which confirms the theory of Lucas (1988). In Japan, however, the Lucasian approach can be verified only for the first half of the century, while after 1950 there is cointegration between the growth rate of aggregate income and the level of human capital, which is in line with Romer's view.     

New evidence about regional income divergence in China

There are many empirical studies trying to test if there is income convergence across the provinces of China. In this paper, we bring new information to the current literature by applying non-linear panel unit root test of Exponential Smooth Auto-Regressive Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ESTAR-ADF) unit root test developed by Cerrato et al. (2008) to the time series data for the period 1952–2003. The number of converging provinces decreases in the post-reform period when using panel ESTAR-ADF test. Furthermore, our results find evidence of increasing regional disparity that has been prevailing in China since the open door economic reforms of the late 1970s, which confirms the view of Pedroni and Yao (2006) that interprovincial inequalities have been widening since 1978.In addition, we also examine the determinants of conditional convergence in China. The results indicate that low inflation, transport and telecommunication infrastructure, and trade openness could stimulate economic growth in China. Human capital also play a significant role in growth, and it exhibits non-linearity between human capital and growth in the sense that at low levels of human capital the effect on growth is negative and became positive at middle levels.     

Understanding China's Economic Growth from a Regional Policy Perspective

There has been ongoing interest in China's economic growth. What were the drivers of China's economic growth in past years? What policies were used to promote China's economic growth? Although different lenses may be used to understand and explain China's economic growth, this paper draws on historical, theoretical, and empirical perspectives to discuss the nexus between China's regional policies and economic growth. First, we review the evolution of China's regional policy and the policy's changing emphasis in different development stages, from balanced, unbalanced, and coordinated development to synergistic development. Then we construct a theoretical model to illustrate the impact of regional policy on the local economy and conduct an empirical examination with a case study of regional policy using regression discontinuity design. This paper analyzes the concept of regional policy and the underpinning logic of economic growth and presents practical approaches to formulate a better regional policy framework.     

教育公共投入与收入差距的波及效应

在对城乡教育公共投入差异的分析基础上,运用卢卡斯的新经济增长理论框架,采用面板数据常用的固定效应模型估计人力资本及其外溢效应对城乡收入差异的影响。实证研究发现,人力资本对城乡收入增长均有较强的促进作用,且农村人力资本的产出弹性明显高于城市。但与城市相比,农村人力资本的外溢效应偏低,这在一定程度上拉大了业已存在的城乡差距。     

Religiosity and household income in Sekhukhune

Literature analysing the interrelation of religion and economic performance suggests religion to explain differences in household income. Religious communities foster economically conducive attitudes and are important sources of social capital, particularly under weak economic structures. This paper targets at investigating effects of religiosity on rural household income using survey data from Greater Sekhukhune in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. Using insights from religious studies within a conceptual framework of rural household decision-making, the authors estimate an income equation that includes measures for religious affiliation. While church membership per se does not reveal a significant effect on household income, the results show a positive and robust relationship for membership in the Zion Christian Church and the practice of African traditional religion.     

中国农村区域收入不均等变动：基于经济发展和制度变迁的解释

本文利用改革以来的中国省级农村居民收入数据,首先通过基尼系数和泰尔指数两个指标的测度,分析了中国农村区域收入不均等的变化趋势。结果发现,总体上持续扩大的农村区域收入不均等由工资性收入差异所主导,主要体现在东、中、西三大区域间。而基于收入决定因素的夏普利分解结果则进一步表明,改革后农村制度变迁的区域不一致所造就的农村经济的非农化进程、物质和人力资本积累水平等增长因素的分化是农村区域收入不均等变动的最主要根源。     

Technology Transfer,Income Distribution and the Process of Economic Development

This paper studies the role of income distribution and technology transfer in the process of economic development. A novel aspect of the model is that the composition of human capital as well as the level affect economic growth. Utilizing an overlapping-generations model in which income distribution changes endogenously, we present an economic explanation for why some countries could not start modern economic growth; why some countries took off but have apparently stopped growing after some time; and why some countries have successfully developed and continue to grow.     

区域保险业促进新疆跨越式发展的实证研究

本文以新疆保费收入和地区GDP数据为研究依据,选取样本区间为1980年-2009年,利用统计分析工具进行实证研究。得出：（1）新疆保险业发展与经济增长高度正相关;（2）保险业发展与经济增长之间存在由经济增长到保险业发展的格兰杰因果关系,即国民经济的快速发展有利于促进保险业发展;（3）新疆财产保险发展、人寿保险发展与经济增长存在正相关;（4）短期内财产保险、人寿保险都不是经济增长的Granger原因,但经济增长却是财产保险和人寿保险发展的Granger原因;从长期来看,人寿保险的增长可以带动经济的增长。     

Income Inequality,Taxation, and Growth

Much recent theoretical and empirical research has focused on the relationship between income distribution and economic growth. The fiscal policy approach argues that inequality is linked to pressure for redistributionary taxation, leading to low capital investment and, therefore, growth. Empirical analyses are consonant with this view in that the long-run relationship between inequality and growth is negative. However, several empirical inconsistencies with the fiscal policy approach do emerge: (a) there exists a short-run, positive relationship between income inequality and growth and (b) the relationship between inequality and taxation is mixed, at best. This paper presents a simple theoretical model that reconciles the intuitively appealing fiscal policy approach with the empirical findings.     

Political instability, policy uncertainty, and economic growth: An empirical investigation

This paper elaborates upon the effect of political stability on economic growth using a novel approach. Unlike the literature on growth that emphasizes the turnover of decision makers, this paper focuses on the volatility of economic policies as the relevant indicator of stability. The literature on growth ignores the microeconomic instability associated with frequent changes of government policies. The empirical results of this paper indicate that the effect of political instability on economic growth is not conclusive. Most of the commonly used proxies for political instability have failed to explain growth differences across countries. The political instability indices have no significant effect on growth when a reasonable set of core variables is also included in the regression equation. The results also show that almost all of the policy uncertainty variables are significantly and negatively correlated with economic growth. However, the instability of economic policies has no significant impact on the accumulation of capital.     

地区差距、产业聚集与经济增长:理论及来自广东省的证据

中国经济的高速增长和地区差距的不断拉大已经成为不可回避的现实问题。从现有文献看,以新古典框架来解释地区差距及其原因是目前我国学者采用的主要理论和方法。本文以新经济地理学理论为主要框架,从产业聚集与扩散的变化来研究由此而导致的经济增长效率的不同和地区差距的变化;并以广东省为案例,运用具体指标和Granger因果检验技术,从经验上证实了核心区域的产业聚集对整个广东省经济增长的拉动效应要明显强于边缘区域,同时也导致了地区差距的扩大。     

高收入国家与中等收入国家的能源密度差异的实证研究

本文依据1990年至2000年间中国和11个OECD国家的14个工业产业的样本数据,运用可乘对数的Divisia指数分解方法,实证分析了这些国家的能源密度变化特性,解释推动能源密度变化的主要因素。实证分析结果显示,所有中等收入国家在这期间都经历GDP的快速增长和能源密度的迅速下降。尽管能源密度降低速度较快,但是从总体水平上看,中等收入国家的能源密度同高收入国家还存在较大的差距。另外,无论是中等收入国家还是高收入国家,纯密度变化都是能源密度降低的最主要原因。而且中等收入国家的能源使用效率的提高与经济开放、工业私有化和市场自由化过程相关。     

中国区域经济收敛与地区差距的再检验

本文首先收集1985—2006年中国28个省市数据验证中国区域经济增长的条件β收敛和绝对β收敛,然后运用Blinder—Oaxaca分解方法来分析造成我国东部地区与中西部地区发展差距的原因。实证结果显示,我国自1985年来区域经济增长没有表现出收敛性。当我们将全国划分为东部地区和中西部地区后,我们发现东部地区经济增长收敛,而中西部地区经济增长不收敛。Blinder—Oaxaca分解结果显示,中西部地区与东部地区经济发展差距扩大的最主要原因是中西部地区实物资本投资不足。随着改革开放的深入,外商直接投资和开放程度在地区差距中发挥的作用越来越大,而教育和地理位置的优惠政策的作用则越来越小。     

国际人口迁移、信贷约束与人力资本积累

本文以收入不平等与经济增长的关系为基础,在信贷市场不完全的条件下,进一步考察了熟练劳动力跨国迁移对发展中国家人力资本积累及经济增长的影响。分析显示,基于跨国移民的"教育激励"效应对发展中国家的人力资本积累及经济增长的影响在短期和长期存在差异。短期中,基于跨国移民的"教育激励"效应会减缓"人才流失"效应对发展中国家人力资本积累及经济增长的负面影响,甚至可能会提高发展中国家熟练劳动力的比重,从而促进人均收入水平的提高。长期中,当代际转移收敛于稳态水平时,国际人口迁移不再具有"教育激励"效应,而国际人口迁移的"人才流失"效应则会继续损害人力资本积累,从而对发展中国家的人均收入产生负面影响。     

The impact of public investment on private investment spending in Latin America: 1980–95

This paper investigates the theoretical and empirical links between key economic variables and private spending in Latin America during 1980 to 1995. The empirical findings of this paper directly address the complementarity hypothesis which suggests that increases in public investment spending raise the marginal productivity of private capital, thereby inducing higher rates of private investment spending. This paper also addresses the issue of whether changes in the real exchange rate (expenditure-switching policies) have a deflationary effect on the economics of Latin America. The findings in this paper make an important contribution to the ongoing debate about which policies need to be promoted to raise and sustain the rate of private capital formation in Latin America—the region's future source of employment and income creation.     

The Role of Property Rights in the Relationship between Capital Flows and Economic Growth in SSA: Do Natural Resources Endowment and Country Income Level Matter?

This paper studies the role played by the quality of property rights in the linkages of international capital flows into sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies. Using panel data of 36 SSA countries over the period 1996–2015 and the ARDL procedure with the Pooled Mean Group regression method appropriate for non‐stationary panel data estimation, we account for the joint effects of property rights quality and openness to foreign capital flows on economic growth. We uncover the existence of a property rights quality threshold beyond which property rights either amplifies the spillovers effects or attenuates the negative effect of capital flows on economic growth. For instance, it takes a level of property rights of at least 60 to have a positive long‐term impact of capital flows on economic growth in natural resource‐poor African countries. The quality of property rights matters more to obtain spillover effects of capital flows on growth in natural resource‐poor countries than in their peer natural resource‐rich countries. Finally, with regard to the countries' income levels, capital flows have significant long‐term spillovers effects on economic growth in advanced African economies than in their low‐income peers.     

Multiple Forces Driving China＇s Economic Development： A New Analytic Framework

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised.     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.