Prospects for ASEAN-China Free Trade Area： A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area （.4 CFTA）, which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors： ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA ＇s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.     

Impact of Global Financial Crises on the Indonesian Economy： An Input-Output Analysis

The debt crisis in the European Union （EU） and the U.S. has significant potential impact on the economy of Indonesia. U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008 has a strong impact on Indonesian economy, that Indonesia＇s gross domestic product （GDP） slowed down to below 5% during 2009. Until October 2012, Indonesia＇s export growth is starting to grow negatively on some sectors when the crises in the EU and the U.S. have started or overall grew by -6%. Although the slowdown does not occur in all sectors, the impact spreads to other sectors as the existence of industrial linkage among sectors. The objective of the study is to look at the impact on the sector level on various indicators such as GDP （value added） and employment. Input-output analysis will be used in the simulation. Indonesia input-output table of 2005 is applied as the data base. The simulation results show that if exports decline occurs in the U.S., the economic growth will be -0.20%. Meanwhile, if it occurs in the EU, the growth of GDP will be -0.24%. If some Asian countries face the fall of demand of Indonesian export, GDP growth declines by 0.61%. The fall of exports demand from some Asian countries, EU countries and the U.S. will cause the GDP growth by -1.06%. The crisis occurring in both the US and the EU has decreased export demand from those countries and region including some Asian countries. The impact to employment seemed to be minimal, only -0.47% of total labour force.     

全面减免东盟关税对中国宏观经济和产业影响的可计算一般均衡分析

Chingem模型是一个中国静态CGE模型.本文在Chingem模型的基础上,分析了2010年中国全面减免东盟原六国关税对中国宏观经济和产业的长期影响.在原模型的基础上,改进了宏观闭合条件.将原来作为剩余量处理的居民消费与居民收入联系起来,使经济增长会作用到居民消费,使模拟结果更加符合实际.研究表明全面减免对东盟的关税有利于我国经济的和谐发展;减少了经济增长对净出口的依赖;促进了进、出口商品结构的升级;促进了服务业的发展,但农业和制造业的一些部门会受到负面影响;制造业的就业会下降,服务业和农业的就业会上升.