Must Governments Keep Bad Promises?

Governments can buy votes by mortgaging future tax revenue through promises of state pensions. The Thatcher Government's failure to rescind index-linked pensions for civil servants increases the potential tax burden on future generations. To buy today's votes with tomorrow's money is a promise government is not morally required to keep.     

Pensions: theories of underfunding

The widespread underfunding of private defined benefit pensions has generated concern over the viability of employers' promises of retirement benefits. Years ago, similar concerns led to the creation of pension benefit insurance plans by governments in the United States and a number of other countries. This paper studies the causes of underfunding in an environment without pension benefit insurance. We find that the optimal level of retirement benefits will be offered and fully funded if the employer has sufficient internal funds or is able to borrow all it needs. If loans are not enforceable, an employer with limited resources will generally underfund pensions. Further, if pension investments earn lower returns than other investments, pensions will be underfunded. Thus, the paper highlights the link between financial markets and the underfunding of pensions.     

Voting on public pensions with hands and feet

Aging changes the political power in a democracy in favor of the older generations. With free labor mobility like that of the EU, the success of the gerontocracy is, nevertheless, limited by migration of the young generations. This connection between political voting and voting with the feet is analyzed in a two-country model with overlapping generations. The interregional competition on public pensions yields premium payments which are larger when the young generations' migration decisions take the impact on future pensions into account (strategic migration) than when these decisions are made myopically. The paper also pays attention to migration (in-)efficiency and to the implications of harmonization principles. Received: November 1999 / Accepted: July 2001 RID="*" ID="*" The paper benefited greatly from discussions at the EEA conference in Santiago de Compostela, the CESifo Workshop on Public Pensions in Munich and seminars in G?ttingen, Mainz, and Tellow. We are grateful to many seminar participants, two anonymous referees of Economics of Governance and, in particular, to Paolo Manasse for their valuable comments and creative hints. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Property values and pension underfunding in the local public sector

This paper reexamines the empirical implication of the C. Tiebout (J. Pol. Econ.64, 416–424 (1956)) hypothesis, taking account of the fact that many municipal pensions are grossly underfunded. OLS results show that underfunding has no impact on local property values. The motives for incomplete funding of pensions are also examined and are built into a simultaneous equation model. The OLS results are confirmed and some light is shed on factors leading to the underfunding of pensions.     

Stochastic demographic forecasting

"This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary....Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented."     

The economic principles of pension provision

To examine pensions Samuelson's overlapping-generations model is generally used: its basic workings are set out here for an open economy. Pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) pensions are attractive when the rate of population growth exceeds the real rate of interest; then all generations are better off for the existence of the pension. The only cost is the income tax distortion. Once the rate of growth falls below the real interest rate, only the cost is left and it is better for the state to'fund'its pensions. If the state borrows to finance the transition to a funded system, it substitutes explicit debt for unfunded liabilities, which leaves its balance sheet unchanged; this avoids the problem of the existing young generation'paying twice'for its pensions.     

SAVINGS IN TIMES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE: LESSONS FROM THE GERMAN EXPERIENCE

Pension reforms in many developed countries make individuals shoulder a bigger share of longevity and income risks. The desired response is that individuals accumulate private assets for retirement. Whether this actually takes place, is of paramount relevance for scientists and policy makers. We take Germany as an example: Twenty years of pension reform have transformed the monolithic German pension system into a multipillar system. Formerly generous public pension benefits are gradually being reduced, whereas substantial incentives are granted to occupational and private saving schemes. Has this transition worked out? We survey the reform steps and households’ reactions: How did individuals adjust their labor market behavior? How did private and occupational pension plans take off? How do behavioral adjustments vary in the population? Most Germans adapted to the new situation. Both actual and expected retirement decisions changed and the share of households without supplementary pensions decreased from 73% to 39% in little more than a decade. This is a remarkable success. Nonetheless, households with low education, low income and less financial education did neither adjust their retirement behavior nor pick up supplementary pension plans and are thus likely to face difficulties in bridging the gap arising in future pension income.     

Complementary pensions in the European Union

In some countries of the European Union (EU) complementary pension schemes represent a major part of pension provision, whereas in others they play a relatively marginal role. An important factor is whether the social security scheme provides earnings-related benefits and whether the ceiling on eligible earnings for social security purposes leaves room for there to be a demand for supplementary pensions arrangements, in particular for the higher paid. Pressures on the financing of social security, especially with the expected ageing of the population in the first 30 years of the next century, are encouraging many countries to develop complementary provision, and a number of new pension laws have been passed in recent years. However, important though the growth of complementary provision is, it should not be forgotten that investment markets are also likely to be affected by the ageing of the population. There are increasing pressures for greater investment freedom for complementary pension schemes, but little progress has been made by the EU in harmonisation of the regulatory regimes for complementary pensions. If mobility of labour between the countries of the EU is to become a reality, progress needs to be made soon on these pensions issues.     

HOW TO CLEAR UP THE PENSIONS MESS

All three pillars of the British pensions system are crumbling. The basic state pension is unsustainable in its present form. Defined benefit occupational pension schemes are fast disappearing, and with them the retirement hopes of millions of workers. A further 3 million low-income earners are not saving enough for their retirement. And uncertainty about pensions choices is widespread. In each case the primary cause of the problem is governmental or regulatory failure. The paper makes eight general and four specific proposals for restoring the system.     

Employee bonding and turnover efficiency

This study explores how bonding contracts improve employee attraction and retention. These bonds are payment schemes tied to employment duration, such as the vesting of pensions and stock options. This study presents an employee turnover model in which only the worker knows their taste for their current job. This taste gives the current employer monopsonistic power, resulting in deadweight loss from excessive turnover. Bonding contracts serve as a commitment device for future wages and eliminate such deadweight loss, but only when the roles of bondholders and wage setters are separate. Firms that do this are more competitive to new hires. This model offers several empirical findings regarding a variety of common bonding practices.     

Can social security be welfare improving when there is demographic uncertainty?

This paper studies the welfare implications of a PAYG pension system in an overlapping generations (OLG) model with demographic uncertainty and incomplete markets. In the absence of public pensions, small cohorts tend to be favoured by the changes in relative prices implied by demographic shocks. PAYG defined-benefit systems can help to share the financial risks created by this type of demographic uncertainty across generations. Our careful quantitative analysis test this possibility with unfavourable results: the overall welfare impact of the public pensions is negative, due to the prominence of the crowding-out effect over the insurance effect.     

WHITHER UK PENSIONS POLICY?

While the UK may be facing much less serious pension difficulties over the next 50 years than other countries, the issue should not be ignored. Increasing the retirement age would be possible, but funded pensions are also an important option. The UK government has used marketing to encourage funded pensions, but policy changes would also help. Ultimately, the basic state pension could become funded.     

The public–private pension mix in OECD countries

This article provides a survey of selected aspects of the relationship between public and private pension provision in European countries in the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development and compares this with other regions of the OECD. Population ageing has led many OECD countries to undertake a wide range of pension reforms. The overall effect of these reforms has in many cases been to significantly reduce public pension promises. This, in turn, has increased the interest in the role of private pensions, which has expanded significantly in a number of OECD countries. The article discusses the extent to which a number of countries will need to further increase private provision in order to guarantee adequate future retirement incomes.     

Social expenditure cyclicality: New time-varying evidence in developing economies

This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures of cyclicality in social spending for an unbalanced panel of forty-five developing economies from 1982 to 2012. We focus on four categories of government social expenditure: health, social protection, pensions, and education. We find that in developing countries social spending has been acyclical over time, with the exception of spending on pensions. However, sample averages hide marked heterogeneity across countries, with many individually showing procyclical behavior in different social spending categories. The use of time-varying measures of social spending cyclicality overcomes the major limitation of previous studies in assessing the drivers of fiscal cyclicality that rely solely on cross-country regressions and, therefore, cannot account for country-specific as well as global factors. Using weighted least squares regressions, we find that the degree of social spending (pro)cyclicality is negatively associated with financial deepening, the level of economic development, trade openness, government size, and political constraints on the executive.     

EQUAL TREATMENT DIRECTIVE MISUNDERSTANDS RISK AND THREATENS INSURANCE MARKETS

The Equal Treatment Directive, which will come into force on 21 December 2007, aims to outlaw'discrimination' between men and women in the calculation of insurance premiums, is founded upon a fallacious understanding of the nature of actuarial calculations and the morality of'discriminatory' calculations where state provision of insurance has traditionally been 'non-discriminatory'. The Equal Treatment Directive will have perverse consequences contrary to the aims of its creators - benefiting the better-off at the expense of the poor and, in some circumstances, men at the expense of women - and will also threaten the private provision of pensions and healthcare essential to solving the looming pensions and healthcare funding crisis among EU member states.     

UK pension policy: world leader turning laggard?

Too much is made of the 'problem' of an ageing population. The real problem in pensions provision is state pay-as-you-go. Private assets of secure title are the best route to financial independence in retirement.     

基于资金净值的个人账户养老金动态调整研究

为了建立一个既能自动实现平衡,又能充分发挥养老功能的个人账户养老金调整机制,本文根据精算平衡原理,基于个人账户的资金净值构建养老金的动态调整模型。研究表明,本模型能够自动修正预测偏差,自动实现精算平衡,且具內生性;不仅可以在总量上保持平衡,最大程度发挥养老功能,而且每年的支付能力也是充足的;具有稳健性和可操作性,对调整因子等价转换后,调整养老全时就不要对参数进行预测了。     

ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF WORKERS’ RETIREMENT DECISIONS

The landscape for older workers has changed dramatically in recent decades. Governments have made cuts to public pension programs, private pensions have shifted from defined benefit to defined contribution plans, equity and housing markets have been unusually volatile, and workers have experienced declining morbidity and mortality. At the same time, the labor force participation rate for older men and women has been rising over the past two decades, implying later retirement. Are these phenomena related? This paper reviews the large and growing body of literature exploring the economic determinants of workers’ retirement decisions, including public and private pensions, wealth and savings, health and health insurance, and labor demand.     

Making provision for ageing populations

Low birth rates and longer life spans are increasing the proportion of elderly people in most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. In some European countries, present birth rate trends could soon lead to a downturn in the size of the total population and in the number of working age people, exacerbating the problem of financing pensions, health care, and welfare services for the aged. This article examines the question of how social policies need to be adapted now to meet the demographic problems expected early next century. Per capita spending for the elderly is 2-4 times higher than for the young. A low birth rate will therefore not make up the increase in costs accompanying the aging of the population.     

LIBROS

Book reviewed in this issue. Reassembling social security. A survey of pensions and health care reforms in Latin America. Por Carmelo MESA‐LAGO.