Transmission lags and optimal monetary policy

The credibility problems of monetary policy are enlarged by transmission lags whenever the welfare criterion consists of arguments with differing transmission lags. If, as usually argued, prices react to monetary policy with a longer lag than output, the discretionary bias is substantially increased under a consumer welfare maximizing policy criterion (flexible inflation targeting) in the prototype New Keynesian model. Money growth targeting can significantly reduce the discretionary bias, but is not robust to other specifications of welfare with higher valuation of output stability.     

Investment with an arithmetic process and lags

This paper presents an explicit solution of a simple investment problem with entry lags and when the underlying stochastic process is arithmetic. It is shown that, without abandonment, the optimal investment plan is independent of the length of the lag. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rational and polynomial lags: The finite connection

This article demonstrates that, for a finite distributed lag, the polynomial distributed lag (PDL) approximation suggested by Almon is a special case of the rational lag method formalized by Jorgenson. The proof relies upon the fact that the PDL estimator imposes differencing restrictions upon the parameters while rational lag methods impose quasi-differncing restrictions. Because of this relationship, the PDL restrictions are nested inside the rational lag ones, and this provides for a sequence of tests to discriminate between the two. An example is performed and an appendix describes an asymptotically efficient two-step estimator.     

On lags and chaos in economic dynamic models

This paper discusses the role of lags in dynamic economic models. Applications of discrete dynamical systems to economics are considered and the shortcomings of their (implicit) treatment of lags are criticized. An abstract, probabilistic view of lags is then provided, within which fixed delay lags are shown to be a special case. A basic equivalence is proved between: (i) a system with an indefinitely large number of agents, reacting to inputs with randomly gamma distributed, discrete lags, and (ii) a system with one single ‘representative‘ agent reacting to inputs with a continuous, multiple exponential lag. Finally, the paper analyses a single-loop feedback system cuopling a multiple exponential lag and a non-linearity of the one-hump type. The dynamic behavior of the system is studied by means of analytical and numerical methods, and the conditions for periodic and chaotic solutions are investigated.     

An analysis of publication lags in econometrics

This note describes the lengthening in publication lags for econometric papers in seven journals since 1986 and briefly considers ways of shortening them.     

International borrowing without commitment and informational lags: Choice under uncertainty

A series of recent studies in economic growth theory have considered a class of models of international borrowing where, in the absence of a perfect investment commitment, the borrowing constraint depends on the historical performances of the country. Thus, a better level of past economic activity gives a higher reputation, thereby increasing the possibility of accessing the international credit market. This note considers this problem in a stochastic setting based on the volatility of the internal net capital. We study how the optimal consumption level and the maximal expected welfare depend on the combined influence of the trajectory of past economic variables and the volatile environment. In particular, we show how the strength of the history effect and the relative weight of the historical performance depend on the degree of risk.     

知识产权平行进口的立法研究及保护

文章对平行进口问题从其概念、特征、形成原因及理论基础上进行了分析,并且对它涉及知识产权的各个方面,在专利权、商标权和版权等领域具有不同的特点进行了讨论。各国政府在立法与实践上都有所不同,如何应对平行进口问题,是我国建立与国际惯例接轨的高水平法制的重要议题,另外,针对我国实践中平行进口的问题还提出了应采取的法律对策。     

我国绿色物流发展滞后性的经济学分析及对策

诸多文献对我国绿色物流发展滞后性的分析结论,大都停留在:绿色物流实现的技术落后、绿色物流思想还没有深入人心,诸如此类。该结论只是我国绿色物流发展的现状,却不是使其滞后的原因。根据外部性原理,惟有规避了3PL负的外部性;同时引致出绿色物流供给的内生偏好,才能有效实现我国物流绿色演进的可持续性。因此,如何从外部性原理出发,构建3PL自觉实现绿色物流的制度安排,便构成了文中探析的技术路线。     

Delivery lags and buffer stocks in the theory of investment by the firm

This paper contains a dynamic model of a firm holding a stock of unfilled orders for output while facing a fixed delivery lag attached to acquiring new capital goods. The model leads to a two-stage optimal control problem where the initial time interval corresponds to the Marshallian short-run and the second interval is the period during which deliveries of capital goods may arrive. Optimality criteria are provided for both time intervals and the behavior of the firm is characterized along both adjustment paths. The short-run decisions of the firm are shown to be tied to long-run decisions planned by the firm.     

Optimum tariff on imports from imperfectly competitive labor-managed firms

This paper develops a model of international trade between a labor-managed economy and a capitalist economy and examines the short- and long-run optimal specific tariff in the presence of foreign imperfect competition among labor-managed firms. It will be shown that the underlying conditions for the optimal tariff rule are different from conventional wisdom.     

好项目缘何没有好效益--河南煤气化工程透视

投资22亿的河南省煤气化工程,是为提高人民生活水平、减少环境污染、合理利用能源而建设的一项公益性、基础性环保工程。该工程从立项到2001年竣工投产历时16年,期间燃气市场供求发生重大变化,但项目决策者和建设单位仍坚持按原定规划进行建设,致使项目建成后只能按设计供气能力的一半运行,试运行即陷入亏损经营陷入严重困境,仅2002年度就亏损2亿多元。2003年审计署驻郑州特派员办事处在对河南省国债项目审计时发现,该项目不但因单系列运转造成部分国有资产投资效益未能充分发挥,而且因项目达不到规模效益而亏损巨大,资金严重短缺,致使项目…     

Home bias and U.S. imports of processed food products

This article estimates the degree of home bias for U.S. imported food products using an Armington model (Armington, 1969), and then assesses some of its determinants. Empirical results indicate that a very strong bias toward domestic products significantly limits foreign imports of the same type of products, and that without home bias, imports would increase several-fold. The degree of home bias is found to be higher in industries with co-location of raw agricultural production, delivery of mostly finished rather than intermediate food products, protection by high non-tariff barriers, and importation from neighboring countries (Mexico and Canada).     

The economic sustainability of optimizing feedstock imports with environmental constraints

The energetic crisis jeopardizes the safety of nations and people in multiple ways. In addressing the problem of commodity production out of feedstock imports, an eco-environmentally rational agent aims at minimizing the cost of feedstock imports and their increasingly expensive transportation, but also the water footprint of the feedstock production process and the water scarcity in the exporting countries. This implies the need for more accurate feedstock import strategies, that account for the increased multiplicity of factors at play. This study proves the existence of solutions and quantitatively demonstrates that transportation costs and non-uniform feedstock characteristics inhibit feedstock interchangeability, by solving a novel nonlinear program that accounts for the complexity of the factors at play. Moreover, it is shown that the interplay between water footprint and water scarcity across countries can inhibit or foster feedstock interchangeability. Model validation strategies and a sensitivity analysis complete the study.     

Bayesian estimation and model selection for spatial Durbin error model with finite distributed lags

In this paper we investigate a spatial Durbin error model with finite distributed lags and consider the Bayesian MCMC estimation of the model with a smoothness prior. We study also the corresponding Bayesian model selection procedure for the spatial Durbin error model, the spatial autoregressive model and the matrix exponential spatial specification model. We derive expressions of the marginal likelihood of the three models, which greatly simplify the model selection procedure. Simulation results suggest that the Bayesian estimates of high order spatial distributed lag coefficients are more precise than the maximum likelihood estimates. When the data is generated with a general declining pattern or a unimodal pattern for lag coefficients, the spatial Durbin error model can better capture the pattern than the SAR and the MESS models in most cases. We apply the procedure to study the effect of right to work (RTW) laws on manufacturing employment.     

Performance evaluation using data envelopment analysis in the presence of time lags

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a methodology that computes efficiency values for decision making units (DMU) in a given period by comparing the outputs with the inputs. In many applications, inputs and outputs of DMUs are monitored over time. There might be a time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. We develop an approach that aims to capture the time lag between the outputs and the inputs in assigning the efficiency values to DMUs. We propose using weight restrictions in conjunction with the model. Our computational results on randomly generated problems demonstrate that the developed approach works well under a large variety of experimental conditions. We also apply our approach on a real data set to evaluate research institutions.     

Tradable and non-tradable expenditure and aggregate demand for imports in an emerging market economy

Using an assumption of non-separability of non-tradable expenditure from imports, this paper examines the impact of the structural transformation undertaken after 2001 on imports and, in turn, the current account stance of Turkey. In this regard, an import demand function is derived under the assumption of non-separability, and is estimated using quarterly time series data from Turkey. The empirical results show that the assumption of non-separability cannot be rejected in the case of Turkey and the relative prices of non-tradable and tradable goods must be among the determinants of import demand in addition to the relative price of imports and real GDP. This result accordingly implies that recent increases in import expenditure are, to some extent, due to changes in the relative price structure in favour of non-tradable goods.     

Role of tariffs,imports substitution and investment efficiency in economic growth of Pakistan

Quality & Quantity - This paper explores the impact of tariffs, imports substitution and investment efficiency on economic growth in Pakistan. For this purpose, secondary data was collected...     

Evaluating Californian under‐age drunk driving laws: endogenous policy lags

When evaluating the effectiveness of a policy, most studies assume that the policy effect begins with the date of enactment. However, there often exists an endogenous policy lag, due to information acquisition and the cost of adjustment. Meanwhile, the policy impact may be a gradual implementation from one level to another, instead of a one‐time shift behavior. To account for these issues when evaluating the Californian under‐age drunk driving laws, this paper adopts two econometric techniques: the multiple structural change methodology and the smooth transition method. The methods detect two effective policy changes and also reveal the existence of policy lags. In addition, ignoring these lags leads to severely biased estimates of policy effects. A long transition period is identified for the first under‐age drunk driving policy, while an abrupt transition is found for the other. In summary, the paper shows that the two econometric techniques complement each other and will be useful for policy evaluation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.