欧洲货币联盟设计中的缺陷

欧债危机暴露了欧洲货币联盟运作机制的设计缺陷:财政纪律松散、金融监管失当和欧洲央行角色定位存在偏差。危机也为欧元区矫正缺陷提供了改革契机。强化财政纪律有两种思路,制定新的"财政条约"和采取"宪制安排";提高监管效率的改革理念是实施金融监管集中化;欧洲央行应将金融稳定作为主要目标,并承担最后贷款人的角色。文章对上述理念进行了评述,指出除此之外欧盟需要开展更加广泛和深刻的改革。     

欧版量化宽松,越赌越大

面对愈演愈烈的欧洲主权债务危机和流动性危机,欧洲央行的政策立场正在逐步软化。日前,欧洲央行宣布再次启动期限长达三年的长期再融资计划(LTRO),同时敦促欧洲银行提出贷款申请以满足其贷款需求。这被视为欧洲央行为缓解欧元区金融体系所承受的严峻压力而做出的新努力之一,LTRO试图依靠银行来重建欧元区债券市场的稳定性,但这很可能形成一个新的风险循环。     

媒体速览

正德国央行行长魏德曼:欧元危机并没远离我们尽管近来欧洲债券市场已经归于平静,许多人都认为欧元危机已经结束,但德国央行行长魏德曼却告诫说,危机结束的边界仍旧不明晰,改革仍需继续。魏德曼认为,面对欧元危机,欧洲央行已竭尽所能来制定合理的货币政策,来让欧元恢复到正确的道路上,但是要想做出正确的决定依旧很难,因为危机并没有离我们远去,尽管当前的金融市场保持着平静。对于近期欧洲央行做出决定将欧元基准利     

我国最后贷款人制度若干问题研究

最后贷款人制度作为金融安全网的三大支柱之一,具有不可替代的地位,在我国银行业经营过程中起事中监督作用。当前,我国的最后贷款人制度仍存在最后贷款人职责不十分明确、操作的法律依据不清晰等缺陷。为了有效提高银行业危机应对能力与效率,我国需要从法律上确立明确的最后贷款人救助规则和建设性模棱两可原则,同时完善相关的配套措施。     

论我国收入债券市场发展——美国经验启示

尽管市政债券在我国还属于一块空白,但在发达的证券市场上已经发展为极为成熟的金融工具。我国的市政债券市场的发展可以以收入债券作为突破口,一方面可以为地方政府开辟一条重要的融资渠道,另一方面,也丰富了可供投资者选择的金融工具。本文首先对美国收入债券的基本原理与运作模式进行深入分析,再进行地方收入债券危机规避的推算,最后结合我国法律制度和财政制度探讨我国收入债券市场发展的可行性。     

东亚金融货币合作:短期、中期和长期

提高东亚区域金融货币合作的效率,区分短期、中期和长期的合作内容是重要的。本文认为,在目前阶段,东亚地区仍应将金融货币合作的重点放在地区最后贷款人和紧急援助机制的建立和完善上,中期合作的重点是发展地区资本市场特别是长期债券市场,而东亚货币汇率合作只能留待更长远的未来去实现。一、时间视角下的金融货币合作1997―1998年东亚货币危机以来,东亚地区出现了一股区域金融货币合作的热情。这种热情的主要背景是东亚货币危机的教训和防止未来货币危机再次发生的意愿。此外,欧洲货币一体化的成功也激发了东亚各国金融与货币合作的愿望,…     

美国次贷危机中中央银行最后贷款人的作用

最后贷款人是中央银行维护金融稳定的一项核心制度，向暂时出现流动性困难、而处于非破产边缘的金融机构提供紧急援助的一种制度安排。本文首先简要概述了美联储最后贷款人的常规救助措施，然后分析美联储在救助危机中创新的表现，并阐述其政策效果。     

中央银行的道德风险

自美国次贷危机爆发以来,各国央行输血救市的新闻不绝于耳.对此.市场反应大体是积极的.作为最后贷款人,中央银行在金融机构出现流动性危机以致危及整个金融市场时出手救援自然是份内之事.但质疑的声音也从未平息,用纳税人的钱去拯救投机失败的金融巨鳄是不是劫贫济富呢?即使是那些濒临破产的金融机构CEO,仍然可以拿到不菲的薪金或离职补偿,而普通纳税人却为他们的错误埋单.很多自由派的经济学家反对救市,主要原凶就是所谓的"道德风险".     

基于危机生命周期理论的政府新媒体传播策略研究

如何快速解决危机,树立政府形象,保障国泰民安,是政府迫切需要解决的问题。在新媒体环境下,民众在危机的不同阶段对危机感知的心理和信息需求也有差异,因此,政府需要对危机事件进行动态分析、判断和应对。在危机潜伏期,应当预防与监测并重;在危机爆发期,应当统一口径发布真实信息;在危机扩散期,应当合力开展工作、积极辟谣;在危机平复期,应当反思危机、修复政府形象。文章对基于危机生命周期理论的政府新媒体传播策略进行了研究。     

大爆炸还是小打小闹?

欧洲央行终于祭出大招 千呼万唤始出来!欧洲央行终于在新年伊始不负众望推出量化宽松.所谓量化宽松(Quantitative Easing),简称QE,是一种货币政策,主要指各国央行通过公开市场购买政府债券、银行金融资产等做法.量化宽松直接导致市场的货币供应量增加,可视为变相“印钞”.市场流动性的改善可降低利息,而低息又为实体经济发展提供了优越的融资环境,因此美国爆发金融危机后,美联储推出多轮量化宽松借此刺激经济发展.     

Transforming Central Bank Liabilities into Government Debt: The Case of China

Where policy has substantially increased central bank assets, the corresponding liabilities present an opportunity to increase the breadth, depth and liquidity of the government bond market. In China's case, transformed illiquid central bank liabilities could double or triple the stock of government bonds. Central bank liabilities can be transformed into government bonds either through the government's purchase of foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank or by the government overfunding its borrowing requirement and depositing the proceeds in the central bank. The overfunding approach is preferred if, for financial stability reasons, it is judged prudent to leave the central bank with sufficient resources to serve itself as lender of last resort in foreign currency to the banking system. In the case of China, public debt consolidation could also contribute to further liberalizing the Chinese banking system, wider international use of the renminbi and more balanced holdings of key currency government bonds.     

Great crashes in history: have they lessons for today?

Crashes in asset markets have been common throughout history,while financial crises, defined as crises in the banking system,have in some countries and periods been as common, and in othersmuch more rare. This article examines historical attitudes tothose events, and looks at some of the events themselves. Itis concluded first, that crashes need not inevitably be followedby crises; second, that crashes without crises do not have seriouseffects on the economy; and third, that there is a policy instrument,the lender of last resort, to prevent financial crises fromoccurring even should there be a substantial preceding fallin asset markets. These lessons from history, so it is argued,hold for recent events in South-east Asia and, indeed, applygenerally to any economy. The present can still learn from thepast.     

The ‘Visible Hand’ of the ECB’s first quantitative easing

Quantitative easing à la ECB has produced significant impact on long-term nominal rates through ex ante channels, such as signalling channels, term duration channels, and risk premia channels, well before it materially started. Ex post difference-in-differences estimation suggests a significant impact on long-term government bond yields, while the impact of the ECB’s first QE on the key inflation rate is very weak. The term duration channel may also lead to a lengthening of the average maturity of government debts, with possible implications for fiscal policy. The ECB’s determination to buy government bonds in a fragmented market with a low net supply is also producing an ex post impact, i.e. during the actual asset purchases. High rates volatility suggests that this impact is less on nominal rates and more on financial plumbing. As the effects of scarce supply in collateral markets are felt, repo rates remain well below zero. Low supply and limited re-usability of high quality collateral, capped by regulatory requirements, is an additional constraint on market liquidity and compresses dealers’ balance sheets. By keeping a depressed yield curve and asset prices high, QE is also accelerating the consolidation of both traditional and capital-market based (dealer) bank business models, raising questions about implications for global collateral flows and deposit-like funding channels.     

我国商业银行的特殊性对其公司治理的影响分析

目前,对商业银行公司治理的研究常忽略了商业银行公司治理的特殊性,导致商业银行局部面临较大的风险和整个银行体系的脆弱性。文章从资本结构、委托—代理关系、资本市场并购机制、存款保险和中央银行最后贷款人制度、政府管制和分支机构管理六个方面分析商业银行特殊性对其公司治理影响。认为商业银行公司治理不仅要保护股东和债权人的利益,也应该照顾到所有利益相关者,同时还须考虑到整个金融系统和宏观经济的安全稳定。     

Bagehot for beginners: the making of lender‐of‐last‐resort operations in the mid‐nineteenth century1

In this article we develop new tools to survey the development of lending‐of‐last‐resort operations in the mid‐nineteenth century. One finding is that free lending and extensive liquidity support against good collateral developed gradually after 1847, and was already a fact of life before Bagehot published Lombard Street. Another is that the extension of the Bank of England's lender‐of‐last‐resort function went along with a reduction of its exposure to default risks, in contrast with accounts that have associated lending of last resort with moral hazard. Finally, we provide a new interpretation of the ‘high rates’ advocated by Bagehot. We suggest they were meant to prevent banks from free‐riding on the safety offered by the central bank, and were aimed at forcing them to keep lending during crises so as to maintain a critical degree of liquidity in the money market.     

From Bagehot to Brussels: A Review of Which Lender of Last Resort for Europe (Charles A. E. Goodhart,ed.)

Open Economies Review - This article reviews Which Lender of Last Resort for Europe (Charles A.E. Goodhart, ed.). This book addresses the role and functioning of a lender of last resort within the...     

国际货币基金组织的改革动因及目标评述

本文从国际货币基金组织(IMF)的宗旨、职能以及运作机理出发,剖析了IMF职责与权能间的内生冲突,并从IMF的内部控制权问题、最后贷款人角色、对危机的预警和挽救功能、特别提款权的困境与改革以及IMF的监督和磋商机制等五个方面对国际货币基金组织亟需改革的动因和目标进行了较为全面的评述。     

Risks,Resilience, and Reforms: Indonesia’s Financial System in 2019

Indonesia has managed the complex challenges of the global economy well. The country's capital outflows were smaller in 2018 than during the Taper Tantrum in 2013; the rupiah had regained most of its lost ground by January 2019; the Indonesian stock market has outperformed its peers; growth is forecast to remain stable; inflation is low; unemployment remains below its five-year average; consumer and business confidence are robust; and the government budget has improved through a smaller deficit and cheaper borrowing costs. But significant risks remain. This paper assesses these risks and evaluates the adequacy of Indonesia's crisis management framework. It finds that the framework has serious deficiencies that could see liquidity challenges become systemic solvency crises. The framework effectively removes Bank Indonesia as the lender of last resort, risks politicising the process of crisis response, and could mean slower, less effective responses to crises. This paper explores how the framework could be improved and what reforms could be undertaken to deepen Indonesia's financial system, strengthen financial resilience, and boost the long-term growth outlook.     

后危机时代的流动性过剩与全球流动性管理

金融危机过后全球再次出现了流动性过剩的局面,给金融稳定造成了负面影响。由IMF前总裁康德苏牵头、包括中国央行官员在内的18人研究小组于2011年初发表了关于国际货币体系改革的倡议书《康德苏报告》,提出IMF承担全球最后贷款人职能和建立全球监督机制,以此作为全球流动性管理的重要手段。经济全球化和金融市场的非理性、非线性特征使得全球最后贷款人具有重大价值。中国应当积极推动IMF承担最后贷款人职能,并逐步推进全球监督机制的建立,这不仅有助于国际金融稳定,而且将提升中国在国际货币体系当中的话语权,从而更好地维护中国自身的利益。