Nonfundamental Speculation Revisited

We show that a linear pure strategy equilibrium may not exist in the model of Madrigal (1996), contrary to the claim of the original paper. This is because Madrigal's characterization of a pure strategy equilibrium omits a second‐order condition. If the nonfundamental speculator's information about noise trading is sufficiently precise, a linear pure strategy equilibrium fails to exist. In parameter regions where a pure strategy equilibrium does exist, we identify a few calculation errors in Madrigal (1996) that result in misleading implications.     

Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates Revisited

This paper shows that small changes in even slightly negative discount rates can cause substantial changes in present value. Small changes in the discount rate, which may seem appropriate, turn out to have huge effects on present value and are not economically justified. This paper also points out problems associated with large negative discount rates. It is shown that the present value can become discontinuous as the discount rate is lowered and that the present value of the risky cash outflows becomes erratic depending on whether the outflow is discounted an even or odd number of periods.     

Credibility for Severity Revisited

Abstract

It is basic actuarial knowledge that the pure premium of an insurance contract can be written as the product of the expected claim number and the expected claim amount. Actuaries use credibility theory to incorporate the contract’s individual experience into this calculation in a statistically optimal way. For many years, however, the use of credibility was limited to the frequency component. Starting with the paper by Hewitt (1971), there have been various suggestions as to how credibility theory also can be applied to the severity component of the pure premium. The latest such suggestion, Frees (2003), revived the interest in the problem.

In this paper, we review four different formulas incorporating frequency and severity into credibility calculations. We then compare by simulation which one is most accurate at predicting a contract’s next-year outcome. It is found that the classical formula of Bühlmann (1967) is as good as the other ones in many cases. Alternatives, however, may offer easier analysis of the separate effects of frequency and severity on the premium.

We also show that all the formulas reviewed in this paper stem from the same minimization problem, and we present a general, integrated, solution. At the same time, we complete Gerber (1972) by providing a proof to the main result of this paper and by stating required additional assumptions.     

汇率目标制、货币目标制和通货膨胀目标制的比较及其在我国的应用的探讨

汇率目标制、货币目标制在各自的经济背景下都起到了稳定一国通货、稳定汇率从而稳定一国物价总水平、促进经济增长的作用。起始于20世纪80年代末期,通货膨胀目标制代替汇率目标制、货币目标制成为许多国家追逐长期价格稳定的一种货币政策新框架,在取得长期价格稳定和金融稳定上具有更多优点和灵活性。我国金融开放条件下货币政策调控面临国内货币需求不稳定,内部、外部经济不平衡,金融不平衡等问题,在货币目标制和汇率目标制难以实现货币政策有效调控的情况下,建议应对我国的货币政策调控方式做出调整,采用通货膨胀目标制的货币政策框架。     

The Pay Review Bodies Revisited

The annual reports of the independent Pay Review Bodies are a key economic event in Britain, covering approximately 1.5 million public sector workers with an annual paybill approaching £50 billion in 2003. The 2003–04 reports are studied in this article. The author concludes that the reports followed quite closely what the Government wanted and in contrast to previous years proposed lower, essentially 'cost of living', awards. The rationale for this is examined for each of the Review Bodies; the article finds that in general the awards reflected the circumstances reported in evidence to the Review Bodies and squared up with their terms of reference. It is, however, too early to say whether the reports marked a long-term turning point towards lower, RPI-related awards and away from the general 'upward' trend evident since 1998.     

"通货膨胀目标法"

一种货币政策框架 在强有力的经验实证支持下,学者、决策者和其他相关人士在以下问题上达成了共识,即高通货膨胀(及其相关的易变性)扭曲了私营部门在投资、储蓄和生产方面的决策,最终将导致经济增长率下降.     

Targeting Outcomes Redux

A newly constructed comprehensive database of 122 targeted antipovertyinterventions in 48 countries is used to examine the contestedissue of the efficacy of targeting interventions in developingcountries. Though the median program transfers 25 percent moreto poor individuals (those in the bottom two quintiles) thanwould universal allocation, a quarter of the interventions areregressive. Targeting is better in richer countries, in countrieswhere governments are more likely to be held accountable, andin countries where inequality is higher. Interventions thatuse means testing, geographic targeting, and self-selectionbased on a work requirement are all associated with an increasedshare of benefits going to poor people. Proxy-means testing,community-based selection, and demographic targeting to childrenshow good results on average but with wide variation. Self-selectionbased on consumption, demographic targeting to the elderly,and community bidding show limited potential for good targeting.The substantial variation in targeting performance within specificprogram types and specific targeting methods suggests that differencesin implementation are also important factors in determiningthe success of targeting to poor individuals.      

Spacek's Contributions to Accounting Thought Revisited

While he was managing partner and chair of Arthur Andersen in the l950s and 1960s, Leonard Spacek was an outspoken critic of public accounting, complaining about its failure to establish a coherent set of objectives for financial statements, its illogical principles and methods, and its principle-setting process. He was the conscience of the public accounting community during this time period, a critic from within. As far as Spacek was concerned, 'fairness' was the central objective of financial reporting, though he never specifically defined the term. In light of the recent high-profile corporate and accounting scandals, including Enron and World.com, both of which were audited by Arthur Andersen, it is useful to analyse Spacek's ideas on the public role of accounting from his speeches and writings with emphasis on the theme of fairness. Given the firm's long-term commitment to quality audits, it was ironic that Andersen fell victim to these scandals.     

CEO Compensation and Board Structure Revisited

Chhaochharia and Grinstein estimate that CEO pay decreases 17% more in firms that were not compliant with the recent NYSE/Nasdaq board independence requirement than in firms that were compliant. We document that 74% of this magnitude is attributable to two outliers of 865 sample firms. In addition, we find that the compensation committee independence requirement increases CEO total pay, particularly in the presence of effective shareholder monitoring. Our evidence casts doubt on the effectiveness of independent directors in constraining CEO pay as suggested by the managerial power hypothesis.     

Black-Scholes Revisited: Some Important Details

The traditional derivation of the Black-Scholes formula is mathematically unsatisfactory. In this paper, the problems associated with the traditional derivation are pointed out and an alternative, more rigorous derivation is presented.     

Portfolio Selection with Quadratic Utility Revisited

Considering a simple portfolio selection problem by agents with quadratic utility, an apparently counterintuitive outcome results. When such a choice is over two assets that can be ordered in terms of riskiness, an agent that is more risk averse may optimally invest a larger portion of wealth in the riskier asset. It is shown that such an outcome is not counterintuitive, since for the portfolios from which agents optimally choose, a larger proportion of investment in the riskier asset leads to a less risky portfolio.     

Targeting Social Assistance

This paper reviews the normative welfare economic literature on income‐based targeting and contrasts its assumptions with those underlying current policy discourse. One current policy debate concerns the potential role for Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) income tests. In general, economic models within the standard (for economists) ‘welfarist’ approach provide little support for such policies. However, much policy discourse is explicitly non‐welfarist, placing a negative social value on the leisure or home production of the poor. From this perspective, EITC or workfare‐type programmes may be socially optimal. The normative foundations of this policy discourse, however, have yet to be subject to the rigorous analysis that underlies the welfarist approach.     

Dealing with Time Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting versus Exchange Rate Targeting

Adopting a single instead of multiple targets can be an effective way to overcome the classic time‐inconsistency problem. The choice of a single mandate depends on the trade openness and the credibility. Reduced‐form empirical results show as central banks become less credible, they are more likely to adopt a pegged exchange rate, and the tendency to peg depends on trade openness. In a model with “loose commitment,” as credibility falls, either an inflation target or a pegged exchange rate is more likely to be adopted. A relatively closed (highly open) economy would adopt an inflation target (exchange rate peg).     

IES 4 — Ethics Education Revisited

In 2003, the International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) issued a set of International Education Standards (IES). IES 4 Professional Values, Ethics and Attitudes aims to equip candidates for membership of an IFAC member body with the appropriate professional values, ethics and attitudes to function as professional accountants. This paper explores the implications of IES 4 and analyses some of the challenges arising from an international professional accounting body prescribing ethics education. It concludes with an overview of considerations to be addressed to ensure that the implementation of IES 4 is successful .     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited

More than 50 years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of procyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia monetary aggregates are used in place of the Federal Reserve's official, simple‐sum measures. When we use information in Divisia money to estimate a structural vector autoregression, identified monetary policy shocks appear to have large and persistent effects on output and prices, with a lag that has lengthened considerably since the early 1980s.