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国际股票市场收益率和波动率的长记忆性研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
股票市场长记忆性问题是金融学研究的一个热点问题,对于市场有效性的研究和系统非线性结构的分析有着重要的意义。本文运用修正R/S分析和V/S分析两种方法对世界上28个国家(地区)的股票指数的日、周收益序列和日、周收益波动序列进行了完整的长记忆性研究。结果表明:对于收益序列,以美国为代表的大多数发达国家股市一般不存在长记忆性,而中国等发展中国家大多存在显著的长记忆性,尤其中国股市的长记忆性最强;对于收益波动序列,所有国家(地区)都具有长记忆性,并强于收益序列。 相似文献
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现有研究运用经典和修正R/S分析探讨我国股票市场的长期记忆效应。本文运用更为稳健的V/S分析,对比研究上证股市和另外7个国家和地区的股票市场,分别诊断各股市日收益和周收益、及三种典型度量的收益波动的长期记忆效应。研究表明:股市日收益和周收益序列都不存在显著的长期记忆;三种典型度量的收益波动普遍存在显著的长期记忆;日收益波动比周收益波动的长期记忆更显著。 相似文献
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通过对我国上证基金指数的日收益率序列的基本统计分析发现,收益率序列存在尖峰厚尾性,不服从正态分布.但杠杆效应不显著,而且收益率和方差都具有显著的长记忆性.由此建立ARFIMA-FLAPAECH-skt模型来计算基金指数的在险价值VaR,并对结果进行实证检验,结果显示相对于不考虑波动率长记忆性的ARFIMA-APARCH模型.ARFIMA-FLAPAECH-skt模型在1%及更低的显著水平上对于多头和空头计算VaR可以得到较好的度量结果. 相似文献
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对于有效市场假说的检验而言,股票市场收益的长记忆性有着特别重要的意义。通常使用的长记忆性研究方法有经典R/S分析、修正R/S分析与对数周期图法等。本文根据实际情况,使用了修正R/S分析和V/S分析方法,有效的分析和研究了世界上31个国家的股票市场收益的长记忆性。通过分析研究的结果可以得出:对于大多数发达国家而言,其股市很少存在长记忆性,,而印度等发展中国家,存在比较明显显的长记忆性,尤其对于中国股市而言,其长记忆性很强。由此可知,V/S分析比修正R/S分析更加稳健有效。 相似文献
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金融市场通常由于波动结构性突变的存在而出现伪长记忆性现象。运用ICSS算法寻找方差突变点进行阶段划分,运用V/S分析法对我国期铜市场波动阶段前后的长期记忆性进行检测和比较,并利用FIGARCH模型对波动序列的长期记忆性进行建模估计。研究结果表明,我国期铜市场存在全程长期记忆性;阶段划分后序列的长期记忆性显著降低;期铜波动的FIGARCH模型具有更优的拟舍效果和预测能力。 相似文献
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The risk premium associated with large upside jumps in oil market is a significant driver of the cross-section of stock returns from 1986 to 2014. In contrast to previous research, variance risk is priced only when we do not control for jumps. Upward jumps are priced in tight supply-demand conditions but not in more abundant supply periods. There is some evidence that downward jumps are priced in abundant supply conditions but not in tight conditions. Innovations in risk neutral jumps have predictive power for important economic indicators, including notably consumption growth. This helps explain the pricing of jump risks. 相似文献
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This paper develops an equilibrium asset and option pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion. The model provides analytical formulas for an equity premium and a more general pricing kernel that links the physical and risk‐neutral densities. The model explains the two empirical phenomena of the negative variance risk premium and implied volatility smirk if market crashes are expected. Model estimation with the S&P 500 index from 1985 to 2005 shows that jump size is indeed negative and the risk aversion coefficient has a reasonable value when taking the jump into account. 相似文献
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Weichen Teng 《Journal of Marketing Communications》2019,25(6):626-644
Modern retail is fiercely competitive, forcing grocery retailers to enhance promotions including premium redemption to attract customers. Taiwan’s leading convenience store chains have even established an integrated marketing department to develop unique premium rewards and campaigns that seek to induce customers to spend more or switch from other retailers. However, research on premium attractiveness is relatively scarce despite its importance in determining the success of a premium promotion. This empirical study identifies the premium value hierarchy that drives attractiveness from the consumer’s perspective. It finds that epistemic value is the most important driver behind making a premium reward attractive, which in turn, raises customers’ brand attitude toward the retailer and purchase intention in the retailer’s stores. High premium value can also make a customer develop a positive brand attitude. By contrast, utilitarian, hedonic, and collecting values only indirectly affect a customer’s brand attitude via the epistemic value. In addition, the trading stamps promotion only works with frequent customers; it is not effective in enticing VIP customers. This study provides suggestions on how to develop an attractive premium product and successful trading stamps promotion. 相似文献
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Using annual data from four open economies (Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, and Chile), and estimating correlations and generalized impulse responses within the traditional vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis, we find that inflation, both in the short and long run, is negatively correlated with consumption, investment, and the stock of foreign debt. We propose an optimizing model of an open economy with outstanding foreign debt and borrowing constraint that could explain these empirics. In this economy, risk premium depends on creditworthiness measured by debt–income ratio. Firms operate under costly investment, and all transactions involving consumption and investment are subject to cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints. 相似文献
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运用2001-2004年的样本数据。在对中国上市公司控制权的隐性利益水平所进行的分析显示,中国上市公司的转让溢价水平除了与转让比例呈正相关以外,转让溢价水平与净资产收益率、现金比率、流通股数和公司规模均呈负相关。同时,随着转让比例的上升,一开始溢价比例会增加,但当转让比例达到一定程度时,溢价比例又会下降,溢价比例与转让比例之问是一种倒U型的非线性关系。 相似文献
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文章运用方差互换合约的思想,从香港恒生指数和美国S&P500指数现货和期权的价格中提炼出无模型波动率风险溢酬,并对其特征进行了考察。研究结果表明,香港股市和美国股市中的波动率风险的确被定价,且风险溢酬显著为负,说明两市投资者均体现出风险厌恶。但同时我们也发现两个市场投资者的行为模式存在差异。此外,香港和美国市场的波动率风险相关度很高,且存在明显的溢出效应。 相似文献
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This article attempts to assess Iran's trade potential, explore over- and under-trade countries and determine factors affecting export development by using the gravity model. Seventy countries, which are considered the major markets for Iran agricultural products, are divided into 50 developing and 20 developed ones. By using panel data during the period when the export premium was submitted (2002–2005), Iran's agricultural exports were predicted. For this purpose, equations for each group of countries regressed by applying the augmented gravity model. Finally, the results were compared with actual figures. The results showed that Iran was more over-traded with developing countries relative to developed ones. This analysis helps us to determine the proper commercial direction, assess trade potential capacity and explore effective factors on export development such as export premium. Therefore, trade flows can be improved with under-trade countries and will be supported with over-trade ones through proper policies. 相似文献
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逃费:中国社会养老保障制度的困境 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
违规或逃避缴费是设计和实施社会养老保障制度的一个关键问题。逃费在中国已经成为一个威胁社会养老保障制度的重大问题。从历史和现实两个部分对中国逃费的现状和原因进行了分析。提出要从缴费年限和缴费基数两方面对社会养老保障制度进行调整,以缓解逃费的困境。 相似文献
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Product quality,attributes, and brand name as determinants of price: The case of consumer electronics 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Morris B. Holbrook 《Marketing Letters》1992,3(1):71-83
This paper proposes and illustrates an approach to measuring one aspect of brand equity, viewed as a price premium and defined as the increment that a brand name contributes to the price of a product above and beyond that justified by its quality (where quality is determined by an assessment of the relevant attributes, features, or characteristics). Two illustrative studies apply the proposed measure to consumer-electronics products found in home-theater or audio-video entertainment centers. Study 1 uses data presented byConsumer Reports to regress market price on overall quality and on dummy variables coded to represent brand names. Here, the results for home-theater products suggest a conspicuous absence of incremental brand-name effects. Study 2 generalizes this result by analyzing data for various electronic products offered by theCrutchfield Catalog. Across six product categories, when controlling for differences in an attributes-based index of product quality, a significant brand-related price premium appears to occur only for Carver. This finding again casts doubt on the importance of brand equity in the market for consumer electronics.The author gratefully acknowledge the support of the Columbia Business School's Faculty Research Fund. 相似文献