勉力献疑

本文针对沟口雄三的“乡里空间”和“省力”两个概念提出了一些疑问。“乡里空间”与国民党主导的建国运动和社会运动具有内在的契合，但这一运动在与中国共产党的竞争中处于不利地位，这说明“乡里空间”应该还蕴涵有其他的方面，在不同的历史条件下这些方面应该有不同的发展，并导致各方面产生不同的组合关系。辛亥革命尽管以各省独立为呈现面貌，但在接下来的四分五裂状态下，却也有很多跨越省的全国性的学会、商会、工会等的广泛存在，因此在“省力”之外，也有“国力”的因素。从思想史的角度，民族危机感也．并不必然导致对本民族文化的否定。     

Bicameralism and corruption

This paper studies the impact of bicameralism on the level of corruption of elected officials. The relationship between parliamentary organization and corruption is analyzed in a two-period game between legislators, citizens and a lobby group, which delivers several predictions that we empirically investigate using a panel of 35 democracies during the period 1996-2004. Assuming that legislators choose a multidimensional policy on which citizens and a lobby group have opposing interests, we show that bicameralism improves the accountability of legislators to the electorate when the same party controls the two chambers and party polarization is high, while the opposite holds if the two chambers are controlled by different parties. These predictions find strong support in our empirical analysis.     

Prices and market structure: an empirical analysis of the supermarket industry in Chile

This article investigates empirically the relationship between market structure and consumer prices in the supermarket industry in Chile. A panel of monthly data from 16 cities in the period January 1998–September 2006 is used. We find that, the more concentrated the industry in a city, the higher the prices, while the participation of major national chains in cities tends to lower prices. In terms of magnitude, this latter effect prevails over the former. Moreover, the dominant local chain is found to behave differently depending on whether or not one of the national chains is present in the city. Finally, we find that prices rise when a national chain acquires another chain and both were previously in a city (inmerge) while if only one of the two was present (outmerge), prices fall.     

世界“六大”洲国花设立现状研究

目前世界“六大”洲195个国家中已有79个国家 明确设立了官方国花，其中拥有2种以上国花的国家4个，5 个国家发生了国花的变更(增补或废止)。设立国花的国家数 占该地区国家总数的比例由高至低依次为北美和中美洲(简称 NC-美洲)、南美洲、亚洲、大洋洲、非洲和欧洲。官方未确 认(包括民间约定的非官方)国花33个；未设立国花的国家83 个。79个国家的85种官方国花设立时间大多集中在1961— 2016年间，还有25个国花的设立时间不明确。85个官方国 花隶属37个科69个属79种，其中位居前6位的科依次是兰科 (11)、豆科(8)、菊科(7)，锦葵科(5)、木犀科(4)和蔷薇科 (4)。国花选设中亚洲、NC-美洲和南美洲国花选设主要以观 赏性为主，非洲以观赏性和特有、濒危物种保护为主，欧洲则 兼顾了历史文化、象征意义和原产及生态价值。还补充或纠正 了部分国家国花的设立信息，分析发现国花的变更与历史、物 种保护或经济因素相关，在国花的设立中应更重视保护特有、 珍稀濒危物种。此外，在调查过程中发现3个阻碍调研的难 题，即不同国家对国家生物象征的概念不统一、国花缺少物种 拉丁学名、民间约定与官方公示的国花存在差异性。通过对世 界各国国花设立现状进行分析，为中国国花的设立提供借鉴     

Incentive Regulation of Multinational Enterprises*

Sectors with a long regulatory tradition have recently experienced intense activity by multinationals whose international operations and relocation threats represent a new cause for concern for regulators. I analyze a multinational serving two countries and being regulated by two national authorities. The firm is shown to favor, or cross‐subsidize, the country with a larger stake in the firm's profit, and the linkage among national regulations may induce unexpected effects on outputs. I also analyze a multinational's lobbying decisions and its effects on national regulations. Finally, a credible threat to “fly” away from tough regulators lets the firm obtain larger profits.     

Re-examination of convergence hypothesis among Indian states in panel stationarity testing framework with structural breaks

This article examines the conditional income convergence hypothesis for 17 major states in India for the period of 1960–2012. Univariate stationarity tests without structural breaks provide evidence against the convergence hypothesis. However, when two or more structural breaks are applied in per capita income series, the incomes of around 11–13 states are found to stochastically converge to the national average. This finding supports the convergence hypothesis for the panel as a whole after accounting for two data features, cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks in incomes, using a unified panel stationarity testing framework.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS ESTIMATION USING INDICATOR RATIOS

We propose a new approach to national accounts compilation, which also serves as a formalization of current compilation practices. When formalizing the procedure, a distinction is made between (basic) data, national accounts identities and so-called indicator ratios. The latter are ratios of or percentage relations between national accounts variables, such as the relation between output and value added. Indicator ratios are currently used in national accounts compilation practices in order to make adjustments to the basic data or to fill in missing data. The latter use is particularly relevant when basic data are scarce, which is the case not only in many developing countries, but also in developed countries when annual accounts are compiled for recent periods. The (basic) data, indicator ratios and identities together are used in a Bayesian approach to estimate the values of national accounts variables and analytical indicator ratios based thereon. The amendment of the current practices consists in introducing reliability intervals of basic data and indicator ratios, which allows for the use of a much larger number of indicator ratios in the compilation and checking of national accounts data. The Bayesian compilation approach makes it possible–in contrast to current practices–to use indicator ratios both as priors and as analytical indicators.     

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

The ECB target is set in terms of the year on year growth rate of the euro area Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. Within our empirical framework we find that once area wide information is properly taken into account the contribution of national idiosyncratic developments is negligible.     

Political decentralization and corruption: Exploring the conditional role of parties

This study investigates how national levels of corruption are influenced by the interaction of two factors in political decentralization: the presence of local elections and the organizational structure of national parties. Previous studies have focused primarily on the role of fiscal decentralization on corruption and have mostly ignored the institutions of political decentralization. Using new data in a series of expansive models across multiple countries and years, we find that corruption will be lower when local governments are more accountable to and more transparent toward their constituents. This beneficial arrangement is most likely to occur when local elections are combined with nonintegrated political parties, meaning that party institutions themselves are decentralized from national control. Such an institutional arrangement maximizes local accountability by putting the decision to nominate and elect local leaders in the hands of those best in a position to evaluate their honesty—local electors.     

HOUSEHOLD NEEDS AND POVERTY: WITH APPLICATION TO SPAIN AND THE U.K.

We examine the sensitivity of U.K.-Spanish poverty comparisons to variations in the dependence of equivalence scales on household size and composition, using evidence from national household budget surveys. We sum up these comparisons using subjective confidence levels. Taking into account the dissimilarities in the distribution of incomes and needs across countries, we find, inter alia , that although the poor are typically more numerous in Spain than in Britain, the actual headcount differences may vary by up to 10 percent of the population when needs allowances are altered, even when kept the same across the two countries. Comparisons of poverty composition across the two countries are also very sensitive to the choice of equivalence scale parameters. Generally, however, the proportion of single adults among the poor is much less important in Spain than in Britain, the reverse being true for households with three or more adults.     

Illegal immigration in the presence of labor unions

"This paper develops a general equilibrium framework of a two-sector economy which incorporates illegal immigration in the presence of labor unions. It demonstrates that stricter enforcement of immigration laws, by reducing the demand for or supply of illegal aliens, benefits all legal workers in the economy. The model is used to evaluate the impact of these policy changes on national income. Results indicate that national income does not necessarily fall when immigration controls are tightened. The existence of a union mitigates the negative welfare impact of a reduction in the number of illegal immigrants."     

LINKAGES BETWEEN MACRO AND MICRO BUSINESS ACCOUNTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT

The paper shows the relationship between microbusiness accounting based on double-entry bookkeeping and macroeconomic accounting based on quadruple-entry bookkeeping. In order for microaccounts to successfully aggregate into macroaccounts (i.e. preserve macro/micro linkages), quadruple-entry bookkeeping requires that the traditional double entries, recorded by transacting microbusiness units, be "consistent" with each other. In fact national economic accounting implicitly assumes that such consistency is maintained when national "aggregates" are uniquely extracted from national accounts and when national "identities" are claimed to hold true.
The main purpose of the paper is to show important examples where quadruple-entry consistency is not satisfied. These examples typically involve "complex" economic transactions between business units in which the legal form of the transactions do not necessarily represent their economic substance. When this occurs, different business units have genuinely divergent conceptions and perceptions with respect to their mutual economic transactions. Therefore, microbusiness accounts cannot be successfully aggregated into macroeconomic accounts without violating the integrity of microdecision making records.
The conclusion of the paper introduces a new theory called Perpetual Imbalanced Accounting. The theory shows that inconsistent (or imbalanced) economic accounting does tend to become consistent (or balanced) over sufficiently long time periods. Therefore, we must adopt a more dynamic view of national accounting if we desire to preserve successful macro/micro linkages. However, the problems of imbalanced macroaccounting and its statistical consequences cannot be entirely avoided no matter how long the accounting time period is taken. All of the above have important implications for the revision of the United Nations System of National Accounts.     

On the Strategic Use of Representative Democracy in International Agreements

We consider as endogenous the choice of the delegation rule in an international agreement between two countries. We study three potential types of delegation: strong, weak or no delegation, the latter case corresponding to direct democracy. We show that populations decide to bind themselves by delegating the national policy decision-making to a "powerful conservative representative," in order to improve their bargaining position. These noncooperative behaviors of countries when they decide on their delegation rule induce negative political externalities between countries, which cancel the gains achieved by the internalization of economic externalities in the case of political integration. We then examine the consequences of ratification by referendum. We conclude that a Pareto improvement of the international agreement would be to incorporate an ex post referendum.     

POLICY EVALUATION IN THE PRESENCE OF OUTSOURCING: GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS VERSUS POLITICAL FEASIBILITY

We analyze the effects of outsourcing in the presence of a minimum wage by presenting a general-equilibrium model with an oligopolistic export sector and a competitive import-competing sector. An outsourcing tax is politically popular because it switches jobs to unemployed natives. It is also economically sound because it raises national income. An export subsidy may or may not be justified on welfare grounds. Increased international competition has no effect on the level of outsourcing, but the direction of its effect on unemployment and national income depends on the relative factor intensities of the two sectors.     

Defining residual risk-sharing opportunities: Pooling world income components

We construct a new method of decomposing the variance of national incomes into components in such a way as to indicate the most important ‘residual’ risk-sharing opportunities among peoples of the world. The risk-sharing opportunities we study are nonsystematic risk-sharing opportunities. These are the risk-sharing opportunities that would remain if systematic risk were already shared, see 2. The new method developed here uses a simpler approach to deriving the components based on pure variance reduction. With the new method, the income component securities are derived in terms of eigenvectors of a transformed variance matrix of world incomes, but with this method, the transformation is to use the residuals when incomes are regressed on world income instead of deviations of incomes from average world income as in 3. The method is applied using 16 data on national incomes for large countries 1950–1990, using two different methods of estimating variances.     

Diversity and innovation

Although the effect of culture on national innovation levels is well-established, previous literature assumes cultural homogeneity within a nation. In this article we analyse two aspects of diversity – ethnic and values – and their impact on national innovation output. We show that ethnic diversity or fractionalization and values diversity are distinct and while the former has a negative effect on innovation, the latter contributes positively. However, countries are bound to have both types of diversity. We find that countries that are ethnically homogenous but diverse in values orientation are the best innovators.     

Targeting Regional Output with State Government Fiscal Instruments: a Dynamic Multi-regional CGE Analysis

Between 1986/87 and 1998/99, Tasmania's share of national output declined from approximately 2.3 per cent to 1.9 per cent. At least two forecasters have projected that Tasmania's share of national activity will continue to decline over the period 1999/00 to 2003/04, falling to 1.7 per cent of national activity by the end of this period. This paper investigates whether it is within the power of the Tasmanian government to influence materially this forecast outcome by means of a budget neutral tax policy. Two such policy packages are investigated using a dynamic two-region CGE model of the Australian economy (FEDERAL-F). In the first, the question asked is whether there exists a feasible re-arrangement of the Tasmanian government's revenue raising effort which has the effect of maintaining, over the forecast period, Tasmania's share of national GDP at its 1998/99 level. This is found not to be so. Hence, a second and (comparatively) less ambitious policy is then considered. This involves the gradual but complete elimination of payroll tax over the forecast period, and its replacement with a direct tax on households. Even when such a dramatic tax change as this is considered, the impact on the forecast for Tasmania's share of national activity is not large.     

POVERTY COMPARISONS WITH ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINES ESTIMATED FROM SURVEY DATA

The objective of measuring poverty is usually to make comparisons over time or between two or more groups. Common statistical inference methods are used to determine whether an apparent difference in measured poverty is statistically significant. Studies of relative poverty have long recognized that when the poverty line is calculated from sample survey data, both the variance of the poverty line and the variance of the welfare metric contribute to the variance of the poverty estimate. In contrast, studies using absolute poverty lines have ignored the poverty line variance, even when the poverty lines are estimated from sample survey data. Including the poverty line variance could either reduce or increase the precision of poverty estimates, depending on the specific characteristics of the data. This paper presents a general procedure for estimating the standard error of poverty measures when the poverty line is estimated from survey data. Based on bootstrap methods, the approach can be used for a wide range of poverty measures and methods for estimating poverty lines. The method is applied to recent household survey data from Mozambique. When the sampling variance of the poverty line is taken into account, the estimated standard errors of Foster–Greer–Thorbecke and Watts poverty measures increase by 15–30 percent at the national level, with considerable variability at lower levels of aggregation.     

External economies as a mechanism of agglomeration in EU manufacturing

Productive externalities are significant determinants of agglomeration, not deeply studied at the industry and international level. We analyse the impact on productivity growth of technological externalities, both inter- and intraindustry, national or international, at the industry level for the EU countries and the period 1995–2002. The results confirm the advisability of considering international externalities when countries are taken as regions, whose omission underestimates national spillovers. Together with national endowments and a central geographical position, the growth of productivity is encouraged by national and international specialization as a general result; moreover, it is fuelled by stronger interindustry spillovers and productive diversification, a result more evident for high technology industries, while lower technology industries are more sensitive to the omission of international externalities. Economic integration seems to be relevant, because supranational regions with less friction for goods and factor movements are more likely to take advantage of external economies as a mechanism of productivity growth and agglomeration.     

FINANCIAL OPERATIONS AND MONETARY STATISTICS: IMPROVED CONCORDANCE IN THE FRENCH NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

National accounts are a powerful means of coordinating different statistical systems. The better their classifications are adapted to the basic statistics or the information blocks one wishes to use, the better the national accounts play their part. This statement explains why, taking the opportunity of revising the whole system, French national accountants tried to improve the concordance between financial operation tables and monetary statistics. Other reasons leading to this attempt can be found in the dissatisfaction of users having to face different and inconsistent financial information such as the monetary statistics on one hand and the financial aggregates of the national accounts on the other; and even more reasons appear in the organizational field since those two statistical systems are issued by two neighbour services of the Banque de France, often depending on the same sources. Further, many propitious factors are converging at the same time: the French financial system is undergoing profound transformations originating as much in the behaviour of economic agents as in the law, and the statistical operations have to adapt to these changes. The national accounts will in the near future include balance sheets in which financial asset holdings are directly comparable to the money supply aggregates. In its first part our paper sets forth the detailed reasons for our attempts, the conditions in which it took place and the present results. We have reached a much better degree of consistency between the two systems, even if the final scheme has not yet been adopted in either the monetary field or in the field of national accounts. But an important question remains open about the durability of the harmonization: we think that it could be relatively uncertain because of the differences in the goals pursued by the two systems and the constraints which they face. That is why in the second part of the paper we tried to review the way such a pragmatic undertaking as ours could call into question the way in which financial operations are described in the system of national accounts. If one agrees with the present boundary between the real and the financial sphere, the articulation must remain somewhat elementary. But if one wants to revise the usual so-called dichotomy between financial and non financial phenomena, we think that a complete rebuilding of the conceptual framework of the accounts has to be done; this would necessitate a considerable amount of theoretical and practical work.