A putty-clay vintage model for sectors of industry in the Netherlands

Summary A putty-clay vintage model has been estimated for five industrial sectors: food, beverages and tobacco manufacturing; textiles, clothing and footwear manufacturing; chemical industry and oil refineries; metal manufacturing, and total manufacturing. Substitutabilityex ante between labour and capital appeared to be small in the first four sectors, with textiles, clothing and footwear manufacturing as an exception. Substitutabilityex ante in total manufacturing industry is rather high: an elasticity of substitution of –0.74. Embodied technical progress is strong in all industrial sectors. In textiles, clothing and footwear manufacturing and in total manufacturing it is both labour- and capital-augmenting in nature. In the other sectors it is mainly of the labour-augmenting variety.This research has partly been made possible by a grant of the National Programme of Labour Market Research (NPAO). Advice by Professor Th. van de Klundert and Mr. A.H. van Zon is gratefully acknowledged.     

Empirical vintage models for the Netherlands: A review in outline

Summary The abundant literature on empirical vintage modelling for the Netherlands is not easily accessible. This article provides a discussion of the main issues covered by that research. Attention is given to (theoretical) model specifications, empirically inspired adjustments and empirical results. The empirical evidence for vintage models appears to be convincing, but it does not seem conclusive with respect to a preference for eitherex ante complementarity orex ante substitutability. Comprehensive modelling for the economy of the Netherlands up to now mainly usesex ante complementarity to describe the production technology. Apart from this, policy implications of such models show a degree of nuance which exceeds but also includes the purely demand oriented approach.     

The vintage approach to output and employment growth in the Netherlands, 1921–1976

Zusammenfassung Der ?vintage?-Ansatz zur Untersuchung des Wachstums von Produktion und Besch?ftigung in den Niederlanden von 1921 bis 1976. — Die Arbeit verfolgt drei Ziele. Erstens soll sie zeigen, in welcher Weise Produktion und Besch?ftigung in den Niederlanden seit den frühen siebziger Jahren analysiert worden sind. Das geschieht durch Fortentwicklung des ?clay-clay?-Modells, das in der Den Hartog-Tjan-Analyse verwendet wird. Das zweite Ziel ist, das Grundmodell an bestimmten Stellen zu verbessern, um einige seiner schw?chsten Eigenschaften zu beseitigen. Drittens soll die Sch?tzperiode verl?ngert werden, damit festgestellt werden kann, in welchem Ausma\ das Wachstum von Besch?ftigung und Produktion in der Nachkriegsperiode von dem der Zwischenkriegszeit abweicht. Die Untersuchung führt zu dem Ergebnis, da\ sich die siebziger Jahre im Hinblick auf die Entwicklung der Reall?hne und des Investitionsniveaus von den drei\iger Jahren deutlich unterscheiden. Gem?\ der Philosophie, die dem ?clay-clay?-Modell zugrunde liegt, bedeutet das für die praktische Politik, da\ die Bek?mpfung der Arbeitslosigkeit mit Hilfe einer keynesianischen antizyklischen Ausgabenpolitik in den siebziger im Gegensatz zu den drei\iger Jahren nachteilige Nebenwirkungen haben kann. Statt dessen sollte man versuchen, den Anstieg der Reall?hne zu bremsen. Das ist die Hauptbotschaft, die sich aus dem ?vintage?-Ansatz zur Untersuchung des Wachstums von Produktion und Besch?ftigung ableiten l?\t. Aber obwohl die Philosophie, die dem Modell zugrunde liegt, weitgehend akzeptiert worden ist, blieb sie doch nicht ohne Kritik.

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Résumé L’approche de ?vintage? de la croissance de production et d’emploi dans les Pays-Bas, 1921–1976. —Le but de cet article est triple. Premièrement, nous voulons démontrer dans quelle manière on a analysé la croissance de production et d’emploi depuis les premières années soixante-dix. Nous le faisons en appliquant le modèle de ?clay-clay? comme il est utilisé dans l’analyse de Den Hartog-Tjan. Deuxièmement, nous voulons élargir le modèle fondamental à certains points pour éliminer quelques aspects les plus faibles. Troisièmement, nous voulons élargir la période d’estimation pour pouvoir déterminer dans quelle mesure la croissance d’emploi et de la production dans la période après-guerre diffère de ceux dans la période inter-guerre. L’analyse mène à la conclusion que, référant au développement des salaires réels et au niveau d’investissement brut, les années soixante-dix diffèrent fortement des années trente. En accord avec la philosophie que le modèle de ?clay-clay? prend pour base, les conséquences pour la politique pratique sont que dans les années soixante-dix, en contraste avec les années trente, une lutte contre le ch?mage avec une politique keynésienne des dépenses contre-cyclique n’est pas possible sans des effets négatifs. Au contraire, on devrait essayer de freiner l’augmentation des salaires réels. C’est le message principal de l’approche de ?vintage? de la croissance de production et d’emploi. Cependant, bien que la philosophie que ce modèle prend pour base f?t largement acceptée, elle n’a pas resté incontestée.

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Resumen La aproximación de vendimia para el crecimiento del empleo y el producto en los Países Bajos, 1921-1976. —El objetivo de este trabajo es triple. Primero, mostrar en qué forma se ha analizado el crecimiento del producto y del empleo en los Países Bajos desde principios de la década del 70. Esto se hace transformando el modelo ?clay-clay? tal como se usa en el análisis Den Hartog-Tjan. Segundo, enmendar el modelo básico en ciertos puntos de manera de remover algunas de sus características más débiles. Tercero, ampliar el período de estimación para poder establecer en qué medida el crecimiento del empleo y del producto en el periodo de post-guerra difiere de aquéllos del periodo entre-guerras. El análisis lleva a la conclusión que con respecto al desarrollo de los salarios reales y el nivel de inversiones brutas, los anos setenta difieren fuertemente de los a?os treinta. De acuerdo a la filosofía subyacente al modelo ?clay-clay?, las consecuencias para una política práctica son que en los a?os setenta, en contraste a los a?os treinta, el combate del desempleo por medio de una política de gastos keynesiana anticíclica no está excenta de posibles efectos adversos. En su reemplazo se debería tratar de contener el crecimiento de los salarios reales. Este es el mensaje principal de la aproximación de vendimia para el crecimiento del producto y el empleo. Sin embargo, a pesar de que la filosofía subyacente a este modelo ha sido ampliamente aceptada, no ha permanecido sin desafíos.

     

招商选资承接好国际产业转移

国际产业转移是经济全球化的必然趋势,而承接好国际产业转移则是发展中国家和地区在新形势下开发开放结构调整的快捷通道,是加快经济社会协调发展的理性选择。近年来,全球经济发展和国际产业转移形势都有了新变化。当今,在国际金融和经济危机尚未见底,世界经济衰退继续蔓延的严峻复杂形势下,我们要努力抢抓发展机遇,继续做好国际产业转移的承接工作。     

A simple multisector model with six sectors of production estimation and simulation results for the 1950–1968 period

Summary In this article a simple multisector model for the Netherlands is presented with six sectors of production. Estimation and simulation results are based on input-output data for the period 1950–1968. Simple log-linear equations (containing both relative price factors and scale factors) are used to describe the demand for (intermediary and primary) factors of production and the demand for final output (including private investment). Sectoral product prices and wage rates are determined within the model. This applies to the generation of disposable income of households as well. Using this simple multisector model, actual economic developments during the 1955–1968 period can be simulated in a reasonably satisfactory way.I am indebted to Professor S.K. Kuipers of the University of Groningen, Professor J. Muysken of the University of Limburg and an anonymous referee for their advice and their critical remarks. The Netherlands Organisation for the Advancement of Pure Scientific Research subsidized the multisector modelling project, of which this article summarizes the results (grant number 46–73).     

Revealed comparative advantage in manufacturing industry: The case of the Netherlands

Summary This article contains a survey of empirical evidence as regards the revealed comparative advantage of Dutch manufacturing industry. Besides, a comparison of the factors influencing comparative advantage is made for the Netherlands, Belgium and West Germany. From this review it seems rather clear the the Netherlands' industry has a revealed comparative advantage in skill-intensive products and in natural-resource intensive products. Economies of scale also seem to contribute to Dutch industry's revealed comparative advantage. The role of R&D is less clear, while physical-capital intensity apparently does not contribute to Dutch indutry's revealed comparative advantage. Also it looks like the Netherlands and West Germany have adjusted their industrial structure by moving away from simple products towards respectively skill-intensive products and fundamental products, while Belgium is rather behind in this process. The authors want to thank J. Kol for his valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Output and employment growth in the Netherlands in the postwar period: A putty-clay approach

Summary An attempt has been made to estimate a putty-clay vintage model for the Netherlands in order to test the assumption, usually made in the Dutch vintage model discussion, of complementarity ex ante. The estimation led to the following conclusions: an elasticity of substitution of about 0.32, a planning period of 13 years and apart from the 1950s the existence of embodied labour-augmenting technical progress only. The model outcomes lead to the conclusion of capital shortage being the ruling phenomenon in the postwar period with only some short periods in the 1950s and the late-1960s of capital abundance. Since the late-1970s employment growth is not only depressed by too slow a growth of capacity demand for labour but also by the increasing underutilization of productive capacity. Part of this research has been made possible by a grant of the Netherlands Organization for the Advancement of Pure Research (ZWO) and the National Programme of Labour Market Research (NPAO). The authors are indebted to Professor Th. van de Klundert for valuable comments.     

A labour-supply function for females in the Netherlands

Summary For the Netherlands there is a great deal of leeway to make up in empirically estimating laboursupply functions. In this article a macro supply function for females is estimated where, for the first time in the Netherlands, income data are used. A positive relation between labour force participation and income is found. As for the role of unemployment a significant discouraged worker effect is discovered. Testing timingversus persistence in labour force participation results in empirical evidence for the theory stressing persistence. The authors would like to thank Joop Hartog, Arie Kapteyn, Jacques Siegers and Peter Kooreman for their comments on an earlier version of this article.     

A model of counterfeiting: A duopoly approach

This paper establishes a duopoly model, which considers consumers’ preference exhibits the horizontal differentiation and vertical differentiation simultaneously, to investigate how counterfeiting affects firms’ market power and consumer's purchasing behavior. The effects of government enforcement on counterfeiting are also concerned. The findings tell that (1) the market power of the firms is higher than the one when consumers with only the characteristic of horizontal differentiation or vertical differentiation; (2) when the production cost of a genuine product increases, the consumers who originally purchased this genuine product may continue to purchase the genuine one, purchase the genuine of the other brand, or, quite interestingly, purchase the counterfeiting product of the other brand; (3) If government imposes a (stricter) enforcement on counterfeiting, the consumers who do not have a strong preference on a particular brand of product but originally purchased the counterfeit of this brand of product may instead purchase the genuine one or purchase nothing; the consumers who originally purchased its genuine may instead purchase the genuine of the other brand or purchase nothing.     

Den Hartog and Tjan's vintage model as a tool for the determination of structural unemployment: Some critical remarks

Summary The use of the vintage model with fixed coefficients as devised by den Hartog and Tjan for determining the causes of structural unemployment, is scrutinized; one should realize that this model had a great impact on the analysis of the unemployment situation by the Dutch government. On methodological grounds a sensitivity analysis of the model is performed and it is argued that the margins of uncertainty adhering to the results of this model are so large as to make the model in its current form a very questionable basis for an effective policy.The authors are indebted to Professors F. J. de Jong and Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert for valuable comments.     

The systems approach to household labor supply in the Netherlands

Summary Deaton and Muellbauer's `Almost Ideal Demand System' is employed to model the joint determination of family income and male and female labor supply of individual households in the Netherlands. Family composition effects are incorporated as quasi-price effects, as originally proposed by Batten. The model is estimated for a cross-section of households in the Netherlands in 1982, to explain both actual hours of work and preferred hours of work. An analysis of the effects of rationing of male labor supply, by a mandatory reduction of the length of the working week, points to a sizeable compensating effect on female labor supply.The authors thank Jacques Siegers, Joop Hartog, Tom Wansbeek and a referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft. Geert Ridder kindly provided his maximum likelihood computer program GRMAX, which was used in the estimation of the model.     

The technological system of Chinese manufacturing industry: A sectorial approach

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the technological system of Chinese manufacturing. The input–output method and network analysis are applied to investigate the structure and performance at the system level and the role of each sector at the individual level in 1997 and 2002. Firstly, the R&D-flow matrices for per unit output are constructed to examine the technology intensity and constitution of each sector. And then they are combined with the economic size and R&D investment structure in order to have a more comprehensive understanding of the system at the gross level, and reveal the main technology diffusion providers, acquirers and techno-economic flows between sectors. Results of both years show that the R&D performance and technology providing for diffusion are more concentrated than technology acquiring, and this difference becomes even greater in 2002. There are fewer sectors which act as main technology diffusion sources while more sectors participate as acquirers of technology diffusion. The techno-economic flows have high dependence on a few traditional sectors and the contribution of high-tech sectors such as ICT is quite limited.     

A general equilibrium analysis of FDI growth in Chinese services sectors

This paper analyzes one of the features of the Chinese economic transition, namely, the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) accruing to advanced services sectors. To that aim we use an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes, in a multi-regional setting, foreign multinationals operating in monopolistic competition. The model is based on data that split the world economy in 2016 into 11 regions (China - US - EU27 - Great Britain -other advanced economies - India - Japan - South East Asia - Latin America - Middle East - Sub Saharan Africa) and 21 sectors. We provide quantitative evidence on several characteristics of the 21 sectors in China, EU27 and the US, as well as other data on the role of China in the global stage, including its evolution since 2004. Several scenarios focusing on the increase of FDI inflows in services, because of the reduction of its FDI barriers, are simulated deriving short and long run results. We find that the impact of more foreign multinationals in services is positive for China but smaller than the one that had been obtained in other previous studies on FDI in manufactures. This is due to the still limited role of services in the Chinese economy and to a crowding out effect that domestic firms experience after the entry of foreign multinationals. On the whole the impact is, however, slightly positive for China, because manufactures benefit from the entry of foreign services multinationals. The rest of regions are unaffected or benefit very slightly, due to the fact that services production is less export oriented and more devoted to private consumption than in the case of manufactures. However, their manufacturing sectors are slightly harmed by the stronger Chinese competition. Many of them manage to more than offset this latter trend through higher exports or FDI in services directed to China.     

Labor market segmentation by industry sectors and wage gaps between migrants and local urban residents in urban China

This paper explores the influence of labor market segmentation by industry sectors on the wage gap between rural-to-urban migrants and local urban residents in China in the 2000s. Using Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) survey data and the results based on the Brown decomposition method, the results indicate that the influence of intra-industrial differentials is greater than the influence of inter-industry differentials in both 2002 and 2013. The influence of the explained component of the intra-industry differentials is larger in both 2002 and 2013, and the influence of the unexplained component of the intra-industrial differentials rises steeply from 2002 to 2013. These results show that the individual characteristic differentials (e.g. human capital) in the same industry sector is the main factor causing the wage gap in both 2002 and 2013, and the problem of discrimination against migrants in the same industry sector became more serious from 2002 to 2013.     

A search for leading sectors over the business cycle: The case of Korea

This paper studies the sectoral mechanism of shock propagation in business cycles by performing a case study. After we transform business survey indices of different industries into comparable metrics, we trace and compare them before and after reference dates. From these observations, we show that manufacturing industry leads the peak and the trough of the most recent business cycle in Korea; and six sectors are major players in manufacturing industry, i.e. ‘food products and beverages,’ ‘chemicals,’ ‘machinery,’ ‘motor vehicles, etc.,’ and ‘basic metals,’ and ‘fabricated metals.’ In conclusion, the heavy and chemical sectors may be the key to understanding recent business cycles in Korea.     

The vintage schooling hypothesis and racial differences in earnings and on-the-job training: A longitudinal analysis

Why do younger black males earn more relative to whites than do older black males? The literature offers two competing explanations. Smith and Welch suggest this pattern is evidence that employers are rewarding the improved skills of more recently, better-educated blacks. Lazear, and Duncan and Hoffman suggest that the pattern is the result of employer discrimination that prevents blacks from entering occupations that offer on-the-job training (OJT) and wage growth with experience. The competing views are tested by using the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Young Men to compare black and white earnings and regression estimates in two periods. Regression results for 1968 and 1978 indicate that, as the NLS cohort aged, only white males had an age-earnings profile exhibiting the positive effect of OJT. Over the period, education coefficients decreased for both groups with the reduction greatest in black coefficients. This suggests that the earnings effect of education is not as stable for blacks as it is for whites over the life cycle. Black-white earnings ratios were approximately the same in both periods. The results reported here support the explanations offered by Lazear and by Duncan and Hoffman, implying that policies focusing on eliminating racial differences in educational quality may be insufficient in improving the relative position of blacks over the life cycle.