对外贸易影响中国制造业市场绩效的实证研究

本文利用中国制造业的面板数据实证分析了对外贸易对行业绩效的影响,通过选择价格成本差距衡量行业的绩效,本文的研究结论表明,进口贸易对我国市场竞争程度较高行业的价格成本差距具有显著的正向影响,而对市场竞争程度较弱的行业具有不显著的负向影响,国内行业市场竞争程度越弱,进口贸易的负面效应越大;而出口贸易的扩大对我国制造行业的价格成本差距具有显著的负向影响。     

An empirical evaluation of the 1986 Semiconductor Trade Arrangement

In the paper, we aim to empirically evaluate the extent to which the 1986 Semiconductor Trade Arrangement (STA) affected the Japanese producers’ behavior in the market for the 1 M Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) chips. Based on the Euler equation of non-Japanese firms’ learning-curve optimization, we estimate the marginal cost function and then calculate Japanese price-cost margins by using nonparametric estimation. Our estimation results show that the price-cost margins of Japanese firms were set far above the learning-curve optimization margins but still lower than the marginal costs on average. Hence we can infer that the STA could not push the price above the average Japanese marginal cost but facilitate the Japanese firms to collude to set the price-cost margins by taking account of learning-by-doing effects. This empirical finding and no significant spillover effect are combined with other observations to imply that the STA might have enabled later-entering non-Japanese firms to rapidly expand their market shares and get a foot in the door of the R&D competition for new generational DRAM.     

Sectoral and aggregate estimates of the cyclical behavior of markups: Evidence from Germany

Sectoral and Aggregate Estimates of the Cyclical Behavior of Mark-ups: Evidence from Germany. — The paper presents evidence of the cyclical behavior of the price to marginal cost ratio for Germany. Average markups are estimated both for two-digit manufacturing industries and for the aggregate economy, the results being quite similar once the difference between gross output and and value-added markups is accounted for. Over the business cycle, markups appear to be countercyclical for most parameter constellations. This is interpreted as empirical support for business cycle theories that rely on aggregate demand shocks to affect markups inversely, thus producing procyclical real wages and productivity without having to assume technology shocks.     

External influences in Nordic business cycles, 1870–1988

This paper considers the relationship of the Nordic business cycle to the world business cycle using annual output data spanning 1870–1988. The paper studies the Nordic and a set of non-Nordic countries separately and finds evidence for both a Nordic and a world business cycle. Output movements in the individual Nordic countries are connected through the Nordic business cycle and are less affected by the world business cycle. There is no significant change in the behavior of the business cycle in the Nordic countries between 1873–1913 and 1948–1988.     

A search for leading sectors over the business cycle: The case of Korea

This paper studies the sectoral mechanism of shock propagation in business cycles by performing a case study. After we transform business survey indices of different industries into comparable metrics, we trace and compare them before and after reference dates. From these observations, we show that manufacturing industry leads the peak and the trough of the most recent business cycle in Korea; and six sectors are major players in manufacturing industry, i.e. ‘food products and beverages,’ ‘chemicals,’ ‘machinery,’ ‘motor vehicles, etc.,’ and ‘basic metals,’ and ‘fabricated metals.’ In conclusion, the heavy and chemical sectors may be the key to understanding recent business cycles in Korea.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S POST‐LIBERALISED CAPITAL FLOWS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS

This study used Christiano and Fitzgerald filtered correlation analysis to investigate the cyclical relationships between South Africa's post‐liberalised capital flows and domestic business cycle fluctuations. The results show that foreign direct investment inflows are counter‐cyclical and proactive, while the “hot” inflows are acyclical. Thus, South Africa's post‐liberalisation “hot” inflows have not been significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations. In contrast, the capital outflows are found to be consistently procyclical and proactive, suggesting that the outflows are more significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations than the capital inflows. In addition, it is found that the cyclical relationships between the capital inflows and the business cycle components of exports, household consumption and gross fixed investment are generally procyclical, except for portfolio inflows, which have a counter‐cyclical relationship with fixed investment. In contrast, the capital outflows are counter‐cyclically associated with exports and household consumption, and procyclically associated with fixed investment.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND PRICE‐COST MARGIN IN INDIAN INDUSTRIES

Using panel data for 137 three‐digit industries for 1980/81 to 1997/98, the paper examines the effect of trade liberalization on price‐cost margins in Indian industries. An econometric model is estimated to explain variations in price‐cost margins, taking tariff and nontariff barriers among the explanatory variables. The results indicate that the lowering of tariffs and removal of quantitative restrictions on imports of manufactures in the 1990s had a significant pro‐competitive effect on Indian industries, particularly concentrated industries, tending to reduce the price‐cost margins. The paper notes that despite the pro‐competitive effects of trade liberalization reinforced by domestic industrial deregulation, the price‐cost margin increased in the post‐reform period in most industries and aggregate manufacturing, which is attributed to a marked fall in the growth rate of real wages and a significant reduction in labor's income share in value added in the post‐reform period, reflecting perhaps a weakening of industrial labor's bargaining power.     

Manufacturing productivity in China and India: The role of institutional changes

In this paper we undertake a comparative study of productivity in the manufacturing sector for China and India using data from survey of manufacturing industries for the two countries. We find that productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India improved substantially over the 1998–2003 period. Specifically, the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the manufacturing sector over this period was about 11% higher in China than in India. We document two substantial changes in government policies in China that were not witnessed in India. First, the late 1990s saw an enormous wave of ownership restructuring due to the formal endorsement of private property rights by the Chinese central government. Second, in 1997 a large scale labour retrenchment program was launched to address the long standing problem of labour redundancy in the public sector. Using data from the Chinese survey of manufacturing industries, we quantify the impact of these large scale institutional changes on TFP of Chinese manufacturing industries. We find that these policy changes can explain about 30% of the growth in TFP of manufacturing industries. Hence we conclude that these institutional changes in China can account for a significant part of the gains in productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India over the 1998–2003 period.     

Intra-regional trade and business cycles in Southeast Asia

Conclusion In this note we considered the relationship between trade integration and the cross-country correlation of business cycle activity in southeast Asia. We found a positive and significant relationship between the degree of bilateral trade intensity and the cross-country bilateral correlation of business activity over the period 1986–1996, a period when trade integration was proceeding rapidly. Thus, the Frankel and Rose (1997) finding that more trade integration between industrialized countries tends to result in more highly synchronized business cycles, appears to be robust to a sample of countries which have diverse income levels and economic structures and are likely to have less bilateral intraindustry trade.     

Changing economic geography and vertical linkages in Japan

In Japan, the manufacturing has become geographically dispersed in the 1990s, when the import share has risen after the historic exchange rate appreciation. As is consistent with the interpretation that import penetration undermines regional input–output linkages, our regressions detect the significant decline of industrial concentrations previously established near output absorbers, especially in industries with high import share growths. This paper also finds that local knowledge spillovers and immobile specialized labor affect regional growth. Thus, while regional demand of tradable outputs matters less, regional supply of inputs, especially non-tradable inputs, remains critical for manufacturing locations. J. Japanese Int. Economies 17 (4) (2003) 561–581.     

城市主导产业识别及其空间集聚研究——以宁波市为例

城市主导产业是城市产业结构升级、经济格局优化的核心。为有效识别城市主导产业，构建基于产业波及效应、产业增长潜力及区域比较优势的主导产业识别方法，并采用TOPSIS方法判断各主导产业主导性大小。针对识别出的主导产业，采用核密度及标准差椭圆方法对其产业集聚进行研究。以宁波市为例，识别出3个主导产业门类，按其主导性排序为工业、交通运输/仓储和邮政业、商务服务业。进一步对主导性最强的工业展开分析，识别出5个工业细分行业主导产业，其排序为汽车制造业、化学原料和化学制品制造业、电气机械和器材制造业、有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、仪器仪表制造业。产业集聚分析结果显示：交通运输/仓储和邮政业、商务服务业主要在宁波市主城区范围内集聚分布；5个工业细分行业主导产业主要在宁波市中部主城区及北部余姚、慈溪两个县级市范围内集聚分布。     

Evolving geographical concentration of European manufacturing industries

Evolving Geographical Concentration of European Manufacturing Industries. — This paper analyzes the geographical concentration of 32 manufacturing sectors over the 1972–1996 period for 13 European countries. Concentration has increased continuously over the sample period in employment terms, while remaining roughly unchanged in export terms. On average, increases in concentration were stronger prior to the launch of the Single Market than afterwards. The sectors most sensitive to the Single Market however, showed an acceleration in concentration after 1986. There is also evidence that low-tech industries are the most strongly concentrated, and that center-periphery gradients across countries are losing importance for industrial location in the EU.     

日本东京圈的商务成本

日本经济高度集中于东京圈导致了地价、房租和劳动力等商务成本的增加，也导致交通拥挤和居住环境的恶化，商务成本和生活成本高对经济带来的影响导致了东京圈的功能特化，即：制造业不断撤退，居民纷纷向外迁徙，但以金融业和信息传媒产业为首的第三产业和大公司的总部以及外国大公司却看好东京，东京圈中心部降低商务成本的主要措施是促进土地合理流动和提高土地利用率以降低地价，而周边地区的主要措施则是用新的手段加强招商引资，     

Competition and productivity in Japanese manufacturing industries

This paper examines the determinants of productivity in Japanese manufacturing industries, looking particularly at the impact of product market competition on productivity. Using a newly available panel data on around ten thousand firms in Japanese manufacturing for the years 1994–2000, I show that competition, as measured by lower level of industrial price–cost margin, enhances productivity growth, controlling for a broad range of industrial and firm-specific characteristics. Moreover, I suggest that market power, as measured by either individual firm's price–cost margin or market share, has negative impact on productivity level of R & D performing firms. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 586–616.     

Productivity Gains from Offshore Outsourcing: Evidence from the Chinese Manufacturing Industry

Using the Cobb–Douglas production function and vertical specialization share, the present paper measures the productivity spillover effects of offshore outsourcing in the Chinese manufacturing industry. We examine different production factors and the degree of openness by dividing the Chinese manufacturing industry into five major categories: capital‐intensive business, technological‐intensive business, labor‐intensive business, open business and non‐open business. The results show that offshore outsourcing is positively associated with productivity in the Chinese manufacturing industry as a whole, but less so in labor‐intensive industries and more in capital‐intensive industries. Moreover, the positive impact of outsourcing on productivity is slightly higher in open industries than in non‐open industries. These results shed light on the differential spillover effects of offshore outsourcing on productivity. Our findings suggest that outsourcing structure is important to China's long‐run competitive advantage. China's policy‐makers should encourage further offshore capital‐intensive and technology‐intensive activities and focus more on outward‐oriented offshore businesses.     

High productivity before or after exports? An empirical analysis of Korean manufacturing firms

This study investigates whether exporting is a cause or an effect of high productivity of firms’ in the Korean manufacturing industries. For this purpose, a panel database is assembled with 1335 firms from eight Korean manufacturing industries during 1997–2003. Evidence that high productivity causes exporting, referred to as self-selection, is found in three out of eight industries. However, we do not find support for the hypothesis that high productivity is affected by exporting, except in one industry. Sunk-cost or previous-export-experience effect on the current export status is statistically significant and robust across industries unlike that of firms’ productivity and size.     

Productivity, efficiency, scale economies and technical change: A new decomposition analysis of TFP applied to the Japanese prefectures

This paper aims to examine the productivity change of the Japanese economy using the data pertaining to the 47 prefectures during the period 1981–2000. The decomposition analysis of the Hicks–Moorsteen–Bjurek productivity index is conducted to explore the sources of the productivity change. In summary, technical change and efficiency change are two of the most important components driving procyclical productivity. We find that relative their importance varies over periods. Supply shocks captured by technical change component caused upturns in productivity in the mid and late 1980s and in 1999 and 2000. Supply shocks also caused downturns in the early and mid 1990s. On the other hand, demand shocks captured by efficiency change component drove upturns of productivity in 1984, 1990 and 1996, when supply shocks were not detected. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 617–634.     

Wholesale pricing in a small open economy

Summary This paper addresses the empirical analysis of wholesale profit margins using data of the Dutch wholesale sector, 1986. At the heart of the analysis is the typical nature of wholesale production: wholesalers do not produce a tangible product, but offer a service capacity. This has an immediate impact on the identification, interprelation and measurement of determinants of profit variations. A model is set up to explain variations in wholesale profit margins, which is inspired by two widely applied approaches to industry pricing: the behavioural mark-up model and the marginalist price-cost model.The authors gratefully acknowledge extensive criticisms by Johan Koerts and Arjen van Witteloostuijn and research assistance by Michield Eijkhout who also co-authored earlier research reports. The Central Bureau of Statistics is acknowledged for providing access to their census data of the Dutch wholesale trade. Remaining errors are as usual the sole responsibility of the authors     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SYNCHRONISATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES FOR DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WITH THE WORLD BUSINESS CYCLE

Globalisation brought about worldwide changes, including economic and financial integration between countries. The objective of this paper is to establish if there is synchronisation between developed and developing countries with the world cycle. Research results show that business cycles have become less volatile after globalisation, but there is not much consensus on whether business cycles have become less or more synchronised since globalisation. Little research has been done on co‐movement between emerging markets, such as South Africa, and the world business cycle. This paper derives common factors for developed and developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to output, consumption and investment data, which represents the countries' business cycles. The empirical analysis shows co‐movement between some countries and the world business cycle (G7 countries as proxy). The results suggest that there are idiosyncratic and globally common shocks, which play different roles over time in different countries. The paper goes on to suggest that there are clear differences in how developed and emerging markets co‐move with the world business cycle. A key finding is that the co‐movement between developing economies and the world business cycle has increased since globalisation. This research also confirms previous research that most economies follow the world business cycle when large shocks – such as the recent economic downturn – occur. This has implications for forecasting the business cycle, especially in times of economic turmoil.     

Leverage, performance and capital adequacy ratio in Taiwan's banking industry

We examine the relation between firms’ financial structures and their risky investment strategies in Taiwan's banking industry. Regressions cover two subperiods: before the first financial reform (1996–2000) and after the first financial reform (2001–2006), to address the impacts of the first financial reform on banking firms’ financial structures. Our first result demonstrates that the restrictions on CAR have indeed affected firms’ risky investment strategies, as market share and leverage are positively related. Second, the firm performance is significantly and positively related to firm size, leverage and financial cost. Finally, the regression results show that financial structures for banking firms are positively related to the states of business cycle (i.e., cyclical). The positive signs coincide with Proposition 4 in our analytical model.