Relaxing Hukou: Increased labor mobility and China’s economic geography

China’s Hukou system poses severe restrictions on labor mobility. This paper assesses the possible consequences of relaxing these restrictions for China’s internal economic geography. We base our analysis on a new economic geography (NEG) model. First, we estimate the important model parameters using data on 264 of China’s prefecture cities. Second, we use these estimates as inputs in a simulation of the full NEG model under different labor mobility regimes. We find that increased labor mobility leads to more pronounced core–periphery outcomes. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chongqing in particular will further strengthen their dominant place in China’s urban hierarchy. In addition, two other groups of cities can be distinguished: those in China’s populous heartland offering preferential access to China’s enormous internal market, and more peripheral cities that are better shielded from competition with China’s economic heartland by virtue of their relative remoteness.     

Measuring immigration's effects on labor demand: A reexamination of the Mariel Boatlift

Why do immigration shocks tend to have benign effects on native wages? One reason is that immigrants as consumers contribute to the demand for their services. We model an economy where workers spend their wages on a locally produced good, then test it via a reexamination of the 1980 “Mariel Boatlift” using Wacziarg's Channel Transmission methodology. Current Population Survey data on workers in 9 different retail labor markets and Survey of Buying Power data on retail spending by consumers in Miami and four comparison cities are used. We find strong evidence that the Mariel Boatlift augmented labor demand.     

The Traditional Industrial Sector in Developing Countries: An Update on Its Role and Functioning

A bstract . In the theory of urban labor markets in less developed countries , levels of traditional industrial sector incomes, are a key determinant of modern sector skilled wages (directly through the external labor market) and unskilled wages (indirectly through operations of internal labor markets ). Data on traditional sector incomes for 40 urban areas are assembled from a variety of sources; the quality of these data and needs for future data collection are critically appraised. The data are then used to conduct a preliminary test of the labor market model. In general, the predictions of the model are supported by these tests     

Minimum wages,wages and employment in various sectors in Honduras

This paper contributes to our understanding of the impact of minimum wages on labor markets of developing countries, where there are often multiple minimum wages and compliance is weak. We examine how changes in more than 22 minimum wages over 1990–2004 affect employment, unemployment and average wages of workers in different sectors, defined by coverage under the legislation. The evidence suggests that minimum wages are effectively enforced only in medium and large-scale firms, where a 1% increase in the minimum wage leads to an increase of 0.29% in the average wage and a relatively large reduction in employment of ? 0.46%. We find that public sector wages emulate minimum wage trends but the higher cost of labor does not reduce employment there. There are no discernable effects of minimum wages on the wages of workers in small-firms or the self-employed; yet, higher minimum wages may create more unemployment. We conclude that (even under our upper bound estimate of the effect on the wages of workers) the total earnings of workers in the large-firm covered sector fall with higher minimum wages in Honduras, which warrants a policy dialogue on the structure and level of minimum wages.     

Urban Wages and Labor Market Agglomeration

Using the 5% public use micro sample of the 1990 U.S. census, we find that observationally equivalent workers in the manufacturing sector earn higher wages when they are in urban labor markets that have a larger share of national or metropolitan employment in their same occupation and industry groups. Quantitatively, the effect is large, with an elasticity (measured at the means) of between 1.2 and 3.6 for these effects. We interpret the willingness of firms to pay more for equivalent workers in dense markets as evidence of an agglomeration economy in urban labor.     

Wages and the City. Evidence from Italy

We analyze empirically the impact of urban agglomeration on Italian wages. Using micro-data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth for the years 1995, 1998, 2000 and 2002 on more than 22,000 employees distributed in 242 randomly drawn local labor markets, we test whether the structure of wages varies with urban scale. We find that every additional 100,000 inhabitants in the local labor market raises earnings by 0.1 percent. The use of a geographical approach enables us to state that this effect decays very rapidly with distance, losing significance beyond approximately 12 kilometers. We also find that urbanization does not affect returns to experience and that it reduces returns to education and to tenure with current firm, while providing a premium to worker supervisors.     

Effect of Immigrant Nurses on Labor Market Outcomes of US Nurses

We study the effect of immigration of foreign-trained, registered nurses (RNs) on the employment and wages of US-trained RNs. We use the “area” approach and study effects of immigration in labor markets defined by the state. We find substantial evidence that immigration by foreign-trained nurses increases the supply of nurses and that this increase in supply is associated with a decrease in annual earnings. Estimates suggest that a 10% increase in supply due to immigration is associated with a 1-4% decrease in annual earnings, although most estimates were not statistically significant and we did not find a similar association between an increase in supply and wages.     

Housing tenure and labor market impacts: The search goes on

We develop two search-theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the Oswald hypothesis, the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes, and compare their predictions to three extant theories. The five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels. Using a suitable instrumental variable strategy, we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions. We find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed, they also have lower wages, all else equal, compared to renters. In addition, higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages. The outcome of a horserace between our new search-theoretic models is mixed—the wage-posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes. Overall, we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership. Because this is the case, regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work. And while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters, from the viewpoint of society, higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production, among other benefits.     

Chinese Migrant Farmers in the Russian Far East: Impact on Rural Labor Markets

The close proximity of China and Russia, the activities of Chinese farmers, and the reduction in Russian labor resources have created job opportunities for Chinese workers in the Russian Far East (RFE). Chinese workers fill a labor shortage in agriculture, but little research has been done on them. We developed an econometric model to test the effects of Chinese intermittent migration on labor markets in the RFE. We found the proximity of Chinese to Russian farms reduces wages for both Russian and Chinese workers and increases their part-time employment on Russian farms. The greater availability of Chinese workers in the region results in lower number of family members working on Russian farms. Thus, the influx of Chinese workers may contribute to demographic shifts in the Russian population.     

The impact of minimum wages on wages,work and poverty in Nicaragua

In this paper we use an individual- and household-level panel data set to study the impact of changes in legal minimum wages on a host of labor market outcomes including: a) wages and employment, b) transitions of workers across jobs (in the covered and uncovered sectors) and employment status (unemployment and out of the labor force), and c) transitions into and out of poverty. We find that changes in the legal minimum wage affect only those workers whose initial wage (before the change in minimum wages) is close to the minimum. For example, increases in the legal minimum wage lead to significant increases in the wages and decreases in employment of private covered sector workers who have wages within 20% of the minimum wage before the change, but have no significant impact on wages in other parts of the distribution. The estimates from the employment transition equations suggest that the decrease in covered private sector employment is due to a combination of layoffs and reductions in hiring. Most workers who lose their jobs in the covered private sector as a result of higher legal minimum wages leave the labor force or go into unpaid family work; a smaller proportion find work in the public sector. We find no evidence that these workers become unemployed.Our analysis of the relationship between the minimum wage and household income finds: a) increases in legal minimum wages increase the probability that a poor worker's family will move out of poverty, and b) increases in legal minimum wages are more likely to reduce the incidence of poverty and improve the transition from poor to non-poor if they impact the head of the household rather than the non-head; this is because the head of the household is less likely than a non-head to lose his/her covered sector employment due to a minimum wage increase and because those heads that do lose covered sector employment are more likely to go to another paying job than are non-heads (who are more likely to go into unpaid family work or leave the labor force).     

Thick-market effects and churning in the labor market: Evidence from US cities

Workers change occupation and industry less often in more densely populated areas, a relationship that had not been previously reported. This reduced-form result is robust to standard demographic controls, as well as to including aggregate measures of human capital and sectoral mix. Analysis of displaced worker surveys shows that this relationship is present in cases of involuntary separation as well. In contrast, we actually find the opposite result (higher rates of occupational and industrial switching) for the subsample of younger workers. These results provide evidence consistent with increasing-returns-to-scale matching in labor markets. Results from a back-of-the-envelope calibration suggest that this mechanism has an important role in raising both wages and returns to experience in denser areas.     

A Meta‐Analytic Assessment of the Effect of Immigration on Wages

Abstract.  In our increasingly interconnected and open world, international migration is becoming an important socioeconomic phenomenon for many countries. Since the early 1980s, many studies about the impact of immigration on host labour markets have been undertaken. Borjas (2003 , The labor demand curve is downward sloping: reexamining the impact of immigration on the labor market. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(4): 1335–1374) noted that the estimated effect of immigration on the wage of native workers varies widely from study to study and sometimes even within the same study. In addition, these effects cluster around zero. Such a small effect is a rather surprising outcome, given that in a closed competitive labour market an increase in labour supply may be expected to exert a downward pressure on wages. We revisit this issue by applying meta‐analytic techniques to a set of 18 papers, which altogether generated 348 estimates of the percentage change in the wage of a native worker with respect to a 1 percentage point increase in the ratio of immigrants over native workers. While many studies in our database employ US data, estimates are also obtained from Germany, The Netherlands, France, Norway, Austria, Israel and Australia. Our analysis shows that results vary across countries and are inter alia related to the type of modelling approach. Technical issues such as publication bias and quality of the estimates are addressed as well.     

Wage determination in the union and nonunion sectors.

This study contains estimates of wage equations for white male union and nonunion employees. The authors find that nonunion wages are generally more responsive than union wages to individuals' education and experience and to regional price-level variation. Despite those differences, however, estimates of union-nonunion wage differentials based on these separate equations do not differ greatly from a differential obtained from a union dummy variable in an equation based on combined union and nonunion observations. Union-nonunion differentials vary widely across occupational groups and are generally larger in the lower skilled and more highly unionized occupations. The results for manufacturing, for which additional industry data are available, indicate a negative impact of high concentration ratios on the wages of all workers and a greater impact of establishment size on nonunion than on union wages. Data were drawn from the May 1973 Current Population Survey.     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Residential Choice, Mobility, and the Labor Market

There is substantial evidence suggesting that the process of suburbanization creates new job opportunities that are not equally exploited by all workers. In order to explain this phenomenon, a simple model is developed which incorporates borrowing constraints as an important restriction on moving decisions, obstructing the necessary labor flows between jurisdictions required to equalize (net) wages. In essence, people who cannot borrow will be restricted in terms of their capability of changing residence location and therefore will have limited possibilities of working in distant labor markets, or they will be subject to excessive commuting. Furthermore, the labor allocation induced by households' behavior facing these constraints affects consumer welfare, production, and producers' profits. The outcomes with perfect credit markets and with borrowing restrictions are calculated and the economic welfare levels are compared. As wages are flexible, they adjust to reflect the relative scarcity of workers present in each jurisdiction. Consequently, some of the negative effects of the borrowing constraints are compensated, so the outcomes cannot be easily compared. Some numerical examples are constructed to have an idea of the possible outcomes under different conditions. Finally, it is found that allowing for moving cost deductions from taxable income may help to alleviate the problem.     

With Friends Like These: Endogenous Labor Market Segregation with Homogeneous, Nonprejudiced Agents

In the economics literature, labor market segregation is typically assumed to arise either from prejudice ( Becker 1971 ) or from group differences in human capital accumulation ( Benabou 1993 ; Durlauf 2006 ; Fryer 2006 ). Many sociological studies, by contrast, consider social network structure as an embodiment of various forms of social capital, including the creation of obligations, information channels, and enforceable trust ( Coleman 1988 ; Portes and Sensenbrenner 1993 ). When firms hire by referral, social network segregation can lead to labor market segregation ( Tilly 1998 ). Various social network structures may arise from the actions of self-interested individuals ( Watts and Strogatz 1998 ; Jackson 2006 ); by incorporating concepts of social capital into an economic framework of profit-maximizing firms, this article develops a model of labor markets in which segregation arises endogenously even though agents are homogeneous and have no dislike for each other. Firms hire through referrals, and can enforce discipline by bribing a referrer to prevent a hiree from getting any outside job offers from other friends if he or she shirks. This is possible only if social networks are reasonably closed, so that the referee knows a majority of his or her friends' friends. By segregating into small communities, workers can more effectively create closed social networks. Social networks with different reservation wages will receive different wages; firms can induce such segregation and wage discrimination in the interest of profit. Workers may not benefit from such segregation, except as a best response to being in a society where it already exists; the "friends" in these social networks act as a worker discipline device, and in this way treat each other inimically.     

Labor market institutions and inflation volatility in the euro area

Despite having had the same currency for many years, EMU countries still have quite different inflation dynamics. In this paper we explore one possible reason: country specific labor market institutions, giving rise to different inflation volatilities. When unemployment insurance schemes differ, as they do in EMU, reservation wages react differently in each country to area-wide shocks. This implies that real marginal costs and inflation also react differently. We report evidence for EMU countries supporting the existence of a cross-country link over the cycle between labor market structures on the one side and real wages and inflation on the other. We then build a DSGE model that replicates the data evidence. The inflation volatility differentials produced by asymmetric labor markets generate welfare losses at the currency area level of approximately 0.3% of steady state consumption.     

Consumption and labor supply

We present a new econometric model of aggregate demand and labor supply for the United States. We also analyze the allocation full wealth among time periods for households distinguished by a variety of demographic characteristics. The model is estimated using micro-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys supplemented with price information obtained from the Consumer Price Index. An important feature of our approach is that aggregate demands and labor supply can be represented in closed form while accounting for the substantial heterogeneity in behavior that is found in household-level data. As a result, we are able to explain the patterns of aggregate demand and labor supply in the data despite using a parametrically parsimonious specification.     

Seniority, external labor markets, and faculty pay

We estimate the returns to seniority (the wage-tenure profile) for university faculty, and the degree to which these returns respond to entry-level salaries (or opportunity wages)—a relationship unexplored in work to date. Using data on faculty at a Big Ten university (ours), we estimate elasticities of senior-faculty salaries with respect to entry-level salaries, and find that these elasticities decline with seniority. The evidence provides an explanation of faculty salary compression and suggests the importance of controlling for entry-level salaries in obtaining estimates of the returns to seniority.     

Dualism in the German Labor Market?A Nonparametric Analysis with Panel Data

A bstract . Orthodoxy in economics gives pride of place to the hypothesis of compensating differentials. Applied to job quality criteria, such as wage levels, job stability, and wage growth, the compensating differentials hypothesis implies that negative or positive job quality characteristics should— ceteris paribus —rarely coincide. Originating in the late 1960s from studies of American inner-city labor markets, dualist labor market theory has raised doubts about this assumption. At its core, dualist analysis proposes that a dualism exists between a primary' labor market where "jobs possess several of the following traits: high wages, good working conditions, employment stability and job security, equity and due process in the administration of work, and chances for advancement" and a secondary market where jobs "tend to involve low wages, poor working conditions, considerable variability in employment, and little opportunity to advance" (Doeringer and Piore 1971). In the 1980s, there were several attempts to apply dual or segmented labor market theory to European economies, including the German labor market. The mixed findings of these analyses have cast doubt upon the transferability of dualist theory to these contexts.