三驾马车的拉动作用评估

本文分析了构成支出法国内生产总值的三大需求(最终消费支出、资本形成总额、货物和服务净出口)占GDP的比重不能视为三驾马车消费、投资、出口对GDP拉动作用的原因.本文通过把竞争型投入产出表拆分成非竞争型投入产出表,利用相应的投入产出模型测算三驾马车的拉动作用.测算结果表明,2002年以来,消费的拉动作用在下降,出口的拉动作用在上升.必须扩大消费的拉动作用,使经济发展方式向消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变.     

论GDP的作用和缺陷

GDP（国内生产总值）是SNA的一个核心指标。随着SNA在各国的普遍使用,有关GDP的作用和缺陷,受到许多研究者的广泛关注。GDP到底能做什么和不能做什么？GDP到底有什么作用和缺陷？GDP到底应如何定位和评价？GDP到底是应加以改进还是应淘汰废弃？本文针对这些问题从传统经济增长观和可持续发展的经济增长观出发,具体、深入和客观地剖析了GDP在衡量经济增长数量和质量,在实施可持续发展战略和衡量居民生活水平等方面的作用和缺陷。我们认为对GDP的任何推崇、应用、改进或淘汰都要联系具体问题具体分析,不能以点概全。     

论中国实施绿色GDP与对策

分析我国能源资源低效率因素,借鉴外国先进绿色GDP经验,提出了我国实施绿色GDP的对策,应采用价值工程原理与方法,以利于绿色GDP持续增长。     

可持续发展与绿色GDP

在衡量经济增长的各项指标中,人们普遍首选GDP,而现行的GDP体现不了当今社会倡导的可持续发展的思想。针对这一问题,本文在论述了可持续发展思想及现行GDP及其缺陷的情况下,简要阐述了绿色GDP的概念及其核算的内容及方法。     

Assessing the quality of regression estimates through a test for signal-to-noise and its application to detecting harmful collinearity

This paper explores a technique for assessing the quality of least-squares estimates based on the intuitively appealing concept of signal-to-noise. A test for adequate signal-to-noise is developed which complements the usual tests of significance and confidence regions. Under frequently encountered circumstances this test detects data inadequacies causing inflated parameter variances. From this a test for harmful collinearity and/or ‘short data’ is developed and illustrated with an equation from the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model. Tables of critical values for the test are provided in an appendix.     

物流费用占GDP比重的探讨

通过对物流费用占GDP比重的分析，指出了我国物流费用占国内生产总值比重偏低的原因，并指明了调查统计的两种途径。     

CPI与GDP相关性探讨

在目前情况下,CPI涨幅与GDP增幅正在进行一轮又一轮的波动。本文作者通过分析CPI运行特点,以及CPI涨幅和GDP增幅两者的变化关系,来重点分析CPI的构成,引起价格改革的系列因素、供求关系以及增长动力的变化,政府宏观调控水平等等。     

我国GDP增长率序列中趋势成分和周期成分的分解

本文使用H-P滤波、时间趋势平稳、ARMA趋势平稳和状态空间分解等趋势分解方法，对我国GDP增长率序列进行了趋势分解，并对各种周期成分进行了对比检验。我们发现，这些分解方法得到的周期成分具有类似的统计性质，但就残差序列的白噪声检验来说，双变量状态空间模型的分解效果最为显著，因此应该采用状态空间模型进一步分析我国的经济周期性质。     

Structural estimates of the intergenerational education correlation

Using a structural dynamic programming model, we investigate the relative importance of family background variables and individual specific abilities in explaining cross‐sectional differences in schooling attainments and wages. Each type of ability is the sum of one component correlated with family background variables and a residual (orthogonal) component which is purely individual specific. Household background variables (especially parents' education) account for 68% of the explained cross‐sectional variations in schooling attainments, while ability correlated with background variables accounts for 17% and pure individual specific ability accounts for 15%. Interestingly, individual differences in wages are mostly explained by pure individual specific abilities as they account for as much as 73% of the explained variations in wages. Family background variables account for only 19%, while ability endowments correlated with family background account for 8%. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing

We develop new methods for representing the asset-pricing implications of stochastic general equilibrium models. We provide asset-pricing counterparts to impulse response functions and the resulting dynamic value decompositions (DVDs). These methods quantify the exposures of macroeconomic cash flows to shocks over alternative investment horizons and the corresponding prices or investors’ compensations. We extend the continuous-time methods developed in Hansen and Scheinkman (2012) and Borovi?ka et al. (2011) by constructing discrete-time, state-dependent, shock-exposure and shock-price elasticities as functions of the investment horizon. Our methods are applicable to economic models that are nonlinear, including models with stochastic volatility.     

基于GDP水平的区域技术创新效率测度

区域技术创新效率是区域发展的动力,是衡量区域技术创新运营机制有效程度的重要标准,反应一个地区的研发水平和投入资源的利用率。通过建立区域技术创新效率指标体系,根据2009年我国30个省、市、自治区人均GDP构造系数矩阵,确定区域间的竞合关系;应用带有系数矩阵的交叉效率模型对2009年我国30个省、市、自治区的技术创新效率进行测度得出交叉效率矩阵,最后应用熵值法确定权重并得出最终效率。实证结果表明全部30个地区的技术创新效率均具有提升空间,该方法可以对所有区域进行充分排序且与传统仁慈型和进取型交叉效率方法相比更符合实际情况。     

ARIMA模型在中国GDP预测中的应用

文章对我国1978-2015年国内生产总值进行了分析。运用Box-Jenkins方法建立了ARIMA模型。通过对数据的平稳性检验、模型参数识别与检验、模型检验等综合分析,确立了ARIMA(2,1,0)模型。该模型具有简单实用、预测精度高的特点,能恰当描述我国GDP(国内生产总值)状况,并对"十三五"期间的GDP增长速度做出短期预测,为政府部门制定"十三五"期间的经济计划提供依据和参考。     

Forecast revisions of Mexican inflation and GDP growth

We analyze the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in the Banco de México’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the period 1995–2009. The forecasts are for the current and the following year, and comprise an unbalanced three-dimensional panel with multiple individual forecasters, target years, and forecast horizons. The fixed-event nature of the forecasts enables us to examine their efficiency by looking at the revision process. The panel structure allows us to control for aggregate shocks and to construct a measure of the news that impacted expectations in the period under study. We find that respondents anchor to their initial forecasts, updating their revisions smoothly as they receive more information. In addition, they do not seem to use publicly-known information in an efficient manner. These inefficiencies suggest clear areas of opportunity for improving the accuracy of the forecasts, for instance by taking into account the positive autocorrelation found in forecast revisions.     

物流成本占GDP的比例分析

从2001年美国物流总成本占GDP的比例突然下降入手,采用标杆管理法,引用美国的物流成本占GDP的比例,对比评价我国总体的物流发展水平,从而探寻物流成本占GDP比重的合适比例。     

Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors

Recent work finds evidence that the volatility of the U.S. economy fell dramatically around the first quarter of 1984. We trace the timing of this so-called “Great Moderation” across many subsectors of the economy in order to better understand its root cause. We find that the interest rate sensitive sectors generally experience a much earlier volatility decline than other large sectors of the economy. The changes in Federal Reserve stabilization policies that occurred during the early 1980s support the view that an improved monetary policy played an important role in stabilizing real economic activity. We find only mild evidence that “good luck” was important and little evidence to support the claim that improved inventory management was important.     

中国地区GDP增长统计的真实性检验

本文利用中国28个地区(省、市、自治区)近二十年10个经济基础变量的平行数据,运用主成分分析和固定影响变截距模型的经验分析方法,为中国GDP增长的真实性讨论提供了地区一级数据的检验。我们发现,从整个时期来看,中国地区的GDP统计数据没有出现违背经济规律的统计特征,其中也包括能源增长与经济增长的关系;年度的特殊影响也不太严重,特别是质疑最多的1998年及以后各年并无显著的正影响;地区的特殊影响虽然比较大,但也许能从地区经济结构及变化等方面的差异上得到解释,未必成为GDP数据存在造假的证据。     

Examining the antecedents of work connectivity behavior during non-work time

In this study, we draw from human agency theory to develop the construct of work-related connectivity behavior during non-work time, and conduct a survey to investigate the organizational and individual antecedents of this behavior. Data from 139 full-time working adults in the marketing division of a media organization revealed that work connectivity behavior after-hours is significantly related to the distribution of wireless enabled devices by the organization and organizational norms about connectivity. Our results also indicate that individual characteristics exert different levels of influence depending on the functionality of the device through which connectivity behavior is enacted. Polychronicity was more strongly related to laptop connectivity behavior than to handheld connectivity behavior, whereas role integration preference is only related to handheld connectivity behavior. We also found that organization members were more likely to exhibit continued workplace connectivity behavior during generic “downtime” activities such as traveling or commuting. These results have important theoretical and practical implications.     

基于灰色系统分析的咸宁市经济发展预测

文章将2001-2009年咸宁市GDP统计数据构成原始数据列,建立灰色预测数学模型,检验模型的合格性,并利用模型进行外推预测,从而对十二五期间咸宁的GDP进行预测,预测结果:咸宁市2015年的GDP规模将达到1020亿。     

小议建筑工程预结算审核及存在的问题

工程造价的预结算审核是合理确定工程造价的必要程序及重要手段。文章在分析工程造价中存在问题的基础上,探讨了建筑工程预结算审核的内容及方法和存在的问题。