Handing Over the Keys: A Perspective on Mortgage Default Research

This paper is the text of the 1992 Presidential Address for the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association. A comparative evaluation of mortgage default research finds that both the residential and commercial markets evolved from informal underwriting rules, to formalized (though unvalidated) ratios and rules of thumb, to early risk ratings based upon empirical evidence, to gener-alizable econometric models of default, to option-based pricing models. The commercial market lagged the residential market by about 10 to 20 years at first but is now only about five years behind. The survey finds that research and progress in understanding mortgage credit risk has been precipitated by a public policy need or mandate, data availability, and adequate technology. The absence of any one of these factors has hindered progress in the past. Finally, six emerging issues in default research are identified and discussed: (1) the degree of "ruth-lessness" with which default is exercised, (2) loan recourse, (3) the magnitude and timing of revenues and losses associated with default, (4) loan modification, (5) default in a portfolio context, and (6) leasehold default. Progress in these areas will enhance the efficiency of both the residential and commercial markets.     

Agricultural credit problems and policies during the transition to a market economy in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper assesses the problems of financing Central and Eastern European agriculture during the present transitionary period and the role of government in this process. Initially the paper looks at why credit markets work imperfectly, even in well developed market economies, focusing on problems related to asymmetric information, adverse selection, moral hazard, credit rationing, optimal debt instrument choice and initial wealth. It shows why these and related problems may cause transaction costs to be so high that credit rationing and high interest rates are rational and efficient responses by lenders to the imperfect information problems of the agricultural sector. A series of specific, transition-related issues are then discussed which have worsened these problems within the Central and Eastern European agricultural sector. The potential roles of governments in solving these issues and actual observed interventions by Central and Eastern Europe governments through credit subsidies, loan guarantees and specialised agricultural lending institutions are analysed. Finally, the paper discusses how financial market innovations have solved some of the credit market problems and derives the implications for government policies.     

Credit Unions: Fringe Suppliers or Cournot Competitors?

Recent work has demonstrated the competitive relationship between credit unions and banks in consumer financial services. One issue underlying the nature of competition between the two, however, concerns the most appropriate way to model their interactions.Two possible approaches are the dominant-firm price-leadership model and the generalized Cournot model. In the former model, credit unions act as fringe suppliers who are price-takers in a homogeneous product market. In the latter, they possess (limited) market power. Oneway to distinguish the two is by examining the impact of credit union market shares on their pricing, as the two models imply differing effects. Our results are more consistent with the ``credit unions as fringe suppliers' view. Using a pooled cross-section time seriesof 77 small local consumer lending markets throughout the U.S., each with 10 observations over 5 years, the focus is on a loan product ex ante thought to be sold in local markets, unsecured (non-credit card) loans. For this product, increasing credit union market sharesreduces credit union loan rates, consistent with a fringe supplier hypothesis.     

Self-Selection and Discrimination in Credit Markets

In this article we make two contributions toward a better understanding of the causes and consequences of discrimination in credit markets. First, we develop an explicit theoretical model of loan underwriting in which lenders use a simple Bayesian updating process to evaluate applicant creditworthiness. Using a signal correlated with an applicant's true creditworthiness and their prior beliefs about the distribution of credit risk in the applicant pool, lenders are able to evaluate an applicant's expected or "inferred" creditworthiness to determine which loans to approve and which to deny. Second, we explicitly model the self-selection behavior of individuals. Because these decisions shape lenders' prior beliefs about the distribution of credit risk, they also affect the Bayesian posterior from which lenders compute an applicant's inferred creditworthiness, implying that statistical discrimination can arise endogenously. As an example, we show that in a market in which only some lenders have Beckerian tastes for discrimination there are conditions under which lenders without racial animus will also discriminate. Our model's flexibility makes it ideal for analyzing a wide variety of empirical and policy questions.     

The Integration of Mortgage Markets and Capital Markets

In this paper, we develop a model to predict the impact of deregulation in the form of relaxing interest rate control on the integration between the mortgage credit market and the general credit market. The model is tested through the examination of the long-term Granger-like equilibrium relationship between mortgage interest rates and general interest rates in the pre-1980 regulated vs. the post-1980 deregulated periods. It is shown that the level of regulation, in the form of targeting general interest rate levels, contributes to the segmentation of the mortgage market from the capital market. To test this model, we compare the relationship between mortgage interest rates and general interest rates around 1980 where major control on interest rate levels in capital markets was lifted. Using Engle and Granger's procedure to overcome the estimation problem from nonstationarity in the interest rate series, we are able to find that the two interest rates were cointegrated after 1980 but not before. More importantly, it appears that the two markets were already integrated before the full development of the secondary mortgage markets between 1984 and 1987. Therefore, we conclude that the bulk of the integration between the mortgage and capital markets was completed as a result of the removal of interest rate controls around 1980, in contrast with previous studies that find integration occurred during the mid-1980s primarily as a result of the rapid development of the secondary mortgage markets.     

Explaining the Credit Union Entry Decision,and Implications for Performance

Earlier research exploring rural bank entry decisions suggests that market size and its growth seem to be major explanatory factors. In addition, the role of leading bank holding companies is found to be important in stimulating entry of smaller rivals. This article finds that credit union entry responds in a similar way, and in addition that the state-level financial regulatory climate matters. An ordered-probit analysis of credit union numbers yields the intuitive result that credit unions possess little market power (even in rural markets where they might be expected to play a significant role), and what little there is can likely be eliminated by a third credit union in the market.      

Prospects for integrated soil fertility management using organic and inorganic inputs: evidence from smallholder African agricultural systems

This paper reviews current organic nutrient management practices and their integration with mineral fertilizers in Sub-Saharan Africa with a view to understanding the potential impacts on a range of input markets. A number of different organic nutrient management practices have been found to be technically and financially beneficial, but they differ considerably as to their effectiveness and resource requirements. A review of African smallholder experiences with integrated soil fertility management practices finds growing use, both indigenously and through participation in agricultural projects. Patterns of use vary considerably across heterogeneous agroecological conditions, communities and households, but are stimulated by profitable commercially oriented agricultural opportunities. The potential for integrated soil fertility management to expand markets for organic inputs, labor, credit, and fertilizer is explored. We found that there are few direct analyses of these links and indirect evidence at this point in time is inconclusive.     

Dynamic Credit Rationing in the Home Mortgage Market

In this study a model of dynamic credit rationing in the home mortgage market by a profit-maximizing financial institution is developed.
In the 1960s and 1970s it was widely believed that credit rationing was very important in the mortgage market. The recent deregulation and innovation in financial markets is belived to have resulted in a significant weakening of these availability effects. For the model developed it is shown that deposit diversification, such as the introduction of money market accounts in 1978, would tend to reduce the amount of any dynamic credit rationing that was occurring.     

Credit Availability and the Structure of the Homebuilding Industry

We investigate the role of disruptions to the structure of the homebuilding industry due to fluctuations in the availability of bank credit. We find a sustained decline in the large private homebuilder market share series over the period from 1988 to 1993 when many banks with deteriorated health reduced their lending in order to raise capital ratios. Regression analysis at the metropolitan statistical area level supports the hypothesis that, in areas where banks were less well capitalized and had more problem construction loans, the market shares of large private homebuilders that relied primarily on bank credit to finance their production suffered at the expense of the public homebuilders that had better access to external funds, in large part due to their direct access to public capital markets.     

Investor Sentiment,Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns

This article examines the relation between investor sentiment and returns in private markets. Relative to more liquid public markets, private investment markets exhibit significant limits to arbitrage that restrict an investor's ability to counteract mispricing. Using vector autoregressive models, we find a positive and economically significant relation between investor sentiment and subsequent private market returns. We provide further long‐horizon regression evidence suggesting that private commercial real estate markets are susceptible to prolonged periods of sentiment‐induced mispricing as the inability to short‐sell in periods of overvaluation and restricted access to credit in periods of undervaluation prevents arbitrageurs from entering the market.     

A LOCATION MODEL WITH PREFERENCE FOR VARIETY*

We propose a new location model where consumers are allowed to make multiple purchases (i.e., one unit from each firm). This model may fit many markets (e.g. newspapers, credit cards) better than existing models. A common feature of these markets is that some consumers are loyal to one brand, while others consume more than one product. Our model yields predictions consistent with this observation. If firms are allowed to choose their locations on the interval, then spatial differentiation may not be maximal and in some cases it may even be minimal. Thus, under certain conditions, we restore Hotelling's Principle of Minimum Differentiation.     

Mobile cellular communications in the Southern African region

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries have mobile markets ranging from one of the world's largest GSM networks to fledging new services. Market structures, the extent of competition and the scope of regulation also vary widely. South Africa dominates regional cellular development with over 90% of SADCs nearly three million subscribers. Major factors driving cellular growth are:

• 1.Substitution for fixed line for customers on waiting lists.
• 2.The attractiveness of “prepaid”, especially for people without credit options.
• 3.The potential for roaming.

Regulation has been light-handed and not consistent across the region, missing a number of opportunities to boost mobile cellular access through license conditions, competition and tariff limitations. If all tariffs fell to the lowest level in the region, then the number of subscribers (excluding South Africa) by the year 2005 could be nearly four times the estimate at current tariffs. With the effective regulation and market stimulation, the region's mobile subscribers could exceed the number of fixed subscribers in only a few years.     

Financing Choice and Liability Structure of Real Estate Investment Trusts

We conduct an analysis of public financial offerings of equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), with a focus on liability structure effects and whether or not firms target longer-run debt ratios. Our major findings are that (1) proceeds from equity offers are more likely to fund investment, whereas public debt offer proceeds are typically used to reconfigure the liability structure of the firm; (2) public debt issuers are often capital constrained and target total leverage ratios to retain an investment grade credit rating; and (3) the preoffer liability structure affects the issuance choice decision, in that firms with higher preoffer levels of secured (unsecured) debt tend to issue equity (public debt). Other notable findings are that the market for public REIT debt is integrated with the broader debt markets and that higher credit quality firms issue longer-maturing bonds.     

Market Share and Price Setting Behavior for Private Labels and National Brands

In this paper, we focus on the nature of demand and competitive response in the market for private label and national branded grocery products. Specifically,we employ less restrictive functional forms than usedin prior research. Specifically, we incorporateLA/AIDS demands and the corresponding price reactionequations to estimate consumer price sensitivities andsupply side price strategies for national brand andprivate label products. Oligopolistic priceinterdependence is explored further by specifyingbrand share, brand Herfindahl, and a measure of thestructure of the local retail markets in the supplyside relations to evaluate explicitly the impact ofmarket structure.In our empirical analysis, we estimate a system of market share and price equations simultaneously inorder to examine (i) the determinants of the demandresponse to pricing and promotion decisions and (ii)the determinants of private label and national brandpricing behavior. Using data for 143 food productcategories and 59 geographic markets, we develop amodel that captures the variation in privatelabel-national brand share and pricing acrosscategories and markets. Key findings include: (i)demand response to price and promotion is decidedlyasymmetric, (ii) price followship between privatelabels and national brands is positive, but notstrong, and (iii) markets characterized by highernational brand market share and higher supermarketconcentration tend to have higher prices forboth national brands and private labels.     

Risk management and finance along value chains of Small Island Developing States. Evidence from the Caribbean and the Pacific

The paper analyses agricultural risks and risk management in selected Small Island Developing States which are part of the African Caribbean Pacific country group. Focus is on the value chains of fruits, vegetables and spices. A survey was conducted in Grenada, Jamaica, Fiji and Vanuatu, aimed at identifying sources of risk which are most important to value chain stakeholders; the nature and quality of existing and potential risk management mechanisms; and the possibility of enhancing them in view of improving the functioning of the value chains. The sample included farmers, processors, traders, retailers, extension agents, Government officials and private services providers. Results reveal limited ability to handle price and production variability, due to lack of both horizontal and vertical co-ordination along value chains, reduced use of support services, notably credit and underinvestment in equipment. In addition, lack of demand contributes to make insurance markets incomplete and characterised by undersupply or lack of customised products. Promoting light forms of vertical and horizontal co-ordination, such as production contracts and producers’ associations, as well as value chain-based credit and finance may address some of the issues highlighted.     

Farmer organization,collective action and market access in Meso-America

Farmer organization and collective action are often seen as key factors in enhancing farmers’ access to markets. Often, too little attention is directed at (a) the most appropriate types of organization; (b) whether organization makes less or more sense in the case of producers of an undifferentiated commodity or a higher value product; (c) whether the public or private sector is best placed to support farmer organizations; and (d) the conditions necessary for ensuring their economic viability. Research in Mexico and Central America explored these issues for commodity maize and high value vegetables, respectively. The benefits of farmer organization are more evident in the vegetable sector, characterized by high transaction costs associated with market access. However, horticultural farmer organizations in Honduras and El Salvador include less than 5% of total horticultural producers. This is possibly due to farmer organizations’ limited business skills and non-replicable organizational models. There is less incentive for maize farmers to organize to access output markets as the transaction costs are relatively low. The benefits of maize farmer organization are clearer when it comes to accessing inputs such as credit, seed and fertilizer. Farmer organization is a critical factor in making markets work for the poor, but the role and timing of public and private investment in these organizations is poorly understood.     

On the Price Comovement of U.S. Residential Real Estate Markets

We investigate the comovement among Case‐Shiller Home Price Indices for 14 metropolitan areas between 1992 and 2008. We define the portion of this comovement deemed as fundamental (excessive) as the covariation that can (cannot) be attributed to common fundamental factors directly influencing real estate prices. We find that i) comovement among these markets considerably increased over the sample period, especially in the late 1990s; ii) this increase is mostly attributable to underlying systematic real and financial factors, consistent with a greater fundamental integration of those markets; and iii) excess comovement is a less important factor than commonly believed. We discuss the implications of these results for the evolution of U.S. real estate prices over the last two decades and the ongoing credit crisis.     

Determinants of Credit Spreads in Commercial Mortgages

This article examines the cross-sectional and time-series determinants of commercial mortgage credit spreads as well as the terms of the mortgages. Consistent with theory, our empirical evidence indicates that mortgages on property types that tend to be riskier and have greater investment flexibility exhibit higher spreads. The relationship between the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and spreads is relatively weak, which is probably due to the endogeneity of the LTV choice. However, the average LTV ratio per lender has a strong positive relation with credit spreads, which is consistent with the idea that lenders specialize in mortgages with either high or low levels of risk, and that high LTV mortgages require substantially higher spreads. Finally, we observe that spreads widen and mortgage terms become stricter after periods of poor performance of the real estate markets and after periods of greater default rates of outstanding real estate loans.     

Residential Mortgage Markets and the Cost of Mortgage Funds

Early federal housing finance policy appears to have been largely directed at making mortgages more marketable. The creation of FHA, FNMA and FHLMC were designed to homogenize the mortgage instrument and to develop a secondary market for it. Apparently because of a lack of demand for marketability by investors, extensive trading of mortgages has not developed. Nonetheless, the fantastic growth in mortgage pools (as well as the unanticipated growth in FNMA holdings) has increased competition in the supplying of some intermediation functions (mortgage bankers have greatly expanded originations and servicing), has improved interregional flows of mortgage funds, and has given mortgage borrowers a greater access to capital markets generally. The principal result has been a decline in the mortgage rate relative to other market rates, although the inflation-triggered explosion in the demand for mortgage funds in recent years appears to be offsetting the impact of the growth in federal credit broadly defined.     

The Effects of Charm Listing Prices on House Transaction Prices

As is the case for many different goods and services, it is common practice in many real estate markets for sellers to offer properties for sale at listing prices just below some round number price ( e.g. , $99,900 instead of $100,000). The academic marketing literature refers to this practice as "charm" pricing and suggests that this strategy is an attempt by sellers to take advantage of buyers' cognitive processes in which charm prices affect buyers' perceptions about the seller or the item being offered for sale. Although numerous papers in the housing economics literature have addressed the impact of the magnitude of listing price on observed house transaction prices, no prior published study has considered the impact of the design of listing prices in housing markets. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the effects of charm pricing on house transaction prices using sample data. The results provide some evidence that houses listed at certain charm prices sell for significantly greater transaction prices than those listed at round number prices.