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1.
This study examines a sample of 12,562 dual-rated local government bond issues including 6,104 split-rated issues to determine
which rating agency has the greatest impact on yields. Using a database of municipal bond issues from 1986 to 2002, we show
that Moody’s rated significantly more issues than S&P, and that Moody’s ratings were more conservative. However, from 1993
to 1997, there was a reduction in ratings disagreements and in Moody’s market share. Beginning in 1995, Moody’s received negative
publicity related to a Department of Justice anti-trust investigation. Moody’s appears to have responded by sharply increasing
their relative conservatism in 1997. From 1986 to 1994, Moody’s ratings had a greater impact on bond yields than S&P ratings,
but their dominant influence on yields disappears in the recent sample period from 1995 to 2002.
相似文献
Donna M. Dudney (Corresponding author)Email: |
2.
We analyse the reaction of the foreign exchange spot market to sovereign credit signals by Fitch, Moody’s and S&P during 1994–2010. We find that positive and negative credit news affects both the own-country exchange rate and other countries’ exchange rates. We provide evidence on unequal responses to the three agencies’ signals. Fitch signals induce the most timely market responses, and the market also reacts strongly to S&P negative outlook signals. Credit outlook and watch actions and multiple notch rating changes have more impact than one-notch rating changes. Considerable differences in the market reactions to sovereign credit events are highlighted in emerging versus developed economies, and in various geographical regions. 相似文献
3.
Motivated by the European debt crisis and the new European Union regulatory regime for the credit rating industry, we analyse differences of opinion in sovereign credit signals and their influence on European stock markets. Rating disagreements have a significant connection with subsequent negative credit actions by each agency. However, links among Moody’s/Fitch actions and their rating disagreements with other agencies have weakened in the post-regulation period. We also find that only S&P’s negative credit signals affect the own-country stock market and spill over to other European markets, but this is concentrated in the pre-regulation period. Stronger stock market reactions occur when S&P has already assigned a lower rating than Moody’s/Fitch prior to taking a further negative action. 相似文献
4.
In this paper we test the theory according to which multimarket contact is a crucial factor hampering competition among firms,
because it lowers the incentive to behave aggressively in one market if there is fear that rivals retaliate in other common
markets. We consider the Italian banking industry in the period 2002–2005, employing both market-level and firm-level data.
The empirical evidence supports theory predictions, since profitability is positively related to the average number of contacts
among banks, and appear to be higher for those credit institutions experiencing more links. This result has also policy implications,
given the increasing consolidation (and hence the growing number of interactions in local markets) that has characterized
this sector in the last years.
相似文献
Paolo CoccoreseEmail: |
5.
Nikolas Rokkanen 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2009,23(1):31-57
The paper examines the credit spread between government and corporate bonds at different maturities. Theoretical models assume
that credit risk premiums for high quality firms monotonously increase with maturity. We find evidence suggesting that bonds
issued at maturities attracting the highest issuance volumes tend to have credit risk premiums that are on average 10 to 15
basis points higher than issues at nonconventional maturities. These results point out a shortcoming of existing theoretical
models and show that the credit yield curve is not smooth, but affected by the local supply of issues at various parts of
the yield curve. In addition, the empirical evidence presented in this paper indicates that firms utilizing the bond markets
for funding could lower their funding costs by shifting the term of their debt away from the most commonly targeted maturities.
相似文献
Nikolas RokkanenEmail: |
6.
Kim Hiang Liow Kim Hin David Ho Muhammad Faishal Ibrahim Ziwei Chen 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2009,39(2):202-223
We study international correlation and volatility dynamics of publicly traded real estate securities using monthly returns
from 1984 and 2006. We also examine, for comparison, the correlations among the corresponding stock markets. A multivariate
dynamic conditional correlation model captures the time-varying correlation within the full period. We confirm lower correlations
between all real estate securities market returns than those between the stock market returns themselves. Some significant
variations and structural changes in the correlation structure happened within the sample period. We detect a strong and positive
connection between real estate securities market correlations and their conditional volatilities. We also find the international
correlation structure of real estate securities and the broader stock market are linked to each other. Our results have economic
motivations regarding the potential integration of international real estate securities markets and the possibility of including
information on changing correlations and volatilities to design more optimal portfolios for international real estate securities.
相似文献
Kim Hiang LiowEmail: |
7.
Arthur Allen George Sanders Donna Dudney 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2009,32(4):421-438
We investigate whether issuers that choose to forgo a bond rating suffer an interest cost penalty greater than the cost of
the rating. We use estimated ratings provided by Moody’s Investor Service to proxy for what the rating would have been if
it had been purchased. We find that the primary factors associated with an issuer’s decision to purchase a rating are the
rating expected by the issuer and the extent to which an issue is marketed locally. After controlling for self-selection bias,
we find that the issuers that forgo a rating do not suffer an interest cost penalty.
相似文献
Donna DudneyEmail: |
8.
By using an extension of the Fama and MacBeth cross-sectional regression model, this analysis examines the relationship between
stock returns and (i) a local beta, (ii) two global betas, and (iii) some firm-specific characteristics in the Chinese A-share
market. The results of the analysis suggest that neither the conditional local beta nor the global betas has a significant
relationship with stock returns in A-shares. Our findings indicate that firm factors, such as the book-to-market ratio and
firm size, are important in explaining stock returns. However, the size effect is sensitive to the specification of the model.
Finally, the results of sub-period tests indicate that the A-share market did not become increasingly integrated with either
the world stock markets or the Hong Kong stock market over the period 1995–2002.
相似文献
Yuenan WangEmail: |
9.
This paper explores empirically the usefulness of credit default swap (CDS) prices as market indicators. The sample of reference
entities consists of large, internationally active German banks and the observation period covers 3 years.
By analysing the explanatory power of three risk sources: idiosyncratic credit risk, systematic credit risk and liquidity
risk, we gain important insights into modeling the dynamics of CDS spreads. The impact of systematic risk, for example, has
three components; one is related to the overall state of the economy, another related to the risk of the internationally active
banking sector, and the third is an unobservable systematic factor.
Default probabilities, inferred from a tractable reduced form model for CDS spreads, are compared with expected default frequencies
from the Moody’s KMV model. The results lend empirical support to the hypothesis that structural models can be less informative
than reduced-form models of CDS spreads in the case of banks with major investment banking activities as the leverage loses
explanatory power.
Although the CDS market appears to have matured over the observation period, during certain periods premiums for liquidity
risk can increase substantially thus limiting the value of CDS spreads as market indicators. We conclude that equity prices
and CDS premia should be considered together to fully exploit the information content of both market indicators and to mitigate
their respective drawbacks.
相似文献
Agnieszka SosinskaEmail: |
10.
We find no evidence of accrual mispricing for firms that disclose accrual information at earnings announcements. For these
firms, the market differentiates the discretionary from the nondiscretionary components of the earnings surprise. In contrast,
the market fails to distinguish between the discretionary and the nondiscretionary components of the earnings surprise for
firms that do not disclose accrual information at earnings announcements. These firms experience some stock price correction
around the filing date. However, the correction is only partial, resulting in a post-filing drift.
相似文献
Henock LouisEmail: |
11.
We advance the real-option-based empirical analysis of commercial real estate investment in three respects. First, we test
several real option implications for real estate construction that have not been examined in the commercial real estate investment
literature. In particular and in line with the predictions of real option models, we show that the effects of real interest
rate and the expected demand growth on hurdle rent become more negative when the market volatility is greater. Second, we
use a cointegrating vector of office employment and office stock to provide a better control of the demand for new construction
than traditional indicators based on real estate prices and vacancy rates. Third, whereas the existing studies focus on the
U.S. commercial real estate markets, we study two major office markets in Asia, namely Singapore and Hong Kong. We rely on
the local stock market in the two city states to derive forward-looking measures of office demand growth expectations.
相似文献
Maarten Jennen (Corresponding author)Email: |
12.
The Greenspan years: an analysis of the magnitude and speed of the equity market response to FOMC announcements 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Allan A. Zebedee Eric Bentzen Peter R. Hansen Asger Lunde 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2008,22(1):3-20
We examine the impact of monetary policy on the S&P 500 using intraday data. The analysis shows an economically and statistically
significant relationship between S&P 500 intraday returns and changes in the Fed funds target rate. The significance and magnitude
of the response is dependent on whether the change was expected or unexpected. An expected change in the Fed funds target
rate has no impact on prices in the broad equity market; however, an unexpected change of 25 basis points in the Fed funds
target rate results in an approximate 48 basis points decline in the broad equity market’s return. The speed of these market
reactions is rapid with the equity market reaching a new equilibrium within 15 minutes.
相似文献
Allan A. ZebedeeEmail: |
13.
Is the January effect still alive in the futures markets? 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
The January effect concerns the fact that small capitalization stocks have historically outperformed large capitalized stocks
in January. We analyze evidence as to whether this anomaly can be exploited in the futures markets as a speculative investment
or to add risk-adjusted value to portfolio performance. We find that the January effect is still alive in the futures markets
on the Value Line minus S&P 500 spread trade, but that the marginal liquidity of the Value Line stock index futures contract
has made it very risky to exploit the effect. Historically from 1982/3 to 2004/5, the trade has been profitable. This anomaly
was also exploitable through a Russell 2000 minus S&P 500 spread trade from 1993/4 to 2004/5.
相似文献
William T. ZiembaEmail: |
14.
This paper examines whether the mispricing of accruals documented in equity markets extends to bond markets. The paper finds
that corporate bonds of firms with high operating accruals underperform corporate bonds of firms with low operating accruals.
In the first year after portfolio formation, the underperformance is 115 basis points using an accrual measure that includes
capital investments and 93 basis points using an accrual measure that is based only on working capital investments. The Sharpe
ratios of the zero-investment bond accrual portfolios are comparable to those of the corresponding zero-investment stock accrual
portfolios. The results are also robust to risk adjustments based on both a factor model consisting of the Fama and French
(J. Financial Econ 33 (1993) 3) stock and bond market factors and a characteristics model based on bond ratings and duration. Cross-sectional Fama–MacBeth
regressions that use individual bond data and control for stock and bond issuances in addition to ratings and duration also
confirm the time-series portfolio findings. Overall, our results reveal an accrual anomaly among bonds similar to that observed
among stocks.
相似文献
Bhaskaran SwaminathanEmail: |
15.
David Abad Sonia Sanabria José Yagüe 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2009,32(3):287-308
Using Spanish data, this paper examines, for the first time, the differences in the intraday response of an order-driven market
to earnings announcements made during trading and non-trading hours. We show that the speed of reaction depends on timing
of the announcement: for overnight (daytime) announcements, the improvement in liquidity is (not) immediate. This finding
could explain why Spanish firms prefer to release the bad (good) earnings announcement in trading (non-trading) hours. This
strategic timing differs from the traditional disclosure policy in American markets, suggesting that different microstructures
may react differently to news releases and, consequently, drive the strategic timing of corporate disclosures.
相似文献
José Yagüe (Corresponding author)Email: |
16.
Over the latest 20 years, the average credit rating of U.S. corporations has trended down. Blume et al. (1998, Journal of Finance, 53, 1389–1413.) attribute this trend to a tightening of credit standards by agencies. We reexamine the observed decreases in
credit ratings in several ways. First, we show that this downward trend does not apply to speculative-grade issuers. Second,
our analysis of investment-grade issuers suggests that the apparent tightening of standards can be attributed primarily to
changes in accounting quality over time. After incorporating changing accounting quality, we find no evidence that rating
agencies have tightened their credit standards.
相似文献
Charles ShiEmail: |
17.
Brent W. Ambrose Yildiray Yildirim 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(3):281-298
Previous research either assumes default free leases or leases subject to default risk using a structural approach. However,
structural credit risk models suffer from a common criticism that the firm’s asset value process is unobservable. We develop
a reduced form credit risk model for leases that avoids making assumptions regarding unobservable asset valuation processes.
Furthermore, we assume a correlated market and credit risk that provides us with a simple analytic formula for valuing defaultable
lease contracts. Numerical analysis reveals that tenant credit risk can have a substantial impact on the term structure of
leases. Finally, we use the model to demonstrate the implied lease term structure for a set of retail and financial firms
in the Fall of 2000.
相似文献
Yildiray YildirimEmail: |
18.
We examine the motives for takeovers in New Zealand surrounding the 1987 stock market crash and compare with the US findings
of Gondhalekar and Bhagwat (2003). There are a number of structural differences between the New Zealand and US markets that could impact on merger motives.
Compared with the US, New Zealand is a small capital market; with weak takeover regulation and a prolonged aftermath of the
1987 stock market crash. Consistent with US research, we find evidence of synergy and hubris motivations in New Zealand takeovers
although we find the synergy motivation is stronger. Contrary to expectations we find no evidence of agency motivated takeovers.
相似文献
Hamish D. AndersonEmail: |
19.
Louis T. W. Cheng Hung-Gay Fung Tak Yan Leung 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2007,28(1):23-54
The literature has suggested that earnings and earnings forecasts provide stronger signals than dividends about future performance
of a firm. We test the information effects of simultaneous announcement of earnings and dividends in the Hong Kong market,
distinguished by three interesting features (concentrated family-shareholdings, low corporate transparency, and no tax on
dividends). Our results show significant share price reactions to unexpected earnings and dividend changes, but dividends
appear to play a dominant role over earnings in pricing, a result contrary to findings in the literature. The signaling hypothesis
works primarily for firms with earning increases, while the maturity hypothesis works mainly for firms with earnings declines.
相似文献
Tak Yan LeungEmail: |
20.
Héléna Beltran-Lopez Pierre Giot Joachim Grammig 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2009,23(3):209-242
This paper uses data from one of the most important European stock markets and shows that, in line with predictions from theoretical
market microstructure, a small number of latent factors captures most of the variation in stock specific order books. We show
that these order book commonalities are much stronger than liquidity commonality across stocks. The result that bid and ask
side as well as the visible and hidden parts of the order book exhibit quite specific dynamics is interpreted as evidence
that open order book markets attract a heterogeneous trader population in terms of asset valuations and impatience. Quantifying
the informational content of the extracted factors with respect to the evolution of the asset price, we find that the factor
information shares are highest (about 10%) for less frequently traded stocks. We also show that the informational content
of hidden orders is limited.
相似文献
Joachim GrammigEmail: |