More is More: Some Economics of Distinctively-Named White Kids

Using data covering every child born in California from 1961 to 2000, Fryer and Levitt (2004) find that in the 1960s, the differences in name choices by blacks and whites were relatively small, but that a profound shift began among blacks in the mid-1970s toward more distinctively black names, especially among blacks in racially isolated neighborhoods. As an extension of Fryer and Levitt (2004), this study uses data on the names of about 1,300 white children born over the four-year period from 1997 to 2000 and living in a segment of a Metropolitan Statistical Area in the Deep South, and finds that use of combination first names—largely based on combinations of single names included among the names of high-end white children from Fryer and Levitt (2004) and Levitt and Dubner (2005)—is significantly more prevalent among high-end white children than it is among low-end white children. Unlike the data described in Fryer and Levitt (2004), which support an Identity Model wherein distinctively black names result from the Black Power movement that encouraged blacks to “accentuate and affirm black culture and fight the claims of black inferiority,” the present study suggests that high-end parents may use the combination first name convention to increase the likelihood of the child’s future success in various partnership markets, such as dating, marriage and business-partnership markets.     

Productivity-Wage Gaps Among Age Groups: Does the ICT Environment Matter?

This paper disentangles the age-productivity-wage nexus by estimating productivity and wage equations with longitudinal employer-employee panel data for Belgium. Results indicate that workers above 49 years are significantly less productive than their younger colleagues. Moreover, while relative productivities across age groups are not found to differ significantly between ICT and non ICT firms, the upward sloping age-wage profile appears to be somewhat steeper in ICT firms. Yet, whatever the ICT environment, findings show that young workers are paid below and older workers above their marginal productivity. This pattern is in line with the deferred payment model developed by Lazear (J Polit Econ 87:1261–1284, 1979).     

Pricing contingent convertibles with idiosyncratic risk

We consider capital structure including equity, straight bonds (SBs), and contingent convertibles (CoCos) for nonfinancial firms. We price equity and CoCos by a utility-based method. We show that benefits from issuing CoCos increase dramatically with idiosyncratic risk and risk aversion. The firm value is concave in CoCos' conversion ratio and the optimal conversion ratio increases with risk aversion and idiosyncratic risk. If risk aversion is sufficiently high, shareholders' risk-shifting incentives disappear, and the firm issues less CoCos and equity and more SBs as idiosyncratic risk rises. The higher the idiosyncratic risk or risk aversion, the higher the leverage.     

Can Employee Stock Options Contribute to Less Risk-Taking?

The executive compensation literature presumes that shareholders offer risk-averse managers stock options to entice them to take on more risk, resulting in riskier investment decisions and thus a greater return on investment. However, recent empirical work challenges this assumption, and theoretical research even argues that high levels of option-based compensation for generally under-diversified managers may actually lead to greater risk aversion. We evaluate the incentive structure of employee stock options by examining the level of R&D investment and the return on that investment conditional on the portfolio “vega,” which captures the sensitivity of option value to stock price volatility. Our results suggest that both investment in R&D and the return on R&D, as measured by future earnings and patent awards, varies concavely with vega. That is, low to moderate levels of vega correspond to increasing investment in and returns on R&D, consistent with vega inducing more profitable investments, but marginal returns decline as vega increases. Collectively, these results, bolstered by several supplemental analyses, suggest that this surprising relation between vega and risky investment is driven by greater risk aversion at higher levels of vega. Overall, our results imply that employee stock options may not always align the incentives of managers and shareholders.     

An Analysis of the Determinants of Tipping Behavior: A Laboratory Experiment and Evidence from Restaurant Tipping

This paper explores several determinants of tipping behavior. First, I consider two social norms explanations—reciprocity and letdown (guilt) aversion—of why consumers tip in restaurants. Second, I examine three aspects of the tipping situation that influence how much consumers tip in restaurants: table size, sex, and method of bill payment. I address these issues using two data sources: a field survey and laboratory experiments. Customers were surveyed individually as they left a set of restaurants in Richmond, Virginia. The laboratory experiments vary service quality, table size, and information about others' tips in a controlled setting. Results from both data sets show support for reciprocity and letdown aversion, and that tip size decreases with table size. Sex differences, which exist only in the experimental data, show that men tip more than women. Finally, the size of the tip does not depend on the method of bill payment.     

Episodic Nonlinearity in Leading Global Currencies

We perform non-linearity tests using daily data for leading currencies that include the Australian dollar, British pound, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Mexican peso, and the Swiss franc to resolve the issue of whether these currencies are driven by fundamentals or exogenous shocks to the global economy. In particular, we use a new method of testing for linear and nonlinear lead/lag relationships between time series, introduced by Brooks and Hinich (J Empir Finance 20:385–404, 1999), based on the concepts of cross-correlation and cross-bicorrelation. Our evidence points to a relatively rare episodic nonlinearity within and across foreign exchange rates. We also test the validity of specifying ARCH-type error structures for foreign exchange rates. In doing so, we estimate Bollerslev’s (J Econom 31:307–327, 1986) generalized ARCH (GARCH) model and Nelson’s (1988) exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, using a variety of error densities [including the normal, the Student-t distribution, and the Generalized Error Distribution (GED)] and a comprehensive set of diagnostic checks. We apply the Brooks and Hinich (1999) nonlinearity test to the standardized residuals of the optimal GARCH/EGARCH model for each exchange rate series and show that the nonlinearity in the exchange rates is not due to ARCH-type effects. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the recent voluminous literature which attempts to model financial asset returns using this family of models.     

Experiments on risk attitude: The case of Chinese students

This paper examines Chinese students' risk attitudes using selling and buying experiments with lotteries. We found that subjects were more risk averse during the buying experiment than during the selling experiment, suggesting an endowment effect. In the selling experiment, subjects were risk loving when there was a low win probability and risk averse with a high win probability, whereas they were risk averse in the buying experiment. Using the prize money won during the experiment as a measure of wealth, we found decreasing absolute risk aversion. Subjects' risk attitudes as revealed in the experiments explain their risky asset holding behavior.     

Fundamental Analysis: Combining the Search for Quality with the Search for Value

Using cross‐sectional forecasts, we combine fundamental analysis strategies based on quality, such as the FSCORE from Piotroski (2000) and the GSCORE from Mohanram (2005), with strategies based on value, such as the V/P ratio from Frankel and Lee (1998) and the PEG ratio. While all four strategies generate significant hedge returns, combining quality‐driven and value‐driven approaches substantially improves the efficacy of fundamental analysis. Our parsimonious two‐dimensional approach can be applied to a wide cross section of stocks and outperforms common practitioner approaches that require a lengthy time series of data. The improvements in hedge returns hold for a variety of partitions and are robust to controls for risk factors and other determinants of stock returns. While the efficacy of fundamental analysis has declined in recent years, this can partially be attributed to investors arbitraging away excess returns by investing in fundamental strategies.     

Is Violation of the Random Walk Assumption an Exception or a Rule in Capital Markets?

Both the efficient market hypothesis and modern portfolio theory rest on the assumptions of the Gaussian probability distribution and independence of consecutive returns. This paper provides a brief excursion into the history of capital market research. A measure of long-range dependence (Hurst exponent) was applied to daily returns of selected stock indices and individual firms. The Hurst exponent was estimated using rescaled range analysis. The estimates are based on an unusually large sample of empirical-time series from capital markets. This method distinguishes whether the data-generating process follows random walk or exhibits antipersistent or persistent behavior. Both the efficient market hypothesis and modern portfolio theory assume that the data-generating process has no memory, i.e. follows Brownian motion. The random walk process is characterized by a Hurst exponent value of 0.5. Values greater than 0.5 and less than 1 indicate a persistence of local trends. Values between 0 and 0.5 indicate a process that reverts to the mean more often than a random process (mean-reverting process). The results indicated that the series of daily returns exhibit predominantly persistent or antipersistent behavior. Therefore, Brownian motion cannot be perceived as the norm for describing stock market behavior. These findings challenge the assumption of a random walk in stock prices, valuation models and assessment of risk.

     

Terrorists’ Equilibrium Choices When No Attack Method is Riskless

This paper builds on Phillips (Defence and Peace Economics, 16(6), 403–414, 2009) and enhances the NM expected utility analysis of terroristic behaviour by drawing on the fact that expected utility maximising behaviour in a setting where a terroristic group makes optimal decisions from a choice set containing combinations of attack methods can be analysed in terms of two moments (mean and variance) of the random payoffs associated with each attack method combination. This paper presents an equilibrium relationship between the expected payoffs of attack method combinations and the risk associated with those payoffs. This is an equilibrium model of choice under uncertainty when the behaviour of interest is the selection by a terroristic group of an optimal decision from a choice set containing attack method combinations.     

开放式基金风险分析与评价模型构建

运用马克维茨评估σ指数法和β指数法对四只开放式基金的风险进行实证分析,提出基于单侧负收益率相对偏差比指标的基金风险评价模型。该模型侧重于资本市场趋势向下,对基金的亏损风险进行量化分析,使基金风险的评价反映投资者对于亏损更加敏感的心理。此外,对这四只基金的晨星评价结果、σ指数法、β指数法和基于单侧负收益率相对偏差比指标的基金风险评价模型计算结果进行对比。对比结果表明,本文新构建的方法在市场趋势下跌时具有更好的区分度。     

Are You Risk Averse over Other People's Money?

Decisions with uncertain outcomes are often made by one party in settings where another party bears the consequences. Whenever an individual is delegated to make decisions that affect others, such as in the typical corporate structure, does the individual make decisions that reflect the risk preferences of the party bearing the consequences? We examine this question in two simple settings, lottery choices and sealed‐bid auctions, using controlled laboratory experiments. We find that when an individual makes a decision for an anonymous stranger, there is a tendency to exhibit less risk aversion. This reduction in risk aversion is relative to his or her own preferences, and it is also relative to his or her belief about the preferences of others. This result has significant implications for the design of contracts between principals and agents.     

IMPLEMENTING A ROBUST RISK MODEL FOR SOUTH AFRICAN EQUITY MARKETS: A PEAK‐OVER‐THRESHOLD APPROACH

This paper implements a market risk model for the South African equity market using daily returns of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index. Firstly, we separate positive returns from negative returns and model them using the peak‐over‐threshold (POT) method in order to compute the downside as well as upside risk measures separately. We thereafter compute the value‐at‐risk (VAR) and the expected shortfall (ES) estimates corresponding to upside and downside risks. We bootstrap these risk measures and compute their standard errors and confidence intervals (CIs) to see whether they fall inside these CIs. Secondly, we compute out‐sample forecasts of VAR estimates using the POT method and the generalised autogressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. Three backtesting methodologies are employed: the unconditional and conditional coverage tests and the counting of number of exceptions according to Basel II green zone. We find that all our VAR and ES estimates are well inside their CIs and that at lower quantiles, parametric ES estimates are equal to POT‐ES estimates, although the difference between the two is more pronounced at higher quantiles (99% or higher). Furthermore, our market risk model falls into the Basel II green zone, as it produces fewer exceptions in out‐sample space.     

The Conservatism Principle and the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings: An Event‐Based Approach*

We test the asymmetric timeliness hypothesis by using information in extreme events as a measure of good/bad news. Our focus on extreme events is motivated by two arguments. First, the accounting concept of materiality in conjunction with litigation risk influences managers and auditors to make more conservative choices with respect to material events. Second, focusing on extreme shocks minimizes the probability that accounting slack may obscure the effect of asymmetric timeliness (Beaver and Ryan 2005). We identify individual events using short‐window extreme returns, since long‐window returns would aggregate the effect of multiple events and thus limit our ability to detect the asymmetry. Taken together, these features of our research design provide a more powerful test of asymmetric timeliness. Consistent with prior studies, we document that the correlation between bad news and concurrent earnings is significantly higher than that between good news and concurrent earnings. Our analysis of extreme events also enables us to document higher correlation of good news with earnings two or more quarters ahead. This is in contrast to prior studies that were unable to document asymmetry in the relation between returns and subsequent earnings in the opposite direction to that between returns and concurrent earnings. Our paper contributes to the growing literature on conservatism by modifying the Basu methodology to enhance the power of the test of asymmetric timeliness.     

Managerial control inside the firm

This paper proposes an implicit control mechanism of managers inside the firm. We argue that the need to motivate workers may make it beneficial for a self-interested, short-sighted manager to pursue the long-term viability of a firm. When the firm is in a stable environment, this implicit control mechanism may not contradict shareholder value maximization. However, when the firm needs restructuring, this mechanism diminishes firm value. We discuss when external governance is desirable, and when it is not. Our model also offers economic explanations for some related issues in managerial behavior, such as restructuring aversion, survival motive, and excessive risk aversion. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (3) (2007) 324–335.     

Systemically important banks: an analysis for the European banking system

In this paper we perform an empirical analysis to identify systemically important banks by a few individual bank characteristics that are easy to observe in practice. This analysis builds on a new method to construct measures of systemic relevance of individual institutions that are consistent with a risk analysis at the level of the banking system, taking correlations in bank asset returns into account. We derive asset return correlations for a sample of European publicly traded banks from market data and construct two risk measures: incremental value at risk and conditional expected shortfall. Incremental value at risk quantifies the individual contributions of banks to the system’s Value-at-Risk. Conditional expected shortfall measures the increase in the expected system wide deposit insurance liability that would follow from the default of an institution. The analysis of hypothetical defaults of institutions is performed consistently with the observed distribution of asset returns by using the conditional distribution. Both measures are then analyzed in a panel regression where individual characteristics are used to explain incremental value at risk and conditional expected shortfall.     

EXTREME VALUE AT RISK: A SCENARIO FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

This paper uses the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution to model the extreme losses that are likely to occur during market crashes, in the case of an investor who has long positions in stocks and currencies. The null hypothesis – which tests for normality of asset returns – is rejected due to asymmetry of these returns. We assume that the asymmetric behaviour and volatility of the returns are captured by the shape and scale parameters, respectively, of a GEV distribution. The data set includes stock indices for the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and South Africa, and the South African rand exchange rates against the US dollar observed from 3 January 2005 to 30 December 2009. In addition, we divide this sample period into two periods: the pre‐crisis period, from 3 January 2005 to 31 December 2007 and the crisis period, from 1 January 2008 to 30 December 2009. We compared the estimates of value at risk (VaR) using an extreme value theory (EVT) model, with the estimates derived from the traditional variance–covariance method and found that during the crisis the 99% extreme VaR estimates are more reliable as they lie within the Basel II green zone. These results suggest that, at higher quintiles, the VaR estimates based on EVT are reliable and more accurate than estimates from the traditional method.     

Optimal portfolio choice when utility depends on health

This paper examines optimal portfolio choice when health can change the shape of the utility function. If adverse health shocks threaten to increase the marginal utility of consumption, that is, if they are Edgeworth–Pareto substitutes, risky health prompts individuals to lower their risky portfolio shares. Health naturally becomes more uncertain with age, so this theory might help to explain why aging investors gradually decrease their risk exposure even when asset returns display no mean reversion and relative risk aversion is constant.     

当前我国艺术品投资风险规避分析

本文结合当前我国艺术品投资现状及基本情况,从规范投资市场、培养超前的意识、学习积累专业知识及选择购买渠道等方面进行分析,提出艺术品投资风险规避及基本措施的几点建议。     

The Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing: Can Inflation Differentials and Trading Costs Help Explain the Puzzle?

The bulk of evidence on the lack of international risk sharing is based on regressions of idiosyncratic consumption growth on idiosyncratic output growth. This paper argues that the results from such regressions obtained from international data are, however, not directly comparable to those based on regional data: the standard practice of running such regressions on international data fails to account for persistent international differentials in consumer prices, whereas—implicitly—most of the literature based on regional data has accounted for these differences. When risk sharing regressions are set up in conceptually the same way in international and regional data sets, the estimated coefficients are also very similar. To explore this result further, we adapt the variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (Q J Econ 111:1081–1110, 1996) to allow for deviations from purchasing power parity across countries. While quantity (income and credit) flows are the dominant channel of risk sharing among regions, relative consumption and output price (internal terms of trade) fluctuations account for the bulk of the deviation from the complete markets outcome in international data. To the extent that persistent differences in consumer prices are an indication of goods market segmentation, our findings provide empirical evidence for the proposition by Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, 2000) that segmented international goods markets rather than asset market incompleteness may account for the (apparent) lack of risk sharing between countries.