Accuracy of Risk Aversion Approximations

This paper investigates the accuracy of a widely used approximation for empirically estimating the coefficients of absolute and relative risk aversion. The size and sign of the approximation errors depend upon the magnitude of the risk, the extent of the skewness in the probability distribution governing risky outcomes, and the concavity of the underlying utility function, as well as the interactions among these factors.     

投资者风险规避度与量化宽松的中长期利率效应

为什么日美两国量化宽松对于各自中长期利率的影响效果呈现显著差异?文章基于preferred-habitat theory(偏好习惯理论)探讨了一个长期被忽略的影响因素——投资者风险规避度。根据偏好习惯理论,文章认为减少长期债券的供给的确能够降低中长期利率(文章称之为供给效应),但供给效应的大小取决于投资者风险规避度。文章运用两种方法计算比较了日美两国投资者风险规避度,结果发现各自量化宽松期间日本投资者的风险规避度远小于美国投资者。进一步地,文章的实证检验证实,量化宽松的供给效应存在于不同国家,且与投资者风险规避度确实存在一定程度的正相关关系,从而证明了偏好习惯理论。更为重要的是文章发现美国量化宽松的供给效应显著高于日本,这说明投资者风险规避情绪确实是造成两国量化宽松的中长期利率效应差异的关键因素。     

地方政府融资平台的来龙去脉与风险规避

分税制改革后,"财权上移,事权下移",造成地方政府财权与事权不匹配。2008年金融危机爆发后,地方政府融资平台为解决刺激经济所需的财政支出资金缺口起到了关键性的作用,但同时也不可避免地出现了地方政府融资平台数量与负债规模的爆发式增长的局面。应从地方政府与银行系统两方面入手,规范融资平台运作的各个环节,从融资平台的融资规模、资金流向、还款备付等方面规范与管理融资平台的运作。     

Optimal Stabilization Policy Under Governmental Risk Aversion

Governmental stabilization policies take account of the underlying risk aversion of its voters. A utility function for the government is defined, one which includes variances of national income changes with respect to its policy instruments—here the budget variable, the bond rate of interest, and the currency-exchange rate. The consequence of this for the optimal set of policies is a target level of national income less than what a risk-neutral government aims at. This applies to an open economy when this is a key-currency country, as it need attend to balance-of-payments effects only insofar as they affect national income. The non-key-currency country, by contrast, must take account directly of balance-of-payments effects and their variance, so it reaches a lower level of utility than the key-currency country.     

Executive Gender Pay Gaps: The Roles of Female Risk Aversion and Board Representation

Using a large sample of executives in S&P 1500 firms over 1996–2010, we document significant salary and total compensation gaps between female and male executives and explore two possible explanations for the gaps. We find support for greater female risk aversion as one contributing factor. Female executives hold significantly lower equity incentives and demand larger salary premiums for bearing a given level of compensation risk. These results suggest that females’ risk aversion contributes to the observed lower pay levels through its effect on ex ante compensation structures. We also find evidence that the lack of gender diversity on corporate boards affects the size of the gaps. In firms with a higher proportion of female directors on the board, the gaps in salary and total pay levels are lower. Together, these findings suggest that female higher risk aversion may act as a barrier to full pay convergence, despite the mitigating effect from greater gender diversity on the board.     

试析企业人力资源管理外包的动因及风险防范

人力资源管理外包（HRMO）作为一种新兴的管理模式,日益成为企业增强核心竞争力的重要手段。但目前我国外包市场尚不成熟,人力资源管理外包在显示其优越性的同时,也给企业增加了诸多风险。加强政府的引导及配套政策制定,选择适宜的外包服务机构以及建立风险预警管理体系,可使企业尽可能地规避这些风险。     

Risk Aversion and Wages: Evidence from the Baseball Labor Market

We develop a bargaining model to assess how workers and employers might allocate wages inter-temporally in order to cope with risk. We then apply this model to 106 long-term contracts for major league baseball players’ services. Most of these agreements not only smooth employee compensation over time but suggest greater relative risk aversion for teams than players. Compared to the wages they might pay to retain these players on a succession of one-year contracts, teams often pay a premium on longer-term agreements to protect against market volatility and potential inability to replace a key player on the open market.     

风险厌恶、跨期替代与股权溢价之谜

股权溢价之谜在国内外是一种普遍存在的现象。本文使用了2SLS方法对我国投资者的跨期替代弹性进行了估计,发现消费的跨期替代弹性很低。即使对投资者效用函数进行修改,Epstein-Zin-Weil效用也不能很好地解释中国股市股权溢价之谜。     

跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响--基于风险累积效应和风险传染效应的视角

从风险累积效应和风险传染效应两个视角揭示跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响机理,并基于2000年第一季度至2020年第四季度时间序列数据进行经验检验,结果表明:跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著增加了银行风险,且三者对银行风险的影响均存在显著的风险累积效应;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均通过影响金融机构人民币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构外币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构本外币各项贷款余额同比增速以及境内住户中长期消费贷款同比增速等信贷渠道显著提高银行风险承担水平,实现银行风险累积,从而增加银行风险;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著提高了股票价格、房地产价格和实际汇率的波动水平,且跨境资本流动通过股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场将波动水平传染至银行系统,增加了银行风险,股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场更是强化了这种传染效应。     

低碳规则对我国国际收支的潜在影响

我国以低端产品进入国际市场的外汇创收模式以及FDI对加工贸易的青睐,造就了国际收支顺差形成中的高碳经济因素。碳关税的全面实施会通过进出口渠道和长期资本流入渠道影响我国的国际收支。为了避免碳关税对出口和FDI的过度冲击,我国政府应大力推动贸易部门生产方式的绿色化转型;同时应实现碳关税向国内碳税的转变,并通过免费配额、出口补贴等政策措施,降低碳税对我国出口竞争力的影响。     

大额支付系统运行中的潜在风险及防范对策

2005年5月大额支付系统在齐齐哈尔辖区成功上线运行.新系统的上线提供了快速、高效、安全的资金汇划和清算渠道,促进了网上银行、电子商务发展.但新系统的运行也带来了会计制度、会计核算、系统运行和会计监督风险.为防范和控制新系统的风险应健全运行管理制度,明确各职能部门岗位职责;完善系统,消除由于系统缺陷可能引发的系统风险：积极探索科学、合理、严密的事后监督办法.     

跨越薪酬管理的陷阱

人力资源的开发和管理,在现代企业管理的背景下,越发显得重要和突出。薪酬管理作为人力资源系统中的关键环节,往往被人为的忽略,或者由于操作者的不够专业,致使薪酬系统零散而杂乱,导致薪酬本身强大的凋节功能无法有效发挥其应有的激励作用,甚至将正常的管理导入混乱的泥沼之中。     

The Economics of Health System Payment

Summary Health care takes up 10 to 15 percent of GDP in most countries. In this lecture, I consider the efficiency of the medical system, focusing on the potential for payment reform to increase efficiency. Traditionally, medical care reimbursement has been based on the quantity and intensity of the services provided. While this system encouraged valuable innovation, it failed when high quality is not achieved by increased quantity. In theory, a more efficient system could be achieved by paying for medical care on the basis of quality of care provided, not just quantity. I discuss the design of such a payment system and review the literature on how pay-for-performance systems have worked in practice. Cautious optimism about the potential for efficiency gains from payment reform is warranted. This essay was presented as the 19th Tinbergen Lecture on October 21, 2005, in Amsterdam. I am grateful to session participants for comments.     

基于后悔厌恶心理因素的投资者行为分析

基于后悔厌恶的心理因素,投资者会表现出持亏卖盈的行为偏好。本文利用中国个体投资者交易账户的交易数据对中国股票市场个体投资者“处置效应”进行了实证分析,并考察了中国股票市场是否存在“十二月效应”对“处置效应”的影响。本文研究表明,中国个体投资者存在显著的“处置效应”,并在十二月份存在“反处置效应”现象。     

危险废物风险评价的一般程序及方法分析

危险废物是指列入国家危险废物名录或者根据国家规定的危险废物鉴别标准和鉴别方法认定的具有危险特性的废物。危险废物是当今世界各国环境保护的重点和难点问题,要控制和管理好危险废物,必须对危险废物进行合理有效的风险评价。对危险废物风险评价的一般程序、评价指标体系及评价方法等内容进行了探讨和分析。最后提出了通过建立和完善风险评价法规,从而实现对危险废物的有效管理的建议。     

基于风险收益关系和风险倾向的战略风险行为研究

战略风险中的行为因素对企业竞争优势和整体绩效具有显著影响,其核心问题是风险收益的对称性以及风险倾向与组织绩效的关系。文章从Bowman的风险收益悖论、风险承担态度和战略参考点的视角对战略风险行为进行了系统考察,结合战略风险行为的SCP分析范式,探讨了组织风险倾向和竞争优势的关系,分析了不同风险态度下的组织业绩表现。     

电子支付监管问题研究

本文分析了国内外电子支付及相关的法律与监管情况,发现电子支付存在法律空白和监管空白。分析了电子支付存在的风险,尤其是第三方电子支付的风险。在此基础上借鉴国内外的经验,提出了电子支付监管的政策与措施。