Managing Future Oil Revenues in Ghana: An Assessment of Alternative Allocation Options*

Abstract: Contemporary policy debates on the macroeconomics of resource booms often concentrate on the short‐run Dutch disease effects of public expenditure, ignoring the possible long‐term effects of alternative revenue‐allocation options and the supply‐side impact of royalty‐financed public investments. In a simple model applied here, the government decides the level and timing of resource‐rent spending. This model also considers productivity spillovers over time, which may exhibit a sector bias toward domestic production or exports. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model is used to simulate the effect of temporary oil revenue inflows to Ghana. The simulations show that beyond the short‐run Dutch disease effects, the relationship between windfall profits, growth, and households’ welfare is less straightforward than what the simple model of the ‘resource curse’ suggests. The DCGE model results suggest that designing a rule that allocates oil revenues to both productivity‐enhancing investments and an oil fund is crucial to achieving shared growth and macroeconomic stability.     

Dutch disease revisited. Oil discoveries and movements of the real exchange rate when manufacturing is resource-intensive

We study how natural resource booms affect the real exchange rate in a situation where there are input–output linkages between the manufacturing sector and the natural resource sector. An increase in revenues from natural resources could de-industrialize an economy by raising the real exchange rate, rendering the manufacturing sector less competitive. This tendency towards de-industrialization has been called “Dutch disease”. We build a theoretical model showing that a country experiencing discoveries of natural resources, such as oil, is not necessarily bound to experience the Dutch disease. The appreciation of the real exchange rate can be escaped if patterns of specialization shift towards the manufacturing industries that use oil more intensively. In the second part of the paper, we test the model and find support for the claim that Dutch disease effect associated with discoveries of natural resources (namely oil) are dampened in countries that specialize in resource-intensive manufacturing industries.     

Technological catch-up or resource rents?

This paper studies contribution of capital deepening, technological progress and efficiency improvement to economic growth while focusing on cross-country data, and thus finds itself at the crossroads of growth and development accounting. We take a production frontier approach to growth accounting and choose DEA as the frontier estimation method. To explore the effects that windfall gains from natural resource use have on growth, output data are corrected for pure natural resource rents—part of GDP figures not earned by either labor or capital. Taking into account countries’ natural resources, we find that in the two decades from 1970 to 1990 the average contribution of technological catch-up to per worker output growth was, if anything, negative on the worldwide scale and this trend continued till the mid 1990ies. Analysis of efficiency estimates also shows a possible change over the period of 1970–1990 in the effect of natural resources on country’s performance     

我国农业资本形成分析

经济发展史表明，各国尤其是发展中国家的经济增长是与其资本形成是紧密相连的。按照主流经济学的观点，推动经济增长的因素有四个：人力资源、自然资源、资本和技术。资本是稀缺程度最高的资源，对于中国这样的农业大国来说，资本形成显得更为重要。     

Sustainability with endogenous discounting

We construct a dynamic competitive model with a stock of human‐made capital and several stocks of natural resources and ask under what conditions consumption will be constant if infinitesimal households with heterogeneous preferences and endowments discount their utility at an endogenous rate that depends on some macroeconomic variables. We show that for consumption to be constant, this function must be the marginal product of capital function. We demonstrate that Hartwick's rule holds in a modified form that takes account of natural growth of resource stocks.     

Oil windfalls in a small parliamentary democracy: Their impact on Trinidad and Tobago

As did other oil exporters, Trinidad and Tobago reaped large windfall gains after 1973. The diversion of oil income to subsidies and increased consumption was heavily influenced by the distinctive political economy, and has resulted in substantial weakening of the non-oil traded sectors (the “Dutch Disease”), despite concern to use oil revenues to strengthen them and a cautious spending policy. Attempts to diversify through gas-based industrialization are not likely to replace shrinking oil income.     

十月革命前俄国金融业中的犹太人

金融业在国民经济中占有重要地位。19世纪60年代亚历山大二世改革后，俄国的经济迅猛发展，走上了工业化发展的道路。国民经济的蓬勃发展需要稳定的资金来源和可靠的信贷支持，这为创建近代化的金融体系提供了良好的契机，犹太私人银行就是在这一时期大量建立并迅速发展起来的。     

The Role of Property Rights in the Relationship between Capital Flows and Economic Growth in SSA: Do Natural Resources Endowment and Country Income Level Matter?

This paper studies the role played by the quality of property rights in the linkages of international capital flows into sub‐Saharan African (SSA) economies. Using panel data of 36 SSA countries over the period 1996–2015 and the ARDL procedure with the Pooled Mean Group regression method appropriate for non‐stationary panel data estimation, we account for the joint effects of property rights quality and openness to foreign capital flows on economic growth. We uncover the existence of a property rights quality threshold beyond which property rights either amplifies the spillovers effects or attenuates the negative effect of capital flows on economic growth. For instance, it takes a level of property rights of at least 60 to have a positive long‐term impact of capital flows on economic growth in natural resource‐poor African countries. The quality of property rights matters more to obtain spillover effects of capital flows on growth in natural resource‐poor countries than in their peer natural resource‐rich countries. Finally, with regard to the countries' income levels, capital flows have significant long‐term spillovers effects on economic growth in advanced African economies than in their low‐income peers.     

关于科技进步促进银川市经济发展的思考

科技进步已成为推动银川市经济发展的主要动力,在银川市的经济发展中起着先导的作用.但与沿海地区比较,银川的科技作用还是很不够的,还存在着制约科技进步和发挥作用的因素.发展和繁荣银川市经济,需要加快实施科技进步的步伐,强化人力资源开发,建立创新体制和机制,调整产业结构、改造传统产业,增加科技资金投入、加大基础研究,加强与区外的交流与合作.     

我国农业经济发展水平及其影响因素实证研究

农业经济发展与农业生产自然制约条件、农业人力资本投入、农业生产资本投入、农业生产技术、农业经济的市场作用、农业生产条件制约因素等密切相关.本文选取反映农业经济增长的13个指标,对其1980-2012年的时间序列运用主成分回归分析与其误差修正模型,研究我国农业经济发展全要素生产率及影响我国农业长期经济发展与短期经济发展的因素.结果表明,影响我国农业长期与短期经济发展的主要因素按影响力大小依次为农业生产条件、市场作用、自然制约条件、农业生产资本、农业生产技术、人力资源.     

广义后发优势概念解析

文章参照“比较优势”概念从生产要素进行界定，对后发优势概念的界定从一国利用生产要素转化为产出的过程出发，将后发优势分为五种类型：自然资源型、资本型、劳动型、技术型以及制度型后发优势，从而将狭义的技术后发优势扩展为“广义后发优势”概念，并对其内涵进行了详细解析。     

不改善金融结构 中国经济将没有出路

中国经济结构严重失衡有着深刻的社会、文化和经济政治体制背景,原因之一是要素市场未能充分发挥其在资源配置中的基础性作用,只有深化改革,打破劳动力、土地、资本等要素市场长期存在的体制性障碍,才能显著提高资源配置的效率。金融服务业体系迫切需要健全和完善。直接金融具有推动产业结构调整升级的天然优势。推进资本市场的科学发展需要下苦工夫:要坚定不移地深化发行和退市制度改革,加快发展多层次、多产品的资本市场体系,狠抓上市公司治理结构完善,以更大决心和更细致的服务培育机构投资者,不断提高市场效率,坚决守住不发生区域性系统性风险的底线。     

Patterns of Trade and Growth across Cones

This paper examines the implications of the Heckscher-Ohlin (HO) Model for the patterns of production and trade that will emerge as a country grows. It focuses primarily on world equilibria that include two or more cones of diversification. Starting with the textbook model of two factors and two goods, growth paths for production and trade are derived in terms of a country's capital-labor ratio relative to that of the world. With additional goods and countries, multiple cones create a ladder of comparative advantage that a country will climb as it accumulates capital relative to the world. With additional factors as well, more complicated patterns can emerge. In a three-factor model based on Krueger (1977), a country with fixed land, growing labor, and faster growing capital can first work its way down the ladder of comparative advantage before climbing back up. Using a graphical representation due to Leamer (1987) of a more general three-factor model, cones of diversification with large numbers of goods take the form of polygons that a growing country may pass through, then cross between. In all cases, the lesson of the HO Model is that growth causes repeated and extreme changes in patterns of specialization and trade over time.     

社会资本与农村剩余劳动力转移问题分析

社会资本是一种与物质资本、人力资本相区别的存在于社会结构中的个人资源,它对个人的发展与进步具有重要的作用。随着农村整体社会资本的下降,我国的农村剩余劳动力转移难度加大。如何提升农村劳动力的社会资本,进而推进农村剩余劳动力转移,是关系我国农村经济发展一个重要问题。     

汇率、经济增长与流动性过剩——基于经济全球化的考察

改革开放以来我国经济社会发展发生了深刻变化。过去三十年世界经济格局也发生了深刻变化。经济全球化深化了世界各国的经济联系,也创造了一种不稳定的双赢模式。发展中国家和发达国家均在全球产业转移中获得了要素生产力递增的收益。要素生产率递增可能使采取固定汇率的货币经历从高估到低估的转变,全球产业转移支持了发展中国家广泛而持续地保持这一优势,并以经常性项目和资本项目间跨国补偿机制实现了全球经济不稳定的平衡,也创造了全球流动性过剩。     

资源中间品贸易下的经济增长与资源节约

本文在Solow模型框架下引入了资源中间品生产部门,在开放条件下分析了资源中间品贸易下贸易小国经济增长的基本路径,并考察了资源节约对资源中间品贸易和经济增长的影响。结果表明,资源中间品部门的资本存量和产量与资源中间品的国际价格呈正比,但与本国资本存量的总体规模无关。依据资源中间品的贸易模式,经济增长可以被划分为专业化分工、资源中间品出口和资源中间品进口三个阶段。通常经济增长会在第三阶段进入稳定状态,但当资源中间品国际价格足够低时,贸易小国可以突破资源禀赋存量的约束,实现可持续增长。资源节约可以提高可持续增长的资源中间品临界价格以及稳状资本存量,从而拓展经济增长空间。     

税费改革后农村所面临的问题和思考

目前我国风险投资业还很不完善 ,在风险资本规模、运作机制和退出机制等方面存在着许多缺陷。本文主要讨论我国风险投资在资本规模和资金来源结构两方面存在的问题 ,重点探讨如何进行制度创新 ,利用信托基金这种运作机制来吸引民间资本发展风险投资。     

资源禀赋、增长模式与可持续发展

在经济增长路径的选择过程中,如果无视中国的基本国情,片面强调快速发展大规模的资本、技术密集型产业,则:一方面,会加大自然资源和资本的供给缺口,使经济发展与生态环境的关系更加紧张;另一方面,会导致大量失业,影响社会稳定,从而损害可持续发展的社会基础。因此,我国的经济增长路径的选择与转变应立足于可持续发展的高度,确立合理的技术结构;同时加快制度创新步伐,为确立适合中国国情的经济增长路径的提供制度保证。     

Credit allocation and investment decisions: The case of the manufacturing sector in Korea

This study examines the effectiveness of selective credit controls in Korea. The methodology used takes into account both direct credit availability and counterbalancing interest rate changes. The paper concludes that selective credit controls did indeed facilitate, albeit slightly, the investment activity of small and medium-sized enterprises. Repercussions on working capital and inventories were found to be minor, and side effects on large enterprises insignificant. The paper does not make judgments regarding alternatives to the use of selective credit controls. For a country contemplating the introduction of selective credit controls, such an evaluation would have been important.     

Growth,resource extraction and production in a small open economy

Summary and Conclusions This paper analyzed the optimal growth of a resource exporting economy in the framework of a Ramsey-type model. Two versions of the same model are used. In the first version (where the aggregate production function uses the conventional inputs, namely labor and capital) it was shown that along the optimal paths the resource would be exhausted in finite time and that the economy approaches asymptotically the modified golden rule capital intensity, well known from one-sector growth theory. Subsequently the impact of the changes in resource prices on the rate of extraction are investigated by considering an exponentially rising price.In the second version of the model, the resource extracted is divided between domestic production (the aggregate output of the economy is produced by means of labor, capital and the resource input) and export. Under this assumption, it is demonstrated that when the relative price of the resource is constant and given exogenously, the opening of trade (i.e., resource exports) depends on the relative magnitudes of the marginal product of the resource and its price. Furthermore the paper showed that even if trade opens, resource extraction for export will come to an end in finite time. After the economy stops exporting the resource, its optimal growth will be determined simultaneously by the elasticity of substitution between capital and the resource input and the dynamic behavior of the marginal product of the resource input, as explained in detail by Dasgupta and Heal [1974]. Finally, when the resource price has an exponential trend, resource extraction will continue both for domestic production and export purposes.