我国金融业重组模式

从世界各国的实践来看,金融业重组就是由分业经营向混业经营发展.金融业混业经营主要有三种模式:一是以德国为代表的全能银行模式,即在银行内部设置业务部门,全面经营银行、证券、保险、信托等金融业务;二是银行母子公司模式,即商业银行对证券公司、保险公司和信托投资公司控股,直接以子公司的方式进行业务渗透和扩张;三是金融控股公司模式,即在相关的金融机构之上建立金融控股公司,通过对银行、证券、保险和信托子公司控股实现业务渗透,各子公司相对独立运作,但在诸如风险管理和投资决策等方面以控股公司为中心.从我国金融业发展的现状来看,我国目前仍不具备发展全能银行模式和银行母子公司模式这两种混业经营所需要的金融监管能力、完善的资本市场和市场经营主体.     

金融控股公司:我国金融业的发展模式

作为混业经营的一种有效模式，金融控股公司正受到越来越多国家的青睐，并成为发达国家金融业混业经营的主要模式，在我国也已经在一定范围内存在。与国际金融发展形势相适应，金融控股公司也将是我国金融业未来发展的理想组织模式，应加快规范和推动我国金融控股公司的发展。     

金融控股公司:一个有效的混业经营制度安排--美国的经验及我国的选择

混业经营已成为世界金融业不可阻挡的发展趋势，从长远来看，我国金融也必然走向混业。从美国金融控股公司的发展经验来看，金融控股公司是一种有效的混业经营安排，对我国金融业的改革和发展具有重要借鉴意义。     

金融业经营模式变迁与金融风险监管

金融自由化及全球化的发展趋势推动金融业由传统的分业经营向混业经营变迁,并由此改变金融业的运行方式与运行特征。本文分析混业经营方式对我国金融监管的挑战和风险,根据当前的国情论证金融业混业经营趋势下我国金融业经营模式的选择,并针对金融控股公司经营特征,提出完善我国金融监管体制的措施建议。     

浅议我国金融业混业经营的战略选择

近年来,混业经营的风起云涌冲击着我国传统上的金融业分业经营体系。本文认为：分业经营在我国当前具有继续存在的必要性,但是这不能改变混业经营是我国金融业长远发展的必然趋势．构建以商业银行为主导的金融控股公司是我国金融业混业经营的应然模式。     

国外金融控股公司的发展及启示

金融业由分业经营向混业经营发展是国际金融业的发展趋势,混业经营的金融控股公司已成为西方主要发达国家金融业的主要经营模式.本文重点简介美国、英国、日本三国金融控股公司发展情况,并根据国际经验对我国在WTO后过渡期发展金融控股公司的有关问题提出一些设想.     

我国金融混业与分业两难局势下的现实选择：金融控股公司

中国已经加入WTO，国内金融业将直接面对国外金融业的竞争。几乎是单一资本、单一业务范围的中国金融业，将如何应对这些以混业经营为背景、实力雄厚技术领先、管理科学、经验丰富的外来“金融航母”呢?混业经营是国际金融业发展的趋势，但在中国资本市场尚不成熟的情况下，混业经营是否现实?这正是目前在分业和混业问题上所争论的焦点。面对这种两难的形势，金融控股公司(Financial Holding Company)无疑是一种现实的选择。而通过组建金融     

中国金融业混业经营趋向与金融监管模式调整

随着全球经济一体化和金融自由化的发展，混业经营将成为国际金融业经营模式发展的基本模式。在这样国际背景下，从分业经营走向混业经营是入世后我国金融体制改革的必然趋势，金融监管模式也必须做出相应的调整。     

构建我国金融控股公司监管框架的设想

金融控股公司是金融业混业经营的产物，因其内部包含了经营不同金融业务或金融业务的多个受控公司，以及内部交易等问题的存在，使得对其实施金融监管更为复杂。在我国实行分业监管的情况下，各监管机构应建立良好的合作机制，更多关注对公司的总体性监管，以有效控制金融控股公司的经营风险。     

金融控股公司的发展与借鉴

面对金融全球化的趋势，１９９９年美国《金融服务现代化法案》的通过，使美国金融控股公司的竞争优势开始显现，花旋集团的成功就是一个很好的例子，我国加入ＷＴＯ在即，借鉴与发展金融控股公司是我国金融业走向混业经营的必然选择。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.