Accounting for diverse risk attitudes in measures of risk perceptions: A case study of climate change risk for small-scale citrus farmers in Indonesia

Climate change is likely to generate severe impacts on smallholder farmers in developing countries. As key drivers of adaptation, climate risk perceptions are highly heterogeneous, varying both across people and context, and are complex, being defined as behaviour which varies across both impact and likelihood dimensions in non-linear ways. Yet most studies examining risk perceptions are unable to disentangle the role of perceptions regarding impacts from those regarding the likelihood of climate-related events taking place. This paper presents a decomposition and associated analysis of survey-based ‘risk perception’ measures. The decomposition we apply allows independent accounting for perceptions over frequencies and impacts linking to behavioural patterns of risk attitude. The approach presented here draws on a detailed 2017 survey of 500 farmers in rural Indonesia to generate insights into the relationship between risk perceptions and extension services, accessibility of information, and other factors. Results show that risk perceptions are generated from complex interaction between perceived future frequencies and outcomes of climate events and indicate differential impacts of extension services across these perceptions. This paper also presents empirical support for the use of information and communication technology based extension as an efficient extension tool to reach more farmers than in traditional methods.     

Household behavior with respect to meat consumption in the presence of BSE and CWD

In this study, Canadian household meat consumption behavior in exotic (deer and elk meat) and traditional meats (beef, pork, chicken, turkey, bison, and seafood) is examined. This research introduces some differences in public response to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) risks across consumer segments from different sources of meat supply, including hunted meat. The analysis uses a combination of survey and household meat purchase data that include a balanced household panel of 2,393 households per year across time. A two-step estimation procedure is used with a probit model in the first step (consume or not) and a doublelog–translog two-stage demand system in the second step (level of consumption). It is assumed and tested that household sociodemographics, consumers’ risk perceptions/attitudes, and media coverage of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and chronic wasting disease (CWD) are underlying demand shifters in consumers’ daily meat purchase decision. The results suggest that households who obtain venison from hunting show the highest confidence in venison safety. Exotic meat preferences negatively affect traditional meat consumption in the daily diets of households who purchase traditional meats from stores and obtain venison from hunting. In response to the media coverage of BSE and CWD, exotic meat eaters are less sensitive to animal disease media information than the general population.     

Analysis of Beef Producers' Risk Management Perceptions and Desire for Further Risk Management Education

Beef cattle producers were surveyed in Texas and Nebraska to investigate perceptions of sources of risk, the effectiveness of risk management strategies, and interest in further risk management education, particularly production risk, using probit analysis. Important decision variables identified are age, prior use of risk management tools, previous attendances of risk management education, and risk aversion. Severe drought and cattle price variability are identified as primary risk factors with potential to affect farm income. Extremely cold weather and disease are of less importance. Understocking pasture and storing hay are perceived most effective as risk management options.     

Factors Influencing Farmers' Crop Insurance Decisions

Farmers' decisions to purchase crop insurance and their choices among alternative products are analyzed using a two-stage estimation procedure. The influences of risk perceptions, competing risk management options, as well structural and demographic differences are evaluated. The likelihood for crop insurance usage is found to be higher for larger, older, less tenured, more highly leveraged farms, and by those with higher perceived yield risks. The marginal effects of size, age, perceived yield risk, perceived importance of risk management activities, and other structural and demographic variables are identified in terms of their influences on choices among alternative crop insurance products.     

Consumer Perception of Food Safety Related Risk

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine what factors cause consumer risk perception during periods of food safety concern. A survey of 195 respondents was carried out to explore the nature of consumer perception of food safety related risk using multi-dimensional analysis and how this perception was affected. Multiple regression analysis was adopted to assess the effect of risk characteristics on consumer risk perception in terms of perceived health, psychological, financial, time and taste risks. All five regression models were highly significant. Characteristics of risk, such as severity of consequences, concern about safety, involuntary exposure to risk, harmful to the environment, information, exaggerated report and adequate regulations were found to be important for predicting consumer perception of microbiological risk in chicken. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Improving Food Safety at the Dairy Farm Level: Farmers' and Experts' Perceptions

This study examines farmers' and experts' perceptions of important action points for improving food safety on the dairy farm. Adaptive conjoint analysis is used to elicit these perceptions. A comparison on the basis of professional background (farmers versus experts) shows no major differences in the perceptions regarding chemical and microbiological hazards. Two-stage cluster analysis of individual perceptions regarding chemical and microbiological hazards results in four and three distinct groups, respectively. Although results indicate a rather good level of farmers' knowledge of most important action points, the findings can be used to modify current education programs aimed at improving farm-level food safety.     

Using quantitative influence diagrams to map natural resource managers’ mental models of invasive species management

Despite the significant effect that invasive species have on natural values, the number and extent of invasions continue to rise globally. At least three dominant reasons explain why policy development and implementation can fail: differences in managers’ mental models of invasive species management; cross-agency responsibility; and poor planning and management (i.e., planning–implementation gap). We used a case study of cross-agency management of gamba grass (Andropogon gayanus) in Australia to explore the differences in organizational staffs’ mental models of management. The gamba grass invasion in northern Australia is continuing to expand and associated effects are increasing; coordinated action across agencies is needed to manage the expansion. Our aim was to examine how staff would represent their mental models as a diagram that we could compare between individuals and groups. We used cognitive mapping techniques to elicit models of 15 individuals from across 5 organizations, represented as an influence diagram, which shows the interrelationships that define a system. We compiled the individual influence diagrams to create a team model of management that captures the common connections across participants’ diagrams. The team model revealed that education, science, legislation, enforcement and property management plans were perceived to be the most important management tools to control or eradicate gamba grass. The Weed Management Branch was perceived to have the most central role in gamba grass management, while other organizations were perceived to have specific roles according to their core business. Significant positive correlations (i.e., shared perceptions) were observed across half of the participants, indicating that the some participants have shared models that could be used as a starting point for discussing the team model, clarifying roles and responsibilities, and potentially building consensus around a shared model. Dominant opportunities for improvement identified by participants were better use of management tools, namely education and enforcement, better coordination and collaboration between agencies and increased resourcing. Our research demonstrates the value and validity of using influence diagrams to explore managers’ mental models and to create a team model that could serve as a starting point for improved cross-agency natural resource management.     

Economic Risk and Water Quality Protection in Agriculture

Producers' and consumers' risk perceptions and preferences can affect perceived costs and benefits of agricultural water quality protection. Many studies find that integrated pest management actually reduces economic risks to farmers. Results from crop rotation and conservation tillage studies are mixed, while nutrient management studies indicate a potential for higher risk compared with conventional practices. Uncertainty about pollution damages to water resources is likely also to increase the perceived benefits of a given quantity of water quality protection practices. Public policies to reduce uncertainty about the costs and benefits of water quality protection practices may produce net social benefits.     

Export Barriers in the Western Australian Horticulture Industry

This study was designed to identify perceived barriers to exports specific to Australian horticulture industry and the relative impact of these barriers on firms' export decisions. Specifically the study attempted to examine the differences, if any, in perceived export barriers by non-exporting and exporting firms. The analysis suggested seven major export barrier factors/variables. These barriers are somewhat different to barriers identified in recent studies suggesting that export barriers may be industry and country specific. The perceived seriousness of some of the barriers was significantly different for non-exporters and exporters. A discriminant analysis suggested, however, that it was not possible to predict whether a firm will be an exporter or not based on their perceptions of export barriers. The implications of the findings for the management of Australian horticulture exports are discussed.     

Meat Demand under Rational Habit Persistence

The objective of this paper is to explore the theoretical implications of a meat demand model with rational habit formation. The impact of food safety information on meat consumption is systematically analyzed. Important differences between myopic habits and rational habits are underscored. Both the adjustment path to the new equilibrium and new level of consumption are affected by consumers' perceptions of changes in meat quality. The analysis has implications for empirical demand estimation by incorporating consumers' expectations and use of event dummy variables rather than index measures of food safety.
Le présent article vise à explorer les implications théoriques d'un modèle de demande de viande avec formation d'habitudes rationnelles. Les répercussions de l'information concernant la sécurité alimentaire sur la consommation de viande ont été systématiquement analysées. Les différences importantes entre les habitudes rationnelles et les habitudes myopes ont été soulignées. Le chemin de rajustement du nouvel équilibre et du nouveau degré de consommation est affecté par la façon dont les consommateurs perçoivent les changements dans la qualité de la viande. L'analyse a des implications pour l'estimation empirique de la demande en raison de l'intégration des attentes des consommateurs et de l'utilisation de variables fictives plutôt que de mesures indicielles de la sécurité alimentaire.     

Urban parks: Visitors’ perceptions versus spatial indicators

Urban green spaces and their role in the quality of life of residents have been studied across multiple disciplines, based on empirical measurements or qualitative studies – however, the relation, and its strength, between spatial indicators of urban green spaces and visitors’ perceptions of green spaces are less known. Addressing this knowledge deficit, the present research uses a Geographical Information System (GIS) to link subjective evaluations of the physical environment and objective spatial indicators, to examine the correlation between the perceived and objective characteristics of five urban parks in the city of Szeged, Hungary. A questionnaire survey was used to collect residents’ subjective perceptions of the parks, while objective – which is to say measurable and mappable – spatially explicit indicators of the respective green spaces were calculated using GIS. The subjective evaluations of the parks were matched to the objective indicators using a multiple regression analysis. The statistical analysis yielded two moderate and two minor correlations between the human perceptions of the investigated green spaces and the nine objective environmental indicators examined. These results showed that subjective evaluations and objective data reveal different aspects of the same reality. Therefore, the recommendations from this study are to collectively use human perceptions and objective environmental indicators, both of which are fundamental for adequately capturing the role of urban green spaces in quality of life.     

Integrating preferences and social values for ecosystem services in local ecological management: A framework applied in Xiaojiang Basin Yunnan province,China

Previous works have made great progress in mapping and assessing ecosystem services (ES) that are directed toward exploring various aspects of ecological changes and economic values. These preferences, however, may neglect the important role of people who are the direct beneficiaries in this ecosystem. Therefore, including these stakeholders in ES assessment identifies their relations and perceptions between ecosystem services and society. In order to quantify and map these relations and perceptions, we designed and implemented an analytical framework based on the Public Participatory Geographic Information System (PPGIS) method to explore local stakeholders’ (Farmers, Government managers/Experts, and Company employees) similarities and differences in recognition of preferences and social values for ecosystem services in a typical Karst basin. Our results showed that remarkable differences appeared in preferences for ES across three groups. Farmers gave more preferences to provisioning services, Government managers/Experts to regulating and cultural services, and Company employees’ preferences were individualized. The spatial distributions and relations of social values for ES also showed great differentials. Provisioning services were always related to specific natural conditions, regulating services to forests, and cultural services to specific locations around tourism localities, forest, and wetland parks. The three stakeholder groups perceived more synergies than tradeoffs between the different ecosystem services. Landscape beauty was the most influential service in Farmers’ and Company employees’ perceptions, while Local climate change regulation was the most influential service in those of Government managers/Experts. The local stakeholders’ surveys can improve the enthusiasm of the local people to participate in environmental management and provide more socio-ecological information to help the managers alleviate the conflicts among different stakeholders.     

The income elasticity of meat: a meta‐analysis

The demand for meat has been estimated by many studies utilizing various data and estimation methods. In this study, we perform a meta‐analysis of the income elasticity of meat that involves regressing 3357 estimated income elasticities, collected from 393 studies, on variables that control for study characteristics. Across several meta‐regression specifications, we find significant differences in income elasticities tied to the type of meat being studied, as well as a few functional forms, data aggregations, publication characteristics, and locations of demand. However, many study characteristics do not significantly influence reported income elasticities. Less concern should be given to such characteristics when choosing an income elasticity from the literature.     

Willingness to Pay for Quality Labeled Meat in a Rural Area

The aim of this study is to identify consumer perceptions and attitudes toward quality labeled pork and beef using cross-sectional consumer data. Given the dramatic changes over the last years in the meat sector as a result of the recent food scares, the study can facilitate better communicating with consumers and gaining insight into their perceptions and behavior toward meat products. A consumer survey was conducted in the rural region of Thessaly in Greece in order to investigate (a) food quality perceptions, (b) attitudes toward pork and beef quality labels, and (c) intentions to purchase higher priced certified pork and beef. The findings suggest that sociodemographic and personal characteristics have an impact on consumer willingness to pay for such products and different market segments can be targeted by marketers and food policymakers.     

Consumer Welfare and the Loss Induced by Withholding Information: The Case of BSE in Italy

The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding information about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.     

The Diversity of Farmers' Risk Management Strategies in a Deregulated New Zealand Environment

In this paper, the results of a nation-wide survey of New Zealand sheep and beef farmers are presented. Multivariate statistical techniques are used to identify groups of farmers who differ in their risk management practices. Five groups are identified. They are labelled income risk reducers, capital managers, part-timers, debt and market risk managers, and production managers. These groups differ in their perceptions of risk sources and in some farm and farmer characteristics. Reasons for these differences are identified and discussed in the context of deregulation.     

Trade-offs between consumer concerns: An application for pork supply chains

This paper studies, by means of customized conjoint analysis, the trade-offs that Dutch consumers make between multiple pork-production attributes, and their relation to consumer concerns. Results show that attributes that deal with animal welfare and food safety are on average perceived as the most important pork-production attributes. Not surprisingly, they are less important than the product attributes taste and price. Still, a number of market segments can be identified in which taste and price are relatively less important. Results support the implementation of differentiated chain designs with distinct and innovative decisions on trade-offs to be made, such as with respect to the housing of pigs and the use of genetic modification.     

Risk and risk management in organic and conventional cash crop farming in Norway

This study presents empirical insight into organic and conventional cash crop farmers' perceptions of risk and risk management strategies, and identifies socio-economic variables linked to these perceptions. The data originate from a questionnaire survey of farmers in Norway. The results indicate that organic farmers perceived themselves to be less risk averse than conventional farmers. For both groups, crop prices and yield variability were the two top rated sources of risk, followed by institutional risks. The two groups evaluated risk management strategies quite similarly; favoured strategies were good liquidity and to prevent and reduce crop diseases and pests. The farmers' evaluation of sources of risk and choice of risk strategies depended on various socio-economic variables. The importance of institutional risks implies that policy makers should be cautious about changing policy capriciously and they should consider strategic policy initiatives that give farmers more long-term reliability.     

Perceptions of the risks and benefits of genetically-modified foods and their influence on willingness to consume

There has been debate in the literature as to whether: (1) the risks and benefits of genetically-modified (GM) food and agriculture are considered and determined by individuals separately or whether they are jointly determined by attitudes; (2) consumer acceptance is determined by individuals weighing up their risk and benefit perceptions in a rational, even-handed manner, or if benefit perceptions are more important than risk perceptions, and (3) certain types of risk and benefit are more important than others. Against this background, this paper assesses the categories of risks and benefits and their relative importance in determining willingness to consume. A survey was carried out to collect data on the categories of risks and benefits in the US, UK and France, and the relative importance of selected perceived risk and benefit dimensions was estimated. The findings show: risk and benefit perceptions are negatively correlated, but not perfectly and, given that regressions we performed support the proposition that benefits are more important than risks in determining willingness to consume, a strong case can be made for measuring risks and benefits separately. Almost 2/3 of consumers perceive medium to high potential benefits from GM, though the proportion is slightly lower in the UK and down to 40% in France. Nevertheless, this suggests a much higher level of support for the technology than is normally assumed. From the study, benefits are more important for consumers' willingness to consume than perceived risks, and slightly more interviewees scored above than below the mean on willingness to consume GM food.     

Product quality and value from consumer perspective—An application to wooden products

Product quality as perceived by consumers is studied with the use of empirical survey data on wooden flooring/panelling materials and on wooden furniture markets in Finland. The results indicate that consumers’ quality perceptions are consistent for the two product categories. Perceived product quality may be understood as a hierarchical structure, which consists of tangible and intangible dimensions, and is fairly consistent for different products. The most abstract dimensions are reflected in more specific sub-dimensions and product attributes. For consumers, the quality of the tangible product is more important than the quality of the product intangibles in the case of wooden products. Perceived product value is determined as customers’ judgement of the relationship between perceived product quality and price. It was also observed to be a two-dimensional structure with tangible and intangible dimensions. The observed dimensions of perceived product quality and value were logically linked.