Unemployment, Real Wages and the Money Supply in Australia*

Many observers have attributed the high unemployment experienced in Australia in the 1970s to the rises in real wages which have occurred in the decade. An alternative or additional hypothesis is that unemployment has resulted from policy directed at controlling inflation and that this has been exacerbated by the occurrence of adverse external factors, particularly bul not solely the oil price shocks, which have made inflation more difficult than otherwise to control .
The results of econometric tests suggest that a significant portion of fluctuations in the unemployment rate can be explained by real wage movements, and as well monetary policy through its effects on the real money supply also seems to affect unemployment. Both real wage rises and monetary restrictions appear to have contributed to the jump in unemployment in 1974–75, and since then the continuing high and rising unemployment rate is closely associated with the low growth rate of the real money supply .     

Money Wages, Consumer Prices, and Causality in Australia*

This paper exploits recently developed statistical techniques to examine the causal patterns in lag relationships between changes in wages and consumer prices. The analysis uses quarterly data for selected periods and a total historical sample period 1954-82. Causation has generally been unidirectional from wages to prices. However, for the first half of the 1970s bidirectional causation was detected, though the causation from wages to prices was statistically more significant. Brief consideration is given to some policy implications of the results.     

中国产出冲击持久性影响的实证分析

产出冲击持久性影响的检验和估计是国外研究的热点.本文采集1952-2004年中国实际GDP数据,采用基于ARMA模型的脉冲反应函数的方法估计了中国产出冲击持久性影响的衡量指数.结果表明,整个样本期间产出冲击持久性影响的衡量指数为0.959,改革前和改革后这一指数分别为0.754和3.314,说明冲击对产出的影响具有持久性,但整个样本期间和改革前这种影响会被缩小,而改革后这种影响则会被放大.这些结果对宏观调控政策的操作具有一定意义.     

A Note on Causality Between Money,Wages and Prices in Australia*

Lead and lag relationships between money, wages. and prices are examined using Australian data. Granger causality tests support univariate causality running from money to both wages and prices. This result is consistent with a monetarist explanation of inflation.     

Persistence of Shocks to Output in Austria and Theories of Economic Growth

The paper analyzes the degree of output persistence in GDP in order toempirically discriminate between the Solow growth model, the perfect competition endogenous growth model and the imperfect competition endogenous growth model for the case of Austria. Wefind that a shock in the growth rate of output induces a permanent and larger effect on the level of GDP. This leads us to refute the Solow growth model and the perfect competition model of endogenous growth.We may not reject the imperfect competition growth model.     

Foreign Money Shocks and the Welfare Performance of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes*

The welfare properties of monetary policy regimes for a country subject to foreign money shocks are examined in a two‐country sticky‐price model. Money targeting is found to be welfare superior to a fixed exchange rate when the expenditure switching effect of exchange rate changes is relatively weak, but a fixed rate is superior when the expenditure switching effect is strong. However, price targeting is superior to both these regimes for all values of the expenditure switching effect. A welfare‐maximising monetary rule yields lower output and exchange rate volatility than price targeting for a wide range of parameter values.     

货币冲击、房地产收益波动与最优货币政策选择

与传统资产定价模型中风险收益权衡关系相悖,我国房地产市场存在投资异象和波动长记忆性特征。文章利用泰勒规则(Taylor Rule)的利率缺口,在剔除市场预期之后测度了中国市场的货币政策冲击,并基于房地产投资回报的时序数据波动聚集性和时变性特征构建GARCH(1,1)-M模型,以此度量我国房地产市场投资收益的波动演变路径,解释了央行实施加息的货币政策后当期房价反而上涨的投资现象。文章还立足于房地产市场参与人的投资特征,从行为金融学的全新研究视角出发,建立包含行为资产定价的动态模型经济系统,研究资产价格波动与最优货币政策选择问题,求得相应闭型解,为实施关注资产价格波动的最优货币政策提供理论基础。     

International Transmission of Monetary Shocks and the Non‐neutrality of International Money

Monetary shocks and how they are transmitted internationally are investigated in this paper. The paper shows that where a national currency is used as an international medium of exchange, the international money is non‐neutral. In particular, an increase in the supply of the international money leads to a transfer of real resources to the international money‐issuing country from its trading partner. It also induces an expansion of the nontradable sector in the international money‐issuing country, and an expansion of the tradable sector in its trading partner. The real impact of a monetary shock is greater under a fixed exchange rate system than under a flexible exchange rate system.     

关于电子货币理论与现实问题的探讨

电子货币的产生是货币发展史上的第三次革命。电子货币同传统货币相比具有虚拟货币、在线货币、信息货币、结算和支付货币、准通货等特性。电子货币在活跃和繁荣商业 ,刺激消费、扩大需求 ,促进营销结构和营销方式的创新 ,加剧竞争、提高质量和对整个金融业经营方式的影响等方面产生了巨大的社会经济影响。电子货币同时带来了诸多问题与挑战 ,如电子货币的发行主体在法律上如何定位 ,中央银行如何监管 ,电子货币的安全使用 ,银行金融业如何顺应电子化发展趋势 ,电子货币的税收监控、法律规范和如何规避电子清算系统风险等。     

Staggered Wage Setting in Normal and Real Terms: A Comparative Analysis*

This paper analyses the behaviour of an economy characterized by staggered wage contract rules specified in nominal and in real terms. It is shown that staggered contracts in real terms imply complex eigenvalues which cause oscillatory paths both for output and unemployment and stonger output losses in response to an unexpected and permanent fall in the growth rate of money supply.     

Real Wages,Demand and Employment in the UK 1921–1938: A Disaggregated Analysis

This paper uses the Layard and Nickell model of the labour market to examine the determinants of employment at a sectoral level for the interwar UK economy. Sectoral level data permits examination of the differing responses to changes in the determinants of employment. Estimation of employment functions indicates significant elasticities with respect to aggregate demand variables across a wide range of sectors but less support for a negative real wage effect, particularly in those industries responsible for major losses in employment. The evidence is therefore more consistent with the low-aggregate-demand explanation of labour market behaviour than it is with the high-real-wage hypothesis.     

房地产行业洗钱行为分析及监测

洗钱活动逐渐从金融机构向其他领域蔓延,房地产行业已成为洗钱的高发地。对比房地产行业洗钱的两大主体——腐败的公职人员和以民营企业家为代表的非公职人员的洗钱行为,结果表明:腐败的公职人员注重安全效用,常常通过能在短时间内利用他人名义的房地产交易活动洗钱,具有较强的隐蔽性;非公职人员则注重收益最大化,主要通过将非法资金注入企业经营,虚假报账,具有较强的欺骗性。     

货币需求、流动性约束与减税效应

本文试图考察减税对中国总需求的短期影响.文中分析表明,由于流动性约束存在,因而李嘉图等价定理不成立,暂时性减税能够影响总需求.通过利用中国数据进行实证研究发现,中国消费支出适合作为货币需求函数中的规模变量;在此基础上的校准和计算则进一步说明,减税可能通过增加货币需求而紧缩总需求.本文隐含的政策意义是,减税在中国并不能起到扩大内需的作用.     

Education, Work and Wages in the UK

Abstract. This paper is concerned with the relationship between education, wages and working behaviour. The work is partly motivated by the sharp distinction in the literature between the returns to education and the effect of wages on labour supply. Education is the investment that cumulates in the form of human capital while labour supply is the utilization rate of that stock. Yet, variation in education is usually the basis for identifying labour supply models – education is assumed to determine wages but not affect labour supply. Moreover, it is commonly assumed that the private rate of return to education can be found from the schooling coefficient in a log-wage equation. Yet, the costs of education are largely independent of its subsequent utilization but the benefits will be higher the greater the utilization rate. Thus the returns will depend on how intensively that capital is utilized and we would expect that those who intend to work least to also invest least in human capital. Indeed, the net (of tax liabilities and welfare entitlements) return to education will be a complex function of labour supply and budget constraint considerations.
Here we attempt to model the relationship between wages, work, education and the tax/welfare system allowing for the endogeneity of education as well for the correlations between the unobservable components of wages and working behaviour. We use the estimates to simulate the effect of a new UK policy designed to increase education for children from low-income households.     

Unit Root Investigation of Greek Real Money Supply and GDP

In this article, the time series of Greek real GDP and real money supply are investigated for the presence of a unit root, allowing for maximum two breaks which take place at an unknown point in time. This methodology is preferred to conventional Dickey & Fuller tests because the covered time horizon, namely from 1858 to 1938, is characterized by a number of very important events, the nature of which is either economic or historical. In addition, time series stationarity is checked through a Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) test.University of Macedonia—Greece. The article was presented at the Fifty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, England, March 9–13, 2005     

实际汇率、工资和就业--对中国贸易部门和非贸易部门的实证研究

在同时考虑贸易部门和非贸易部门的情况下,实际汇率贬值会增加贸易部门就业,但会减少非贸易部门就业,对实际工资的影响则是不确定的.按照理论分析的结果,文章对人民币实际汇率和中国两部门实际工资及就业的关系进行协整检验,结果发现:人民币实际汇率贬值显著增加贸易部门就业,但非贸易部门就业对实际汇率变动不敏感,而两部门的实际工资和实际汇率之间则都没有协整关系存在.进一步检验发现实际汇率变动对就业在贸易和非贸易部门之间的结构也没有影响.总的结论认为,即使考虑到非贸易部门,人民币实际汇率升值对整个就业也是不利的,而贬值有利于整个就业.