基于FP树的挖掘关联规则的增量式更新的研究

关联规则的高效维护算法研究是当前数据库研究的热点之一。本文研究了事务数据库中关联规则的增量式更新问题，提出了基于频繁模式树的关联规则增量式更新算法的设计思路，以处理最小支持度或事务数据库发生变化后关联规则的更新问题。     

基于关联规则挖掘的供应链风险识别

文章从系统内部和外部风险的角度对供应链风险的影响因素进行分析。在研究已有的风险识别方法的基础上,重点以风险因素和风险事件之间的关联关系为切入点,提出基于关联规则挖掘的供应链风险识别的方法,建立了基于关联规则挖掘方法的供应链风险识别模型,通过仿真实例,验证了模型方法的有效性。     

国际标准化组织标准必要专利评析

标准必要专利是实施标准必不可少的专利,是技术标准和知识产权相结合的产物。本文基于国际标准化组织所披露的标准必要专利,结合其所关联的标准、专利、研发机构,在对专利信息进行同族扩展的基础上,从技术领域、关联标准、持有机构、地理信息及技术研发到技术市场的流动等角度进行了整体分析,以展现标准化领域知识产权活动的特点。     

企业政治关联指数模型构建研究

企业政治关联日益引起学者们的研究兴趣,但其度量却是一个难题。本文在分析国内外常用的政治关联度量方法的基础上,指出其不足之处,并认为政治关联具有层级性、规模性和时效性等本质特征,进而建立指标体系,并利用层次分析法构建政治关联指数模型。最后选择2009年深圳中小板的10家民营上市公司,应用指数模型计算政治关联指数。结果显示,政治关联指数模型较好地度量了政治关联的强度差异。同时,本文也指出由于指标体系的构建和层次分析法具有一定的主观性,因此政治关联指数模型也具有一定的主观性。     

基于多元技术会聚的会聚影响力研究

近年来,知识体系间呈现交叉、融合发展态势,技术会聚对创新发展的影响日益加深,应对这一态势的关键在于把握技术会聚的核心技术领域。多领域交叉关系是当前技术会聚研究重点,以此为视角,以专利分类代码信息为研究对象,采用关联算法探测领域间的会聚关系,建立多元交叉影响关系测度模型,并引入特征向量中心度指标测度领域会聚影响力。运用以上构建方法,对生物技术领域相关专利进行实证分析,从而验证方法的可行性。     

超市事务数据库挖掘关联规则的设计

现在全球经济发展正在进入信息经济时代,各种形式的信息大量地产生和收集导致了信息爆炸,如何采用基于关联规则的数据挖掘技术发现超市事务数据库中的关联规则是本文所研究和探讨的重点。     

基于邻域用户模型的主题推荐研究

传统的基于用户兴趣主题的主题推荐中,由于数据的稀疏性以及对邻域好友之间的影响作用考虑不够深入,推荐的效果不佳。为了丰富目标用户的兴趣集,文章在基于本体的基本用户模型之上,引入邻域用户兴趣集,计算更新邻域主题兴趣度,根据获取的目标用户兴趣主题集来进行主题的匹配推荐。最后通过两个不同的数据集对模型进行推荐效果验证,结论表明文章所提出的用户模型的推荐效果是明显要优于传统用户模型。     

超市事务数据库挖掘关联规则的设计

现在全球经济发展正在进入信息经济时代,各种形式的信息大量地产生和收集导致了信息爆炸,如何采用基于关联规则的数据挖掘技术发现超市事务数据库中的关联规则是本文所研究和探讨的重点.     

基于关联规则挖掘的信用卡欺诈研究——以德国为例

关联规则分析作为数据挖掘中一个重要的组成部分,能够有效发现大量数据中相关属性集之间有意义的关联关系,从而为政策或规则的制定提供参考依据。近年来,关联规则分析已被广泛应用到零售、物流、信用卡营销及风险管理等众多领域。基于此,从介绍关联规则分析的基本概念出发,以德国信用卡为例,使用Intelligent Miner软件,探讨信用卡持卡人信用卡欺诈所具有的一般特性,对提升业务风险管理技术有所裨益。     

关联规则挖掘算法改进研究

文章讨论了数据挖掘的一般理论,研究了关联规则挖掘算法以及经典的Apriori算法,分析了算法存在的问题,并提出了新的基于压缩矩阵的关联规则挖掘算法。理论分析和仿真实验显示改进算法的性能明显优于Apriori算法。     

An inventory of simple monetary policy rules in a New Keynesian macroeconomic model

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for simple monetary policy rules that guarantee equilibrium determinacy in the New Keynesian monetary model. Our modeling framework is derived from a fully specified optimization model that is amenable to analytical characterisation. The monetary rules analyzed are variants of the basic Taylor rules ranging from simple inflation targeting (current, forward, backward) to canonical Taylor rules with and without inertial nominal interest rates. We establish that determinacy obtains for a wide range of policy parameters, especially when the monetary authority targets output and smoothes interest rates. Contrary to other results in the literature, we do not find a case for super-inertial interest rate policy.     

Monetary policy rules with PID control features: evidence from the UK,USA and EU

ABSTRACT

This paper considers the extent to which the monetary policy operations of three major central banks can be regarded as an application of Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control rules. The paper outlines the general PID framework and estimates a series of dynamic models to identify how interest rate policy adjustments are affected by the rate of inflation and the level of macroeconomic activity. The paper examines data for the UK, the USA and the Eurozone. The results suggest that the PID rules can provide a useful theoretical and empirical framework for estimating central bank responses to the inflation and macroeconomic activity variables by improving the explanatory power of the Taylor rule model and determining the effect of the parameters.     

一般均衡中的利率、确定性与最优规则

利率规则理论是以短期利率作为货币政策工具而发展起来的一套新的理论,它体现了货币经济学家在货币政策领域内的新的尝试和努力。在利率规则理论中,货币经济学家试图解决两个问题:利率规则冲击对非政策经济变量的短期影响是什么,以及一个好的利率规则应当具有怎样的性质。利率规则将短期利率作为非政策经济变量的内生反应函数,使得货币经济学家可以在一般均衡模型中探讨这两个问题。然而,由于利率规则从一开始就是出于一种偏好的设定,因此,讨论的结果并不符合稳健性和科学性的要求,这就削弱了理论预言的可靠性。在某种意义上,利率规则理论若想成为一门真正的"科学的艺术",它就必须为内生利率规则寻找到一个坚固的微观基础。本文梳理评述了利率规则理论在经验上和理论上的成就和不足。     

Firms’ money demand and monetary policy

Standard New Keynesian models for monetary policy analysis are ‘cashless’. When the nominal interest rate is the central bank's operating instrument, the LM equation is endogenous and, it is argued, can be ignored. The modern theoretical and quantitative debate on the importance of money for monetary policy conduct, however, overlooks firms’ money demand. Working in an otherwise canonical New Keynesian setup, we show that macroeconomic dynamics are critically affected by the firms’ money demand choice. Under the conventional Taylor‐rule framework, we prove that equilibrium determinacy may require either an active interest rate policy, overreacting to inflation, or a passive interest rate policy, underreacting to inflation, depending on the elasticity of production with respect to cash balances. We then develop a numerical analysis to evaluate our theoretical results. We find that macroeconomic stability is more likely to occur under an active, but not overly aggressive, monetary policy stance. We also examine the dynamic effects of forward‐looking feedback rules. We show that, in this policy regime, indeterminacy is likely to be induced by both active and passive rules, even for relatively low productivity effects of money.     

Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules

This article demonstrates the diverse dynamic possibilities arising out of a simple macroeconomic model of debt-financed investment-led growth in the presence of interest rate rules. We show possibilities of convergence to steady state, and growth cycles around it as well as various complex dynamics. We investigate whether, given this framework, the financial sector can provide endogenous bounds to an otherwise unstable system. The effectiveness of monetary policy in the form of an interest rate rule targeting capacity utilization is examined under this context.     

Performance of interest rate rules under credit market imperfections

The stabilization effects of Taylor rules are analyzed in a limited participation framework with and without credit market imperfections in capital goods production. Financial frictions substantially amplify the impact of shocks, and also reinforce the stabilizing or destabilizing effects of interest rate rules on output. However, these effects are reversed relative to new Keynesian models: under limited participation, interest rate rules are stabilizing for productivity shocks, but imply an output-inflation tradeoff for demand shocks. Moreover, because financial frictions imply excessive fluctuation, stabilization via an interest rate rule can be a welfare-improving response to productivity shocks.     

货币政策组合规则

本文建议在泡沫高涨时将货币政策由利率规则转为货币量规则。在本文设定的CIA模型经济中，外生泡沫通过金融渠道对经济发生影响。本文证实，即使是遵循了泰勒原则的利率规则也会因为对融资活动的增长提供相应的货币支持而实际上起到助长泡沫经济的作用；而货币量规则由于对货币供应的控制而能起到缩短并稳定泡沫经济影响的效果。本文的模拟实验表明，在大型泡沫经济中将利率规则与货币量规则组合使用能取得更好的宏观经济成果。同时，将不同规则进行组合使用的思想在货币政策的研究中是新颖的，本文还发展了模型对接的技术处理方法。     

A comparison of optimal policy rules prior to and during inflation targeting: empirical evidence from Bank of Canada

We examine policy rules that are consistent with inflation targeting (IT) framework in a small macroeconomic model of the Canadian economy. We set up an optimal linear regulator problem and derive policy rules to compare the dynamics of pre-IT and IT eras. We find that while the optimal monetary policy rule in the pre-IT period is best described with a loss function that attaches equal weight to price stability, financial stability and output stability; the IT era is dominated by the price stability objective followed by the financial stability and output stability, consecutively. Moreover, we do not find an explicit role for exchange rate stability in the objective function of the Bank of Canada for both monetary policy eras. We, then, compare the properties of the derived optimal rules with those of an ad hoc Taylor rule for the IT period. In response to inflationary shocks, Taylor rule brings down inflation rates more quickly compared to the derived policy rules, but at the cost of a higher sacrifice ratio and more volatile interest rates.     

OPTIMAL INCOME TAXATION,DYNAMIC EFFICIENCY,AND THE SOCIAL COST OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURE*

An interest income tax and a publicly provided private good are introduced into the Hamada overlapping-generations model consisting of heterogeneous individuals where the government can use a wage-income tax, an identical lump-sum transfer, and the public debt. Two interesting problems are studied: (a) what relation exists between the optimal interest rate and the population-growth rate and (b) how dynamic efficiency affects the optimal-decision rules of taxes and the publicly provided good. We show that (i) if the government can (not) tax the interest income, then the optimal interest rate is (not) equal to the population-growth rate, (ii) without the availability of the interest tax the difference between these two rates is mainly caused by the income-distribution effect of the public debt and (iii) the dynamic efficiency effects on the optimal rules of the wage tax and the publicly provided good depend on not only such a difference but also the average substitute-complement relations among leisure, the second-period consumption and the publicly provided good.     

INTEREST RATE RULES AND WELFARE IN OPEN ECONOMIES

This paper analyses the welfare performance of a set of five alternative interest rate rules in an open economy stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities. A rule with a lagged interest rate term, high feedback on inflation and low feedback on output is found to yield the highest welfare for a small open economy. This result is robust across different degrees of openness, different sources of home and foreign shocks, alternative foreign monetary rules and different specifications for price-setting behaviour. The same rule emerges as both the Nash and cooperative equilibria in a two-country version of the model.