Using food prices and consumption to examine Chinese cost of living

This paper considers two approaches to examining potential bias in China's consumer price index: (i) inferring true changes in cost of living from consumer behaviour; and (ii) creating alternative price indices to compare with official indices. For (i), our semi‐parametric estimates agree with the recent finding of a large understatement in increases to the true cost of living. For (ii), we focus on food prices and explore potential causes of bias. We find some evidence of a new‐good bias. China's large‐scale migration also causes changes in the cost of living that are not reflected in the consumer price index.     

HOW TO MEASURE LIVING STANDARDS AND PRODUCTIVITY

I set out a general algorithm for calculating true cost‐of‐living indices when demand is not homothetic and when the number of products may be large. The non‐homothetic case is the important one empirically (Engel's Law). The algorithm can be applied in both time series and cross section. It can also be used to estimate true producer price indices and Total Factor Productivity in the presence of input‐biased economies of scale and technical change. The basic idea is to calculate a chain index of prices but with actual budget (cost) shares replaced by compensated shares, i.e. what the shares would have been if consumers (firms) faced actual prices but their utility (output) were held constant at some reference level. The compensated shares can be derived econometrically from the same data as are required for the construction of conventional index numbers. The algorithm is illustrated by applying it to estimating true PPPs for 141 countries and 100 products within household consumption, using data from the World Bank's latest International Comparison Program.     

PURCHASING POWER PARITIES IN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS: QUANTITY vs. PRICE COMPARISONS

Just as intertemporal price indices have two functions, to measure price changes and to deflate current values to constant values, this is true also for interspatial price indices, purchasing power parities (PPPs). In practice these two functions of PPPs, for conversion and for comparing price levels, are not always distinguished, and this may have some disadvantages since in a number of cases the differences between the two PPPs might be considerable. The authors review the differences in content of the two types of PPPs, and make some suggestions for making the distinction more explicitly.     

ON THE BIASES IN FOREIGN TRADE INDICES*

Starting out from the observation that both imports and exports may be viewed as the difference between domestic consumption (use) and production, static standard theory of biases in consumption and production indices is brought to bear upon trade indices: Laspeyres tends to overrate when applied to imports and to underrate when applied to exports; for Paasche, the opposite holds true. Hence, terms of trade tend to be underrated (exaggerated) when based upon Laspeyres (Paasche) price indices. The problem of extending these conclusions to the case of changes in production frontiers and preference maps is discussed. When homotheticity is absent, correlation between price and quantity relatives may upset the simple conclusions. This is of special importance in the large-country situation. Dynamics further complicate the situation. A cobweb mechanism in exports may thus reverse the static results.     

DEPRIVATION,INEQUALITY AND WELFARE*

Welfare ranking of income distributions involves a trade‐off between equity and efficiency. A person's feeling of deprivation about higher incomes may be of a relative or absolute type. We consider an intermediate notion of deprivation, a convex mix of relative and absolute deprivations. We then look at the problem of welfare ranking of income distributions when welfare increases under a globally equitable redistribution and under an income increase that keeps intermediate deprivation fixed. All deprivation indices can be regarded as inequality indices but the converse is not true. We also provide a numerical illustration of our results.     

The inadequacy of cost of living indices based on subjective preferences: an ethical and methodological critique

In this paper we argue that there is scant justification for replacing the traditional fixed‐basket Laspeyres price index with so called ‘true cost of living indices’. We begin with a discussion of the possible explanations for some empirical results for inflation found for different social groups in Ireland in the late 1990s. Our arguments concerning appropriate inflation indices are primarily ethical and are not dependent on these results being interpreted in a non‐neoclassical vein. They do however gain extra force if one accepts non‐neoclassical explanations for the empirical results. We go on to draw conclusions as to how best to measure the welfare effects of changes in the price of goods. This links in to the broader debate regarding objective versus subjective measures of welfare.     

Household composition,Engel curves and welfare comparisons between households: A duality approach

This paper is about household composition effects in consumer theory. These are important for the specification and estimation of Engel curves and demand functions. The models examined here have important applications in the areas of the measurement of cost of living indices, the study of poverty and inequality and in certain aspects of social policy. The models are based on the approach of Barten (1964). Taste differences between households are parameterized in a way which has been called simple good augmenting or simple repackaging in the literature on quality change. In this theory, changes in household composition play an analogous role to price changes. ‘True household equivalent scales’ are developed which are analogous to true cost of living indices and permit welfare comparisons across households.     

基于能值分析的江苏生态经济系统发展态势及持续发展对策

能值分析方法可同时定量研究生态经济系统中环境资源与经济活动的真实价值，因而对合理评估区域经济发展水平、制订正确的社会经济发展对策具有十分重要的意义。文章运用能值分析方法对江苏生态经济系统的发展现状及近20年来的发展态势进行了定量分析，并提出实现江苏生态经济系统持续发展的对策建议。     

Regime-switching in volatility and correlation structure using range-based models with Markov-switching

This study examines latent shifts in the conditional volatility and correlation for the U.S. stock and T-bond data using the two-state Markov-switching range-based volatility and correlation models. This paper comes up with clear evidence of volatility regime-switching in stock indices and T-bond over the crisis period. As regards the process of correlation, we also find evidence of regime changes in correlations between stock indices and T-bond over several financial crises. We conclude that the phenomena of both volatility and correlation regime-switching are triggered by these financial crises. In addition, the range-based volatility and correlation model with regime-switching method could explicitly point out the true date of structure changes in the data generating process for volatility and correlation variables.     

A comparison of six sampling schemes for price index construction in a COICOP food group

This article compares the behaviour of sampling techniques for price indices using a scanner data set as a model population. Indices produced by two purposive deterministic cut-off designs and four probabilistic sampling schemes are compared with each other and with the ‘true’ population index from the whole data set. We found that the two deterministic cut-off sampling schemes show much different behaviour from the probabilistic sampling schemes. This is not unexpected, as the former schemes have a very restricted focus with respect to the variety of products. We also found that the probabilistic schemes are generally closer to each other and the ‘true’ value than the deterministic cut-off designs. The jackknife resampling technique is also explored as a means of estimating the SE of the index and compared with the actual results from repeated sampling.     

Comparing the True Cost of Living Indices of Demographically Different Households

The comparison of true cost of living indices between demographically different households (relative equivalence scale) is argued to be sensitive to the way demographic characteristics enter demand analysis. In particular, parameters reflecting the cost of demographic characteristics at base prices, though themselves do not have welfare (equivalence scale) interpretation, can alter the benchmark from which demographically varying inflation effects are measured. The empirical analysis, based on a rank‐3 demand system applied to UK individual household data, shows that the inflation adjustment of child benefits can vary with the way demographic costs at base period prices are specified.     

How global is FDI? Evidence from the analysis of Theil indices

It is open to question whether the intensified worldwide competition for FDI has reduced its traditionally strong concentration in a few large and relatively advanced host countries. We calculate and decompose Theil indices to track changes in absolute and relative concentration of FDI during the period 1970–2013. We find that both absolute and relative concentration decreased when excluding offshore financial centers from the overall sample. In addition to the narrowing gap between OECD and non-OECD countries, the concentration across non-OECD countries declined for both the absolute and relative measures. This is also true for major subgroups of non-OECD countries. Finally, recent developments indicate that low-income countries are no longer at the losing end of the competition for FDI.     

Partial‐ and General‐Equilibrium Measures of Trade Restrictiveness

New partial‐equilibrium forms of the Trade Restrictiveness Index and the Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index have recently been used by the World Bank and others. In this paper we examine the bias in the partial‐equilibrium forms due to the neglect of general‐equilibrium effects. We propose “semi‐general‐equilibrium” measures that capture those general‐equilibrium effects due to vertical input–output relations without the need for a computable general‐equilibrium model. These measures also incorporate nontariff measures. Australian data are used to compute the semi‐general‐equilibrium measures. These estimates indicate that the partial‐equilibrium forms generally underestimate the true value of the indices, and by a large margin in some cases.     

Empirical Evidence of the Leverage Effect in a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Realized Volatility Approach

Increasing attention has been focused on the analysis of the realized volatility, which can be treated as a proxy for the true volatility. In this paper, we study the potential use of the realized volatility as a proxy in a stochastic volatility model estimation. We estimate the leveraged stochastic volatility model using the realized volatility computed from five popular methods across six sampling-frequency transaction data (from 1-min to 60- min) based on the trust region method. Availability of the realized volatility allows us to estimate the model parameters via the MLE and thus avoids computational challenge in the high dimensional integration. Six stock indices are considered in the empirical investigation. We discover some consistent findings and interesting patterns from the empirical results. In general, the significant leverage effect is consistently detected at each sampling frequency and the volatility persistence becomes weaker at the lower sampling frequency.     

Technical and environmental efficiencies and best management practices in agriculture

An Input Distance Function (IDF) is estimated to empirically evaluate and analyse the technical and environmental efficiencies of 210 farms located in the Chaudière watershed (Quebec), where water quality problems are particularly acute because of the production of undesirable outputs that are jointly produced with agricultural products. The true IDF is approximated by a flexible translog functional form estimated using a full information maximum likelihood method. Technical and environmental efficiencies are disaggregated across farms and account for spatial variations. Our results show that there is a significant correlation between the two efficiencies. The IDF is used to compute the cumulative Malmquist productivity index and the Fisher index. The two indices are used to measure changes in technology, profitability, efficiency and productivity in response to the adoption of two selected Best Management Practices (BMPs) whose objective is to reduce water pollution. We found significant differences across BMPs regarding the direction and the magnitude of their effect.     

MEASURING NON‐ECONOMIC WELL‐BEING ACHIEVEMENT

Income per capita and most widely reported, non‐ or non‐exclusively income based human well‐being indicators are highly correlated among countries. Yet many countries exhibit higher achievement in the latter than predicted by the former. The reverse is true for many other countries. This paper commences by extracting the inter‐country variation in a composite of various widely‐reported, non‐income‐based well‐being indices not accounted for by variations in income pre capita. This extraction is interpreted inter alia as a measure of non‐economic well‐being. The paper then looks at correlations between this extraction and a number of new or less widely‐used well‐being measures, in an attempt to find the measure that best captures these achievements. A number of indicators are examined, including measures of poverty, inequality, health status, education status, gender bias, empowerment, governance and subjective well‐being.     

CONSISTENCY-IN-AGGREGATION AND STUVEL INDICES

In the National Accounts framework a frequent use is made of value, price, and quantity indices. Three requirements appear to be of vital importance. (i) For each aggregate the price index multiplied by the quantity index must be equal to the value index. (ii) The indices must be consistent-in-aggregation (which means something more than that a single-step calculation yields the same outcome as a two-or-more-step calculation). (iii) The indices must satisfy the equality test (defined in this paper). In this paper it is shown that the only indices satisfying these three requirements are the generalized Stuvel (1957) indices. These indices satisfy the Eichhorn and Voeller (1983) axioms for price and quantity indices. However, if one also requires that the indices be linearly homogeneous in current period prices and quantities then the only admissible indices are those of Laspeyres and Paasche.     

Value-Added Trade and Empirical Distributions of RCA Indices

Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indices aid in identification of the sectors in which countries reveal comparative advantage or disadvantage. Apart from serving such a dichotomous measure, the RCA indices are frequently employed as cardinal or ordinal measures over time. Application of the indices for comparative analyses calls attention towards the distributions of RCA indices, which must reasonably be stable over time, sectors and countries. Stability of index distributions facilitates the usage of indices as cardinal or ordinal measures over time. The present paper therefore analyses the empirical distributions of RCA indices to determine their suitability. However, such an analysis would be incomplete if the implications for RCA indices due to growing significance of global supply chains are not recognized. Hence apart from analyzing the distributions of gross trade based RCA indices, the distributions of domestic value-added in export based indices are also examined, and the differences are noted. Similar extensive analyses on the distributions of RCA indices are lacking in the literature. In this sense, the present paper makes an important contribution to the existing literature on RCA indices.

     

A 'pricing-to-market' model with unobserved variables: explaining New Zealand's import prices

A model of ‘pricing-to-market’ (PTM) behaviour in import prices is developed for a small open economy to allow for two measurement problems: (i) that neither the marginal production cost of imported goods nor their corresponding (foreign-currency) export price are observable by the econometrician; (ii) that PTM behaviour, if it exists, alters the relationship between foreign countries' export price indices for total exports and the true, unobservable price index. The analysis shows that variations in the measured markup on import prices depends on the degree to which domestic demand is synchronized with world demand, whether bilateral exchange rate movements are due to domestic or foreign factors, and on the degree to which PTM behaviour differs from such behaviour in other countries. Equations estimated for the price of New Zealand (NZ) imports from the US strongly supports the model, and finds that the degree of PTM by US exporters in response to price and exchange rate movements is substantially greater in NZ than the average for other countries. However, the degree of PTM in NZ in response to excess demand is similar to that of other countries.     

Using sparse categorical principal components to estimate asset indices: new methods with an application to rural southeast asia

Asset indices have been used since the late 1990s to measure wealth in developing countries. We extend the standard methodology for estimating asset indices using principal component analysis in two ways: by introducing constraints that force the indices to have increasing value as the number of assets owned increases, and by estimating sparse indices with a few key assets. This is achieved by combining categorical and sparse principal component analysis. We also apply this methodology to the estimation of per capita level asset indices. Using household survey data from northwest Vietnam and northeast Laos, we show that the resulting asset indices improve the prediction and ranking of income both at household and per capita level.