Netweaving alternative futures: Information technocracy or communicative community?

The metaphor of networking is widely used to describe how the emerging communications and information technologies are supposedly overcoming the tyranny of distance. In this case it has positive overtones, as if the barriers are coming down for a more open exchange among different people separated by distance and culture, making for some kind of better world, but is such technological optimism justified? Also, is it deliberate promotion on the part of eager technocrats whose vested interests have been favoured often ahead of a concern for the human condition? Here, an alternative metaphor, netweaving, is used in order to examine the apparent tensions and paradoxes surrounding the introduction of new communications and information technologies. Especially it will investigate the complex associations between apparently opposing dimensions within three layers of the social fabric: globalisation/localisation; centralisation/decentralisation; and standardisation/diversification. A futures studies assessment is used to anticipate alternative scenarios for the impact on the social fabric by the emerging technologies a generation from now, in 2020.     

数据大集中:信息时代商业银行的必由之路

~~数据大集中:信息时代商业银行的必由之路$中国农业银行青海省分行@黄国敬     

从非和谐到和谐——财产税法律体系的解构与重塑

财产税法因其固有的、为其他税法所不能替代的功能,是一国税法体系中不可或缺的重要组成部分。我国现行财产税法律体系过于滞后薄弱。对我国现行财产税法律体系进行全面、深入地解构表明:我国应在财政民主主义和财政联邦主义理念下重塑财产税法律体系,从非和谐走向和谐。     

关于后危机时代我国商业银行可持续发展策略的思考

银行业的可持续发展,就是在保持银行业与实体经济协调发展的前提下,自身资源配置不断趋于均衡合理、金融风险得到有效控制、金融生态环境持续优化、经济效益和竞争力不断增强的过程。文章从内外部环境分析了我国商业银行可持续发展的推动因素,并从顺应结构调整要求完善信贷业务经营模式,健全资本管理体制,强化全面风险管理机制以及坚持可持续金融创新战略等角度,提出＂十二五＂时期商业银行可持续发展策略建议。     

Operating and synthetic leases: Exploiting financial benefits in the post-Enron era

Applying constructive lease capitalization to operating leases of firms in the 2003 S&P 500 index, we demonstrate that currently companies can hide billions of liabilities, enhance retained earnings, income, and ratios by reporting leases as operating. With the rekindled interests of the International Accounting Standards Board and Financial Accounting Standards Board on lease reporting, our study provides valuable and timely information for their decisions.Results indicate that by reporting operating leases, firms avoided on average $582 million of liabilities (11% of total liabilities) and $450 million of assets (4% of total assets) for our 366 sample firms. Partitioning sample into negative and positive income impact subgroups provides additional insight into firm's motivation for using operating leases. Under lease capitalization the top quartile positive subgroup experienced an 18% increase in income while the top quartile negative subgroup had an 11% decline in income. There was also a significant negative impact on liquidity, leverage and performance ratios.     

试论会计信息的真实性

会计信息的真实性是会计的本质属性,但在现实生活中,会计信息失真现象仍层出不穷。本文试图从财务报告体系、会计规范体系、会计人员及利益动机等方面探究原因。并提出相应对策。     

Parallels between US and UK cost accountancy in the World War I era

Both the US and UK governments attempted desperate measures during World War I in an effort to maintain wartime production levels of necessary commodities and to allow for their economical purchase by the military. Loft (1986a, 1986b, 1990) has studied the British experience in depth, concluding that UK cost accountancy 'came into the light' as a result. It might be expected that similar developments would have occurred in America with the activities of the War Industries Board. In both countries, national associations were established in the immediate aftermath of the war to promote the professional standing of cost accountants. This paper utilizes archival materials in an effort to investigate whether US cost accountancy was developing more sophisticated costing techniques as Loft has claimed for the UK, or whether practitioners in this country were left 'still cursing the darkness'. Our findings suggest that cost accountancy developed in parallel fashion in both countries. US and UK cost accounting professionalism was dominated by the presence of leading financial accounting practitioners, and in both countries the movement towards more sophisticated costing techniques was gradual rather than dramatic.     

Evaluating the information content of earnings forecasts

This study develops a framework to compare the ability of alternative earnings forecast approaches to capture the market expectation of future earnings. Given prior evidence of analysts’ systematic optimistic bias, we decompose earnings surprises into analysts’ earnings surprises and adjustments based on alternative forecasting models. An equal market response to these two components indicates that the associated earnings forecast is a sufficient estimate of the market expectation of future earnings. To apply our framework, we examine four recent regression-based earnings forecasting models, alongside a simple earnings-based random walk model and analysts’ forecasts. Using the earnings forecasts of the model that satisfies our sufficiency condition, we identify a set of stocks for which the market is unduly pessimistic about future earnings. The investment strategy of buying and holding these stocks generates statistically signi?cant abnormal returns. We offer an explanation as to why this and similar strategies might be successful.     

吉林省农业产业化发展条件的实证分析

吉林省各县(市)经济发展的非均衡性存在着进一步加剧的趋势。运用模糊神经网络方法对各县(市)的农业产业化发展条件进行综合评价,能够比较客观地反映各地区农业产业化的发展现状,并在此基础上区分不同类型的区域。吉林省产业化的发展和布局应按照各区域的不同条件采取“有重点,有选择、有层次”的倾斜发展的战略。     

On the information role of stock recommendation revisions

We examine the information transmission role of stock recommendation revisions by sell-side security analysts. Revisions are associated with economically insignificant mean price reactions and often piggyback on recent news, events, long-term momentum, and short-run contrarian return predictors, typically downgrading after bad news and upgrading after good news. However, the revisions are usually information-free for investors. The findings go against the long-standing view that recommendations are an important means by which analysts assimilate information into stock prices. They disagree with the view of policymakers that analysts’ stock picks materially impact stock prices.     

Improving public services by sharing the right information

This article looks at the role that information sharing plays in supporting new models of public service delivery. It sets out the barriers to information sharing, attempts to overcome them and considers some of the factors involved in shaping a new direction for information sharing, such as changing public expectations and the rapidly changing regulatory environment.     

Isolating the effect of disclosure on information risk

This study examines companies with two classes of shares that entitle their holders to identical cash flow and voting rights but that are available to mutually exclusive sets of investors: A shares to domestic investors and B shares to foreign investors. Price differences between A and B shares are higher in firms with a greater disparity in the disclosures that they make to domestic and foreign investors. This association is more pronounced when the cost (benefit) of information transfer is higher (lower). The results suggest that disclosure disparity creates meaningful differences in investors' average information precision across A and B shares and thus influences the cross-sectional variation in price differences.     

Dynamics of analysts' coverage and the firms' information environment

The main goal of this paper is to study analysts' coverage of stocks. Through a series of ordered probit regressions the paper studies the relationship between changes in coverage and the information environment of a firm.Coverage decreases on average with higher errors in estimation. The data also shows that coverage is less likely to decrease for physically large firms, but more likely to decrease for firms with high lagged market value. Higher past revisions to the predictions also decrease coverage, showing a real cost of uncertainty.     

On the sources of private information in FX markets

We investigate the source of information advantage in inter-dealer FX trading using data on trades and counter-party identities. In liquid dollar exchange rates, information is concentrated among dealers that trade most frequently and specialize their activity in a particular rate. In cross-rates, traders that engage in triangular arbitrage are best informed. Better-informed traders are also located on larger trading floors. In cross-rates, the ability to forecast flows explains all of the advantage of the triangular arbitrageurs. In liquid dollar rates, specialist traders can forecast both order-flow and the component of exchange rate changes that is uncorrelated with flow.     

Multivariate decision accuracy and the presentation of accounting information

Since multivariate graphics provide spatial integration, summarization and comparison of information, they may provide the means for improving decision-making. This study tests for the incremental benefit of multivariate graphics over a tabular format, by comparing the outcomes for tabular–graphical combination formats with tabular-only formats in an experimental environment. This is an area where research has been sparse and where existing results are inconsistent.The study examines the interactive influence of presentation format and information complexity on multivariate decision accuracy, to determine the most effective presentation format for the performance of multivariate decision tasks of varying complexity. Results show a significant interaction between presentation format and information complexity to affect multivariate decision accuracy. When information complexity is low, presentation format has no impact on accuracy. However, when information complexity is high, the tabular-alone format shows the highest accuracy. The advantages of graphical and pictorial formats reported in earlier studies are not supported, a finding which has significant implications for the manner of disclosure of financial statements through graphical means.     

Comovement,information production,and the business cycle

Recent theoretical research suggests that information production is a positive externality of aggregate economic activity (Veldkamp, 2005). Both the quantity and quality of information increase during periods of economic expansion and decrease during periods of contraction. Based on this insight, we hypothesize and confirm that time-varying information production drives the comovement patterns observed in stock returns. We examine stock return comovement in 36 countries from 1980 to 2007 and show that, consistent with the theory, comovement patterns are countercyclical; that is, when information production is high (low), comovement is low (high). We also find that the relation between comovement and the business cycle is stronger in countries that experience large intertemporal swings in information production. Finally, we show that the relation between business cycle and comovement is stronger in poor countries, countries with less developed financial markets, and countries with weaker accounting and transparency standards. These results suggest that financial development and transparency are conducive to a steady flow of financial information over the business cycle.     

On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market

Summary. Experiments were conducted on an asset with the structure of an option. The information of any individual is limited, as if only the direction of movement of the option value known for a single period without information of the value from when movement was initiated. However, if all information of all insiders were pooled, the value of the option would be known with certainty. The results are the following: (1) Information becomes aggregated in the prices as if fully informative rational expectations operated; and (2) The mechanism through which information gets into the market is captured by a path dependent process that we term The Fundamental Coordination Principle of Information Transfer in Competitive Markets. The early contracts tend to be initiated by insiders who tender limit orders. The emergence of bubbles and mirages in the markets are coincident with failures and circumstances that prevent the operation of the Fundamental Principle.The financial support of the national science foundation and the Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science are gratefully acknowledged. The authors have benefited from helpful comments of David Grether, Kerry Back, Ivana Komunjer and Pete Kyle.