GENERALIZATION OF THE DYBVIG–INGERSOLL–ROSS THEOREM AND ASYMPTOTIC MINIMALITY

The long‐term limit of zero‐coupon rates with respect to the maturity does not always exist. In this case we use the limit superior and prove corresponding versions of the Dybvig–Ingersoll–Ross theorem, which says that long‐term spot and forward rates can never fall in an arbitrage‐free model. Extensions of popular interest rate models needing this generalization are presented. In addition, we discuss several definitions of arbitrage, prove asymptotic minimality of the limit superior of the spot rates, and illustrate our results by several continuous‐time short‐rate models.     

我国银行间同业拆借利率期限结构的影响因素分析

本文利用Nelson-Siegel模型,通过实证分析发现:存贷差、狭义货币供应量和保费收入对利率水平有负效应,而工业增加值、企业商品价格指数和上证指数对利率水平有正效应;工业增加值与企业商品价格指数的增加会使利率曲线斜率下降,而狭义货币供应量与保费收入的增加则会使斜率上升。这对预测利率曲线的变化,从而规避由于利率曲线的非平行移动所产生的利率风险有重要的参考意义。     

DOMAIN RESTRICTIONS ON INTEREST RATES IMPLIED BY NO ARBITRAGE

This paper derives domain restrictions on interest rates implied by no‐arbitrage. These restrictions are important for the study of arbitrage opportunities on bond markets, for regulation of these markets, and for econometric modelling.     

ON THE DYBVIG‐INGERSOLL‐ROSS THEOREM

The Dybvig‐Ingersoll‐Ross (DIR) theorem states that, in arbitrage‐free term structure models, long‐term yields and forward rates can never fall. We present a refined version of the DIR theorem, where we identify the reciprocal of the maturity date as the maximal order that long‐term rates at earlier dates can dominate long‐term rates at later dates. The viability assumption imposed on the market model is weaker than those appearing previously in the literature.     

WHEN IS THE SHORT RATE MARKOVIAN?

We answer this question in the very general context of the n-factor Heath, Jarrow, and Morton model for the evolution of the term structure of interest rates, with nonrandom volatility. the answer is that a constraint is imposed on the behavior of the volatility structure. We explain the importance of this result for the design of efficient numerical algorithms for the valuation of options on the term structure.     

银行间债券市场收益率曲线税收效应实证研究

文章利用品种相对较多、交易相对较活跃的银行间债券市场中的无风险债券来构建收益率曲线.由于投资者面临不同的税收待遇,税收因素是否显著影响投资者对债券的定价与市场收益率曲线的形状是个重要的研究课题.通过实证比较分析,发现我国银行间债券市场收益率曲线存在税收效应.也就是说,考虑了税收影响的Svensson模型具有更好的拟合能力.     

A Note on the Stability of Lognormal Interest Rate Models and the Pricing of Eurodollar Futures

The lognormal distribution assumption for the term structure of interest is the most natural way to exclude negative spot and forward rates. However, imposing this assumption on the continuously compounded interest rate has a serious drawback: rates explode and expected rollover returns are infinite even if the rollover period is arbitrarily short. As a consequence, such models cannot price one of the most widely used hedging instruments on the Euromoney market, namely the Eurodollar futures contract.
The purpose of this note is to show that the problems with lognormal models result from modeling the wrong rate, namely the continuously compounded rate. If instead one models the effective annual rate these problems disappear.     

汇率波动对机电行业就业影响的分析

本文利用2001-2010年我国机电行业的203家上市公司的面板数据以及2000-2010年我国机电行业各子行业的季度数据,分别从微观层面和行业层面实证研究汇率变动对我国机电行业就业的影响。研究发现,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电行业就业的负面影响的短期效应明显低于长期效应,且具有明显滞后性,表明更富弹性的汇率制度有利于缓解汇率波动对就业的影响。同时机电企业规模经济的发展、产品附加值的提升对就业有显著支撑作用,因此在人民币汇率日益走高的背景下,机电行业更应加速行业资源整合和产业升级。     

家族企业内部传承进程对贷款期限结构的影响研究

从家族接班人的职位视角,按照家族内部传承的进程,可以把家族内部传承区分为三个阶段：传承前期,传承中期和传承后期。文章基于我国2007-2011年上市家族企业的数据,分析了家族内部传承进程对贷款期限结构的影响。研究结果表明：（1）家族内部传承进程与长期借款比率呈倒“U”型关系。（2）在传承前期,家族内部传承可以促进企业获得长期借款,此结论支持了家族声誉理论。相对于家族间接控制来说,家族直接控制会强化家族内部传承的促进作用。（3）在传承中期,家族内部传承与长期借款比率的关系不显著。（4）在传承后期,家族内部传承会阻碍企业获得长期借款,此结论支持了资产专有理论。与第一代家族成员同时担任董事长和总经理相比,第二代家族成员同时担任董事长和总经理对长期借款比率的负面效应更大。     

Seasonal variations in injury rates in children: evidence from a 10-year study in the Veneto Region,Italy

The objective of this study was to investigate the long term trend of pediatric injuries in Veneto Region (North-East of Italy) over 10 years, evaluating if seasonality in injury hospitalisations exists. Regional data on hospital admissions during the period 2000–2009 were analysed. Injury was defined as any condition identified by the International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes 800–999, excluding late effects from injury (ICD-9-CM codes 905–909), and complications of surgical and medical care, not classified elsewhere (ICD-9-CM code 995-999) in the first diagnostic field. Cyclic trends in seasonality of injuries were tested with Nam test. Thirty-five thousand seven hundred and fifty-one hospitalisations due to an injury have been recorded. Significant seasonal variation in hospitalisations for injuries was observed, with a summer to winter ratio ranging from 1.8 for minor injuries to 2.0 for severe injuries (p <0.001). The observed pattern of increased admission in the summer months should guide resource planning and implementation of preventive strategies.     

利率期限结构:理论、模型和实证

本文简要阐述了利率期限结构理论,并分析比较了均衡模型与无套利机会模型、单因子模型和多因子模型的主要特征,最后,利用银行间国债市场1周、2周和4周国债回购利率进行回归得到三个瓦西塞克随机利率期限结构模型,指出了完善中国国债市场的思路。     

Expected Future Budget Deficits and the Yield Curve

Because of important demographic forces pertaining to impending social security and Medicare entitlement expenditures, very large budget deficits will occur in the next two decades barring significant federal legislation pertaining to these entitlements and/or taxes. The recent flatness in the yield curve notwithstanding, in this paper, we provide evidence that each one percentage point increase in the expected future deficit/GDP ratio increases the spread between ten-year Treasury bond yields and 90-day Treasury bills by 20-50 basis points. Larger expected deficits raise long-term rates more than short-term yield. To avoid crowding out of investment expenditures and the associated adverse effect on future living standards, it is imperative that Congress soon address the problem of looming deficits. JEL Classification E43,H6     

金融危机冲击下的中国国债利率期限结构分析

美国次贷危机不仅影响到整个美国经济,而且波及全球,导致全球金融危机。文章在阐述国债利率期限结构理论和国内外相关研究文献基础上,采用幂函数这一非线性回归模型对次贷危机时期我国国债收益率曲线的形状进行了静态拟合实证分析以及多个时点国债收益率曲线的动态分析。结果表明,我国国债市场已经逐渐走向成熟,能够较好地反映我国实际的经济运行状况以及世界金融市场受到的冲击,基本符合市场预期理论和流动性偏好理论。     

The Labor Market and Long-term Health Care: A Perspective on Nursing Aides

The aging of the baby boom generation underlies anticipated rapid growth in jobs for nurses and support personnel for longer-term care. Research on help-wanted advertising shows strong recruiting activity for nurses. However, for nursing aides and related positions, there is substantially less intensity, although there are regional differences. This overall finding conflicts with demand-based expectations and may imply a market that will not adequately fulfill projected needs.JEL Classification J240, I120