Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment

This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs – on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods – and taxes – on consumption, labor income and capital income – affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberalization programs financed by consumption and labor income taxes tend to result in substantial welfare gains, but financing the lost tariff revenue through capital income taxes can have an adverse impact on welfare. Second, a significant fraction of welfare changes is due to transitional effects stemming from the allocation of resources in response to changes in tariffs and taxes. Third, trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs often translate into much larger welfare gains in countries that are more open to international financial markets.     

Establishment heterogeneity,exporter dynamics,and the effects of trade liberalization

We study the effects of tariffs and iceberg trade costs in a two-sector dynamic variation of the Melitz (2003) model extended to include a sunk cost of exporting, establishment-level uncertainty in productivity, capital accumulation, and material usage. We calibrate the model to match both cross-sectional and dynamic aspects of US producers related to export participation and the establishment lifecycle. We find a tariff equivalent of fixed export costs of 30 percentage points. We also find that a sizeable share of export profits is a return to the organizational capital from investing in export capacity rather than creating an establishment. We use the model to estimate the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. We find that eliminating an 8 percent tariff increases the ratio of trade to GDP from 3.9% to 7.4% and raises welfare by 1.02%. Along the transition, consumption overshoots its steady state, even as trade and the capital stock grow gradually, so that the change in steady state consumption understates the welfare gain. Models without a dynamic export decision generate more gradual aggregate transition dynamics and smaller gains from trade. Capital accumulation and material usage are important sources of the welfare gains to trade.     

Establishment heterogeneity,exporter dynamics,and the effects of trade liberalization

We study the effects of tariffs and iceberg trade costs in a two-sector dynamic variation of the Melitz (2003) model extended to include a sunk cost of exporting, establishment-level uncertainty in productivity, capital accumulation, and material usage. We calibrate the model to match both cross-sectional and dynamic aspects of US producers related to export participation and the establishment lifecycle. We find a tariff equivalent of fixed export costs of 30 percentage points. We also find that a sizeable share of export profits is a return to the organizational capital from investing in export capacity rather than creating an establishment. We use the model to estimate the effect of reducing tariffs on welfare, trade, and export participation. We find that eliminating an 8 percent tariff increases the ratio of trade to GDP from 3.9% to 7.4% and raises welfare by 1.02%. Along the transition, consumption overshoots its steady state, even as trade and the capital stock grow gradually, so that the change in steady state consumption understates the welfare gain. Models without a dynamic export decision generate more gradual aggregate transition dynamics and smaller gains from trade. Capital accumulation and material usage are important sources of the welfare gains to trade.     

Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms

We present an empirical implementation of a general-equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous manufacturing firms. The theory underlying our model is consistent with Melitz (2003). A nonlinear structural estimation procedure identifies a set of core parameters and unobserved firm-level trade frictions that best fit the geographic pattern of trade. Our estimation model is consistent with the specified general equilibrium model, and we conduct general equilibrium counterfactual analyses to illustrate model responses. We first assess the economic effects of reductions in measured tariffs. Taking the simple-average welfare change across regions the Melitz structure indicates welfare gains from liberalization that are four times larger than in a standard trade policy simulation. Furthermore, when we compare the economic impact of tariff reductions with reductions in estimated fixed trade costs we find that policy measures affecting the fixed costs are of greater importance than tariff barriers.     

Commercial policy and dynamic adjustment under monopolistic competition

We explore liberalization of trade in differentiated commodities using a model featuring monopolistic competition and capital accumulation. We identify a mechanism of ‘cumulative causation’ in investment and an associated externality leading to under-accumulation. We provide long-run analytical results for a stylized core model and offer a quantitative treatment of transitional and sectoral issues using a disaggregate computational model. The aggregate welfare gains from unilateral liberalization are about three times larger than in the competitive case with constant returns, and they exhibit a characteristic pattern of generational incidence. Small export subsidies may be self-financing.     

Productivity, terms of trade and the ‘home market effect’

This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade (changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods) and the extensive margin (creation and destruction of varieties). We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation. Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. Output growth driven by demographic expansions, as well as government spending, is associated with an improvement in international relative prices and firms' entry. While trade liberalization may result in a smaller array of goods available to consumers, efficiency gains from deeper economic integration benefit consumers via lower goods prices. The international transmission mechanism and the welfare spillovers vary under different asset market structures, depending on trade costs, the elasticity of labor supply, and consumers' taste for varieties.     

Efficiency,equity, and environmental implications of trade liberalization: A computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper evaluates the effect of trade liberalization on global efficiency, equity, and the environment using global welfare, welfare redistribution, and carbon emission as indicators. A static, computable general equilibrium trade model with explicit representation of agricultural production and energy use is used to simulate a series of new scenarios in which 1997 baseline import tax and export subsidy trade barrier equivalents are scaled back. Findings indicate that with trade liberalization agricultural output declines, energy use increases, and carbon emissions rise. Global welfare rises revealing an overall increase in efficiency; however, gains to poorer nations come at the expense of richer nations. An increase in the use of polluting inputs such as coal in developing countries suggests poorer nations will risk environmental degradation with the lowering of trade barriers.     

Welfare effects on the United States of a significant multilateral tariff reduction

This paper summarizes an estimate of the impact of a 50 percent multilateral tariff reduction on U.S. trade, employment, capital utilization, and economic welfare. In addition to calculating conventional measures of consumer surplus and revenue effects, the paper quantifies the economic adjustment costs faced by labor and capital-owners who are displaced by trade liberalization. Account is taken of both direct and indirect effects through utilization of the 367- sector U.S. input-output table. Some of the more interesting and important welfare dislocation estimates are highlighted on an industry-by-industry basis. In the aggregate, the calculated gains from trade liberalization dwarf the measured adjustment costs by a ratio of almost 20 to 1.     

Trade liberalization and the allocation of labor between households and markets in a poor country

We consider the relationship between relative price changes and the allocation of labor between households and the formal wage labor market in the context of Vietnam's liberalization of its rice trade in the 1990s. Many individuals in poor economies work within their own household rather than in formal labor markets. We find that larger rice price increases in a community are associated with declines in hours adults devote to work within the household and increases in time spent in the wage labor market. We also observe increased specialization in household economic activities accompanying these shifts in hours towards wage work. Our results are consistent with the idea that a growth in the extent of the market shifts production and labor from households to markets during development, thereby inducing gains from specialization. Thus, the reallocation of labor between households and markets in response to a trade liberalization might be an important component in understanding the link between trade and growth in very poor economies, currently the focus of the Doha WTO negotiation round.     

General equilibrium trade modelling with Canada–US transportation costs

Transportation costs are an important topic in international trade, but seldom have researchers paid attention to general equilibrium trade modelling with transportation costs and explored their relevant effects. This paper uses numerical general equilibrium trade model structures to simulate the impacts of transportation costs on welfare and trade for a Canada–US country pair case. We compare two groups of model structures: Armington assumption models and homogeneous goods models. Within these two groups of models, we also compare balanced trade structures to trade imbalance structures and production function transportation costs to iceberg transportation costs. Armington goods models generate more absolute welfare gains from transportation cost elimination than homogeneous goods models. Welfare gains under balanced trade structures are larger in production function transportation cost scenarios than in iceberg transportation cost scenarios, but under trade imbalance structures, welfare gains are greater under iceberg transportation cost scenarios. Canada's welfare gains in the iceberg transportation cost scenario are significantly larger than gains in the production function transportation cost scenario. On trade effects, homogeneous goods models generate more export and import gains, balanced trade structures have more trade variations, and iceberg transportation costs generate more trade effects.     

Product quality,firm heterogeneity and trade liberalization

This paper develops a framework for studying the general equilibrium effects of endogenous quality upgrading, a new margin of trade, on the welfare impact of trade liberalization. The theoretical model introduces product quality differentiation amongst heterogeneous firms and focuses on supply-side determinants of international trade. Among other results, in general equilibrium, trade liberalization decreases the share of high-quality varieties in exports and the average productivity of exporters. These changes affect average export price in opposite ways. Nevertheless, trade liberalization in the quality-extended model increases consumers’ welfare by more than in the benchmark model.     

An extension of Bale's labor displacement cost estimates

Bale (1976) failed to extend his labor displacement cost estimates to the more interesting question of whether these costs outweigh gains from trade liberalization. This note addresses that question by applying Bale's estimates to Magee's (1972) study of the welfare effects of U.S. trade restrictions. Our results indicate that gains far outweigh costs of tariff removal on imports directly competing with U.S. production.     

Trade Growth in a Heterogeneous Firm Model: Evidence from South Eastern Europe

In 2007 a free trade area (BFTA) will be created in the Balkans. In this paper we study BFTA‐induced trade growth in the SEE. Given that welfare impacts associated with trade growth depend on the growth channels, more goods and varieties exported or at higher price or more volume of exported goods and varieties, we study the structure of integration‐induced export growth in the Balkans. Given that no firm‐level trade data is available for the Balkans, we adopt the heterogeneous firm framework, which allows to decompose aggregate trade growth into intensive margin of trade and extensive margin of trade using only aggregate trade data. Our empirical findings predict that the BFTA would primarily increase the export volume through a growing number of shipments (the extensive margin of trade) suggesting that the actual welfare gains from the trade growth in the Balkans might in fact be larger than predicted in previous trade studies. We also found that reducing variable trade costs leads to higher export growth rates compared to reducing fixed trade costs by the same percentage.     

贸易结构、分工经济与区域服务贸易自由化的福利效应

由于区域内经济体出口相似指数过高,在发展区域服务贸易自由化的过程中会出现竞争,不同区域成员贸易结构和专业化分工特点也影响区域服务贸易自由化的发展。文章以亚洲经济体区域服务贸易自由化发展为例,采用面板数据的因果关系模型,定量分析贸易结构、分工经济与区域服务贸易自由化的福利效应三者之间的关系。研究得出,无论是从长期还是短期来看,服务贸易的互补性和服务贸易的专业化分工都是服务贸易出口额增长的格兰杰原因。     

Privatisation and the unusual case of Belarusian accession to the WTO

The accession negotiations of Belarus to the WTO are unusual since, due to its obligations in the Eurasian Economic Union, WTO accession is not expected to impact its tariffs or formerly substantial trade‐distorting agricultural subsidies. Nonetheless, we estimate that WTO accession will increase welfare by 9.9% of consumption in Belarus. We show that inclusion of: (i) foreign direct investment; (ii) reduction in non‐discriminatory barriers against services providers; and (iii) our model with imperfect competition and endogenous productivity effects together produce estimated gains eleven times larger than a model of perfect competition with only cross‐border trade in services. Our analysis is enabled by our production of a data set on both discriminatory and non‐discriminatory barriers in services and their ad valorem equivalents. Based on a new data set on labour productivity by sector and type of ownership, in our central model, we estimate that privatisation will increase welfare by 35.8% of consumption. We find substantial variance in the estimated gains from privatisation depending on model assumptions, but all the estimates of the impacts of privatisation indicate substantial welfare gains.     

Welfare and trade elasticity with multinational production

We explore welfare properties in a firm heterogeneity model with multinational production and export. The presence of multinational production plays a crucial role in delivering a partial trade elasticity of total sales by exporters and affiliates that is no longer constant, and depends on both supply and demand parameters. We then analyse counterfactual scenarios. Multinational production with intra-firm trade increases welfare gains by up to 4% with respect to a model with only export and no truncation. Multinational production à la Helpman et al. (American Economic Review, 2004, 94 , 300) generates the largest welfare gains from liberalisation.     

Gains from trade in used goods: Evidence from automobiles

I investigate the welfare effects of trade liberalization by exploiting a natural policy experiment in the economy of Cyprus. A 1993 law relaxed import restrictions on used vehicles and enabled the importation of second-hand Japanese automobiles into the country. This led to a dramatic shift of consumer purchases from new to used cars and a substantial expansion of the overall market. Welfare gains computed from a structural demand system average $2000 per purchaser per year over a four-year period after the policy change. The findings are suggestive of the potential for substantial gains from liberalizing trade in used goods.     

Gains from trade in used goods: Evidence from automobiles

I investigate the welfare effects of trade liberalization by exploiting a natural policy experiment in the economy of Cyprus. A 1993 law relaxed import restrictions on used vehicles and enabled the importation of second-hand Japanese automobiles into the country. This led to a dramatic shift of consumer purchases from new to used cars and a substantial expansion of the overall market. Welfare gains computed from a structural demand system average $2000 per purchaser per year over a four-year period after the policy change. The findings are suggestive of the potential for substantial gains from liberalizing trade in used goods.     

Endogenous tariffs and trade adjustment assistance

This paper examines whether trade adjustment assistance is an effective tool for blunting political opposition to trade liberalization. The traditional argument is that adjustment assistance bribes labor unions so that they will accept reduced tariff protection. In this way, a trade adjustment assistance program should help the government lower tariffs and increase social welfare. This paper introduces trade adjustment assistance into a political economy model of endogenous tariff formation. The model shows that adjustment assistance reduces policy makers’ incentives to press for trade liberalization and may slow down the pace of reform and lower social welfare under certain plausible conditions.     

Customs union theory and the nonuniformity of tariffs

Allowance is made for the initial nonuniformity of the tariffs of a union country before it joins a customs union. The reduction of such nonuniformity is a possible source of welfare again distinct from the usual trade creation and trade diversion effects. A net welfare gain from a union may result even when the country's total trade stays unchanged and even when all trade with the outsider ceases. A three-product, small-country model is used, domestic production and consumption substitution between the two importables yielding the import pattern effect that produces the possible gains referred to.