Demographic and medical characteristics of working-age population in Russia

The medical and demographic characteristics of the working-age population are considered. The mortality dynamics is analyzed, as well as interval average life expectancy, disability, and morbidity of the working-age population.     

Socio‐economic characteristics of the rural population in Gcumisa ward,KwaZulu

The purpose of this paper is to present information gathered in a multi‐stage sample survey of 193 rural homesteads in the Gcumisa ward of KwaZulu. The survey area was stratified into two regions of different agricultural potential. Estimates of human population, off‐farm employment, crop production expenditure, land utilization and homestead income are projected for the strata Sample observations relating to occupations, wages and cash remittances are also presented. Conclusions drawn relate primarily to the effects of yield expectations, farm size and off‐farm employment opportunities on crop production.     

Demographic destiny, per-capita consumption and the Japanese saving-investment balance

In this paper, we revisit the issue of the impact of demographicchange on the Japanese saving investment balance. Using updatedgovernment projections, we show that the ageing of the populationunder way will steadily lower Japan's saving rate from 31 percent of GDP today to 20 per cent of GDP in 2040. Japan's investmentrate will remain close to its current level of 29 per cent.Thus, Japan's saving investment balance, or current account,will steadily decrease from its current level and will turnnegative in 2025. In addition, we project the impact of demographicchange on the evolution of Japanese consumption per capita,or 'living standards'. Despite the population ageing, we projectthat per-capita consumption will grow until 2010. However, undercertain scenarios, consumption per capita falls in most yearsafter 2010.     

Demographic development of Russia in the first quarter of the 21st century and tasks of strengthening the social support of the population

This paper gives an analytical review of the materials presented at the All-Russian Scientific-Practical Conference “The Demographic Development of Russia: Tasks of the Demographic Policy and Strengthening the Social Support of the Population,” which was held on April 19–20, 2011. The reports and discussions at the conference were devoted to analyzing the results of the measures of the demographic policy in Russia in the 2006–2010 period and substantiating the principles for developing new measures of the demographic policy in the period until 2025.     

Demographic Change,International Trade and Capital Flows

Trade in goods that are not perfect substitutes can considerably change the predictions of standard neoclassical models about the effects of demographic developments. This paper considers a relative decrease in the population size of one country, when countries specialize in the production of different intermediate goods. The degree of substitutability is crucial for the direction of capital flows between the countries and for the development of wages. The less those goods are substitutes, the stronger the long-run international spillover effects of a demographic shock will be. For the interest rate effects, also international differences in saving rates due to e.g., different pension schemes have to be taken into account.     

Demographic determinants of the distribution of income

This paper explores both theoretically and empirically the effects of fertility, mortality, migration, household structure and other demographic factors on income distribution. A conceptual framework for income distribution analysis is developed and the direct and indirect effects of demographic factors on this framework assessed. Both partial and systems approaches to empirical analysis are explored. The conclusion is that relationship are complex and the net outcome of demographic changes on distribution cannot be fully understood outside a systems framework.     

Survival strategies of HIV/AIDS – affected households in Soweto

This article reports the survival strategies used by households in Soweto with at least one HIV/AIDS-affected member. Data were collected on four occasions between September 2002 and August 2003 from each household, based on diary records and supplemented by interviews with the financial head of the household. In terms of frequency of use and the contribution made to the finances of affected households, the most important survival strategies were: the sick member continuing at work for as long as possible, borrowing from friends and relatives, receiving transfers from relatives, and taking up social grants. These results are broadly similar to those reported by Booysen and associates in their Free State studies.     

Unemployment,marginalisation and survival in Greater East London

This article draws on selected findings of one of a series of surveys conducted by the authors in the Eastern Cape province, dealing broadly with labour market issues. Particular attention is accorded to levels of unemployment, the extent of migrancy, the operation of extended networks of support, and survival strategies. This is followed by a brief look at perceptions of crime, and the extent to which crime is seen as an effective survival mechanism by the most marginalised. It is concluded that economic reconstruction in the province should take account of certain prevailing realities, including the operation of extended networks of support and the relative lack of mobility of the most marginalised, the limited capacity of the informal sector to absorb further numbers of the structurally unemployed, and the relative propensity of the most marginalised to engage in crime as a survival strategy.     

Review of Dr S S Brand's report on the finances and economy of Soweto*

This article is a review of a report by Dr S S Brand of the Development Bank of Southern Africa on the economy and finances of Soweto. The major recommendations are summarized and briefly analysed in terms of four major demands of Soweto residents.     

Demographic change and income inequality in the United States, 1976-1989

"The U.S. economy experienced significant increases in the degree of income inequality over the past two decades.... In this paper we consider the effects of race, age, female headship, and college education on the distribution of family income by developing a multivariate methodology that allows us to gauge the influence of one factor while holding other determinants of family incomes constant. Over the period studied we find that race had only a minor effect on the overall size distribution of income. Age had a somewhat greater effect than race. In contrast, the impact of female heads and college education were quite substantial. The multivariate estimates reveal that the effects of female heads and college education both increase the Gini to a much greater extent than the progressivity of federal income taxes decreases it. The effects of college education and female headed families on inequality have grown larger across time, while the influence of age has declined. We find that the effects of race on inequality have changed little over the 1976 to 1989 period."     

人口结构、资本流动与全球经济失衡

本文将资本流动和全球经济失衡纳入同一研究框架,将人口结构提升为影响长期资本流动和全球经济失衡的最重要的因素之一进行探讨,采用面板协整检验、系统广义矩估计模型、混合最小二乘模型、固定效应模型、似无相关模型等实证方法,对一个基于全球126个国家形成的面板数据进行分析和研究。本文发现,老年抚养比和少年抚养比对于经常账户有显著负向影响,实证结果支持了人口结构是长期资本流动和全球经济失衡的重要影响因素这一理论。     

劳动力有限供给、人口转变与中国经济增长可持续性

本文从结构转化视角分析"刘易斯拐点"和人口转变对于中国经济增长可持续性的影响.通过对跨国面板数据分析,结果表明:劳动力比率对资本形成率产生显著的正向影响,劳动力与资本的有效结合是人口红利得以发挥和经济持续增长的重要条件;总抚养比提高不利于资本积累,将对经济增长产生不利影响.中国经验数据分析显示:经济结构转化,劳动力跨部门转移,是中国经济得以长期、高速增长的关键,高投资率是该增长模式的必然结果;"刘易斯拐点"即将到来,农村剩余劳动力逐渐消失,人口年龄结构变化将使新增劳动力明显减少;如果继续保持较高的资本形成率,资本进一步深化,将使资本边际报酬率快速递减,现有的高投资增长模式难以维持,中国经济将逐步进入低速增长阶段.     

Economic Co-operation in the Greater Mekong Subregion

This paper reviews the available literature on economic co-operation among the six riparian countries of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) in terms of trade, foreign direct investment and tourism. Since, among the participating countries, Laos and Myanmar are new members of ASEAN, Cambodia is to become a member and Thailand and Vietnam are already members, economic co-operation with the other members of ASEAN is also relevant. The final section of the paper comments on the future prospects, problems, and challenges.     

我国人口状况变化及政策应对

一个国家人口政策制定的好坏对其经济和社会发展有着极其重要的影响。特别是在当今中国这个快速发展中的国家,其人口政策的制定更应该引起政府的高度重视。本文试从婚育年龄、就业、老龄化、教育和人口流动等几个方面入手,着重分析其近年变化对政府制定人口政策的影响。     

充分利用“人口红利期”

中国已于1999年提早进入老龄化社会,如何应对人口老龄化问题,是当前和今后公共政策要面对的核心问题之一。令人欣慰的是,中国养老保障体系正在逐步健全,老龄事业已经取得阶段性成果。其主要标志是：养老保障体系逐步建立健全,特别是新型农村社会养老保险开始试点;