FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia—Panel data versus time-series causality analyses

Using time-series and panel data from 1986 to 2004, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand, the eight rapidly developing East and Southeast Asian economies. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the eight economies. We found each country has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the eight economies as a group and then use the fixed effects and random effects approaches to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through exports, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Our results indicate that the panel data causality analysis has superior results over the time-series causality analysis. Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions.     

地区差距、产业聚集与经济增长:理论及来自广东省的证据

中国经济的高速增长和地区差距的不断拉大已经成为不可回避的现实问题。从现有文献看,以新古典框架来解释地区差距及其原因是目前我国学者采用的主要理论和方法。本文以新经济地理学理论为主要框架,从产业聚集与扩散的变化来研究由此而导致的经济增长效率的不同和地区差距的变化;并以广东省为案例,运用具体指标和Granger因果检验技术,从经验上证实了核心区域的产业聚集对整个广东省经济增长的拉动效应要明显强于边缘区域,同时也导致了地区差距的扩大。     

Consumption, habit formation, and precautionary saving: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

In this paper, we generalise Weil's (1993) model, which is basedon hybrid non-expected utility preferences, by allowing forhabit formation. We use this generalised model to derive anEuler equation, where current consumption changes depend onlagged changes and labour income risk. We then estimate thisEuler equation using data from the British Household Panel Survey(BHPS) for the period 1992–97. Our results suggest thatboth labour income risk and past changes in consumption playan important role in determining current changes in consumption.We then compare the model with habits with the one without,and strongly reject the latter.     

Technology, wages, and skill shortages: evidence from UK micro data

Why have skill shortages continue to persist despite increasesin training and the skill levels of the workforce? We arguethat technical progress has raised the demand for skilled labourto match the observed increase in supply. We provide econometricevidence in support of this hypothesis, showing that skill shortagesare higher for establishments that use advanced technology inthe production process. We also provide econometric evidencethat hiring difficulties are inversely related to the relativewage, as theory would suggest. Our results have clear implicationsfor policy. If technological progress continues to be skillbiased, policies that address skills deficiencies will onlybe successful if they produce a continual, rather than a temporary,increase in levels of skills among the workforce.     

交通基础设施和人力资本结构高级化与区域技术创新——基于2008—2017年30个省份的面板数据

技术创新是引领经济高质量发展的新动能。基于2008—2017年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,实证检验交通基础设施对区域技术创新绩效的直接效应和人力资本结构高级化的间接效应。结果表明,交通基础设施对区域技术创新水平有明显的促进作用;人力资本结构高级化对区域技术创新的中介作用为负;交通基础设施的创新效应存在区域异质性。因此,在制定创新驱动战略的发展路径时,要保持交通基础设施投资在固定资产投资中的比重,因地制宜地制定差异化区域政策,促进高层级人力资本流入,既要关注高层级人力资本的比重,也要提高教育质量和教育水平,改善区域人力资本分布的不平衡现状。     

Granger causality between money,output, prices and interest rates: Some cross-country evidence from the period 1875–1984

Zusammenfassung Granger-Kausalit?t zwischen Geldmenge, Produktion, Preisen und Zinss?tzen: Evidenz aus einem L?ndervergleich für den Zeitraum 1875-1984. - In diesem Aufsatz wird die Granger-Kausalit?t zwischen Geldmenge, Produktion, Preisen und Nominalzinsen auf der Grundlage langer Zeitreihen für elf L?nder untersucht. Empirische Untersuchungen sowohl in der Zeit- als auch in der Frequenzdimension zeigen, da\ die Geldmenge nicht geeignet ist, die Entwicklung der Produktion vorherzusagen. Tats?chlich scheint nur in Kanada, Italien und Norwegen eine einseitige Kausalbeziehung von der Geldmenge zur realen Produktion zu bestehen. Ein ganz anderes Ergebnis zeigt sich bei der Beziehung zwischen Geldmenge und Preisen. Dort l?uft die Kausalkette typischerweise von der Geldmenge zu den Preisen.

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Résumé Causalité de Granger entre la monnaie, la production, les prix et les taux d’intérêt: Quelque évidence trans-pays dans la période 1875–1984. - Cet article étudie la causalité de Granger entre la monnaie, la production, les prix et les taux nominaux d’intérêt en utilisant des séries des longues périodes pour onze pays. L’analyse empirique, en domaine de temps aussi bien que de fréquence, suggère que la monnaie n’aide pas à prédire les mouvements en production. En fait, seulement dans les cas du Canada, de l’Italie et de la Norvège il semble exister une causalité unidirectionnelle de la monnaie vers la production réelle. Un résultat tout à fait différent est trouvé pour la monnaie et les prix. C’est pourquoi, les prix sont typiquement causés par la masse monétaire pendant la période d’analyse.

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Resumen Causalidad ?Granger? entre dinero, producción, precios y tasas de interés. Evidencia a nivel de países del período 1875–1984. - En este trabajo se estudia la causalidad tipo Granger entre dinero, producción, precios y tasas de interés nominales utilizando series de tiempo largas de 11 países. Los análisis empíricos, tanto en el dominio del tiempo como en el de la frecuencia, sugieren que el dinero no ayuda a predecir los movimientos del producto en el tiempo. En realidad, sólo en el caso de Canadá, Italia y Noruega pareciera existir una causación unidireccional del dinero hacia el producto real. El dinero y los precios llevan a un resultado bastante diferente. Por ello, la causación va del dinero hacia los precios durante del período de la muestra.

     

Openness,Regional Trade Agreements and Growth: Evidence from Asia*

This paper assesses the relationship between regional trade agreements, trade integration and economic growth in 21 South and South‐East Asian countries over the period from 1980 to 2004. We aim to answer the following questions. First, how does the trade policy of a given country (and countries within the same region) affect a nation's domestic growth? Second, should developing economies in South and South‐East Asia engage in regional trade agreements (RTA) or move towards broad liberalization? Our results show that openness of either a single country or of its neighbors does not affect a nation's growth and that the impacts of RTA are unclear (if not detrimental to growth in some cases, once endogeneity is accounted for). Panel Granger‐causality tests running from openness to growth yield mixed results and some conclusions depend on the particular subsample under scrutiny.     

Upstreamness,exports, and wage inequality: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing data

In this paper we investigate within-firm wage inequality across heterogeneous industries that hold different positions in the domestic value chain, and across heterogeneous firms that have different exposure to trade. We find that the wage inequality problem is more severe in upstream industries than in downstream ones, and among firms with greater exposure to trade (i.e., larger export share of sales). Our findings support both classic and new new trade theories on wage inequality. In downstream industries where Chinese firms are typically engaged in processing and assembly work with intensive use of unskilled labor, trade leads to less wage inequality within firms. However, trade also introduces pro-competitive effects which usually benefit exporters and their skilled labor. The results hold after various checks and controls for robustness.     

Exchange Rate Regime and Demand for Reserves: Evidence from Kenya,Mexico and Philippines

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.

Real wages,investment and employment: New evidence from West German sectoral data

Real Wages, Investment and Employment: New Evidence from West German Sectoral Data. — Non-separable capital adjustment costs imply that investment directly affects the demand for labour and therefore justify not only the lagged dependent variable but also the presence of investment expenditures or Tobin’s valuation ratio Q in labour demand estimation. On this basis, the authors estimate a very parsimonious specification of demand for blue-collar workers in a panel of 32 West German industries. They find much larger short-run real wage employment elasticities than previous research, and robustly significant positive effects of investment or Tobin’s Q on labour demand.     

Bank risk taking,efficiency, and law enforcement: Evidence from Chinese city commercial banks

We investigate bank risk taking, efficiency and their relation to law enforcement using a unique sample of 133 Chinese city commercial banks across 31 regions for the 1999–2008 period. We find that stronger law enforcement tends to promote greater bank risk taking in the region. Furthermore, employing a stochastic distance function approach, our analysis shows that the performance of Chinese city commercial banks, as measured by bank efficiency, is heavily influenced by the effectiveness of law enforcement in the region. Better legal environment, higher efficiency in the legal system, and stronger protection of intellectual property right are associated with a higher level of efficiency among these banks.     

金融发展、融资约束与中国本土企业出口绩效——基于省际面板数据的经验研究

通过纾缓融资约束提高企业出口能力是开放条件下金融发展影响一国(地区)经济增长的重要渠道之一。本文利用1999～2006年省际面板数据,构建衡量金融发展的综合指标体系,运用系统广义矩估计方法进行实证研究发现:我国金融发展有限地促进了本土企业的出口增长;尽管非国有本土企业和中小企业对出口贡献呈上升趋势,但难以从正规金融体系中获取充分的融资支持,国有银行寡头垄断的金融市场结构抑制了本土企业出口绩效的持续增进。本文得出的政策建议是进一步深化金融改革,为企业改善贸易竞争力提供合理有效的外部环境。     

市场潜能、人口密度与非农劳动生产率——来自中国地级面板数据的证据

本文基于样本期为1999—2004年的地级面板数据并运用动态面板数据的计量方法，对中国地级区域市场潜能、人口密度等经济地理因素与其非农业劳动生产率之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明，地级区域的市场潜能、人口密度等经济地理因素对其非农劳动生产率都存在显著为正的影响。而且，无论是从绝对弹性还是标准化弹性来看，地级区域市场潜能对其非农劳动生产率的影响都更大。     

Economic structural changes and rural income: Evidence from Chinese provinces during the reform period

During the reform period, the Chinese rural economy has experienced deep structural changes: cropping adjustment, agro-forestry adjustment and agro-industrial adjustment. At the same time, rural per capita income rose sharply despite some fluctuations. Using a panel data of 29 provinces from 1982 to 2001, effects of these structural changes upon both income level and income instability are assessed. The empirical results show that crop adjustment and agro-industrial adjustment can increase rural income and reduce income instability, while agro-forestry adjustment reduces both income and its instability, as a risk-management strategy.     

Cities, hinterlands and agglomeration shadows: Spatial developments in Finland during 1880–2004

This paper analyzes long-term spatial developments in Finland by focusing on two predictions of the new economic geography (NEG) models: the increasing persistence of locational patterns and the rising dominance of growth centers. The empirical analysis is based on regional population data from 1880 to 2004. The results support the hypotheses. Evolutions in rank and rank-size distributions during the processes of industrialization and urbanization suggest increasing persistence of regional structures. The analysis of causal processes between population centers and their hinterlands shows that these regions grew hand-in-hand in the pre-war period, whereas agglomeration shadows started to come about during the post-war period.     

银行业结构与经济增长——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

内容本文利用样本期为1987-2004年的省级面板数据对中国各省区银行业结构与经济增长的关系进行了计量分析。结果表明,中国各省区银行业结构对经济增长存在着显著为负的影响,这与一般均衡模型的理论预测相一致;中国各省区银行业结构与经济增长的关系表现出了明显的区域差异,即与东部区域相比,中西部区域银行集中度降低的益处更大,更能促进经济增长;在非国有化进程较快和市场化程度较高的省区,银行集中度的降低对经济增长的积极影响更为明显。在此基础上,本文提出了一些政策建议。     

财政压力、支出结构与公共服务质量--基于中国229个地级市面板数据的实证分析

提供优质高效的公共服务以满足辖区居民美好生活需要,是各级地方政府的重要职责之一。财税体制改革给地方政府带来的财政压力,会对其公共服务供给行为产生影响。在测度中国229个地级市公共服务质量与财政压力的基础上,构建系统GMM模型,实证分析地方财政压力对公共服务质量的影响。结果发现:地方财政压力对公共服务质量产生了非线性影响,当地方政府承压超过一定限度时,财政压力将显著降低辖区公共服务质量;实证结果因地区、城市规模不同而呈现异质性;不同种类公共服务间的质量差异,源于财政压力环境下地方政府调整财政支出结构的行为。为此,应将财政压力控制在适度范围内,优化财政支出结构,努力实现地区间公共服务质量相对均衡。     

Regional specialization and shocks in Europe: Some evidence from regional data

Regional Specialization and Shocks in Europe: Some Evidence from Regional Data. —The authors address the issue of the European Monetary Union (EMU), focusing on a comparison between EC countries and EC regions. They identify a number of homogeneous economic regions and show that in the period 1978–1989 asymmetric shocks in Europe have been regional rather than national. This derives from the fact that regional specialization in Europe is strongly diversified. They argue that cross-border regional diversification can cushion the net effects of differentiated sectoral shocks, reducing national instability. In addition, the costs of EMU associated with the loss of the exchange rate are likely to be smaller than usually thought.     

Heterogeneity in lending and sectoral growth: evidence from German bank-level data

This paper investigates whether heterogeneity across firms and banks matters for the impact of domestic sectoral growth on bank lending. We use several bank-level datasets provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank for the 1996–2002 period. Our results show that firm heterogeneity and bank heterogeneity affect how lending responds to domestic sectoral growth. We document that banks’ total lending to German firms reacts pro-cyclically to domestic sectoral growth, while lending exceeding a threshold of €1.5 million to German and foreign firms does not. Moreover, we document that the response of lending depends on bank characteristics such as the banking groups, the banks’ asset size, and the degree of sectoral specialization. We find that total domestic lending by savings banks and credit cooperatives (including their regional institutions), smaller banks, and banks that are highly specialized in specific sectors responds positively and, in relevant cases, more strongly to domestic sectoral growth.