中国省域建筑业发展差异的空间计量经济分析

基于2005年～2007年我国31个省（直辖市）建筑业的面板数据,利用空间经济计量方法对其进行了系统的分析,揭示了我国省域建筑业之间的强空间相关性和空间异质性,分析结果表明：为了更加深入地理解我国建筑业对经济增长的影响,必须强调地域空间因素的重要性,这样既有助于明确建筑业对经济增长的空间影响,同时也为国家协调区域经济发展、制定相应的区域发展政策提供相应理论依据。     

贸易开放与经济增长:基于政策协调效果的实证研究

本文采用我国30个省市的面板数据,实证研究了贸易开放是否与其他配套性政策形成有效协调,从而共同作用于我国的经济增长。第一类配套性政策指标包括人力资本、金融发展水平、物价稳定、基础设施建设与研发投入等5种宏观经济因素;第二类配套性指标包括政府与市场关系、产品市场发育度、要素市场发育度、法制环境等5种市场化进程指数。结果发现,物价稳定、市场化进程与我国贸易开放形成了较好的政策互补,同时人力资本、金融发展等其他指标并未与贸易开放形成有效结合。     

中国的反腐败：高薪养廉、加强执法还是制度反腐?

经济学理论中治理腐败常用的措施有三个：加强执法、提高公务人员工资和完善市场制度。相对于前两种措施,完善以限制政府对市场干预为核心的市场制度效果是更明显的。完善市场制度治理腐败有更少的副作用,是自我维持的、有较强持续性。用中国2001年至2010年各省份的面板数据证明了以上的理论推导,发现相对于工资和加强执法,市场制度变量的回归系数更显著,同时具有很强的稳健性。     

Understanding openness and productivity growth in China: An empirical study of the Chinese provinces

This paper investigates the effects of openness on China's regional productivity growth. We build a model of technology diffusion in which follower economies achieve productivity growth by taking advantage of technology spillovers from the world technology frontier. We hypothesize that China's regional productivity growth is a positive function of regional openness and a negative function of the current level of regional productivity. Empirical analysis in this paper focuses on how openness affects productivity growth in the Chinese provinces. We examine two effects of openness on regional productivity growth in China: the direct growth effect and the convergence effect. By using a variety of panel data regression techniques, we show that the direct growth effect of openness is the main effect while the convergence effect is insignificant. The findings of this paper lend strong support to the claim that the opening-up of China promotes the country's economic growth.     

全要素生产率、资本投入与西北五省经济增长——基于malmquist指数的经验研究

西北地区作为我国西部大开发的重要区域,国家21世纪能源基地,以及丝绸之路经济带连接中亚地区向西开放的重要区域,对我国经济发展具有重要作用。近年来,西北地区在国家政策扶持下,经济呈现出良好的发展趋势,但依然存在许多问题,表现在经济发展方式粗放。这不仅不利于西北地区可持续发展,也对其脆弱的生态环境构成了威胁,因此,转变经济发展方式,提高经济效率,成为必然的选择。本文在新古典和内生增长理论的框架内,通过DEA分析技术和Malmquist指数,对西北五省全要素生产率变动情况进行分析,并结合改造后的C-D生产函数,建立面板数据模型,对西北五省经济增长与全要素生产率、资本投入之间的关系进行计量分析,并在此基础上提出政策建议。     

东道国开放度对外商直接投资溢出效应的影响

本文首先对东道国对外开放程度对外商直接投资溢出效应影响的具体机制进行了阐述,然后在赵奇伟等(2007)所构建的理论模型的基础上进行经验分析。采用我国1997～2004年31个省市的面板数据的实证结果表明,相对于现有外资规模我国的对外开放程度滞后,是造成外商直接投资技术溢出效应为负的原因之一。文章最后针对提高对外开放程度以获取正向外商直接投资溢出效应提出了政策建议。     

An analysis on technical efficiency in post-reform China

This paper employs a fully nonparametric stochastic frontier model with time and individual effects to study technical efficiency in China's post-reform economy. The panel data cover China's thirty provinces for the period of 1985–2008. The empirical results show that the average output elasticity of labor is larger than the other two inputs of capital and human capital. Based on the specified inefficiency Tobit model, the factor analysis on technical efficiency shows that the time effects of technical efficiency in China's post-reform economy are significantly contingent on the factors. There exists significant regional differences in technical efficiency in China's economic development, and a number of policy implications can be drawn.     

澳门旅游高等教育合作办学机制研究

本研究结合澳门本土地缘特点、文化特点、产业特点、教育特点,对澳门旅游高等教育进行SWOT分析。研究发现澳门旅游高等教育与本澳高校之间,可利用本土地缘优势,实现本土高校之间图书资源共享、教材共建、研讨会交流学术成果等方式的合作;与外地高校之间,可通过电子文献资源共享,交换生与学分互认,短期游学或实习,师资拼盘共建课程体系等方式进行合作;与政府之间,可在政策、经费支持、学术团队支持等方面进行合作;与企业之间,可通过资源共享、优势互补等方面进行互惠合作。通过几种合作机制的探讨以期实现澳门旅游高等教育的跨越式发展。     

Is Financial Development Another Source of Comparative Advantage？ Evidence from China

Using panel data for 29 provinces in China during 1990-2004, the present paper attempts to explore a possible link between financial development and China＇s foreign trade. Three measures of comparative advantage in manufactured goods have been applied in our study, including Balassa＇s revealed comparative advantage, the net manufactured export index, and the Michaely index. We also use four indicators of financial development to identify the different functions of regional financial development, and to determine both size and efficiency features of financial institutions. The estimation results suggest that besides factor endowments, foreign firms and infrastructure, financial development has a quantitatively large and robust effect on China ＇ s manufactured goods trade. Therefore, further reform of China＇s financial system should be encouraged to fully exploit the comparative advantage of China＇s foreign trade.     

经济发展战略、交通通达程度与全要素生产率

普遍认为,全要素生产率是经济增长的重要决定力量,而全要素生产率的发展又与国家的内外经济发展战略与交通基础设施建设的通达程度有关。现阶段将三者纳入到一个模型框架的研究,且缺乏对经济周期计划的考虑。采用动态面板数据的一阶差分GMM估计方法与面板数据的Driscoll和Kraay（1998）的模型方法分别研究中国2001-2014（长期）、5年计划（中期）与3年计划（短期）的我国内外经济发展战略、交通通达程度与全要素生产率发展的关系。研究发现,对外经济发展战略与交通通达性的提高,有利于外国先进技术的引进与模仿学习,有利于全要素生产率的发展,而对内经济发展战略与支持科技创新的战略由于缺乏持续性与连续性,对技术创新的支撑相对较弱,我国的基础设施建设效果尚未充分发挥,且缺乏自主知识创新。为此,提出了扩大对外开放与推进交通基础设施建设积极改善国内技术创新投资的持续性与连续性的政策启示。     

Savings,investment, and capital mobility within China

This paper addresses the capital mobility among regions within China. Using a range of panel estimators which deals with the non-stationarity of time series components, individual heterogeneity and common unobserved factors, we show that the savings and investment (both expressed as ratios to GDP) are positively correlated for a sample of 28 Chinese provinces over the period of 1978 to 2006. According to the Feldstein-Horioka's argument (1980, Economic Journal (90), pp.314–329), such a correlation can be interpreted as evidence of low capital mobility. In addition, by means of Granger causality test, we fail to provide consistent evidence to support the hypothesis of efficient capital allocation in China. Combining the results given above, it is believed that the capital may be inefficiently retained within the provincial confines. We conjecture that the intermarriage between financial power and local authorities is primarily responsible for this worrying phenomenon.     

How does real exchange rate influence labour productivity in China?

Since China's transition to a market economy, the labour productivity growth has been dramatically rapid, in particular since 1994. This speeding up has been accompanied by the reverse of the exchange rate policy of China, which has strongly depreciated its currency before 1994, and then either appreciated or stabilized it. The theoretical arguments suggesting several kinds of real exchange rate impact on labour productivity are developed. An econometric model is then proposed and estimated, using panel data for the twenty-nine Chinese provinces and for the period from 1986 to 2007. The econometric results show that the appreciation of the real exchange rate had a favourable effect on the labour productivity growth, leading to a kind of virtuous circle: the real appreciation of the currency boosts the growth of labour productivity while, according to the Balassa–Samuelson effect, productivity growth tends to push up the real appreciation. Moreover, this favourable effect is stronger in inland provinces than in coastal provinces, contributing to a minimizing of the gap between inland and coastal provinces.     

Spatial spillovers of regional wages: Evidence from Chinese provinces

This study investigates the effects of spatial interactions on local wages based on a panel data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2001 and 2010. Using the Global Moran's I statistic, we provide empirical evidence for the presence of spatial dependencies in provincial wages. Then, we estimate the provincial wage equation using a spatial panel model that controls for spatial heterogeneity and spatial interdependence as well as other regional characteristics. The empirical results show that spatial wage spillover plays an important role in the determination of local wages. Furthermore, we find that human capital and economic growth are two underlying forces strengthening wage spillovers across provinces.     

Protectionism and Industry Location in Chinese Provinces

This paper investigates the determinants of activities’ location in Chinese provinces based on a unique panel data set, paying particular attention to the role of local protectionism. We estimate a model of production location across Chinese provinces that combines factor endowments and geographical consideration. Results emphasize that the dynamics of comparative advantages and the forces of the new geographic economy are at work in Chinese provinces. Estimations, however, lend strong support to the role of local protectionism. The location of economic activities in Chinese provinces does thus not exclusively follow the logic of the market.     

Evidence of panel stationarity from Chinese provincial and regional income

The aim of this paper is to examine whether Chinese provincial and regional real GDP and per capita real GDP are panel stationary for the period 1952–2003. We allow for multiple structural breaks based on a technique developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Barrio-Castro, T, D., & Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita. Econometrics Journal, 8, 159–175]. Allowing for at most five structural breaks, we find that for 67% of the provinces, per capita real GDP is stationary; while we only find stationarity of real GDP for 17% of the provinces. However, when we extend the analysis to panel data models, we find statistically strong evidence of panel stationarity of Chinese provincial and regional income.     

“一带一路”能否助推我国全球价值链攀升——基于基础设施建设的中介效应分析

提升全球价值链地位是新发展格局下畅通国际循环的应有之义，"一带一路"倡议提出已近7年，其对我国全球价值链地位的影响究竟如何仍有待科学论证。文章基于2009-2017年我国30个省市的面板数据，采用双重差分倾向得分匹配法（PSM-DID），考察了"一带一路"倡议的提出对我国全球价值链地位提升的影响，并从传统基础设施建设与新型基础设施建设的双重视角探讨其内在逻辑。研究发现："一带一路"倡议有效提升了我国GVC地位，且政策效应具有滞后性。将基础设施建设纳入多重中介效应模型检验发现，基础设施建设是"一带一路"建设提升GVC地位的重要途径；并且，当前传统基础设施建设对GVC地位的提升力度（1.94%）依然高于新型基础设施建设（0.09%）。进一步，面板门槛回归模型的结果表明基础设施结构具有门槛效应，新基建投资占比超过23.11%以后，其对GVC地位的中介效应才能凸显。实现基础设施的"双轮驱动"作用，需进一步加大对新基建的关注。上述结论对于"一带一路"建设背景下，科学推动基础设施建设，进而促进我国GVC地位提升具有一定的启示意义。     

外商直接投资对我国的环境效应分析

改革开放以来,我国FDI流入量逐年增长,FDI在我国快速的经济增长中发挥了巨大的作用。然而,随着近年来我国部分省市环境恶化现象的出现。FDI对我国环境的负面影响也引起了较大关注。部分投资于污染密集型产业的FDI加剧了我国的环境污染,而部分省市盲目吸引FDI的引资政策也忽视了部分FDI对当地环境造成的严重污染。随着我国环境污染的加剧,以及人们环保意识的提高,如何协调FDI与环境之间的关系也成为我国经济发展中面临的重要问题。     

金融发展、技术进步与产业结构升级 —基于西部12省面板数据的经验分析

选取1994-2015年西部12省的数据,采用静态面板模型研究三者之间的关系。结果表明：西部地区金融发展对技术进步存在轻微抑制作用;金融发展对产业结构的调整作用主要体现在第二产业比例的提升;技术进步推动产业结构升级的作用并不明显。最后提出完善金融发展体系,强化金融支持力度;提高科技创新能力,依托技术进步培育新兴优势产业;积极发展现代服务业以促进二三产业协调发展等建议。     

市场化、网络舆论与我国地方政府公共服务效率——基于省际面板数据的分析

文章以我国省级政府的面板数据为支撑,分析省级政府的公共服务效率,在此基础上进一步研究市场化、网络舆论等外部因素对政府公共服务效率的影响。结论表明,我国地方政府公共服务效率地区差距较大,东部省份较高,西部地区最低;地方政府公共服务效率整体偏低,但是上升趋势明显;网络舆论、人口密度、产业结构、对外开放程度和政府规模等因素对政府公共服务效率产生了显著地影响;人口素质、市场化水平对政府公共服务效率影响并不显著;人口密度、网络舆论等外部因素变量在动态环境下并不稳定。     

制度、文化与中国OFDI的利益动机

文章基于2004-2012年中国对外投资的跨国面板数据,考察影响中国OFDI区位选择的制度、文化与利益驱动因素,研究显示:东道国优良的制度水平会吸引中国OFDI进入,而以基因距离所刻画的文化异质性则是中国OFDI区位选择中的阻碍因素;争夺市场、获取资源和避税是中国OFDI的三大利益驱动。进一步研究利益驱动因素的时空变化,我们发现:（1）从时间演变看,中国OFDI的避税动机显著减弱,而争夺市场与资源的动机微弱加强;（2）从空间分布看,为了获取市场和资源,中国OFDI在地理距离上表现出"舍近求远"的空间替换时间策略;（3）从制度与文化因素看,争夺市场和避税两大动因倾向于选择制度水平高、与中国文化接近的国家,而获取资源的强烈动机则突破了制度缺陷和文化差异的限制。