A Keynesian general equilibrium model with competitive firms and rational expectations

A Keynesian general equilibrium model is developed from neoclassical principles. The model is based on competitive firm behavior, and optimizing agents that form expectations rationally. Firms determine their product price to maximize expected profits. Non-neutrality results follow from micro foundations that view firms as committing to a price and output level before actual demand is observed. It follows that optimal output levels are in part determined by demand conditions. In the general equilibrium framework, increases in government spending lead to welfare-improving increases in aggregate output.I thank Tom Cosimano, Strat Douglas, Douglas Gale, Norm Miller, Nick Rowe, Geoffrey Woglom, and two anonymous referees for valuable comments. The responsibility for potential errors remains entirely my own.     

Endogenous innovation under New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model using the framework of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We incorporate the Schumpeterian approach that generates seemingly sticky prices and reinterpret the Calvo mechanism from the perspective of Bertrand competition and successful entrepreneurs. Our results demonstrate that both positive productivity shocks and endogenous innovation have a negative effect on subsequent endogenous innovation. These self-destructive effects of endogenous innovation might account for the IT productivity paradox and productivity slowdown seen in advanced countries. Furthermore, it is shown that there are both neutral and non-neutral properties of monetary policy shocks. They are neutral in terms of the growth effect, but non-neutral in terms of the level effect. In particular, expansionist monetary policies are desirable to facilitate endogenous innovation.     

From equilibrium to disequilibrium: the genesis of Don Patinkin's interpretation of the Keynesian theory

This paper explains the reasons that led Don Patinkin to interpret the Keynesian theory in a disequilibrium perspective. We claim that the author adopted this position because he believed that the assumption of wage rigidity misrepresented the concept of involuntary unemployment and that, consequently, it had to be rejected. It is shown that this conclusion resulted from the confrontation of Patinkin, during the writing of his Ph.D. thesis, with the interpretations of the Keynesian theory argued respectively by Lange, Klein and Modigliani.     

The temporary equilibrium method: Hicks against Hicks

Abstract

Hicks is renowned for having introduced the temporary equilibrium framework in his book Value and Capital. Subsequently, however, he partially recanted this framework by rejecting the market clearing idea while still keeping the week device. The aim of this paper is to assess whether this change was right. My answer will be broadly negative. To make my point, I will ponder on the meaning and implications of the week device, assess the validity of Hicks' claim that slow adjustment can cause market rationing, examine his claim that the possibility of market clearing depends on the prevailing market form and, finally, assess his twofold filiations towards Marshall and Walras.     

Mean-variance analysis in temporary equilibrium

In this paper we take the first few steps towards a new theory of portfolio choice in the spirit of conventional mean-variance analysis but without strong assumptions on preferences or the distributions for returns. In this model agents form beliefs about returns based on conjectures about finitely many moments. In temporary equilibrium all current markets clear and conjectures about moments are correct. We prove the existence of a steady-state sequence of temporary equilibria and identify conditions on the structure of beliefs that ensure that the steady-state temporary equilibrium beliefs are in some sense accurate and closely approximate rational expectations.     

Poole in the New Keynesian model

We study the properties of alternative central bank targeting procedures within the standard New Keynesian model. We find that Poole's famous insights concerning the output stabilization properties of money and interest rate targeting obtain when intertemporal substitution is low. And that output volatility rankings do not induce similar welfare rankings. Unlike the popular presumption, money targeting always fares better for money demand shocks. For fiscal shocks, money targeting does better for low and worse for high degree of intertemporal substitution. The opposite pattern obtains for supply shocks.     

Construction of a state space for interrelated securities with an application to temporary equilibrium theory

Summary We construct an endogenous state space in an exchange economy with possibly infinite horizon. Every period agents trade securities whose payoffs depend on future dividends and asset prices. We reject the perfect foresight assumption on the ground that agents have not only limited knowledge of other individuals' endowments and preferences, but also limited capacity to compute equilibria. We choose instead absence of arbitrage as the principle which allows agents to determine if a system of future prices is possible. We give an alogrithm to compute the set of nonarbitrage prices every period, with both finite and infinite horizon. We then apply this endogenous structure of uncertainty to an infinite horizon temporary equilibrium model.I would like to thank Professor Donald Brown for his constant help and guidance. I have also greatly benefited from helpful discussions with Professors Jacques Drèze, Bernard Dumas, Mordecai Kurz, Carsten Nielsen, Jan Werner, and Ho-Mou Wu.     

Devaluation in a neo-Keynesian temporary equilibrium

We analyse a two sector open economy model in which prices are rigid and markets clear by quantity adjustments. We consider the case of Keynesian unemployment (excess supplies of labour and of the non-traded good), and derive conditions under which devaluation will be expansionary and will improve the balance of trade.     

Relaxing the sure-solvency conditions in temporary equilibrium models

The usual temporary equilibrium results hold when sure-solvency conditions are appropriately relaxed. Preferences over potentially bankrupt states are represented by an extension of the indirect utility function for negative wealth. For models without institutional constraints such as margin requirements, sure-solvency can be replaced by unbounded aversion to bankruptcy. For models with institutional constraints, sure-solvency can be replaced by a weaker limit on maximum loss (or expected loss).     

The convergence of least squares learning in stochastic temporary equilibrium models

Summary. This paper provides conditions for the almost sure convergence of the least squares learning rule in a stochastic temporary equilibrium model, where regressions are performed on the past values of the endogenous state variable. In contrast to earlier studies, (Evans and Honkapohja, 1998; Marcent and Sargent, 1989), which were local analyses, the dynamics are studied from a global viewpoint, which allows one to obtain an almost sure convergence result without employing projection facilities. Received: April 7, 2001; revised version: September 5, 2001     

The Role of Keynesian Policies in Semi-industrialized Countries: theory and evidence from India

This paper examines the relevance of Keynesian policies—interpreted as those policies implied by Keynes's theoretical analysis of unemployment developed in The General Theory—for a subset of developing economies, which are called semi-industrialized countries. It draws on recent contributions in development economics to argue on theoretical grounds that Keynesian policies are relevant for semi-industrialized countries even when they are constrained by capital shortages, stagnant agricultural sectors, and foreign exchange availability. It then discusses the recent development experience of India to illustrate the empirical relevance of some of these theoretical issues.     

A policy rule for ‘Say's Law’ in a theory of temporary equilibrium

In a theory of temporary macroeconomic equilibrium this paper considers whether there is a simple nondiscretionary rule of monetary management under which the free play of market forces will always equate aggregate money demand to the sum of expected money incomes, whatever the latter may be, so that aggregate demand ceases to be a determinant of the economy's behavior. The rule proposed is that the Central Bank should let the commercial banks determine their cash reserves by trading negotiable securities with it at current prices. The conditions for the rule's success are given and are supported by theoretical considerations.     

A New Keynesian SVAR model of the Australian economy

We estimate an SVAR model for the Australian economy based on an open economy New Keynesian model that accounts for the forward-looking behaviour exhibited by economic agents. Deep structural parameters are identified by placing exclusion restrictions on the VAR residuals and the covariance matrix. Dynamic responses show no price and exchange rate puzzles and indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stabilises output fluctuations in the short run while maintaining a medium-run inflation target since 1984. Aggregate demand shocks are found to be driven by external demands. The RBA exercises caution in responding to aggregate supply shocks.     

凯恩斯理论在我国宏观调控中的应用局限及对策

20世纪30年代初,面对资本主义经济萧条和严重失业,凯恩斯发表了《就业、利息和货币通论》一书,批判传统理论,系统提出了国家干预经济的理论和政策,并立即在西方世界产生了巨大影响。而如今我国正遭遇着美国次贷危机所引起的全球金融风暴,在当前次贷危机的背景下对我国正在进行的宏观调控是否有借鉴价值仍是一个值得深思的问题。为此,我们有必要在立足现实国情的基础上对凯恩斯理论进行进一步的分析和研究。