人口老龄化、公共人力资本投资与 经济增长*

本文利用内生化老龄化的世代交叠模型,探讨了老龄化社会中为了促进经济增长可选择的公共人力资本投资的最优相对规模和结构。本文研究表明,公共人力资本投资相对规模（即占GDP比例）和公共健康支出占比（即占公共人力资本投资比例）均与经济增长呈倒U型关系,且最优值通过老龄化对经济增长的作用表现出来。即当老龄化对经济增长有促进（抑制）作用时,政府促进经济增长的政策是提高（降低）人力资本投资相对规模和公共健康支出占比。基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究发现,老龄化不利于经济增长,公共人力资本投资相对规模及公共健康支出占比偏大,均处在倒U型曲线的下降阶段,分别通过挤出对经济增长更具促进作用的私人投资、公共物质资本投资和公共教育支出而不利于经济增长。本文的政策含义是,政府需提高公共教育支出占比,引导和鼓励更有效率的社会私人资本进行人力资本投资,以逐步降低公共人力资本投资的相对规模。当前公共物质资本投资则需继续加强。     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN MEXICO,CRIME, AND ECONOMIC FORCES

This paper re‐examines inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the 32 subnational Mexican states based on quarterly data from 2005 to 2015, which includes rising drug‐related crimes. We estimate our models using panel data methods by type of crime, state‐level indicators (real wages and electricity consumption), macroeconomic forces (the real exchange rate and interest rate), and a dummy variable for the financial crisis of 2008–2009. We employ a flexible lag‐length method and find that homicides and thefts have negative and statistically significant effects on FDI, while other crimes have no effects. Subsample work suggests higher negative effects in the most violent states. (JEL F15, F21, F23, F36)     

外国直接投资与经济增长的关系及影响

从中国和其他23个发展中国家总量时间序列资料的分析中可以看出,国内生产总值与外国直接投资之间存在着相互影响、相互促进的互动关系。除经济因素以外,稳定可靠的组织机构和城市化的发展在吸引外国直接投资方面发挥着相当重要的作用,它们是促进经济增长的重要因素。     

PUBLIC DEBT AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL WITH REAL WAGE RIGIDITIES

We present an endogenous growth model with public capital, public debt and real wage rigidities due to labor market imperfections. Assuming that the primary surplus relative to gross domestic produce (GDP) is a positive function of the debt to GDP ratio, we study growth and employment effects of deficit‐financed public investment using simulations as well as how fiscal policy affects stability of the economy. Further, we contrast the growth rate and the unemployment rate in the deficit scenario with that of the balanced budget scenario. Finally, we compare our results with those obtained in case of flexible wages and full employment.     

INTANGIBLE INVESTMENT IN JAPAN: MEASUREMENT AND CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMIC GROWTH

Following the approach of Corrado, Hulten, and Sichel (2005, 2006 ), we measure intangible investment and examine the contribution of intangible capital to economic growth in Japan. We find that the ratio of intangible investment to GDP in Japan has risen during the past 20 years and now stands at 11.1 percent, which is lower than the ratio estimated for the U.S. in the early 2000s. The ratio of intangible to tangible investment in Japan is also lower than equivalent values estimated for the U.S. In addition, we find that, in stark contrast to the U.S., where intangible capital grew rapidly in the late 1990s, the growth rate of intangible capital in Japan declined from the late 1980s to the early 2000s. Our conclusions regarding intangible investment in Japan remain largely unchanged even if, using data with respect to firm-specific resources, we take on-the-job training into account.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PUERTO RICO,ARGENTINA, AND MEXICO*

Has economic growth in developing countries led to increasing inequality in the size distribution of income? Following a brief review of the advantages and deficiencies of several traditional measures of income distribution, the author examines the evidence from Puerto Rico, Argentina, and Mexico in recent years. The findings suggest that the income shares received by the lower half and by the top 5 per cent of families in Puerto Rico and Mexico have declined from 1950 to 1963, while the income shares received by the bottom nine deciles of families in Argentina have also fallen during the same period. The rising Gini ratio and standard deviation of the logs of income, both indicating greater inequality, contrast with a declining coefficient of variation for all three countries. More detailed sectoral distributions for each year reveal greater equality within agriculture than non-agriculture for Puerto Rico and Mexico, while Argentina and the United States demonstrate less equality within agriculture. The trends in the countrywide distributions are consistent with the observation of the increasing differential between sectors, the increasing weight of the more unequal sector, and the increasing level of inequality within both sectors. These trends, however, are qualified by the particular set of measures which are applied to the data. Finally, the author speculates on possible explainations for these trends in terms of changes in the crop and industry mix.     

房地产投资、房地产信贷与中国经济增长

本文使用中国35个大中城市1996-2007年的数据考察了房地产投资、房地产信贷与经济增长的互动关系。实证结果表明,第一,经济增长对房地产投资影响大于房地产投资对经济增长的影响。因此,一旦经济增长出现波动,将导致房地产投资剧烈波动,但房地产投资波动将引起经济增长较小波动。第二,房地产购买对经济增长的影响大于房地产开发投资;信贷对开发商比对购房者更重要。第三,经济增长对房地产信贷的影响大于房地产信贷对经济增长的影响。因此,一旦经济增长下跌,将导致房地产信贷严重萎缩。第四,房地产投资对经济增长的影响大于房地产信贷对经济增长的影响,但经济增长对房地产信贷的影响大于房地产投资对房地产信贷的影响。因此,一旦经济下滑,将严重压缩房地产信贷规模,但对房地产投资影响较小。第五,房价对房地产信贷影响大于经济增长和利率对房地产信贷的影响。一旦房价下跌,房地产信贷将严重萎缩,从而可能引发违约风险和房地产金融危机。为此,政府更应控制房价的过快增长。     

中国式经济增长:从投资与强制性技术变迁角度的一种解释

中国经济增长的核心是技术引进方式,研究表明,中国经济的长期增长速度与投资增长速度和技术输出国经济增长速度成正比。     

INVESTMENT IN PRIMARY, SECONDARY, AND HIGHER EDUCATION AND THE EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

This author analyzes the effects of primary, secondary, and higher education on per capita growth for flow measures of education: enrollment rates, public expenditures, and expenditures per student. Worldwide panels since 1960 and developing and developed country subsamples are examined. Secondary and higher education enrollment rates and expenditures per student in lower education stages and primary overall demonstrate significance. Public higher education expenditures overall and per student are disadvantageous. This study recommends raising enrollment rates and prioritizing public expenditures toward lower education stages, while ensuring that expenditures per student keep up with increases in student cohorts. Indirect effects of education are explored. (JEL O11 , H52 , I28 )     

FISCAL STRUCTURAL REFORM AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: PUBLIC SPENDING AND PRIVATE EFFORT*

This paper explores governments' and private agents' incentives to implement or postpone fiscal structural reform attempts. Both fiscal consolidation and fiscal reorganization often create spillover effects and thereby induce free‐riding problems. It is thus important to cope with the free‐riding behaviour of interest groups. It is often argued that in order to attain successful outcomes, a good macroeconomic situation is needed, since we expect positive income effects. In this paper, we first explain the dynamic aspects of insufficient fiscal consolidation due to free‐riding problems in the framework of private provision of public goods. Then, using a static model between central and local governments, we examine the sign of income effects for reform attempts to pursue fiscal reorganization. It is shown that good economic circumstances do not necessarily enhance reform of reorganizing fiscal expenditures, although it could enhance fiscal reconstruction.     

HEALTH INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC OUTPUT IN REGIONAL CHINA

Using a 29‐year (1978–2006) panel of provincial‐level data from China, this article investigates the role of health capital in a human capital model of economic output. Robust evidence is found through panel cointegration analysis that health capital has a significant and positive effect on the Gross Regional Product in China; the effect being stronger in the inland regions compared to the coastal areas based on estimates that account for regional heterogeneity. This article highlights and discusses the potential role of diminishing returns to health investment in this globally important area. (JEL I15, R11, C23)     

财政纵向失衡、公共支出结构与经济增长*

全面深化财税体制改革释放体制红利是助推地方经济增长与民生福祉增进的关键所在。为此,本文首先从理论层面系统诠释财政纵向失衡对经济增长的作用机制,继而通过构建动态面板联立方程模型将财政纵向失衡、公共支出结构与经济增长同时纳入分析框架,实证探究财政纵向失衡对地方经济增长的影响效应,而后通过进一步标准化回归估计考察财政纵向失衡对经济增长的作用渠道与传导效应。研究发现财政纵向失衡不仅通过直接作用渠道显著降低经济增长,还通过作用于地方政府公共支出结构间接对经济增长产生负向抑制效应。     

PUBLIC EDUCATION, FERTILITY INCENTIVES, NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND WELFARE

Using a simple overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth, we analyse the effects of both child allowances and the system of public education on the rate of fertility, the per capita income and the individual lifetime welfare. The essential message of the present paper is that developed countries plagued by below-replacement fertility and income stagnation may raise per capita income and the rate of fertility at the same time by increasing the public education expenditure rather than by resorting to child allowances. The latter, in fact, are found to be harmful for long-run neoclassical economic growth and, in contrast with the common belief, for the rate of population growth as well. Moreover, welfare analysis has shown the existence of a Pareto-efficient welfare-maximizing educational contribution rate.     

中国民间投资的区域差异与影响因素

民间投资是全社会投资的重要组成部分,对改革开放以来中国经济的持续发展起了重要作用,但民间投资区域差异问题却未引起足够重视。对此,文章运用1992—2004年的相关数据资料,通过建立计量经济模型,借助回归分析,从传统因素、集聚因素、干预因素三方面探讨了中国民间投资区域差异的成因及其变化,结果表明,民间投资主要分布在东部沿海地区和京广铁路沿线省区,近几年来呈现出由南向北及沿长江和陇海兰新线由东部向中西部扩散的趋势。     

INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KOREA

The wage rate, labour productivity, and labour share are examined as they relate to changing industrial relations over the last four decades in the Korea. The results imply that the labour share is greater than that of Korea's competitive equilibrium in the 1990s. We analyse the effect of industrial relations on economic growth through a theoretical model comparing the growth rate of the competitive equilibrium with that of the bargaining equilibrium. The bargaining growth rate is lower than that of the competitive equilibrium. Among bargaining equilibria, the growth rate decreases as the labour share increases.