Betriebliche Altersversorgung durch Direktversicherungen – Die Folgen der Unternehmensteuerreform 2008 für die Verhandlungsposition von Arbeitgebern und Arbeitnehmern – Aktualisierung des Beitrags in Heft 3/2007, S. 375 ff. –

This paper discusses the consequences of the new German tax regime on the attractiveness of life insurance policies as a possible corporate pension scheme. We analyze those insurances both from the perspective of an employer and from the perspective of an employee. The tax reform decreased their attractiveness, but still it is possible to find agreements which are valuable for both parties.     

Small business tax policy and informality: evidence from Georgia

Using a panel of administrative data and regression discontinuity analysis, this paper examines how the introduction of preferential tax regimes for Georgian micro- and small businesses in 2010 affected formal firm creation and tax compliance. The results show that the new tax regime for micro-businesses increased the number of newly registered firms by 27–41 % below the eligibility threshold during the first year of the reform, but not in subsequent years. We do not find an effect of the new tax regime for small businesses on formal firm creation in any year. Policy makers are often also concerned about abuse risks stemming from differentiated tax treatment of micro- and small businesses. The analysis in this paper reveals reduced tax compliance among small taxpayers for multiple years after the reform and among micro-business taxpayers only during the first year of the reform.     

Die Gruppenaufsicht nach dem Entwurf der Solvency II Rahmenrichtlinie

The draft framework directive for Solvency II (“Draft”) in general and the section on group supervision in particular is an impressive step towards a modern supervisory system, which is aligned with the economical reality of the insurance groups. It is to be hoped that the Draft will be implemented with only few changes.The Draft distinguishes a general and a special (group support regime) group supervision. The general group supervision constitutes a much more modern concept than the current Insurance Groups Directive, since it partly modifies the solo supervision (internal model to be approved by the group supervisor) and introduces a group based solvency requirement, the calculation of which allows for diversification effects on a group level.The group support regime, which applies only if an application has been approved by the group supervisor, allows to recognise such diversification effects by allowing the parent undertaking to replace paid-up own funds in a subsidiary undertaking by a group support declaration. Conditions for group support are in particular that the respective subsidiary is subject to an integrated risk management and internal control system, that the group solvency requirement is covered with own funds, and that the parent undertaking commits to promptly transfer own funds to the subsidiary where necessary, up to the limit of the group support declaration.     

Regime-switching debt and taxation

The effects of changes to the tax rate are studied within a framework where an estimated regime-switching process for the debt-output ratio is embedded in a standard growth model. The regime is a hidden state variable, so agents face a signal extraction problem. Consequently, agents incorporate the possibility of switching to different fiscal regimes when forming expectations over future taxes. Decision rules have additional nonlinearity relative to fixed-regime models. Income allocation and the tax elasticity of investment depend on agents’ inference regarding the regime. Specifically, the tax elasticity can be either positive or negative, depending on whether agents perceive a tax reform as an intra-regime shock or change in regime.     

Would a Flat‐Rate Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany? A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk*

When potential income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour of or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex‐ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship are very rare, however. This paper estimates the ex‐ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat‐rate tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self‐employment based on a structural microsimulation model with econometrically estimated transition rates under risk. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage people to choose self‐employment, but rather discourage them from doing so. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation.     

Cost Uncertainty and Taxpayer Compliance

The existence of a private cost borne by audited taxpayers affects the tax enforcement policy. This is so because tax auditors will face now two sources of uncertainty, namely, the typical one associated with taxpayers’ income and that associated with the taxpayers’ idiosyncratic attitude towards tax compliance. Moreover, the inspection policy can be exposed to some randomness from the taxpayers’ viewpoint due to the uncertainty about the audit cost borne by the tax authority. In this paper we provide an unified framework to analyze the effects of all these sources of uncertainty in a model of tax compliance with strategic interaction between auditors and taxpayers. We show that more variance in the distribution of the taxpayers’ private cost of evading raises both tax compliance and the ex-ante welfare of taxpayers. The effects of the uncertainty about the audit cost faced by the tax authority are generally ambiguous. We also discuss the implications of our model for the regressive (or progressive) bias of the effective tax system.     

Tax policies and agency costs

We show that when large corporations are subject to a different tax system than smaller firms, the agency cost of under- and overinvestment is significantly altered. In contrast to the findings in the literature, the gap between the first- and second-best investment trigger prices do not move in lockstep with variations in the corporate tax rate, as in the case of a linear tax system. We show that the gap can either widen or shrink, depending on the tax policy design and regime. In addition, we find that the agency cost under a progressive tax regime is considerably larger than the agency cost under a regressive tax regime when equityholders have to bear all the investment costs. These results are reversed when managers have the ability to issue additional debt to finance the firm's expansion and transfer part of the investment costs to bondholders.     

Tax Reform and the Demand for Debt

This article examines the impact on household borrowing from a tax reform that implied a change from progressive to constant marginal tax rates on interest deductions. We use three alternative empirical methods to address the problem of endogenous explanatory variables, which arises when the marginal tax rate itself is a function of the amount of debt: The first approach uses instrumental variables to examine the significance of the marginal tax rate directly and produces mixed results. In the second approach we use tobit regressions based on repeated cross-sectional data to examine the correspondence between debt and income and find that the households' amount of debt were strongly and positively related to income before the tax reform and significantly more income-dependent under progressive tax rates than under the constant tax rate. Finally, using panel data covering the last year prior to the reform and the first year after, we find that the change in a household's marginal tax rate had a significant impact on the change in its amount of debt.     

On the optimal progressivity of the income tax code

This paper computes the optimal progressivity of the income tax code in a dynamic general equilibrium model with household heterogeneity in which uninsurable labor productivity risk gives rise to a nontrivial income and wealth distribution. A progressive tax system serves as a partial substitute for missing insurance markets and enhances an equal distribution of economic welfare. These beneficial effects of a progressive tax system have to be traded off against the efficiency loss arising from distorting endogenous labor supply and capital accumulation decisions.Using a utilitarian steady state social welfare criterion we find that the optimal US income tax is well approximated by a flat tax rate of 17.2% and a fixed deduction of about $9,400. The steady state welfare gains from a fundamental tax reform towards this tax system are equivalent to 1.7% higher consumption in each state of the world. An explicit computation of the transition path induced by a reform of the current towards the optimal tax system indicates that a majority of the population currently alive (roughly 62%) would experience welfare gains, suggesting that such fundamental income tax reform is not only desirable, but may also be politically feasible.     

The “flat tax(es)”: principles and experience

This paper reviews experience with the ‘flat taxes’ that have been adopted in many countries in recent years. It stresses that they differ fundamentally, and that empirical evidence on their effects is very limited. This precludes simple generalization, but several lessons emerge: there is no sign of Laffer-type behavioral responses generating revenue increases from the tax cut elements of these reforms; their impact on compliance is theoretically ambiguous, but there is evidence for Russia that compliance did improve; the distributional effects of the flat taxes are not unambiguously regressive, and in some cases, they may have increased progressivity (including through the impact on compliance); adoption of the flat tax has not resolved common challenges in taxing capital income; and it may have strengthened, not weakened, the automatic stabilizers. A key reason for adoption of the flat tax seems to have been to signal a fundamental shift toward a market-oriented policy regime. Looking forward, as the value of the signal diminishes and familiar political economy forces reassert themselves, the question is not so much whether more countries will adopt a flat tax as whether those that have will move away from it.      

Der Einsatz mehrjähriger interner Modelle zur Unterstützung von Managemententscheidungen

For value based management, internal models are needed which optimally reflect the insurer’s actual risk situation. Hence, the management demands stochastic models which allow a projection of several future years and so permit a risk evaluation for a longer period because annual projections are in general not sufficient for value based management. To meet these demands a concrete suggestion for an internal model in a several year context is made which includes management strategies. A risk based capital is defined in a several year context which can be used for strategic value based management. In a case study different management strategies are discussed and the effects on the return- and risk-profile of the insurer are analysed (in a one and several year context).     

Aktienanlage für Lebensversicherer unter Solvency II

Life insurance companies are among the largest institutional investors. As part of their investment policy they are subject to special legal requirements. In particular the calculation of the solvency capital that has to be deposited for the market risk has changed under Solvency II. A widely spread thesis on this topic is that investments in equity have become unprofitable for life insurers due to solvency capital requirements – compared to previous periods of high equity ratios of temporally over 25%. Therefore insurers might have dropped their average stock quotas to below 5%.The intention of the present study is to analyze whether the capital requirements for the equity investments under Solvency II are a hurdle to achieve a reasonable profitability or – opposite to that – whether the equity investments are a suitable investment to provide an acceptable return on assets. For this purpose the solvency capital requirements of the equity investment under Solvency I considering the BaFin stress test are compared with the new solvency capital requirements under Solvency II including the symmetric adjustment factor (SA). Furthermore the diversification effects are taken into account; they are analyzed on the basis of the SFCR reports of the life insurance companies first published in 2017. As a result the risk capital requirements for equity investments under Solvency II have been reduced to more than 50% compared to prior solvency requirements and depending on the observed scenarios. Whilst Solvency I required an underlying risk capital of 31% at the end of 2017, Solvency II requires only 13.56% following the standard model and after aggregating the risk-mitigating effects in the group scenario. This effect results in a surplus of 7.2%, considering industry-standard capital costs for the underlying solvency capital and an average stock market return of 8% per annum. Consequently the equity investment is suitable to increase the profitability of the investments of German life insurance companies especially in the environment of low interest rates in the capital market for fixed income titles.     

Wenn nicht jetzt, wann dann? Zur Reform der Pflegeversicherung

The recent reform of the German compulsory long-term care insurance provides for an adjustment of the benefits. According to our calculations, the reform proposal will fail to ensure constant benefits in real terms, due to an increase of the demand for long-term care associated with population ageing. Furthermore, as long-term care insurance is payroll based and pay-as-you-go financed, it will substantially burden future generations. For this reason, further reforms are needed if sustainability is to be achieved. A transition from a pay-as-you-go to a funded system would disburden future generations almost completely, at the cost of transitory generations whose payments would markedly increase. Delaying the reform even a few years would however increase the burden for future generations again.     

Zur Modellierung von Rückversicherungsverträgen in der dynamischen Finanzanalyse

In this paper we study the influence of Gaussian dependencies on the payoff of reinsurance contracts and the resulting effects on a non-life insurer's risk and return profile. To achieve this, we integrate different Gaussian dependencies and reinsurance contracts in a dynamic financial analysis (DFA) framework and conduct numerical tests within a simulation study. Depending on the reinsurance contract and the dependency employed, we find substantial differences in risk assessment for the ruin probability and for the expected policyholder deficit. The results have important implications for regulators and rating agencies that use these risk measures as a foundation for capital standards and ratings. Our results extend the findings of a recent working paper by Eling and Toplek (2008) with a detailed analysis of Gaussian dependencies under different reinsurance contracts.     

Robustifizierung des Chain-Ladder-Verfahrens über ein skalares Zustandsraummodell

Applications of state space models and the Kalman filter are comparatively underrepresented in stochastic claims reserving. This is usually caused by their high complexity due to matrix-based approaches, which complicate their applications. In order to facilitate the implementation of state space models in practice, we present a state space model for cumulative payments in the framework of a scalar-based approach. In addition to a comprehensive presentation of this scalar state space model, some empirical applications and comparisons with popular stochastic claims reserving methods are performed, which show the strengths of the scalar state space model in practical applications. This model is a robustified extension of the well-known Chain Ladder method under the assumption, that the observations in the upper triangle are based on unobservable states. Using Kalman-filter recursions for prediction, filtering and smoothing of cumulative payments, the entire unobservable lower and upper run-off triangles can be determined. Moreover, the model provides an easy way to find and smooth outliers and to interpolate gaps in the data. Thus, the problem of missing values in the upper triangle is also solved in a natural way.     

Financial leverage and corporate taxation: evidence from German corporate tax return data

To estimate the impact of profit taxation on the financial leverage of corporations, this study uses a pseudopanel constructed from comprehensive corporate tax return microdata for the period 1998–2001, which saw the introduction of major corporate tax reform in Germany. Financial leverage refers to the ratio of long-term debt to total capital. The endogeneity of the firm-specific marginal after-financing corporate income tax rate is controlled for by an instrumental variable approach. The instrument for the observed marginal tax rate is the counterfactual tax rate that a corporation would have faced in a particular period had there been no endogenous change, triggered by the tax reform, of its financial leverage and tax base. This counterfactual tax rate is derived from a detailed microsimulation model of the corporate sector, based on tax return microdata. The marginal tax rate has a statistically significant and relatively large positive effect on corporate leverage; for firms reporting positive profits, an increase of the marginal tax rate of 1 % would increase the financial leverage by approximately 0.7 %, on average. The debt ratio is less responsive to tax incentives for small corporations and firms facing high economic risks.     

论个人所得税的二元课税模式

由于综合个人所得税制在理论基础和实际征管方面都存在着难以克服的困难,发端于北欧国家的对劳动所得适用累进税率而对资本所得适用比例税率的二元个人所得税制就成为一种较为现实而理想的模式,在国际上正得到日益广泛的支持。我国近年提出的综合与分类相结合的个人所得税制模式近似于二元所得税制,应当作为个人所得税改革的长远目标,但还需对具体制度安排进行恰当的设计。     

Kundenzufriedenheit als Steuerungsinstrument in einem Versicherungsunternehmen – nur Schall und Rauch oder ökonomisch sinnvoll?

Customer behavior is managed by customer satisfaction in two dimensions: Insurer can profit by a higher customer loyalty und in addition, by a sensitive price behavior of customers. The findings of moderating effects are mean considered and thus, customer satisfaction is a too strong indicator of economic success in established concepts. To mange an insurance company effective, it is a good advice to implement a model that is specific for each company. This model should respect the heterogeneous factors of influence due to customer satisfaction by multidimensional instruments. Hence, insurer may identify drivers of service and work with analysis of correlations to describe the coherence between customer satisfaction and economic success exactly. The alignment for customer satisfaction is worth for traditional insurance companies, but only, if customer satisfaction is understood as an economic valued management that is culturally based in the firm. Manager should account for this suggestion to follow a sustainable story in a saturated competitive environment.     

Progressive taxes and firm births

Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the “flat tax” model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. We explore the implications of changes in these parameters for entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births. The Swiss fiscal system offers sufficient intra-national variation in tax codes to allow us to estimate such effects with considerable precision. We find that high average taxes and complicated tax codes depress firm birth rates, while tax progressivity per se promotes firm births. The latter result supports the existence of an insurance effect from progressive corporate income taxes for risk-averse entrepreneurs. However, implied elasticities with respect to the level and complexity of corporate taxes are an order of magnitude larger than elasticities with respect to the progressivity of tax schedules.     

纳税人税收遵从行为博弈分析

创建基于行为博弈的税收遵从均衡模型,将处于相同税收境况的纳税人视为一个群体,则个体纳税人选择税收遵从策略从纳税人群体角度来看就是以一定的概率选择该种策略。面对正常税务检查与严格税务检查并存的环境,纳税人税收遵从博弈稳定均衡策略形成不但取决于税制的特性,而且依赖于其他纳税人的税收遵从决策。依据税收遵从博弈均衡的形成机理,提出建立我国税收遵从激励监督机制的对策。