Bond review and rating change announcements: An examination of informational value and market efficiency

This paper examines the impact of announcements of both bond rating reviews and rating changes on equity returns. We find that announcements of review for possible down grading of debt have a significant negative effect on stock prices while subsequent actual downgrades have a negligible impact. Further, we find that press releases convey new information to the market whereas the subsequent reporting of this information in the financial press causes little market reaction. We conclude that extreme care regarding details of the dissemination of financial information must be exercised in any event study.     

关于小微企业信用评级指标体系的构建与分析

随着我国改革开放的不断深入,数量众多的小微企业已成为促进经济发展不可忽视的力量。但是融资困难已经对小微企业的深入发展产生了极大地影响,而对小微企业而言,要想通过上市这一直接融资渠道获取资金难度很大,故小微企业更多的只能依赖向银行贷款这一间接的融资渠道取得资金。但小微企业由于信用等级低,抵押物不足等不利因素导致商业银行不愿给其贷款。构建小微企业信用评级体系,能够帮助小微企业进行风险监测,加强对这些企业的管理。     

The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions

A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of the stylized facts of credit rating migrations. Parameter estimation is based on Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods for which the details are discussed in this paper. A simulation experiment is carried out to show the effectiveness of the estimation procedure. An empirical application is presented for transitions in a 7 grade rating system. The model includes a common dynamic component that can be interpreted as the credit cycle. Asymmetric effects of this cycle across rating grades and additional semi-Markov dynamics are found to be statistically significant. Finally, we investigate whether the common factor model suffices to capture systematic risk in rating transition data by introducing multiple factors in the model.     

The reaction of security prices to tracking stock announcements

This paper provides some empirical evidence on a relatively new and increasingly prevalent form of equity restructuring called tracking stock. We identify the effects associated with tracking stock announcements by excluding from our sample those announcement events that include other significant news announcements on the event date, such as announcements of acquisitions and earnings. For the 35 announcement events that fit this criteria, we find a mean abnormal return of over 3 percent in the two-day period surrounding the announced proposal to issue a tracking stock, with 30 of the 35 firms in the sample earning positive abnormal returns. The views expressed in this paper are that of the author(s) and do not reflect the views or opinions of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. or any of its affiliates.     

Endogenous information revelation in a competitive credit market and credit crunch

In this paper, we propose a new mechanism able to explain the occurrence of credit crunches. Considering a credit market with an asymmetry of information between borrowers and lenders, we assume that borrowers have to pay a cost to reveal information on the quality of their project. They decide to be transparent if it is necessary for getting a loan or for paying a lower interest rate. Two types of competitive equilibria may exist: an opaque equilibrium in which all projects receive funding without revealing information; a transparent one in which only the best projects reveal information and receive funding. It is also possible to get multiple equilibria. Incorporating this microeconomic mechanism in an OLG model, the economy may experience fluctuations due to the change of regime, and indeterminacy may occur.     

Role of credit and monetary policy in determining asset prices: Evidence from emerging market economies

We examine the relative dominance of credit and monetary policy shocks in influencing asset prices in emerging markets. Estimates from panel VAR models for 22 EMEs provide evidence of a significant impact of bank credit on house prices in contrast to trivial impact on stock prices, possibly due to prudential regulations on banks’ exposure to stock markets. Contractionary monetary policy triggers sizeable and persistent decline in stock than housing prices as higher interest rates may render the funding of leverage costlier. Global shocks play an important role in explaining fluctuations in domestic stock prices rather than house prices since the latter class of asset is largely non-tradable across countries.     

Forecasting the volatility of asset returns: The informational gains from option prices

A new class of forecasting models is proposed that extends the realized GARCH class of models through the inclusion of option prices to forecast the variance of asset returns. The VIX is used to approximate option prices, resulting in a set of cross-equation restrictions on the model’s parameters. The full model is characterized by a nonlinear system of three equations containing asset returns, the realized variance, and the VIX, with estimation of the parameters based on maximum likelihood methods. The forecasting properties of the new class of forecasting models, as well as a number of special cases, are investigated and applied to forecasting the daily S&P500 index realized variance using intra-day and daily data from September 2001 to November 2017. The forecasting results provide strong support for including the realized variance and the VIX to improve variance forecasts, with linear conditional variance models performing well for short-term one-day-ahead forecasts, whereas log-linear conditional variance models tend to perform better for intermediate five-day-ahead forecasts.     

The information content of earnings and turnover announcements in France

Annual net income is seen by shareholders as the most important figure, since it is, for individual accounts, the basis of appropriation of profit by the shareholders' general meeting. However, firms publish interim figures at a higher frequency to allow investors to react quickly to frequently updated information that gives them a more accurate view of the evolution of the firm. In the United States, according to regulation S-X, the interim quarterly reports must disclose the net income. In France, firms must publish their quarterly turnovers and their half-year income statements in addition to their annual accounts. Whereas American publications are practically homogeneous in nature in terms of earnings disclosure, the information content of French quarterly reports differs from that of the half-year and annual accounts. Such French irregularities in information content mean that interim and annual announcements do not have the same value for the shareholders. Because of the heterogeneous nature and the time frame of the disclosed information, one may wonder if French market reactions to the announcements of interim publications exhibit significantly different characteristics from those observed for quarterly releases in other countries. This can only be appreciated through a differential analysis of French market response to interim and annual announcements.     

The nature of credit rationing in the United Kingdom mortgage market

This paper addresses the problem of how to estimate market demand functions for finance in the presence of rationing within the context of the U.K. house mortgage market. Two distinct approaches are outlined. The first, and more traditional, focuses on American studies in which non-price terms are assumed to adjust so as, in combination with price, to produce market clearing. In contrast, the approach used in the present study conjectures that non-interest-rate terms are varied so as to discriminate among borrowers, satisfying some but leaving the market uncleared. Empirical tests, using U.K. data, offer some support for this alternative approach. The paper offers some thoughts on credit rationing, and outlines possible avenues for further research into this important and current topic.     

The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for quantitative easing

We investigate the information content of financial variables as signalling devices of two abnormal inflationary regimes: (1) low inflation or deflation, and (2) high inflation. Specifically, we determine the information content of equity and house prices, private credit volumes, and sovereign and corporate bond yields, for 11 advanced economies over the past three decades, using both signalling extraction and logit modelling. The outcomes show that high asset prices more often signal high inflation than low inflation/deflation. However, in some countries, high asset prices and low bond yields are a significant indicator of low inflation or deflation as well. The transmission time of financial developments to inflation can be quite long (up to 8 quarters). For monetary policy, these findings imply that stimulating asset prices through Quantitative Easing (QE) can effectively influence inflation, but that the effects are quite uncertain, both regarding timing and direction.     

The impact of central clearing on the market for single-name credit default swaps

In this article, we revisit the impact of the voluntary central clearing scheme on the CDS market. In order to address the endogeneity problem, we use a robust methodology that relies on dynamic propensity-score matching combined with generalized difference-in-differences. Our empirical findings show that central clearing results in a small increase in CDS spreads (ranging from 14 to 19 bps), while there is no evidence of an associated improvement in CDS market liquidity and trading activity or of a deterioration in the default risk of the underlying bond. These results suggest that the increase in CDS spreads can be mainly attributed to a reduction in CDS counterparty risk.     

The quality of credit ratings: A two-sided market perspective

This paper presents a formal model of a credit rating agency. I study the consequences of the transition from an “investor-pays” model to an “issuer-pays” model on the quality standard of credit ratings chosen by the agency. I find that such a transition is likely to generate a degradation of the quality standard, which may fall below the socially efficient level. Finally, I discuss empirical implications and several reform proposals to the business model of credit rating agencies.     

The effect of human resource reputation signals on share prices: An event study

Using an event study methodology, the authors examine whether human resource reputation announcements in the business press (such as companies being cited as the “best for women”) affect the share prices of these companies. They find partial support for the assertion that favorable HR reputation signals have a positive effect on share prices. One signal, being named as a “best company for working mothers,” was associated with a positive return around the announcement date indicating that this signal affects estimates of the future earnings of the company. Explanations for these findings and implications for research and practice are discussed. © 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Forecasting category sales and market share for wireless telephone subscribers: a combined approach

The ability to forecast market share remains a challenge for many managers especially in dynamic markets, such as the telecommunications sector. In order to accommodate the unique dynamic characteristics of the telecommunications market, we use a multi-component model, called MSHARE. Our method involves a two-phase process. The first phase consists of three components: a projection method, a ring down survey methodology and a purchase intentions survey. The predictions from these components are combined to forecast category sales for the wireless subscribers market. In the second phase, market shares for the various brands are generated using the forecast of the number of subscribers that are obtained in Phase 1 and the share predictions from the ring down methodology. The proposed methodology produces the minimum Relative Absolute Error for each market as compared to the forecasts from each individual component in the first phase. The value of the proposed model is illustrated by its application to a real world scenario. The managerial implications of the proposed model are also discussed.     

Probability of default in collateralized credit operations for small business

The paper examines how the collateral affects the probability of default for small firms. We present a stylized theoretical model to derive the relationship between the level of collateral and subsequent loan default. We find that the probability of default is negatively correlated with the level of collateral, which is intuitive. Subsequently, we test this relationship by using a proprietary database of collateralized loans of small Brazilian enterprises.     

Costs of short-term credit for small and large firms

Changes in costs of credit for small and large firms respond differently to economic conditions and the markets are segmented. Costs for small firms are less responsive to changing economic conditions. Small firms borrow via credit card loans and from banks. Dynamic models prove the costs of funds are negative functions of quantities borrowed and positive functions of the Fed funds rate. During recessions, the decline in funds’ prices to large firms is greater than the reductions to small firms. Large firms benefit to a greater extent than small firms when prices of credit are changing.     

The informational content of the shape of utility functions: financial strategic behavior

Recently, Pennings and Smidts (2003) showed a relationship between organizational behavior and the global shape of the utility function. Their results suggest that the shape of the utility function may be related to ‘higher‐order’ decisions. This research examines the relationship between financial strategic decisions and the global shape of the utility function of real decision makers. We assess the shape of utility functions of portfolio managers and show that the global shape is related to their strategic asset allocation. The findings demonstrate the informational content of the shape of utility functions in the context of financial strategic behavior. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tradability,closeness to market prices,and expected profit: their measurement for a binomial model of options pricing in a heterogeneous market

A reliable method of options pricing in real time would help various players, including hedgers and speculators, to make informed decisions. In this study, we develop an extensive simulation with multiple business environments, which includes the use of real data from the S&P 500 Index between the years 2010–2017 for the 30 days prior to expiration of the options. Forecasted tradability is computed based on the SH model: a theoretical model of real-time options pricing that takes into account players’ heterogeneity with regard to their willingness to accept offers proposed by the opposing player. The quality of the model is examined for the scenario in which the model players are speculators who act against the real market prices. We show that the equilibrium prices predicted by the SH model are close to the market prices (a deviation of up to approx. 3%) in an In-The-Money environment. Additionally, the tougher the players (i.e., the greater their level of unwillingness to accept a bid from the opposing player), the higher the average tradability. We also find that the level of willingness of the players has a greater effect on tradability than does option moneyness or the market trend.

     

Dividend announcements under varying market conditions: The case of specially designated dividends

In this study the author examines differences in the behavior of stock returns surrounding the announcements of the specially designated dividends (SDDs) between bull markets and bear markets. Results show that SDDs declared during bull markets have a significantly higher positive effect on stock prices than those declared during bear markets. This evidence, new to literature, indicates that SDDs declared during bull markets are viewed by the market as more favorable than those declared during bear markets.