通货膨胀与房地产市场的相关性分析

本文通过对我国居民消费价格指数与房地产市场的价格指数之间的相关性进行统计分析,结果表明两者之间存在显著的正相关。文章进而分析了我国近年来房地产市场的发展对CPI的主要影响渠道,并指出房地产市场的理性调整有利于控制当前的通货膨胀。     

Momentum in Residential Real Estate

This paper examines whether there is return momentum in residential real estate in the U.S. Case and Shiller (American economic review 79(1):128–137, 1989) document evidence of positive return correlation in four U.S. cities. Similar to Jegadeesh and Titman’s (Journal of finance 56:699–720, 1993) stock market momentum paper, we construct long-short zero cost investment portfolios from more than 380 metropolitan areas based on their lagged returns. Our results show that momentum of returns in the U.S. residential housing is statistically significant and economically meaningful during our 1983 to 2008 sample period. On average, zero cost investment portfolios that buy past winning housing markets and short sell past losing markets earn up to 8.92% annually. Our results are robust to different sub-periods and more pronounced in the Northeast and West regions. While zero cost portfolios of residential real estate indices is not a tradable strategy, the implications of our results can be useful for builders, potential home owners, mortgage originators and traders of real estate options.     

Volatilities and Momentum Returns in Real Estate Investment Trusts

We examine the relation of time-varying idiosyncratic risk and momentum returns in REITs using a GARCH-in-mean model and incorporate liquidity risk in the asset pricing model. This is important because illiquidity may be more severe for REITs due to the nature of their underlying assets. We find that momentum returns display asymmetric volatility, i.e., momentum returns are higher when volatility is higher. Additionally, we find evidence that REITs with lowest past returns (losers) have higher idiosyncratic risks than those with highest past returns (winners) and that investors require a lower risk premium for holding losers’ idiosyncratic risks. Therefore, although losers have higher levels of idiosyncratic risks, their low risk premia cause low returns, which contribute to momentum. Lastly, we find a positive relation between REITs’ momentum return and turnover.     

江西省房地产市场发展与房地产金融风险关系实证研究

金融危机爆发后,世界主要经济体普遍实行了宽松货币政策。在这一背景下,我国房地产市场强势反弹,销量涨幅创历史新高,成交均价一路走高。2009年,江西省房地产市场实现逆势上扬行情,呈现出投资增速逐月回升,供给面积低位增长,销售规模大幅上升,成交均价一路走高的运行特点。在分析江西省房地产市场运行特点的基础上,本文从实证角度考察了房地产市场发展与金融支持之间的关系。实证结果表明,房地产市场的发展、房价的上涨与金融支持之间具有相互促进、互为因果的密切关系。在此基础上进一步分析了房地产市场发展中隐含的金融风险,并提出相应的对策建议。     

美国房地产市场开始触底

2007年以来,源于美国房地产市场的次贷危机席卷全球,并由金融危机逐步演变为经济危机.虽然目前美国经济出现了明显的底部迹象,但对于美国房地产市场未来的走势人们还存在着较大分歧.     

房地产金融对房地产市场发展的影响研究：北海实证

本文通过向量自回y-5模型（VAR）研究房地产金融对房地产市场的实际影响。选取北海市金融类和房地产市场类等4项指标,建立2个VAR模型系统;利用脉冲相应函数和方差分解方法,分析信贷市场指标变化对房地产市场供需影响的时滞、持续时间及作用强度。结果表明：北海房地产金融市场与房地产市场无论在长期还是短期都存在均衡关系,两者具有一定程度的共生性。基于以上分析,提出相应的政策建议。     

人口负增长对延边州房地产市场和地产金融的影响研究

根据第七次全国人口普查结果,延边州总人口为1941700人,与2010年第六次全国人口普查相比减少281563人,下降12.66％,年均下降1.34％.本文通过对人口负增长下延边州房地产市场和房地产金融的变化的梳理,以期探讨人口负增长对房地产市场的具体影响机制与效果,从而为延边地区房地产市场和房地产金融稳健可持续发展提...     

Liquidity and Information Asymmetry in the Real Estate Market

George Akerlof??s asymmetric information theory explains why lemons are rarely, if at all, transacted. We extend his theory to explain liquidity in the second-hand real estate market. The idea is to decompose real estate into two components: land and the building structure. While sellers may know more about the quality of their structures than buyers, information on land, predominantly its locational attributes, is much more transparent. Without assuming any credit constraints or loss aversion behaviour, our information asymmetry model shows that: 1) the liquidity of real estate increases with the share of its land value; 2) there is a positive relationship between real estate prices and turnover rates when land supply is more inelastic than the supply of structures; 3) the positive relationship is stronger when the land value component gets smaller; and 4) while the availability of first-hand real estate may divert demand away from the second-hand market, such a substitution effect is weaker when the land value component is large. These four implications were confirmed with panel data analysis using Hong Kong??s housing transactions from 1992 to 2008 across 50 districts.     

On the Earnings and Price Momentum Strategies: Evidence from European Real Estate Firms

We test the performance and interaction between earnings and price momentum for European real estate companies by first making use of decile portfolios sorted on the previous 3- to 12-month returns, standardized unexpected earnings and a combination of both. Then, the relation is tested on a risk-adjusted basis employing a 3-factor asset pricing model and Fama and Macbeth (1973) cross-sectional regression analyses. Our analyses reveal several critical findings: (1) both price and earnings momentum are effective for European firms, the effect being stronger for the UK than EU firms; (2) unlike U.S. REITs, price momentum seems to dominate drift for European firms; (3) there is weak evidence for positive interaction between drift and price momentum, contrary to the U.S. evidence; (4) the performance of momentum strategies depends on the state of the economy, while controlling for systematic factors; (5) idiosyncratic risk of real estate property firms may influence the returns on drift and momentum factors.     

我国房地产市场现状及运行特点——以大连市房地产市场为例

2010年4月国务院出台的针对房地产市场的国10条,可以说是近几年实施房地产调控政策以来最严厉的政策组合,包括政府政策、金融监管、交易税费、土地交易等多方面。在我国当前形势下、房地产走势已不再是一个单纯的经济现象,它已经和很多社会、民生问题甚至国家的经济、金融体系安全问题紧密地联结在一起。     

Another Look at the East Asian Miracle

This article examines the main ingredients of the East Asiansuccess story in each subphase of its post-war transition growthprocess. It focuses mainly on Taiwan (China), with comparativeside glances at the Republic of Korea. The initial conditionsfacing the region were favorable, especially in Taiwan (China).The early import substitution subphase was unusually mild andcontributed to the emergence of strong linkages between agriculturaland nonagricultural activities. Subsequently, flexible labormarkets, human capital policies, and major macro and structuralpolicy reforms culminated in an increasingly export-orientedindustrialization effort. Once labor surpluses were ultimatelyexhausted, government policies accommodated Taiwan (China)'sentry into the technological era of the 1970s and 1980s. Duringthe past four decades of a signally successful transition growtheffort, public policies in East Asia have consistently accommodatedthe changing needs of the economy, rather than guide its pathdirectly.     

Another New Look at the Monday Effect

We link up the findings of Abraham and Ikenberry (1994) and Wang, Li and Erickson (1997) by showing that negative Monday returns concentrate on days 18 to 26 of a month and they can be completely explained in the statistical sense by the negative returns on the previous Friday. More importantly, we observe a 'week–four effect'. Not only the returns on Mondays but also returns on other days are lower during the fourth week of a month. We suggest that liquidity selling by individual investors may be the reason.     

房地产金融属性的表现及经济含义:以美国房地产市场为例

随着金融自由化及经济资本化的深入,房地产金融属性的增强成为以美国为代表的全球房地产市场发展最大的特点。房地产的异质性被金融属性抹平,而波动的同步性增强,全球房地产市场首次同步繁荣,甚至开始脱离实体经济而自我膨胀。房地产金融属性的增强,使其更容易产生繁荣-萧条式的大幅波动。因此,需适当控制房地产金融属性。     

Corporate Real Estate and Stock Market Performance

An interesting question in corporate real estate literature is whether real estate can improve the stock market performance of property-intensive non-real estate firms. Using a data set comprising 75 non-real estate corporations that own at least 20 percent properties, this paper empirically assesses and compares the pair-wise return, total risk, systematic risk and Jensen abnormal return performance of composite (with real estate) and hypothetical business (without real estate) firms. We employed Morgan Stanley Capital International world equity index instead of a local market index to provide some insights into the performance of the local market relative to the global market during the 1997–2001 volatile periods experienced by many Asian countries. Our results suggest the inclusion of real estate in a corporate portfolio appears to be associated with lower return, higher total risk, higher systematic risk and poorer abnormal return performance. It is therefore likely that non-real estate firms own properties for other reasons in addition to seeking improvement in their stock market performance. Further research is needed to explore the main factors contributing to corporate real estate ownership by non-real estate firms.     

房地产市场的波动性研究：基于中美房地产市场的GARCH模型分析

GARCH模型是近20年发展起来的时间序列模型,其在金融市场的预测与决策方面有着重要的作用。本文运用GARCH类模型对中美两国房地产市场的收益率波动进行了分析,并得到了以下结论：房地产市场收益的方差具有不稳定性,且存在着＂波动聚集性＂;具体就我国而言,我国的房地产市场并不存在杠杆效应。     

房地产评估业应该打破垄断

资产评估事务所(或具有资产评估资格的会计师事务所,以下简称事务所)能否对房地产进行评估,一直是注册评估师行业内比较关注的一个问题.财政部和原国家国有资产管理局曾两次发文对此问题予以明确.但由于房地产和土地主管部门坚持认为只有取得经他们认可的资格后事务所方可从事上述业务,故事务所对此一直抱有疑虑,社会各界对此认识更是模糊不清.下面介绍的这个案例,就是在这样的背景下发生的.     

The Capital Structure Puzzle: Another Look at the Evidence

Since the formulation of the Miller and Modigliani propositions over 60 years ago, financial economists have been debating whether there is such a thing as an optimal capital structure—a proportion of debt to equity that can be expected to maximize long‐run shareholder value. Some finance scholars have followed M&M in arguing that both capital structure and dividend policy are irrelevant in the sense of having no significant, predictable effects on corporate market values. Another school of thought holds that corporate financing choices reflect an attempt by corporate managers to balance the tax shields and disciplinary benefits of more debt against the costs of financial distress. Still another theory says that companies do not have capital structure targets, but instead follow a financial pecking order in which retained earnings are generally preferred to outside financing, and debt is preferred to equity when outside funding is required. In reviewing the evidence that has accumulated since M&M, the authors argue that taxes, bankruptcy and other contracting costs, and information costs all appear to play important roles in corporate financing decisions. While much, if not most, of the evidence is consistent with the idea that companies set target leverage ratios, there is also considerable support for the pecking order theory's contention that managements are willing to deviate widely from their targets for long periods of time. According to the authors, the key to reconciling the different theories—and thus to solving the capital structure puzzle—lies in achieving a better understanding of the relation between corporate financing stocks (that is, total amounts of debt and equity) and flows (which security to issue at a particular time). Even when companies have leverage targets, it can make sense to deviate from those targets depending on the costs associated with moving back toward the target. And as the authors argue in closing, a complete theory of capital structure must take account of these adjustment costs and how they affect expected deviations from the targets.     

Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

This paper solves numerically the intertemporalconsumption and portfolio choiceproblem of an infinitely-lived investor whofaces a time-varying equity premium.The solutions we obtain are very similarto the approximate analytical solutionsof Campbell and Viceira (1999), except atthe upper extreme of the state spacewhere both the numerical consumption andportfolio rules flatten out.We also consider a constrained version ofthe problem in which the investor facesborrowing and short-sales restrictions.These constraints bind when the equitypremium moves away from its mean in eitherdirection, and are particularly severe forrisk-tolerant investors. The constraints havesubstantial effects on optimalconsumption, but much more modest effects onoptimal portfolio choice in theregion of the state space where they are notbinding.     

Office Capitalization Rates: Real Estate and Capital Market Influences

Focusing on the office capitalization rate, the central objective of this article is to shed light on two sets of issues that have not yet been fully researched. The first involves the importance of local-fixed and time-variant components of the office capitalization rate, and the significance of persistence in its time trends. The second centers on the relative importance of local office markets and the national capital market in shaping the various components of the office capitalization rate. Extensive econometric analysis of capitalization-rate series employed to address these issues highlights the existence of both local fixed and time-variant effects, while indicating differential persistence of time trends across markets. Moreover, such analysis uncovers the pivotal role of specific local office-market traits and the lesser role of national capital-market features in determining office capitalization-rate variations. Such findings on the role of local influences may provide a richer foundation for asset valuation and investment practices.     

房地产市场治理的国际比较

2010年9月底,国务院继4月份新政后对房地产市场存在回暖迹象的部分城市进行二次调控,效果却不理想。本文综合分析德国稳定房地产市场和新加坡治理房地产泡沫的成功经验,以及日本上世纪90年代房地产泡沫破灭的教训,结合国内经济发展和金融市场背景,提出房地产市场需要脱离支柱行业的产业转型、构建充足保障安居房并制定完善的分配制度、建立完善的风险预警机制、实行分税制以抑制投资性需求、兼顾中产阶级购房问题等方面的政策建议。