Bilateral trade between China and Canada: trends,patterns, and comparisons

Using data from the United Nations Comtrade database Standard International Trade Classification Revision III, this study examined major trends of and changes in the bilateral trade between Canada and China. It investigated issues related to trade intensities, intra‐industry trade, comparative advantages, and trade complementarity in the two countries. The results showed that there has been a significant increase in bilateral trade between the two countries over the past decade or so. However, the estimated trade intensity indices suggest that Canada and China are trading less than they should. On the other hand, analysis using revealed comparative advantage indices suggests that there is no overlap in comparative advantage between two countries. Further, the trade complementarity indices show that Canada's export structure is compatible with China's import structure and at the same time, China's export structure is also compatible with Canada's import structure. Thus, there is a high potential to increase bilateral trade between Canada and China.     

The incentive for export subsidies under imperfect competition

By taking into account factor market interactions, the theory of strategic trade policies can consistently explain the fact that less efficient countries offer greater export subsidies to the most technologically advanced industries because in these countries there may be greater differences in efficiency of production technology between industries than in more efficient countries.     

Trade flows and differences between countries

Conclusions In answer to the question of whether trade between countries is motivated by differences or by similarities, the results of this paper indicate that it is predominantly differences and not similarities which lead countries to trade with each other. Greater differences in agriculture land per capita, per capita income, the urban proportion of the population, and temperature results in general in greater trade between two countries, everything else the same. The traditional theory of trade based on relative price differences is, therefore, supported. The exception is the measure of differences in the crude birth rates. Apparently, the more similar are the crude birth rates for two countries, the greater will be the amount of trade. This exception could arise from multicollinearity, from crude birth rate differences having effects systematically opposite to other differences, or from Linder's hypothesis that trade is most intensive between similar countries. The author is indebted to Professors Edward Ames, Niels Bolwig, J?rgen Gelting, Svend Hylleberg, Chung Lee, Delbert Snider and Charles Staley for helpful comments. Remaining errors are the author's responsibility.     

Forces of economic growth in China,India, and other Asian countries

This paper applies different approaches to modelling sources of economic growth from time series and panel data sets for 10 Asian countries over the period 1970–2010. After being subjected to fragility tests, the cross‐country estimates indicate that investment, together with policy variables and openness to trade, explains about 90 per cent of the estimated 3.2 per cent steady‐state growth rate for the region. Regional growth policy points to expanding trade, supporting financial development, and maintaining sound investment environments. Although country‐specific growth effects vary, the results imply that different estimation methods, combined with fragility tests, can help establish stronger links between growth theory and policy advice.     

Dynamic effects of institutions on firm-level exports

The gap between theoretically predicted trade patterns and actual trade suggests that our understanding of what shapes trade patterns is incomplete. Institutional barriers may be one factor behind this gap, and recent research suggests that institutions are a greater obstacle to trade than tariffs. Using detailed firm-level data, we analyze how institutional quality in recipient countries affects exports by Swedish firms. Our results suggest that weak institutions in recipient countries make exports to these countries less likely and that exports to countries with weak institutions are characterized by relatively short duration and small volume. Analyzing long-term trade flows, we identified a learning process where exporters become less dependent on institutional quality in the target economy over time. More specifically, in addition to previous research that emphasize learning related to knowledge about the contracting partner and rule of law, we extend this notion and show that there is also a learning process where firms acquire knowledge about the general business climate. When learning about the contractual partner and business institutions in recipients countries takes place, exports increase relatively quickly during the first 2 years of exports and thereafter levels out. Hence, firms that are initially sensitive to weak institutions, start small, and learn how to handle foreign institutions are likely to be most successful in maintaining long-term relationships with foreign markets.     

贸易摩擦、贸易壁垒与中国对外直接投资研究

本文利用中国与90个国家之间的面板数据,对贸易壁垒与对外直接投资进行实证分析后表明,贸易壁垒对中国对外直接投资具有两种效应:一是空间效应,即对中国实施贸易壁垒的国家较未实施的国家会显著引发中国对该国的对外直接投资;二是时间效应,贸易壁垒实施5～7年后将显著诱发中国对外直接投资。     

Insecure Resources,Bilateral Trade,and Endogenous Predation: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Conflict and Trade

This article analyzes how interstate conflict over resources affects the incentives to trade and how greater trade openness affects the endogenous decisions of arming by enemy countries. We identify conditions under which there is trade between two adversary countries and show that each adversary's arming affects domestic welfare in three different ways. The first is an export-revenue effect, which increases welfare because arming causes export revenue to go up (i.e., there is an arming-induced terms-of-trade improvement). The second is a resource-predation effect, which increases welfare because arming increases the appropriation of a rival country's resource input to produce a consumption good. The third is an output-distortion effect, which reduces welfare because arming lowers the domestic production of civilian goods. Based on these effects, we show circumstances in which greater trade openness reduces the intensity of arming. We also discuss the implications of resource security asymmetry for conflict and trade.     

Trade,imitative ability and intellectual property rights

Economic theory suggests some ambiguity concerning the effects of strengthening intellectual property rights (IPRs) on international trade. Here we extend the empirical literature that attempts to resolve this ambiguity. We use panel data to estimate a gravity equation for manufacturing exports, in aggregate and by industry, from five advanced countries to 69 developed and developing countries over the period 1970–1999. In particular, we use threshold regression techniques to determine whether the impact of IPR protection on trade depends upon the level of development, imitative ability and market size of the importing country. We confirm the importance of the importers’ imitative ability, and also find some evidence of a role for market size in this relationship. The individual industries present different patterns of thresholds and coefficients, with Total Manufacturing closely reflecting that of Fabricated Metal Products.     

ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE AND INTERNATIONAL INTERACTIONS : THE IMPACT OF MARKET POWER ON DYADIC CONFLICT AND COOPERATION

This article presents a theoretical approach to analysing how a country with market power could affect international relations. The liberal view and trade‐conflict model claim that if countries seek to protect their trade gains, trade will reduce conflict between pairs of countries, designated “actors” and “targets”. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of market power on the gains from trade. Once the distribution of trade gains is changed between countries, the conflict and cooperation relationships between countries will also alter. We apply the trade‐conflict model to derive two propositions as follows: (1) the more monopoly power over exports a monopolistic target has, the greater the amount of actor‐to‐target conflict; (2) the more monopsony power over imports a monopolistic target has, the greater the amount of actor‐to‐target conflict. To summarise, these hypotheses will predict that a country with market power reaps the gains from trade and will exhibit less conflict and more cooperation, whilst the country that is exploited will exhibit more conflict and less cooperation.     

Productivity,Trade, and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis

Recognizing that gains historically attributed to trade capture instead the roles of institutions and geography, we estimate the relationship between labor productivity and trade for a panel of countries, 1980 to 2000. We use real and nominal openness as measures of trade. The endogeneity of trade and institutional quality is accounted for with instruments. Our trade instrument is based on a theoretically motivated gravity equation and uses a more comprehensive data set than in related studies. Fixed‐ and random‐effects and system‐GMM panel estimation methods address potential biases associated with cross‐section estimations. We find a robust relationship between real openness and labor productivity from the 1990s. Countries that trade more generate higher levels of productivity, supporting an institutional theory of growth. We find evidence that countries with low‐quality institutions benefit from openness to trade and that the positive effect of trade on labor productivity is lower for more populated countries.     

Does Gender Inequality Reduce Growth in Sub‐Saharan African and Arab Countries?*

Abstract: This paper uses 1974 to 2001 panel data for 31 sub‐Saharan African and 10 Arab countries and Arellano–Bond estimations to empirically assess the impact on growth of an important indicator associated with MDG 3; namely the ratio of 15–24‐year‐old literate females to males. Our findings indicate that gender inequalities in literacy have a statistically significant negative effect that is robust to changes in the specification. In addition, it seems that gender inequality has a stronger effect on growth in Arab countries. Interestingly, we find that the interaction between openness to trade and gender inequality has a positive impact. This result suggests that trade‐induced growth may be accompanied by greater gender inequalities.     

How much have been the export products changed from homogeneous to differentiated? Evidence from China, Japan, and Korea

Many international trade theories and evidence suggest that trade in homogeneous and differentiated goods is different, and trade performance depends significantly on the extent of product differentiation. First this paper classifies the three countries' export products using Rauch's [Rauch, J. (1999). Networks versus markets in international trade. Journal of International Economics, 48, 7–35] classification scheme. This paper suggests a sophisticated technique to obtain the extent of product differentiation in a country's export, implied by Dixit and Stiglitz [Dixit, A., & Stiglitz, J. (1977). Monopolistic competition and optimum product variety. The American Economic Review, 67, 297–308] model in which the smaller is the elasticity of substitution between varieties the greater is the extent of product differentiation. This is an attempt to identify the extent of product differentiation in each country's export basket by estimates of the elasticity of substitution. The estimated elasticities of substitution vary across countries. The most interesting empirical finding is that the China's export structure has been rapidly shaped into differentiated products. However the extent of product differentiation in Japan and Korea's exports has relatively less varied.     

The roles of cultural and institutional distance in international trade: Evidence from China's trade with the Belt and Road countries

Cultural distance and institutional distance have been playing increasingly significant roles in international trade. Recently, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China has drawn worldwide attention. This paper examines the roles of cultural distance and institutional distance in China's trade relationship with the Belt and Road (B&R) countries. We estimate the extended gravity model using bilateral trade data at product-level during 2002–2016 between China and 99 trading partners, 38 of which are along the Belt and Road. Using Poisson generalized estimating equations (GEE) econometric methods, we find that firstly, cultural distance and institutional distance inhibit China's bilateral trade with the Belt and Road countries. Secondly, China's bilateral trade with the B&R countries is more sensitive to the change of cultural distance than institutional distance by comparing their beta coefficients. Thirdly, compared to Asian countries on the Belt and Road, bilateral trade flows between China and European countries show less sensitivity to changes in cultural distance, except China's imports from its trading partners. While the trade effects of institutional distance show no difference between China's trade with European countries and Asian countries. Lastly, the announcement of BRI does reduce trade-inhibiting effect of cultural distance on China's trade with the Belt and Road countries, while increase China's exports sensitivity to institutional distance. This study finally suggests relevant cultural exchange driven by the BRI eventually assisting unimpeded trade and deepening the cooperation.     

Income Convergence in African Countries: Evidence from a Stationary Test With Multiple Structural Breaks

This paper examines the catching‐up (stochastic convergence in real per capita income) hypothesis for 52 African countries with respect to the USA. over the 1969‐2011 period, using a highly flexible stationarity test. The empirical results show (i) that all African countries experienced at least one break, switching between catching‐up and divergence paths during the sample period; (ii) that structural breaks tend to coincide with political instability, trade liberalisation policies and terms of trade shocks; (iii) that among the 52 African countries studied, only five lie on the catching‐up path, while the remaining 47 diverge from the USA. Our results show that the economic performance of African countries fall far behind those of the USA and that the economic growth tragedy of Africa continues.     

Contracting out by the public sector: theory, evidence, prospects

Unlike privatization, contracting out (or simply 'contracting')does not generally involve the sale of publicly owned assets.Yet it has been widely used as a mechanism for reform of public-sectorservice provision. Contracting introduces ex-ante competition-competitionfor the market through competitive tendering. This article examinesboth the theory and evidence of contracting by the public sector.It considers the theoretical conditions, such as contractualincompleteness and the ownership pf physical assets, which mayimpede efficient contracting. It also reviews the internationalevidence which suggests that savings in the order of 20 percent are achievable, without sacrificing the quality of serviceprovided. In the UK, savings of between £240m and £280mhave been estimated for contracts let at the central governmentlevel. Substantial savings have also been generated by contractingat the local government level.     

跨境数据流动规则对服务贸易成本的影响

数据流动已成为贸易规则谈判的重要议题。通过构建RTA（区域贸易协定）跨境数据流动规则深度指数和测算双边服务贸易成本，实证分析跨境数据流动规则对服务贸易成本的影响。研究发现，在理论机制上，跨境数据流动规则通过减少监管分歧和促进服务贸易数字化降低服务贸易成本。实证结果表明，缔结跨境数据流动规则和跨境数据流动规则深度的增加均会显著降低服务贸易成本。分规则类型来看，数据便利类条款、数据保护类条款、数据流动类条款和数据例外类条款深度的增加均能降低服务贸易成本；从不同经济发展水平匹配的国家对来看，发展中国家之间、发达国家与发展中国家之间跨境数据流动规则的缔结和规则深度的增加均能降低服务贸易成本。     

Exports of manufactures by developing countries: emerging patterns of trade and location

Developing countries are rapidly increasing their shares ofmanufactured trade, not just in labour-intensive products, butalso in capital- and skill-intensive ones; their shares arerising particularly rapidly in the high-technology area. However,manufactured exports remain highly concentrated in the developingworld, with a few countries dominating all forms of export.Within the successful exporting countries, there are significantdifferences in the 'technology content' of exports. These trendsare difficult to explain with received trade theory, even takinghuman capital into account, or with reference to broad economicpolicies: it is useful to bring in 'learning', along with scaleeconomies, increasing returns, and agglomeration as determinantsof comparative advantage. These factors imply market failures,and so a role for policy in developing genuine comparative advantages.This article suggests that emerging trade and location patternsin the developing work are explained by market imperfectionsand government policies to overcome them.     

产业内贸易理论视角下的中国——东盟双边贸易

随着中国-东盟双边贸易结构的不断调整，产业内贸易所占的比重日益扩大，发展趋势逐渐增强，用产业内贸易理论来解释我国与东盟之间的产业内贸易问题就越来越具有说服力，产业内贸易理论已经成为研究我国与东盟双边贸易关系的一个新视角。     

Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU

In this paper, the impact of the adoption of the euro on the commercial transactions of EMU countries is investigated. It seeks to disentangle the effects of eliminating exchange rate volatility — and those of other policy factors that promote integration — from the influence of the emergence of the European currency union. Since EMU is a relatively new phenomenon, a panel estimation of the gravity equation in a dynamic framework is used in order to capture effects like trade persistence. The main finding is that the adoption of the euro has had a positive but not an exorbitant impact on bilateral trade between European countries (ranging between 9 and 10 per cent). The impact is much lower than that shown in the recent literature on a larger and heterogeneous set of countries. One reason for this divergence seems to be that the euro was adopted after decades of integration policies had already worked through in Europe. JEL no. F4, F15, C230     

Production Structure in the Context of International Trade

This paper deals with the recent empirical phenomenon of intra-industry trade, i.e., trade in similar goods between similar countries. It treats this phenomenon from the point of view of the theory of the structure of production, highlighting the importance of the sequential nature of production and the heterogeneity and specificity of factors of production, as developed by Carl Menger, Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk and their followers of the Austrian School of economics. The reader is first exposed to the historical development of production and capital theory. A simple theory of production structure, along the lines of Austrian economics, is afterwards presented and a useful tool for the analysis of intra-industry trade is developed. In the following discussion of existing theories of intra-industry trade, we make the case for vertical intra-industry specialization, complex manufactured goods and sliced-up production chains across countries. The reader immediately observes the importance of Austrian production structure theory for the analysis of intra-industry trade. We accordingly apply the concepts of the structure of production to intra-industry trade and analyze, in particular, the time- and place-aspects of international production. The concluding section shows the relevance of our approach to intra-industry trade for the analysis of business cycle synchronization across countries, and for the optimum currency areas theory.