Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications

Notwithstanding the current slowdown, the geography and composition of international trade are changing fast. We link a macroeconomic growth model and sectoral computable general equilibrium framework in order to project the world economy forward to the year 2035 and assess to what extent current trends in trade are expected to continue. Constructing fully traceable scenarios based on assumptions grounded in the literature, we are also able to isolate the relative impact of key economic drivers. We find that the stakes for developing countries are particularly high: the emergence of new players in the world economy, intensification of South–South trade and diversification into skill‐intensive activities may continue only in a dynamic economic and open trade environment. Current trends towards increased regionalisation may be reversed, with multilateral trade relationships gaining in importance. Hypothetical mega‐regionals could slow down, but not frustrate the prevalence of multilateralism. Continuing technological progress is likely to have the biggest impact on future economic developments around the globe. Population dynamics are influential as well: for some countries, upskilling will be crucial; for others, labour shortages may be addressed through migration. Several developing countries would benefit from increased capital mobility; others will only diversify into dynamic sectors, when trade costs are further reduced.     

EU integration of transition countries: Overlap of requisites and remaining tasks

Transition and reorientation towards Western Europe have been the two decisive challenges for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) since 1989. Whereas in the early 1990s the transition from the central planning system to a market economy was the main goal of economic policies, the requirements for closer integration with the Western European countries have since then increasingly gained in importance. How do the two processes overlap? What requirements remain to be met before the candidate countries can join the European Union?     

The future of the ACP countries

The record to date of trade and development cooperation between the European Union and the ACP countries has been rather disappointing. Evidently, neither the non-reciprocal trade preferences granted to the ACP countries nor the support for development projects have led to much progress in terms of economic and social development. Can the implementation of the EU's present reform proposals be expected to safeguard the future of the Lome system and of the ACP countries in the new millenium?     

The mediterranean policy of the EC—The case of agriculture

The production structures of the majority of Mediterranean countries have traditionally been oriented towards the West European market. What effects will the southward enlargement of the EC have on the agricultural sector of the non-candidate Mediterranean countries? What can the EC do to alleviate the problems?     

Tourism and developing countries

The expansion of the tourist industry in developing countries is seen by both the countries themselves and international development organisations as a promising route towards boosting economic development. However, once the benefits and costs to society have been carefully weighed up this route appears very problematic in many cases.     

Regionalisation versus regionalism— Problems of change in the world economy

The distinct trends towards regionalisation in the world economy that could be observed in recent years should not be interpreted merely as the formation of economic blocs or “fortresses”. This would amount to adopting a biased, backward-looking approach that sees only the sombre experiences of the thirties and forties and does not take sufficient account of the different challenges of the post-war period.     

Economic relations with the Third World

While foreign policy as well as economic, ideological and purely humanitarian considerations all continue to play a role in economic relations between the CMEA countries and the Third World, a shift in the relative weights of these various aspects has become discernible in recent years. What conclusions can be drawn as to the future behaviour of the CMEA countries towards the developing countries?     

Interdependence and economic development in North and South

In the past four or five years politicians in the industrialized countries and research workers as well have been making increasing use of the term “interdependence” as quintessential to the economic and political relations between the North and the South. What does this term mean? Can the extent and the effects of this interdependence be quantified?     

Developing countries rethink their approach to foreign investment

Many observations made in recent years suggest that even the developing countries which were previously known to have a sceptical approach to direct foreign investment have begun to take a fresh look at the situation. Undoubtedly, experiences with domestic state-owned enterprises and general doubts concerning centralised economic control coupled with the evidence provided by other countries pursuing an open policy towards foreign investment have proved to be crucial factors in bringing many developing countries to see in a new light the contribution private-sector investment can make to economic growth.     

International trade in oil: Effects on the balance of payments and exchange rates

Oil price increases and the persistent OPEC current account surpluses were considered the main problems of economic development in many industrial and developing countries long after the first oil crisis. Since 1983, however, the OPEC surpluses have been completely absorbed and the official base price of petroleum has fallen for the first time in twenty years, although admittedly in terms of a “strong” dollar. Has the serious damage suffered by oil-importing countries in the two oil shocks been completely neutralised, or are the economies of many countries still strongly influenced by the actions and decisions of the OPEC countries?     

Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant

This paper uses a global computable general equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries – the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic and Turkey – to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms as the inflows of refugees increase the size of their populations. The war has undermined progress towards deeper regional trade integration, thus adding to varying degrees to the direct costs sustained by the Levant economies and, in the cases of Syria and Iraq, doubling their welfare losses. All Levant countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra‐Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency. The average welfare effects are not indicative of the distributional effects of war within countries.     

Capital Cities in the New EU States—Economic Status Quo and Current Trends

In the course of the economic catching-up process of the new EU states, the capital cities of the countries in central and eastern Europe were the economically most successful regions in their countries. How distinct are economic disparities between the capitals and the rest of the countries today? What were the determinants of the related economic developments? And do current economic trends support the leading position of the capital cities in the new member states?      

Peace and Economic Interdependence in the Middle East

Can economic interdependence pacify the Middle East? While Middle Eastern countries have, for the most part, avoided the global trend of regionalism, this study provides empirical evidence that Middle Eastern countries with significant trade ties to other countries in the region do cooperate more and fight less. In addition to confirming the liberal notion of peace through trade, this study shows that several conditions outlined by the selectorate theory of political survival must be fulfilled if economic interdependence in the Middle East is to be achieved. A case study outlining Israeli and Turkish economic cooperation is used to show the selectorate model's regional compatibility. The regional applicability of the selectorate theory leads us to conclude that politically liberal countries are more likely to maintain economic relations with one another than with autocratic ones. Since liberal countries will be more economically interdependent with one another they will also be more peaceful towards one another. Ultimately, then, this study concludes that political liberalisation is one way of enhancing regional economic interdependence and consequently the prospects for a more peaceful Middle East.     

Aid policy of the industrial countries

Time and again, and in the more recent past during the UNCTAD Ill-Conference, the less developed countries (LDCs) have found fault with the industrial countries’ declining contribution towards the economic development of the Third World. The question is now whether the future will bring a change of this tendency which has shown itself for a number of years.     

Overcoming the Russian transformation crisis

Russia's attempts at transformation into a market economy have so far resulted in a prolonged and steep economic decline. This is in stark contrast to developments in other formerly socialist countries where an initial period of economic decline was followed by strong growth. What are the reasons behind the adverse development of the Russian economy? What policy changes are required to bring Russia stability, growth and prosperity?     

Western aid and trade policy trends

The Third Development Decade of the United Nations opened with a promising outlook for the developing countries. The economic situation of the OECD countries had improved during 1979 and the “North-South dialogue” seemed to be making progress. But the further course of 1980 and the subsequent years revealed that the extent and long-term effects of the slump in world economic activity had been seriously underestimated. A large number of developing countries continue to be heavily dependent on development aid. The following article outlines current trends in aid and the likely prospects for the future.     

The long-term prospects for world development

The increasing interdependence of the world economy requires the development of new approaches to policy-making. Nineteen OECD member countries and the Commission of the European Communities therefore decided to take part in a three-year (1976–1978) research project on the long-term prospects for world economic development and in the attempt to work out a general framework for the economic and social policies in the industrialised countries. Which are the conclusions and results of this research project, which has come to be known as INTERFUTURES?     

How Desirable is the South Asian Free Trade Area? A Quantitative Economic Assessment

The proliferation of preferential trading agreements (PTAs) in different regions of the world has been a significant development over the last two decades. South Asian countries have been slowly moving towards a South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) in recent years. The desirability of SAFTA has been questioned by some observers recently. Will SAFTA create gains for its members or not? Is it better for South Asian countries to promote non‐discriminatory trade liberalisation rather than SAFTA? The main objective of this paper is to address the above questions, especially the desirability of SAFTA, using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. From the existing empirical and theoretical studies, we have identified three viewpoints on the desirability (or viability) of SAFTA: pessimistic, optimistic, and moderate. The results from two policy scenarios (unilateral liberalisation and SAFTA) confirm the pessimistic view by showing that unilateral liberalisation would benefit South Asian countries much more than preferential liberalisation (SAFTA). In fact, under preferential liberalisation, small countries in the region would gain little or even lose. The present political climate in South Asia also seems to support the pessimistic view.     

Southern Europe facing the single market’s completion

The European Community is now starting the final run-up towards the completion of the single internal market by the end of 1992 and member countries are currently involved in consultations at inter-governmental conferences on the creation of economic and monetary union, and on political union. This provides an appropriate opportunity of looking at what belonging to the Community has meant so far to its new members of Greece, Portugal and Spain, and at what their chances are for the future in the light of these developments. What have their entry into the EC and the Single European Act meant to Greece, Portugal and Spain, and what lessons ought to be learned from that?     

The role of China's aid and ODI in the economic growth of African countries

Has external capital, such as foreign aid and foreign direct investment (FDI), been able to help the economic growth in host countries? Our paper examines the effects of China's aid and its overseas direct investment (ODI) on economic growth in 47 African countries from 2003 to 2013. We find that China's aid has significant positive effects on African economic growth. However, China's ODI plays no major role in African countries' economic growth. In addition, the relationship between aid and growth varies according to the different categories of aid, and its marginal contribution is nonlinear.