流动性约束与货币政策的资产价格效应

本文在新凯恩斯主义分析框架下,基于一个动态随机模型探讨了代理人消费流动性约束下的货币政策的资产价格效应,得到下列结论：资产价格波动通过财富效应影响代理人的消费。以利率为操作目标的最优货币政策应对股价、房价等资产价格波动做出反应,而其反应强度依赖于受流动性约束的代理人所占的比重。由于资产价格波动导致了流动性约束的时变性,最优利率规则对股价、房价等资产价格波动的最优权重也具有时变性。本文的实证分析表明,我国央行对房价和股价波动的利率调整具有时变性,以及此次金融危机爆发期间显现的这种时变性特征,与本文理论分析结果相吻合。     

The Bank Lending Channel and Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from European Banks

There exist two main channels of the monetary transmission mechanism: the interest rate and the bank lending channel. This paper focuses on the latter, which is based on the central bank’s actions that affect loan supply and real spending. The supply of loans depends on the monetary policy indicator, which, in most studies, is the real short-term interest rate. The question investigated in this paper is how the operation of the bank lending channel changes when this short-term indicator is allowed to be endogenously determined by the target rate the central bank sets through a monetary rule. We examine the effect that a rule has on the bank lending channel in European banking institutions spanning the period 1999–2009. The expectations concerning inflation and output affect the decision of the central bank for the target rate, which, in turn, affect private sector’s expectations —commercial banks— by altering their loan supply.     

What Do Data Say About Monetary Policy,Bank Liquidity and Bank Risk Taking?

This paper tests empirically the linkage between banks' investment and interbank lending decisions in response to interest rate changes. We draw conclusions for the monetary policy, which uses the interest rate as its main tool. Across European countries we find that the risk-free (i.e. monetary policy) interest rate negatively affects the liquidity retained by banks and the decision of a bank to be a lender in the interbank market. Instead, the interbank interest rate has a positive impact on these decisions. We also find that banks who lend show less risk-taking behaviour and tend to be smaller than those who are borrowers. Most importantly, the risk-free interest rate is positively correlated with loans investment and bank risk-taking behaviour.     

Interbank Lending, Liquidity and Banking Crises

In this paper, we show that abandoning the Diamond and Dybvig hypothesis of a unique bank representing the entire banking system gives rise to the possibility of endogenizing the interbank exchanges. In a system characterized by uncertainty regarding the moment of withdrawal of deposits, access to interbank liquidity decreases the bank risk of failure and bank runs. The possibility, moreover, to invest excess liquidity in the interbank market at a positive interest rate increases expected bank profits.
(J.E.L.: E52, G21).     

财政政策影响银行信贷的渠道分析

在货币政策信贷传导不畅的背景下,本文利用SVAR模型实证检验财政政策对银行信贷的传导渠道.结果显示:税收收入变动可以通过外部融资溢价渠道、抵押品渠道和银行流动性渠道引起银行信贷反向变动;财政支出变动可以通过外部融资溢价渠道和抵押品渠道引起银行信贷同向变动,而通过银行流动性渠道引起银行信贷反向变动.因此,政府应加大财政支出规模和减税降费力度,降低实体经济融资成本,缓解企业融资难融资贵的问题;同时,需注重财政支出和税收收入两大财政政策工具的协调搭配,促进财政政策与房地产市场的良性循环;还要注重财政政策与货币政策在银行层面的协调配合,共同把控市场流动性.     

The Price Impact of Lending Relationships

This study analyzes the impact of bank relationships on a firm's borrowing costs. We find that a firm's borrowing costs decrease with relationship strength, proxied by the share of bank debt provided by the lender. Borrowing costs, however, rise with relationship length. While the increase over time is weak on average, bank‐dependent borrowers face a substantial premium after several relationship years. Switching the lender initially leads to only a small price discount on average. However, the discount is considerable for borrowers that switch and had a strong relationship with their previous lender. Our results suggest that close lending relationships lead to benefits for the firm, but may also imply hold‐up costs in the long term.     

Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints*

We study the infinite‐horizon model of household portfolio choice under liquidity constraints and revisit the portfolio specialization puzzle. We show why the puzzle is robust to several model variations, and argue that positive correlation between earnings shocks and stock returns is unlikely to provide an empirically plausible resolution. We find that relatively small fixed costs for stock market entry are sufficient to deter stockholding because, for a plausible range of parameter values, households can achieve desired consumption smoothing with small or zero holdings of stocks. Such costs could arise from informational considerations, sign‐up fees, and investor inertia.     

次级金融债券的发行对中央银行货币政策的影响

商业银行发行次级金融债券是对商业银行资本金进行补充的有效途径.但是,本文的分析表明,在不完全的市场情况下,由于在商业银行的内部管理层和次级金融债券的购买者之间存在着信息不对称现象,因此,当商业银行发行次级金融债券对其资本金进行补充时,极有可能导致商业银行贷款的过度扩张,进而会导致中央银行的货币政策过度扩张和出现通货膨胀的现象.最后,本文还就我国目前商业银行发行次级金融债券对其资本金进行补充时将给货币政策带来的影响进行了分析.     

跨区域经营监管与银行流动性调整

跨区域经营监管放松后我国的中小银行能主动调整流动性以应对经营风险吗?当前我国的中小银行面对的宏观经济条件和经营环境与20世纪90年代美国各州银行有诸多相似之处。为此,文章利用20世纪90年代美国出台的IBBEA法案作为准自然实验进行实证研究,探究银行是否会主动调整流动性以应对跨区域经营监管政策的放松。结果表明:(1)当跨区域经营监管放松时,美国各州的银行会主动调整流动性;且这个现象在经济条件较差的地区以及流动性风险应对能力强、网点规模大的银行中更显著。(2)调整速度慢的银行会逃离监管放松地区,且逃走后不会提高流动性调整速度。根据上述结论,结合我国地方中小银行流动性监管的实际情况,文章建议监管机构有选择且渐进地放松跨区域监管,优先从经济强、人口多、息差高的地区实施监管放松;同时,还可以选择在网点多和规模较大的中小银行所在地区实施监管放松。     

我国银行类型对货币政策传导影响机制差异化研究

本文选取1993～2008年我国4家国有控股银行,3家政策性银行,10家全国性股份制商业银行数据,考察了我国不同类型银行在货币政策传导机制中的差异化作用.运用协整检验及格兰杰因果检验发现,国有控股银行在对货币政策传导至CPI的影响较为显著,而股份制商业银行对货币供给量有着显著性影响.     

Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies

We use Bulgarian firm-level data to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrialized countries. We test whether internal funds are important for firm investment during the current transition process in Bulgaria. We use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in the case of Bulgaria. Our estimations are based on data for the period 1993–95, prior to the Bulgarian financial crisis in 1996–97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity constrained, and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity constrained. In our view, liquidity constraints can be given a different interpretation in the case of transition economies as compared to Western economies. A more in depth analysis of the data reveals that liquidity constraints, and consequently the access to external funds for Bulgarian firm investment, are to be seen against the background of soft-budget constraints and the failure of the financial system to enforce an efficient allocation of funds. In our view, the lack of liquidity constraints may actually be seen as a sign of financial weakness in the case of Bulgaria.     

西部政策性银行的体系

一、西部政策性银行体系组织结构的框架概述西部政策性银行体系应采取怎样的体系结构，取决于其经济金融制度的特殊性和业务领域、业务对象的特殊性。结合西部特殊的地域经济状况，我们认为，西部政策性银行体系应该是一个由国家和地方两级银行组成的体系：国家一级的政策性银行直属国务院领导，下设若干发展部；地方一级的政策性银行在必要的城市设立与发展部相应的分支机构，针对该地区经济特点和金融需求提供服务。国家级政策性银行主要协调整个西部政策性资金分配工作，地方级则根据具体区域经济状况及时有效地提供金融支持。二、西部政…     

关于解决流动性过剩问题的初步思考

本文从流动性的内涵和外延入手,分析了我国流动性过剩的全球背景和我国流动性过剩的表现及结构性特点,提出了解决流动性过剩,要坚持"市场为主、各方联动、化多为少、化少为多、标本兼治、综合解决"的思路,指出当前重点是解决经常账户顺差过大,流动性过剩的来源问题,以及农村地区资金匮乏,导致资金配置结构性失衡的问题。     

中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性研究

文章基于中国上市银行1998-2013年的数据,采用固定效应模型,对16家中国上市银行信贷行为的周期性进行了研究。研究表明,中国上市银行的信贷行为表现为阶段顺周期性和阶段逆周期性;银行规模对其周期性也有较大影响,规模较小银行或同一银行在规模较小阶段其信贷的逆周期性更显著。由于当前我国政府对宏观经济及银行行为的干预程度较大,银行监管当局所制定监管政策的针对性及有效性将受到很大削弱,因此文章建议政府的宏观经济调控政策与银行的监管政策必须相互协调,这是未来防范经济危机与金融危机,促进中国经济健康持续发展,保持中国金融系统稳健经营的必然选择。     

Entrepreneurship and Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Sweden

Hurst and Lusardi (2004) use a specification with higher‐order polynomials to estimate the relationship between wealth and entrepreneurship. They find evidence against the existence of extensive liquidity constraints in the United States. In this paper, their approach is replicated on Swedish data. A positive relationship between wealth and entrepreneurship is found, which supports the liquidity constraints hypothesis. Alternative methods for handling the endogeneity problem and distinguishing between absolute decreasing risk aversion and liquidity constraints lend further support to the hypothesis. The analysis suggests that there exist liquidity constraints in Sweden, which are possibly more extensive than in the United States.     

Self-employment and Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Finland

Using a large Finnish micro data set, I study how wealth influences the decision to become self-employed. The main result is that personal wealth increases the probability of a person becoming self-employed. This suggests the presence of liquidity constraints.
JEL classification: J 23; M 13     

我国中央银行管理流动性的有效性研究

加强流动性管理,维持流动性的合理适度充裕是中央银行肩负的重要责任。近年来,在内外因素的作用下,我国的流动性问题日益凸显,有效管理流动性成为了持续困扰我国中央银行货币政策操作的一个重大问题。从流动性管理的能力与意愿两个层面对我国中央银行管理流动性的有效性进行分析后得知,我国中央银行既拥有能够有效控制流动性的政策工具,又具有管理流动性的坚定意愿,是能够有效管理流动性的;但是,当前我国中央银行尚缺乏足够有效的日常平滑流动性供给的手段,难以维持一个持续稳定的适度宏观流动性环境,调控流动性客观上容易加大宏观经济波动。因此,我国中央银行还需进一步丰富流动性管理手段,改进流动性管理水平。     

Liquidity Constraints and Business Cycles in Developing Economies

Open economy extensions of real business cycle models, even if generally successful, have met some difficulties replicating a few important stylized facts. In particular, these models tend to predict excessive consumption smoothing and consumption correlations across countries. The observed negative correlation between the trade balance and output in developing countries, the variability of the trade balance and its correlation with the terms of trade have also proven difficult to reproduce. This paper considers how introduction of incomplete markets in the form of liquidity constraints can alleviate these problems. This analysis suggests that adding liquidity constraints helps predict the variability of consumption relative to output. It also improves our estimate of the correlation between the trade balance and output. The model correctly replicates the small positive correlation between the terms of trade and the trade balance. However, it slightly underpredicts the variability of the trade balance when 50% of the consumers are assumed to be liquidity constrained.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E13, E32, E44.