“大胃王”中粮

<正>中粮注定备受世人瞩目,因为宁高宁的加入。中粮的历史可以追溯到1952年,它是中国从事农产品和食品进出口贸易历史最悠久、实力最雄厚的企业,几十年一直是国家小麦、玉米、大米、食糖等大宗农产品贸易的主导者。中粮集团目前下设中粮粮油、     

Imports,monopoly power,profits and exchange rates

This study uses pooled data on U.S. manufacturing industries and on U.S. imports to analyze the level of monopoly power and the restraining influence of the import penetration ratio at the industry level. In general, industries with higher levels of imports have lower levels of monopoly power. In addition, imports have a greater impact on industries with more monopoly power (i.e., higher concentration), even though the level of imports may be lower. Finally, the impact of imports on monopoly power appears to be increasing over time indicating that U.S. manufacturing has become significantly more competitive over the 1961 to 1984 period. (JEL F14, L12)     

Bilateral Trade under Environmental Pressure: Balanced Growth

Based on the advance-retreat course (ARC) model - a growth model under environmental pressure, this paper builds a bilateral import and export trade growth model under environmental pressure. By using the model, the paper analyzes the impacts of innovation on import and export growth, presents a method for computing the optimal levels of imports and exports, derives the limit values of imports and exports, and obtains the limit equilibrium between exports and imports. Finally, a strategy for promoting import and export growth and achieving a bilateral trade balance according to the limit equilibrium is designed. The findings are the following: (i) innovation growth will gradually reduce goods import and export, and services import and export will increase, (ii) the U.S. import–export structure is more reasonable than that of China, and (iii) there is big room for services import and export growth for China.     

On the Role of Imports in Enhancing Manufacturing Exports

Making use of a large panel data set on Italian manufacturing firms, we provide evidence on the effect of imports on the firm's export performance. We distinguish imports of intermediates according to their origin, and we find that inputs sourced from low labour cost countries promote the firm's export activity. Imports from high‐income countries do not significantly contribute to the export orientation of firms, especially when both persistence in export and the possible endogeneity of the import measures are accounted for via system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation of a linear probability model. Our evidence suggests that the impact of imports on the firms’ export activity works through the cost‐saving channel rather than the technology channel.     

The role of imports for exporter performance in Peru

Using highly disaggregated firm‐level customs data for imports and exports in Peru over the 2000–12 period, we explore the relationship between imports of intermediate inputs and firm export performance. The evidence shows that greater use, variety and quality of imported intermediate inputs are significantly correlated with higher export levels and growth, greater market diversification and higher export quality at the firm level, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. Exporter–importers exposed to higher tariffs, and non‐tariff measures import less in total and exhibit lower import variety, whereas those using an advance customs clearance procedure designed to facilitate imports exhibit higher imports and a more diversified bundle of inputs.     

Imports and Exports at the Level of the Firm: Evidence from Belgium

This paper explores a newly available panel dataset merging balance sheet and international trade transaction data for Belgium. Both imports and exports appear to be highly concentrated among few firms and seem to have become more so over time. Focusing on manufacturing, we find that facts previously reported in the literature as applying only to exports actually apply to imports too. We note that the number of trading firms diminishes as the number of export destinations or import origins increases. The same is true if we consider the number of products traded. Our results generally point to a process of self‐selection in both export and import markets. Also, the productivity advantage of exporters reported in the literature may be overstated because imports were not considered. We find that firms that both import and export are the most productive, followed, in descending order, by importers only, exporters only and non‐traders. Our results also show the existence of fixed costs of imports, which appear to be of similar magnitude as those of exports.     

The skills balance in Germany’s import intensity of exports: An input-output analysis

In the decade prior to the economic and financial crisis, Germany’s net exports increased in absolute terms as well as relative to the growing level of import intensity of domestically produced export goods and services. This article analyses the direct and indirect employment effects induced both by exports as well as by of the import intensity of the production process of export goods and services on the skills used. It shows that Germany’s export surpluses led to positive net employment effects. Although the volume of imports of intermediate goods increased and was augmented by the rise in exports, it could not undermine the overall positive employment effect.     

Impact of Trade on Canada's Employment,Skill and Wage Structure

Using newly constructed data for 88 Canadian industries (including primary, manufacturing and services), for 15 years (1992–2007), we analyse the impact of trade and technological change on labour demand, skill structure, wage premiums and welfare in Canada. Results show that export growth has no impact, whereas import growth reduces employment growth. But contrary to popular belief, Canada's job loss due to imports has been very small, only about 6,000 persons annually. China's negative impacts are more pronounced in industries where the share of information and communication technology (ICT) capital is rising fast and among low R&D intensive industries. In terms of skill change, ICT use and real exchange rate appreciation are biased towards high skill workers. Imports from the United States and China are skill‐neutral, whereas imports from Mexico are skill‐upgrading. Overall, neither export nor import growth has an impact on the wage rate. However, had there been no imports from China, the annual wage growth rate of high skill manufacturing workers would have been 0.6 per cent higher. Between 1992 and 2007, there was an annual net gain from the rise in imports at about 0.4 per cent of GDP, in addition to the gains obtained from 1992 import levels vis‐à‐vis autarky.     

Globalization and female labor force participation: The role of trading partners

This paper uses industrial level data from 21 developing and emerging economies over the period of 1995–2013, to analyze the impact of globalization, in particular, trade orientation of industries onto female employment share. The fractional probit estimation reveals that taking cumulative measures of export and import share often camouflages the impact of trade on female employment. The disintegration of export and import share according to their trading partners reveals that exports and imports from the developed world alone contribute to higher female employment. Moreover, it is the low-tech exports to developed countries and high-tech imports from developed countries which results in an increase in female employment. These findings call for the strengthening of trade ties with the developed world, especially when it comes to promoting low-tech exports and high-tech imports. Our results also reveal that the trading links with the developed world can further enhance female employment if developing country possesses a greater pool of educated female labor force.     

进口贸易、生产率与企业创新

本文借助2000-2013年中国工业企业数据库、企业专利数据库与海关进出口贸易数据库,构建了企业产品层面和行业层面的进口价值替代变量,并从生产率的角度,对进口促进我国企业创新的异质性影响进行了系统分析。研究发现,进口对企业创新的影响取决于企业的生产率水平,企业的生产率越高,进口对创新的促进作用越明显,且这种促进作用只在生产率超过中位数水平的企业中显现。同时,机制检验发现,高生产率企业在吸收进口技术溢出和应对进口竞争时更具有比较优势。异质性分析发现,来自不同研发投入国的进口对企业创新的影响并无显著差异,知识产权保护则放大了进口对高生产率企业创新的促进作用和对低生产率企业创新的抑制作用;即使是生产率最低的一般贸易企业,进口也对创新起到了激励作用,而加工贸易企业的创新活动不能从进口中获益。     

The exchange rate, employment and hours: What firm-level data say

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms' exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for a given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Moreover, we show that episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response depending on the degree of external orientation when the switch of export status occurs.     

The exchange rate,employment and hours: What firm-level data say

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms' exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for a given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Moreover, we show that episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response depending on the degree of external orientation when the switch of export status occurs.     

2012贸管新政全解读

2012年,国家进出口贸易管制政策做了新一轮调整,共涉及13个部委联合公告和15个进出口监管证件管理目录。主动调整商品目录＂主动调整商品目录＂是指管制商品范围有变化的目录。进口许可证增设起重运输设备类商品,并将6种商品由工程机械类划分至起重运输设备类,分别为龙门式起重机（编码8426193000）、门式装卸桥（编码8426194100）、集装箱装卸桥（编码8426194200）、有轨巷道堆垛机（编码8427101000）,     

US Economic Sanctions Against China: Who Gets Hurt?

The United States maintains a broad spectrum of economic sanctions against China ranging from export controls to prohibitions on certain imports. Our study finds that, although from a macroeconomic perspective, US sanctions have had no significant adverse effect on China's overall economic growth and trade between the two countries, they do have a negative impact on producers and consumers in both countries. US economic sanctions have hindered technology transfer to China and US investment in China. US restrictions on imports from China have caused deadweight losses for the US due to higher domestic production costs for import substitutes and a reduction in consumption. US export controls have hindered US exports to China and contributed to large US trade deficits with China. The export controls have also caused losses of high‐paid jobs in the United States and benefited competitors from other countries. In addition, US economic sanctions against China have had significant third‐party effects. China's diversification of imports to sources other than the United States may have a long‐term effect on US exports to China even after US economic sanctions against China are lifted.     

石化通用机械进出口及其相关政策走向

石化通用机械行业2003年-2006年进出口连年增长.2007年出口继续快速增长,各主要产品进口有增有减.政策调整将对石化通用机械进出口产生影响.部分产品出口退税率下调.国内投资项目中有154种设备进口不予免税.国家鼓励进口6种石化通用机械.重大技术装备关键件进口实行先征税后返回优惠政策.人民币对美元的汇率升值将会继续,有关企业要积极应对.     

THE IMPACT OF CURRENCY INCONVERTIBILITY ON TRADE FLOWS

This study investigates whether the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade volumes (exports, imports, and the trade balance) differs for countries with and without import restrictions. A theoretical model points out that in countries with import restrictions, the volume of imports is often constrained by the export income. A real depreciation should stimulate exports and then also stimulate imports, as the volume of exports limits the volume of imports. Empirical evidence for a large international sample confirms that trade elasticities with respect to the real exchange rate importantly depend on the presence of trade restrictions. This suggests that earlier work in this area that ignored the importance of such restrictions has been misleading.     

Im/Ex in May,2010：Exports Continued Recovery in May

On June 10, 2010, General Administration of Customs of the People＇s China （GAC） Republic of released the profile of China foreign trade import and export in May and the first five months of this year. China returned to a trade surplus in April on strong exports growth after posting its first monthly deficit in almost six years in March, and Chinas exports surged by 48.5 percent year on year in May, while the imports climbed 48.3 percent, the General Administration of Customs （GAC） announced.     

2009中国外贸200强

连续10年保持强劲增长的中国外贸在2009年“熄火”了,受困于外需疲软,2009中国外贸200强的门槛首次下调。尽管上榜企业还是先于整体形势回暖,但榜单中外资企业比重过大、加工贸易主导的格局并未改变。     

Capital mobility and import substitution policies

This paper considers a conventional trade model with intermediate goods and capital mobility. In this framework, raising the barriers to imports tends to carry a country toward high exports. This is a new result and casts serious doubts regarding the proposition that policies of import substitution which characterized much of Latin America in the 1950s are basically inward oriented and tend to carry toward the low import, low export end of the spectrum.     

入世前后我国棉花国际贸易影响因素的比较分析

本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验法对入世前后影响我国棉花国际贸易行为的诸因素进行了甄别和计量分析,研究表明在入世前我国棉花垄断经营时期,棉花的进出口只关注供给层面而忽视需求层面,并随着生产量和库存量的变化而波动,而入世以后我国棉花国际贸易波动则主要是受市场价格及需求因素的影响。