The interest rate equalisation theorem with nontraded goods

Trade in all goods between countries having the same one primary factor Sraffa-Leontief technique necessarily leads to the equalisation of all rates of interest. Where some commodities are not traded, however, the necessity of global equalisation breaks down. It is shown that, on certain interpretations of the ‘factor’ intensity conditions, nonequalisation need not imply factor intensity reversals. The validity of a ‘local’ version of the theorem is not ruled out for this case but its usefulness appears to diminish, the smaller the number of goods traded.     

An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?

Defending a government's exchange-rate commitment with active interest rate policy is not an option in first-generation models of speculative attacks. In those models, the interest rate is the passive reflection of currency-depreciation expectations. In this paper, we show how to adapt the first-generation framework to allow for an interest rate defense. It is shown that increasing domestic currency interest rate before the attack makes domestic assets more attractive according to an asset substitution effect, but weakens the domestic currency by increasing the government's fiscal liabilities. As a result, an interest rate defense can be successful only conditional on sound fiscal policy.     

Commodity price cycles and financial pressures in African commodities exporters

In this study, we examine the interdependence between the credit and commodity price cycles among African commodity exporters. Specifically, we use an evolutionary co-spectral analysis that sets a time-varying dynamic correlation measure. Results of our analyses suggest that persistent commodity price shocks exert a greater impact on real economy than transitory fluctuations. Similar patterns can be derived for different types of commodities. During downswings, coherence is high for beverages and agricultural raw materials. In contrast, coherence for metals and oil is high during upswings. Periods of high coherence correspond to periods of financial pressure. As such, they can serve as indicators for impending financial crises.     

Adjustment to devaluation with money and nontraded goods

This paper analyzes the dynamics of adjustment to devaluation in a framework which highlights the role played by nontraded goods and money. We provide a specific analytical model of devaluation incorporating substitution effects in production and consumption as well as liquidity effects resulting from a stock-flow adjustment process. The analysis provides specific solutions for the time path of the balance of payments and the price of nontraded goods following devaluation.     

Exchange rate determination: The role of factor price rigidities and nontradeables

This paper introduces factor (labor) markets into the intertemporal monetary model of Obstfeld and Rogoff and combines this richer market structure with a new utility-independent representation of nontradeables. This allows us to explore the international monetary transmission mechanism for factor price (wage) rigidities under different degrees of macroeconomic openness. Factor price rigidities imply similar properties for the international transmission mechanism as domestic producer price rigidities. Nontradeables give raise to interesting new effects under asymmetric monetary shocks: They create short-run PPP deviations, increase exchange rate volatility relative to price level volatility and reduce (positive) consumption and (negative) output comovements.     

一种遥感卫星高码速VCM数传信道的均衡技术

在基于第二代数字卫星视频广播协议（DVB-S2）标准的遥感卫星可变编码调制（VCM）高码速数传信道中,宽带信号的大失真、大频偏和低信噪比会导致解调器载波环路不锁定。传统的DVB-S2解调器并不能解决这个问题。在载波环路前增加一个均衡器补偿失真,可以让载波环路稳定锁定。为了克服载波环路前信号的频偏和相偏对均衡器的影响,提出了一种均衡技术,利用起始序列（SOF）和导频的先验信息进行双重自相关变换,设计了一种新的误差函数和迭代过程。仿真结果表明,该均衡技术可在该应用条件下支持解调稳定工作。     

Bank profitability and interest rate risk

It is frequently asserted that the profitability of institutions that lend long and borrow short is restricted during periods of rising interest rates. In banking circles this assertion has been translated into a concern primarily for the soundness of smaller banks, which are commonly thought to hold a large proportion of their portfolios in longer term fixed-rate loans and thus face considerable interest rate risk. Moreover, with the popularity of the new “NOW” accounts and competing money market mutual funds, there is a fear that a potential profit squeeze at these institutions has been made more probable. The present study examines the issue of the interest rate sensitivity of commercial bank profitability at a theoretical level and attempts to measure empirically the extent to which the profitability of different size classes of banks has been affected by periods of changing interest rates since 1976. This study finds that small commercial banks as a group have actually experienced increased profitability both absolutely and relative to large banks in recent periods (since 1976) of rising interest rates. However, this variation is numerically small. This finding calls into question both the usefulness of the maturity composition model as a predictor of interest rate risk and the concern for the supposed plight of small banks during periods of rising interest rates.     

Interest rate equalization and nonequalization by trade in Leontief-Sraffa models

A half-dozen theorems and some corollaries concerning equalization of factor prices in a time-phased Leontief-Sraffa system with steady-state profit rates are carefully stated and discussed. An example is the new Mainwaring theorem, that a 1-technique world will either have the normalized price ratio vector independent of the profit rate or uniquely determined by it. Another example is that, when intermediate goods can be imported, unchanged profit rates and changed tastes can negate the nonsubstitution theorem and alter price ratios, since now the world has more than one primary (i.e. geographical) labor.     

An empirical comparison of continuous time models of the short term interest rate

This article tests the performance of a wide variety of well-known continuous time models—with particular emphasis on the Black, Derman, and Toy (1990; henceforth BDT) term structure model—in capturing the stochastic behavior of the short term interest rate volatility. Many popular interest rate models are nested within a more flexible time-varying BDT framework that allows us to compare the models and find the proper specification of the dynamics of short rates. The empirical results indicate that the equilibrium models that do not allow the drift and diffusion parameters to vary over time and parameterize the volatility only as a function of interest rate levels overemphasize the sensitivity of volatility to the level of interest rate and fail to model adequately the serial correlation in conditional variances. On the other hand, the GARCH-based arbitrage-free models with time-dependent parameters in the drift and diffusion functions define the volatility only as a function of unexpected information shocks and fail to capture adequately the relationship between interest rate levels and volatility. This study shows that the most successful models in capturing the dynamics of short term interest rates are those that introduce time-dependent parameters to the short rate process and define the conditional volatility as a function of both the interest rate levels and the last period's unexpected news. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 777–797, 1999     

The exchange rate and the price level

The US-Dollar has inflated the world. Its vehicle is the present international monetary system of pegged exchange rates. This system which was introduced to stimulate International trade and division of labour between the different countries became an important promoter of world wide inflation.     

Exchange rate regimes and national price levels

This paper explores the role of exchange rate regimes in explaining deviations from the classic theory of purchasing power parity. Examining a broad panel of countries, I find that developing countries with fixed exchange rate regimes have national price levels that are 20 percent higher than those with flexible regimes. For industrial countries, the relation between regimes and price levels is qualitatively similar but weaker. I investigate several explanations for this pattern, and find that exchange-rate overshooting in floats, inflation inertia in pegs and expansionary policies can explain only 5 percentage points of the observed differences. I also show that even though the observed pattern could be the outcome of a class of open economy models pioneered by Obstfeld and Rogoff, the data provides limited empirical support for the predictions of this model.     

Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence

While virtually all currency crisis models recognise that the decision to abandon a peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, this is seldom modelled explicitly. We add the threat of an interest rate defence to the global game model of Morris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). With an endogenous defence, actions of speculators may become strategic substitutes instead of the usual complements. Nevertheless, our generalised model remains tractable and has a unique threshold equilibrium. It provides additional insights. For instance, the threat of an interest rate defence makes speculation riskier and this may be sufficient to keep speculators out when fundamentals are still relatively strong.     

International productivity and factor price comparisons

Using OECD input–output tables for a diverse group of 33 countries in the year 2000 and estimates of each country's factor stocks, I compute factor payments for aggregate labor and capital with value-added data adjusted for self-employment by sector. Using a detailed technology matrix for the U.S., I compute factor-specific productivity measures in each country relative to the U.S., and show that these measures are strongly correlated with the pattern of wages and rental rates. I find that many low income countries with low labor productivity have relatively high capital productivity. I also find a distinctive pattern between factor productivity and factor payments depending on whether a country has a high or low wage-rental ratio compared to the U.S. I show these findings are consistent with the existence of sector-based differences in production technology and complementarities between factors.