Exchange rates and prices: Evidence from China

This article develops a pricing model that incorporates an industrial organization approach with the traditional quantity theory of money to explain the impact of exchange rates on consumer prices. Using time-series data on prices and exchange rates of China, the model replicates the main features of the observed facts: exchange rates influence consumer prices through changing import prices; money supply and output influence consumer prices following the quantity theory. The estimating results show that exchange-rate pass-through to consumer prices is low and increases from the short run to the long run. The extent of pass-through is likely to depend on markup adjustment and marginal costs.     

Exchange rates,money, and relative prices: The dollar-pound in the 1920s

This paper applies the monetary approach to exchange rate determination to the analysis of the monthly dollar/pound exchange rate during the period preceding the return of Britain to gold in 1925. The analytical framework emphasizes that the exchange rate is influenced by real and monetary factors. Special attention is given to the relationship between the exchange rate and the relative price of traded to non-traded goods. The estimated elasticity of the exchange rate with respect to this relative price is shown to be about 0.4 which provides an independent measure of the relative share of spending on non-traded goods.     

Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability

A major puzzle in international finance is the well-documented inability of models based on monetary fundamentals to produce better out-of-sample forecasts of the nominal exchange rate than a naive random walk. While this literature has generally employed statistical measures of forecast accuracy, we investigate whether there is any economic value to the predictive power of monetary fundamentals for the exchange rate. We find that, in the context of a simple asset allocation problem, the economic value of exchange rate forecasts from a fundamentals model can be greater than the economic value of random walk forecasts across a range of horizons.     

Relative prices and wage inequality: evidence from Mexico

This paper examines the link between relative goods prices and relative wages during two periods of Mexico's trade liberalization. The relative price of skill-intensive goods rose following Mexico's entrance to the General Agreement and Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986, but fell after Mexico entered the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. This paper adds a band pass filter to two established techniques to compare the relationship between prices and wages. Results from all three approaches are consistent with a positive long-run relationship between relative output prices and relative wages. The band pass filter results suggest that the relevant time frame for the relationship begins after 3-5 years.     

The effect of concentration and market power on food prices: evidence from Finland

This research examines empirically the relationship between economies of scale, concentration, and market power in food retailing. With unique, local market data available Finland, the analysis could investigate the impact of both local concentration and industry-wide concentration (which can be interpreted as multimarket contact) are taken into account in the evaluation of grocery retail competitiveness. The results show that the main factor affecting market power is the size of the retail firm. Larger share grocery retailers, for both the local and the national markets, carried higher mark-ups. At the same time, no firm-level scale economies were found from these larger firms. I conclude from these findings that the main purpose of large grocery retail mergers is to gain market power not efficiency.     

The characteristics of interest rates and stock variances implied in option prices

Using the Black-Scholes option pricing model, this study simultaneously estimates stock return variances and interest rates implied in market option prices. Results show that the shorter term options exhibit greater implied stock variances than do longer term options. Implied interest rates, however, appear to be constant over the different expirations. Overall, the implied interest rates exhibited higher correlations with Treasury bill rates than with other money market rates, but they were consistently about one-fourth higher than the Treasury bill rates.     

Exchange rates and the volume of trade—The case for fixed exchange rates

Exchange rate volatility and long-term distortions of exchange rate levels have given rise to concern among participants in international trade. Do exchange rate fluctuations have an adverse impact on the volume of trade? What measures could be taken to achieve greater exchange rate stability?     

Minding our Ps and Qs: Exchange rates and foreign trade

Since early 1985, the dollar has been declining in the foreign exchange markets. An examination of interest rate patterns internationally suggests that the dollar's decline is not inflation induced. Taking the analysis one step further it is clear that Europe and Japan have had supply-side revolutions of their own. Therefore, the fall in the U.S. dollar appears to be the consequence of improved foreign economies. As such, the lower valued dollar will lead to improvements in the U.S. economy, especially in the tradable goods area. These improvements will not be made at the expense of the less tradable goods, however. The rich will get richer and so will the poor.     

Price-matching guarantees as signals of low store prices: survey and experimental evidence

Many retailers offer a price-matching guarantee that promises to pay consumers the difference if they find a lower price elsewhere. This article proposes that the effectiveness of a price-matching guarantee as a signal of low store prices depends on individuals’ beliefs about the degree to which other consumers in the market engage in price search, enforce price-matching guarantees, or both. Consistent with signaling theory, results of a survey and two experimental studies demonstrate that market level factors affect consumer beliefs about the extent to which others engage in price search and thereby the effectiveness of price-matching guarantees in lowering perceptions of store prices. The implications of the findings for retail strategy are discussed along with directions for future research.     

Exchange rates,labour costs and international competitiveness

The international competitiveness of German industry, so greatly dependent on exports, is in large measure determined both by fluctuations in the rate of exchange and by the level of its labour costs in relation to those of its competitors in the world market. Recent trends in these two factors are discussed in the following article.     

Exchange market pressure,commodity prices,and contagion in Latin America

Over the past two decades, Latin American currencies have faced not only pressure to devalue but also periods of uncomfortable appreciation. Domestic macroeconomic factors, as well as global events and contagion, might bear part of the responsibility. This study constructs a monthly index of exchange market pressure (EMP) for four Latin American countries before using vector autoregressive methods to test the influence of commodity prices, macroeconomic variables, and external factors on each country's index. While inflation is an important determinant of EMP, we conclude that Chile and Peru are more likely than Mexico and Brazil to face pressure when commodity prices fall. This supports the idea that these two countries have “commodity currencies” and that their exchange markets are most vulnerable to international contagion.     

Asymmetric competition and collection rates differentials: determinants of prices in international telephone service markets

The paper investigates determinants of pricing in international telephone service markets. The analysis—focused on 24 worldwide national markets—shows the impact of several telecommunications-specific and macroeconomic variables on collection rate differentials and traffic imbalance between countries. An econometric model is aimed at performing quantitative analysis and providing support to future telecommunications policies.     

Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity-exporting countries

This paper studies the link between real exchange rates and commodity prices, over the period 1993M1–2018M12, for commodity-exporting countries by analysing countries individually and considering the possibility of structural breaks. Our results suggest that: (a) the movements in the price of the main commodity (i.e., the one whose share is at least 20% of total commodity export) affect significantly to the real exchange rate; (b) the sign of the effect of commodity prices on real exchange rate is not clearly positive (as was found by earlier analyses using panel data), but it depends on the country considered; and (c) the negative effects of the possession of natural resources observed in the past decades seem not to be now overwhelming.     

Exchange rates and US direct investment into Latin America

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze separately the determinants of maritime transport and road transport costs for Spanish exports to Poland and Turkey (markets for which maritime and road transport are competing modes) and investigate the different effects of these costs on international trade. First, we investigate the extent to which maritime and road transport costs depend on different factors such as unit values, distances, transport conditions, service structures, and service quality. Second, we analyze the relative importance of road and maritime transport costs in comparison with distance measures as determinants of trade flows. The main results of this investigation indicate that real distance is not a good proxy for transportation costs and identify the central variables influencing road and maritime transportation costs: for both modes, transport conditions are strong determinants, whereas efficiency and service quality are more important for maritime transport costs, and geographical distance is more important for road transport. Road and maritime transport costs are central explanatory factors of exports and they seem to deter trade to a greater extent than road or maritime transit time when endogeneity is considered.     

Option prices and risk‐neutral densities for currency cross rates

The theoretical relationship between the risk‐neutral density (RND) of the euro/ pound cross rate and the bivariate RND of the dollar/euro and the dollar/pound rates is derived; the required bivariate RND is defined by the dollar‐rate marginal RNDs and a copula function. The cross‐rate RND can be used by banks, international businesses, and central bankers to assess market expectations, to measure risks, and to value options, without relying on over‐the‐counter markets, which may be either non‐existent or illiquid. Empirical comparisons are made between cross‐rate RNDs estimated from several data sets. Five one‐parameter copula functions are evaluated and it is found that the Gaussian copula is the only one‐parameter copula function that is ranked highly in all of the comparisons we have made. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:324–360, 2010     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.