动态购买力平价理论与检验

长期以来,学术界对购买力平价理论的理解基本上都停留在静态表述上．本文给出了购买力平价理论动态表述,并在“各国可贸易品价格具有相同变化趋势”前提条件下,建立了一个理论模型对这个理论进行证明,给出了其成立的前提条件。然后我们分别运用东亚国家在1970～1996年间数据和国际比较项目组(ICP)所提供的世界各国数据,对动态购买力平价理论进行了检验,结果表明,动态购买力平价理论是基本成立的。     

Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies

This paper uses cointegration analysis on monthly data over April 1994-December 2000 to test the relevance theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for two advanced transition economies (Poland and the Czech Republic) and one lagging transition economy (Romania). PPP is not rejected between the lagging reformer and developed market economies, but is rejected between the advanced reformers and the developed economies. However, PPP is not rejected between the two advanced transition economies, though it is rejected between the lagging and advanced transition economies. The evolution of the real exchange rates over 1994-2000 suggest that a significant explanation for these findings is the central role of the exchange rate in the disinflation strategies of Poland and the Czech Republic in the early part of this period, in contrast to the managed float followed by Romania throughout the period.     

On the Empirical Failure of Purchasing Power Parity Tests

Empirical research on the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) condition is generally based on real exchange rates built using the consumer price index (CPI), but fails to provide clear support to PPP. In this paper we show theoretically that, even if the law of one price (LOP) holds for traded goods, CPI‐based real exchange rates are not mean reverting, and are neither stationary nor integrated. Therefore, both unit root and stationarity tests should reject their null. Our theoretical results are validated both by simulations and an empirical application. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cities, Borders, Distances, Non-Traded Goods and Purchasing Power Parity

Most empirical studies for the post Bretton-Woods period fail to find evidence of a long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) relationship. An investigation into the failure of PPP is made in this study by using disaggregated price data. This disaggregation is on two levels: location (prices from US and Canadian cities rather than national aggregates) and type of goods (e.g., fuel oil, a tradable commodity and local public transportation, a non-tradable). This disaggregation allows for the testing of the importance of borders (implying an exchange rate), distances, and types of goods in the failure of PPP. The analysis conducted suggests that both country borders and distances play a significant role. However, there is mixed evidence concerning type of goods as an important determinant of the failure of PPP.     

Productivity Bias Hypothesis and The Purchasing Power Parity: a review article

Abstract.  Productivity differentials among countries are said to be one of the major sources that contribute to the deviation of the Purchasing Power Parity-based exchange rate from the equilibrium rate, hence the productivity bias hypothesis. Prior to last review article on the productivity bias hypothesis in 1976, almost all studies relied upon cross-sectional regression analysis. Since then, two groups of empirical studies have emerged. While one group has employed time-series data, the other one has used panel data. These two later groups have provided more support to the hypothesis than the earlier cross-sectional studies. This paper reviews and criticizes each group separately and provides tables that summarize main features of each study.     

人民币汇率购买力平价的界限检验

本文采用界限检验(bounds test)方法对人民币汇率购买力平价进行经验分析。与协整检验不同，界限检验具有直接检验变量间长期相关性的优点，而不管各相关变量是零阶单整、一阶单整还是混合形式，不必预先对相关变量进行单位根检验。通过对人民币兑德国马克、港币、日元和美元四种名义汇率的界限检验，本文的经验分析结果显示，1994年汇率制度改革以来人民币汇率购买力平价得到部分经验证据的支持。其中，人民币兑美元和人民币兑港币汇率的走势符合购买力平价理论，而人民币兑德国马克和人民币兑日元汇率不符合购买力平价理论。     

Functional Coefficient Cointegration Models Subject to Time–Varying Volatility with an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity

This paper analyses functional coefficient cointegration models with both stationary and non‐stationary covariates, allowing time‐varying (unconditional) volatility of a general form. The conventional kernel weighted least squares (KLS) estimator is subject to potential efficiency loss, and can be improved by an adaptive kernel weighted least squares (AKLS) estimator that adapts to heteroscedasticity of unknown form. The AKLS estimator is shown to be as efficient as the oracle generalized kernel weighted least squares estimator asymptotically, and can achieve significant efficiency gain relative to the KLS estimator in finite samples. An illustrative example is provided by investigating the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis.     

各国货币对美元购买力平价转换系数研究

购买力平价的基本理论是购买同样数量和质量的“一篮子”商品和服务，在一国所用本国货币和在美国所用美元等值。国际货币基金组织、世界银行、联合国等国际组织对世界上大多数经济体的货币，都进行了购买力平价计算。根据世界银行计算的结果，1998年人民币对美元的购买力平价转换系数是2.1:1，再以此为基础推算，2001年初人民币对美元的购买力平价转换系数是1.98:1。     

泰勒规则与麦克勒姆规则在中国货币政策中的检验

麦克勒姆规则不能为我国的货币政策提供一个参考尺度，主要原因在于我国不适合将基础货币作为货币政策的操作目标；泰勒规则可以为我国的货币政策提供一个参考尺度，衡量货币政策的松紧，货币市场利率应成为我国的货币政策操作目标。但我们的估计表明，通胀缺口和产出缺口对利率的调整系数皆为负值，这是一种不稳定的货币政策规则，这要求货币当局在实施货币政策中应提高利率时通胀和产出的调整程度。     

泰勒规则与我国货币政策反应函数的实证研究

本文依据泰勒规则对我国1993-2003年期间货币政策进行了实证检验,发现基于利率平滑假设基础上的泰勒规则模型可以较好地拟合利率变动,并且总体而言,我国利率水平弹性不足,导致实际利率逆向变动,加大了产出和物价的波动。但1997年以后,名义利率的弹性有所增强,这有助于解释宏观经济波动幅度大幅下降的原因。     

规则型货币政策与通货膨胀平稳性的内在关联机制研究

尽管保持物价稳定是货币政策的主要目标,但其作用效果一直存在争议.本文通过估计带有马尔可夫区制转移的泰勒规则模型,发现中国货币政策存在稳定区制和不稳定区制.通过对稳定和不稳定区制内通货膨胀序列进行单位根检验,发现中国货币政策的稳定性与通货膨胀序列的平稳性具有较高的相依性.稳定的货币政策区制对应的通货膨胀序列是平稳的,而不稳定的货币政策区制对应的通货膨胀序列是不平稳的.稳定的泰勒规则对通货膨胀具有牵拉效应,使得通货膨胀率一直围绕目标通胀率波动.现阶段继续实施稳定的泰勒规则是保证物价稳定,防止通货膨胀的关键所在.     

激活农村购买力的价格对策

拉动内需,实现经济快速稳步发展,已成为我国新一轮经济增长的热点,而拥有广阔消费市场的我国农村,也成了刺激消费、拉动内需的焦点。在此背景下,作为政府的价格职能部门,应该利用部门特点,发挥价格杠杆的作用,为拉动内需作出应有的贡献。然而,拉动内需,激活农村的潜在购买力,应该从价格政策扶持农民方面入手,利用价格信息帮助农民致富,运用价格监管为农民营造一个公平、良好的消费环境,让农民钱袋子涨起来的同时,更让农民大胆地消费、放心地购物。     

提高核电采购质量保证工作有效性和效率的探讨

本文在分析多项目总承包下采购活动以及采购质保工作的特点、QA工程师在工作中遇到的问题及其原因的基础上,从目标、贡献、主动权、信息四个方面,结合贯穿于采购活动全过程的采购质保工作,探讨了如何提高工作的有效性和效率,提出了解决方案建议。     

城镇居民住宅有效购买力评价研究

本文试图在分析城镇居民住宅有效购买力影响因素的基础上，利用熵的多准则综合评价模型，对城镇居民住宅有效购买力作出评价，以期为房地产企业推出适销对路的住宅产品提供参考。     

火电企业招标采购发展趋势及优化方法研究

随着电力改革的不断深入和电力市场的逐步放开,火电上网电价不断降低,火电企业经营发展的难度空前增加。对于火电企业来说,要想实现降本增效,就必须做好招标采购工作,以此促进企业的健康发展。对此,论文主要对火电企业招标采购发展趋势及优化方法进行研究,以供参考。     

G市供电公司差异化物资采购策略的应用研究

本文以G市供电公司为例,对其现在的物资采购管理全过程进行分析,找出集中采购存在的问题根源。通过数据分析,运用运筹学的DEA线性规划模型对采购物资进行综合指标评分,再利用Kraljic模型进行物资归类,并根据物资的采购性质制定相应的采购策略。同时引入资产管理理念,研究如何运用资产全生命周期(LCC)采购策略对关键性物资进行战略采购,并对标准化程度高,行业制造成熟的办公、信息、耗材等物资提出电子化集中采购模式,以实现成本和效率最优的目标。     

PAB竞价机制下发电商报价策略研究

在电力市场环境中，发电商选择报价策略并向交易中心投标。本文在PAB(pay—as—bid)竞价机制下，考虑到发电商的成本为私有信息，建立了不完全信息静态博弈模型，得到了发电商的最优报价策略。     

安装工程项目采购材料的套期保值采购方案研究

文章根据安装工程项目原材料的特点提出ABC采购法,由于B类采购目标中的某些原材料,其价格容易受到市场价格的影响,因此提出基于动态规划的套期保值采购方法。文章将原材料的套期保值过程看作是一个多阶段决策问题,构建动态规划模型,实施套期保值的采购策略。最后以铜材料为例,阐述铜的套期保值原理,设计套期保值采购方案,以有效规避价格风险。     

ERP与采购管理

本文概述了ERP系统对企业信息化建设的作用,指出传统采购管理的不足等内容,着重论述了ERP对促进采购管理的作用以及实施ERP对推进企业先进管理的重要性。     

MRP采购的订货批量法则的应用与成本比较——以某种汽车零件采购计划为例

在MRP采购的批量确定问题上,有多种不同的批量法则可以使用.不同的批量法则应用的效果各不相同.本文介绍并应用了FRP,FOQ,POQ,LFL,EOQ,MPG几种满足MRP采购特征要求的常用的批量法则,比较并分析了不同批量法则应用的成本效果和应用条件,拟为MRP采购人员在处理采购订货批量问题时提供借鉴.