Oil Prices and Personal Consumption Expenditures: Does the Source of the Shock Matter?

This paper studies the effect of structural oil shocks on personal consumption expenditures (PCE). First, we estimate a nonlinear simultaneous equation model, compute impulse responses by Monte Carlo integration, and conduct a test of the symmetry of the impulse response functions. We find that aggregate PCE responds asymmetrically to positive and negative oil‐specific demand shocks. Second, we find that aggregate PCE responds negatively to positive oil demand shocks, while adverse oil supply shocks are of limited effect. Third, we find important heterogeneity in the magnitude, sign and timing of the disaggregate PCE responses to structural shocks in the crude oil market. Our results clearly indicate that the response of PCE to an unexpected oil price increase depends on the source of the oil price shock. Our findings are robust to different nonlinear transformations for the real price of oil.     

Search Engine Optimization: What Drives Organic Traffic to Retail Sites?

The lion's share of retail traffic through search engines originates from organic (natural) rather than sponsored (paid) links. We use a dataset constructed from over 12,000 search terms and 2 million users to identify drivers of the organic clicks that the top 759 retailers received from search engines in August 2012. Our results are potentially important for search engine optimization (SEO). We find that a retailer's investments in factors such as the quality and brand awareness of its site increases organic clicks through both a direct and an indirect effect. The direct effect stems purely from consumer behavior: The higher the quality of an online retailer, the greater the number of consumers who click its link rather than a competitor in the list of organic results. The indirect effect stems from our finding that search engines tend to place higher quality sites in better positions, which results in additional clicks because consumers tend to click links in more favorable positions. We also find that consumers who are older, wealthier, conduct searches from work, use fewer words, or include a brand name product in their search are more likely to click a retailer's organic link following a product search. Finally, the quality of a retailer's site appears to be especially important in attracting organic traffic from individuals with higher incomes. The beneficial direct and indirect effects of an online retailer's brand equity on organic clicks, coupled with the spillover effects on traffic through other online and traditional channels, leads us to conclude that investments in the quality and brand awareness of a site should be included as part of an SEO strategy.     

What Drives Output Volatility? The Role of Demographics and Government Size Revisited

This paper studies the determinants of output volatility in a panel of 22 OECD countries. In contrast to the existing literature, we avoid ad hoc estimates of volatility based on rolling windows, and we account for possible non‐stationarity. Specifically, output volatility is modelled within an unobserved components model where the volatility series is the outcome of both macroeconomic determinants and a latent integrated process. A Bayesian model selection approach tests for the presence of the non‐stationary component. The results point to demographics and government size as important determinants of macroeconomic (in)stability. A larger share of prime‐age workers is associated with lower output volatility, while higher public expenditure increases volatility.     

What Drives Fraud in a Credence Goods Market? – Evidence from a Field Study

This paper investigates the impact of competition on an expert firm's incentive to defraud its customers in a credence goods market. Controlling for the competence of car repair shops, their financial situation, and reputational concerns, we use and complement the data set from a nationwide field study conducted by the German Automobile Association that regularly checks the reliability of garages in Germany. We find that more intense competition lowers a firm's incentive to defraud its customers.     

Spatial Lock-in: Do Falling House Prices Constrain Residential Mobility?

Falling house prices have caused numerous homeowners to suffer capital losses. Those with little home equity may be prevented from moving because of imperfections in housing finance markets: the proceeds from the sale of their home may be insufficient to repay their mortgage and provide a down payment on a new home. A data set of mortgages is used to examine the magnitude of these constraints. Estimates show that average mobility would have been 24% higher after 3 years had house prices not declined, and after 4 years, it would have been 33% higher. Among those with high initial loan-to-value ratios, the differences are even greater.     

What Drives Green Product Development and How do Different Antecedents Affect Market Performance? A Survey of Italian Companies with Eco‐Labels

Green products can play a key role in the achievement of sustainable development goals. Through a survey of 188 Italian companies with eco‐labeled green products, this study aims at understanding the relative importance of several motivations to develop green products, the influence of different motivations and firm characteristics on green product features (radicalness and differentiation), and which factors affect market performance of green products. This study reports a ranking of 49 motivations, highlighting that the most relevant are related to the prospect of market benefits. Results also show that product radicalness and differentiation have partially different antecedents in terms of motivations, while being a family firm positively influences only product differentiation. With regards to factors affecting market performance of green products, prospect of market benefits, availability of new technologies, firm foreign ownership, product radicalness and differentiation show a positive influence, while firm age displays a negative effect.     

Emerging Australian Biotechnology Companies: Globalizing or Just Playing?

The biotechnology industry is seen as one of the most globalized. It is also an industry dominated by SMEs in most countries. It would be expected then that these biotechnology SMEs themselves would be global in their focus. It is the intent of this research to understand the globalization issues that are encouraging biotechnology companies to go global, whether these companies really are truly global companies, and if not, at which stage of the globalization process these companies are operating. The study is undertaken using secondary quantitative data on all the publicly listed biotechnology companies in Australia that have undertaken some form of internationalization, based on 2003/4 annual reports. The main conclusion from the research is Australian biotechnology companies are still in an immature stage of development in the globalization process. The companies’ market strategies are directed at profitable countries and regions, such as the USA and Europe. This neglects other markets that are more accessible and can provide much needed early income streams. The internationalization effort of Australian biotechnology companies is only partial and could not be considered to be a true globalization effort.     

What Is Toxic Followership?

There has been some discussion on the subject of toxic followership, but it is as yet ill‐defined and deserves further evaluation and study. The current paper examines toxic followership using Kelley's typology of followers and provides potential methods of mitigating toxic followership. Just as toxic leaders harm organizations, so too can toxic followers. They both can cause good people to leave an organization, and put the organization's survival at risk.     

What Does Trade Openness Measure?

An empirical measure of trade openness is defined as the ratio of total trade to GDP, and represents a convenient variable routinely used for cross‐country studies on a variety of issues. However, the effects that the crude measure captures remain ambiguous, making it difficult to interpret the empirical results. Drawing on several strands of the literature, this study examines the informational content of the trade openness measure using intranational and international data. We find that, even for fully integrated economies within a country, trade openness is approximately half as variable as it is for segmented diverse countries around the world. The information it conveys is better characterized as the extent of the economic remoteness and idiosyncratic distribution of sectoral production. The cross‐country variation of trade openness derives more from the variability in GDP than trade.     

What drives equity market non-participation?

This paper produces endogenous equity market non-participation in an economy with uninsurable labor income risk and heterogeneous skill levels. Prudence and impatience generate stationary household wealth levels that depend on income. Skill, and therefore labor income, heterogeneity leads to wealth heterogeneity, with high skill households accumulating high wealth and low skill households accumulating low wealth. A HARA class utility with subsistence consumption requirement generates decreasing RRA with respect to household wealth. Consequently, low skill households also have significantly higher local RRA. In addition low skill households have less human capital and therefore have lower diversification demand for stocks. Low wealth, high RRA and low diversification demand predicts that low skill households do not hold stocks in the face of a moderate ownership cost. In addition, the model predicts a humped lifecycle wealth accumulation pattern and a humped lifecycle stock allocation pattern. I also find that stockholders exhibit a greater aggregate willingness to supply risky capital during the expansion phase of a business cycle, despite the lower conditional equity premium.     

What about the leader? What should the Hungarian Prime Minister do after he lied?

This article shows how text analysis is used to investigate the role leadership characteristics (in the sense of how to behave) play in the media before and after a political leader has taken care of an event that has shocked a substantial part of the population in his country. Here this is a lie by the Hungarian Prime Minister that became public in September 2006. It turns out that after the event took place the leader has to demonstrate vision and has to keep or gain trust from the people.     

What can we learn from Switzerland?

The collapse of Swissair will be a good litmus test for what is advanced here. Although it is too soon to tell at the time of writing (October 2001) it would be extremely uncharacteristic for the company to be rescued with public funds, despite its hugely symbolic nature as an erstwhile source of national pride.     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

What改变了我们的生活?

20世纪是科学昌明的世纪,人类的发明创造空前繁多,从小小曲别针,到连结全球的因特网。科学技术改变着人们的生活,也使人类对世界认识。 挪威人约翰·瓦莱,他在1900年发明了金属别针,改变了以往人们用大头针装订纸张的方式,大头针曾将多少收件人的手划出口子。     

What determines forecasters’ forecasting errors?

This paper contributes to the growing body of literature in macroeconomics and finance on expectation formation and information processing by analyzing the relationship between expectation formation at the individual level and the prediction of macroeconomic aggregates. Using information from business tendency surveys, we present a new approach of analyzing forecasters’ qualitative forecasting errors. Based on a quantal response approach with misclassification, we define forecasters’ qualitative mispredictions in terms of deviations from the qualitative rational expectation forecast, and relate them to the individual and macro factors that are driving these mispredictions. Our approach permits a detailed analysis of individual forecasting decisions, allowing for the introduction of individual and economy-wide determinants that affect the individual forecasting error process.     

What is Antidumping Policy Really About?

Dumping is whatever you can get the government to act against under the antidumping law. J. Michael Finger (1993, p.viii). Antidumping policy has become one of the most important instruments for protection in the international trade system, but at the same time it is the subject of an intense, though rather chaotic, debate. This paper provides an overview of the antidumping literature and the current issues. First it describes the origins of antidumping policy and provides some basic statistics on its current use drawn from several empirical studies. Next the paper discusses the economic foundations of antidumping law by examining the traditional and modern theories of dumping, as well as the industrial organization literature on price discrimination and predatory pricing. It is demonstrated that those economic foundations are weak. The paper also considers the fairness rationales for antidumping policy. Finally, it addresses the criticisms of antidumping laws, in particular in the context of the current antidumping versus competition policy debate, and discusses a variety of proposals for reform that have been made. The paper shows that the 1997 'cease fire' agreement between Canada and Chile is a promising approach toward reform of antidumping policy.