ARE PRIVATE TRANSFERS CROWDED OUT BY PUBLIC TRANSFERS? THE CASE OF NEPAL

Using household data from Nepal for 1995/96, this paper investigates the motives underlying private transfers and examines whether or not public transfers crowded out private transfers and the resultant effects on income inequality. The estimation results of Probit and Tobit models show that the private transfers received were altruistically motivated while public transfers exerted no crowding‐out effect. Although the probability of receiving private transfers decreases with household size, having more children or more elderly members of the family increases the probability as well as the amount of transfers. By contrast, the age of the household head does not appear to be a significant factor. Furthermore, the study shows that public transfers did not contribute to a lowering of income inequalities among households. These findings suggest that the Government of Nepal should design its public transfer schemes in order to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of its social safety net programs.     

政府补助、保险支付与老年临终照料成本——基于2002-2014年CLHLS死亡人口追踪数据的分析

为应对日益增大的老年人照料压力,我国各地试点通过政府补助或社会保险支付的方式满足老人的照料需求。基于2002-2014年CLHLS死亡人口追踪数据,文章用两部分模型、Heckman选择模型和结构方程模型,分析了政府补助、保险支付对老年临终照料直接成本和总成本的影响及其中介机制。研究发现,老年临终照料服务由保险支付的直接成本和总成本都比家庭支付明显更高,政府补助的直接成本比家庭支付更高,保险支付的直接成本比政府补助更高。保险支付和政府补助对照料成本影响的机制存在差异,保险支付主要通过收入效应对照料成本产生显著影响,但替代效应也发挥了中介作用,政府补助则主要通过替代效应对照料成本产生显著影响。文章的研究结论具有重要的政策含义。我国发展长期护理保险,应合理界定政府、市场、社会和家庭对老年人的照料责任,并明确长期护理保险的有限责任,尽量降低可能的收入效应和替代效应对照料成本的影响。     

Debt Relief and Credit to the Private Sector in African Countries

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to empirically investigate the link between debt relief and credit to the private sector in African countries using a panel method over the period 1988–2004. The motivation for investigating the relationship between debt relief and credit to the private sector follows Christensen's (2004) hypothesis that domestic debt has a negative impact on the credit to private sector; therefore debt relief is expected to alleviate domestic debt and thereby create space for domestic credit, which if it is mostly constituted of public sector credit, crowds out credit to the private sector. The main results of the paper are as follows: (1) debt relief has a significant and positive effect on credit to the private sector in the short term; (2) in the long term, debt relief has positive effects on domestic credit to the private sector only when associated with good initial institutional quality.     

The Wage Elasticity of Informal Care Supply: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study

This article focuses on the wage elasticity of informal care supply to elderly parents employing an instrumental variable approach to account for the fact that the wage rate is likely to be correlated with omitted variables. Using the 1998 wave of the 1998 ), the wage elasticity of informal care supply is estimated to be negative and larger in magnitude than found previously. The lower bound of this elasticity is estimated to be ?1.8 for males and ?3.6 for females. Additional findings suggest that this wage elasticity differs by the type of care provided to elderly parents and that it is larger in magnitude among individuals with siblings and those with independently living parents. Overall the reductions in the informal care constitute about 18% of the labor supply response for men and about 56% of the labor supply response for women, which are not compensated by monetary transfers.     

FISCAL ILLUSION AT THE LOCAL SPHERE: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE FLYPAPER EFFECT USING SOUTH AFRICAN MUNICIPAL DATA1

While South Africa operates a relatively decentralised governance and administrative structure, an important feature of the country's intergovernmental fiscal relations system is the gap that exists between the expenditure responsibilities of sub‐national authorities and their assigned revenue bases. The resulting vertical fiscal imbalance is mainly addressed via significant intergovernmental transfers to provinces and local governments. This factor presents strong a priori grounds for assuming that in the South African context, the heavy dependence of many local governments on intergovernmental transfers may generate fiscal illusion. Despite this, there have not been many empirical studies of fiscal illusion in South Africa's intergovernmental transfer system. This paper extends existing literature on fiscal illusion by using the fiscal year 2005/06 financial and expenditure data from 237 local government authorities in South Africa to evaluate the flypaper variant of the fiscal illusion hypothesis. Empirical results indicate that the marginal effects of municipal own‐source revenues on local expenditure exceed those of intergovernmental transfers. No statistical evidence in support of the flypaper hypothesis within the context of municipal expenditures in South Africa is found.     

Sibling Rivalry and Strategic Parental Transfers

This paper develops a noncooperative Nash model in which two siblings compete for their parents' financial transfers. Treating sibling rivalry as a “rent-seeking contest” and using a Tullock-Skaperdas contest success function, we derive the conditions under which more financial resources are transferred to the sibling with lower earnings. We find that parental transfers are compensatory and that the family as an institution serves as an “income equalizer.” Within a sequential game framework, we characterize the endogeneity of parental transfers and link it to parents' income, altruism, and children's supply of merit goods (e.g., parent-child companionship or child services). We show that merit goods are subject to a “moral hazard” problem from the parents' perspective.     

Upstream Intergenerational Transfers

This study analyzes upstream intergenerational transfers from middle-aged children to their elderly parents. We formulate a model in which the middle-aged child transfers both money and time to an elderly parent based on an altruistic motive. We examine substitution between financial transfers and time transfers using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Empirical results support the assumption that upstream transfers are motivated by altruism, particularly financial transfers. Parents financially worse off than their middle-aged children receive more money. They are more likely to live nearby if not coresident. Overall, the results for time transfers provide weaker support for our model than financial transfers. A child with a high wage tends to transfer money rather than time, suggesting that the two types of transfers are partial substitutes.     

How do private transfers respond to public transfers? Evolutionary evidence from Thailand

Private inter‐household transfers and public transfers can change along with changes in social and economic conditions. However, most previous studies have examined their relationship from static perspectives. This study contributes new evidence by investigating the dynamic relationship between public transfers and private inter‐household transfers over the past three decades using a Thailand data set. The results from econometric analysis show that there is no crowding‐out effect of public transfers on private inter‐household transfers for the country as a whole as well as for urban and rural households separately; instead, inter‐household private transfers increase along with public transfers.     

养老产业细分市场相关研究综述

近年来,中国人口老龄化速度不断加快。同时随着社会的发展,老龄人群的收入水平增高,对生活质量的要求提高,中国养老产业蓬勃发展。养老产业包含各类市场,将其细分不仅能更好地满足老年人的需求,同时也能使养老产业迸发出新的活力。因此,通过对国内外文献的梳理总结,对养老产业进行细分,探讨细分市场之后对产业运营发展的影响,并对未来进行展望。     

ARE PRIVATE TRANSFERS ALTRUISTICALLY MOTIVATED? THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA BEFORE AND DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

Using household panel data from Korea for 1995–98, this paper shows that private transfers of Korean households were altruistically motivated. Although the altruistic motive of households seemed to be reinforced during the financial crisis, the amount of private transfers was still not sufficient to support households living in urban areas. Also, there had been a strong crowding‐out relation between private and public transfers. This suggests that the Korean government should have designed its public transfer scheme carefully in order to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of its social safety net programs.     

Impact of Childcare and Eldercare on Off‐farm Activities in Rural China

Using individual data collected in rural China and adopting Heckman's two‐step function, we examined the impact of childcare and eldercare on laborers' off‐farm activities. Our study finds that having school‐aged children has a negative impact on rural laborers' migration decisions and a positive impact on their decision to work in the local off‐farm employment market. As grandparents can help to take care of young children, the impact of preschoolers is insignificant. Having elderly family to care for decreases the income earned by female members of the family. Although both men and women are actively engaged in off‐farm employment today in rural China, this study shows that women are still the primary care providers for both children and the elderly. Therefore, reforming public school enrollment and high school/college entrance examination systems so that migrant children can stay with their parents, this will help rural laborers to migrate to cities. The present study also calls for more public services for preschoolers and the elderly in rural China.     

Distribution policy under trade liberalisation in Zimbabwe: a CGE analysis

A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate theeconomy-wide and income distribution effects of transfer policiesto the poor. The model consists of seven income distributiongroups - communal farmers, resettlement farmers, unskilled workers,agricultural wage workers, skilled workers, industrial capitalistsand agricultural profit earners. The first four groups are treatedas a low income group and the last three as a high income group.Experiments to increase each of the low income groups' incomesby 5% using different sources of finance are simulated usingthe model. These are: an increase in government expenditurewithout budget balancing measures; an increase in governmenttransfers offset by a decrease in government spending elsewhere;and an increase in direct or indirect taxes. The results ofsuch experiments indicate that a policy of increasing directtaxes and increasing the government deficit in order to supportthe transfers are favourable in terms of increased incomes inthe short run. A policy of increasing indirect taxes and transferringthe revenue raised to the poor ranks last in terms of reducingincome inequalities. Finally, targeted transfers are generallybetter than universal transfers in terms of their benefits tolow income groups and in reducing income inequalities betweenthe low income and the high income groups.     

Dairy farming,cooperatives and livelihoods: lessons learned from six indian villages

India's dairy sector has emerged as the world's largest dairy producer and has enabled 70 million farmers to generate income through its rapid growth. This success is linked to broad national policy support through the Operation Flood program and the emergence of an inclusive model of cooperatives. However, the informal sector is still the marketing channel most used by dairy producers, and with the liberalization of the dairy sector, the cooperative model is also facing competition from the private sector. By surveying 244 dairy farmers in two major but heterogeneous states in India, this paper examines the inclusiveness of the sector and the impact of dairy cooperative membership on farmers’ income and livelihood. The originality of the paper concerns its systematic perspective on households’ assets and activities. The results indicate that cooperative membership is associated with caste membership and farmers collection centers. Better incomes are associated with membership, particularly among farmers with less land and among smallholders, who are more dependent on their dairy income to lift themselves out of poverty.     

父母对子女的私人转移支付与子女劳动力供给

利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）2013年数据,本文考察了来自父母的私人转移支付对子女劳动力供给的影响。采用父亲和母亲的受教育年限作为私人转移支付的工具变量克服了计量模型可能存在的内生性问题。研究发现,父母对子女的私人转移支付每提高1%,子女的日、周、年劳动力供给将分别降低0.0254%、0.0536%、0.0991%,据此测算,父母对子女的私人转移支付每增加1元将使全国劳动力日劳动供给减少约5.24万小时。进一步的影响机制分析发现,父母通过私人转移支付"购买"子女提供的关爱、照料服务而挤出了子女的劳动力供给是导致上述结果的重要原因。研究还发现,来自父母的私人转移支付对子女劳动力供给的影响只存在集约边际,而不存在广延边际,即其仅减少了子女的劳动供给时间,而并没有使子女退出劳动力市场。本文的研究有助于理解自上而下的代际转移支付带来的经济影响。     

Remittance Income Volatility and Labor Supply in Mexico

Using the 2000 through 2008 waves of the Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH), Mexico's income and expenditure survey, we estimate the way in which volatility surrounding the inflows of international remittances impacts male and female labor supply. We find that male and female labor supply decreases with higher levels of remittance income. Additionally, increases in remittance income volatility raise the employment likelihood of men and women, as well as the hours worked by employed women. Since men are more likely than women to be employed full‐time, women may be better suited to respond to increased volatility in remittance income by raising the number of hours worked. Overall, the findings are suggestive of labor supply being used as a buffer against income shortfalls and increased volatility in remittance inflows.     

The quantity approach to financial integration: The Feldstein-Horioka criterion revisited

This paper applies the Feldstein-Horioka criterion, that is, the role of savings-investment correlations, to assess the degree of financial integration in the European Community. We establish a link between the Feldstein-Horioka criterion and three other criteria for financial integration: the covered, uncovered, and real interest parity condition. Subsequently, we evaluate the Feldstein-Horioka criterion for financial integration on the basis of its underlying assumptions. The paper performs both cross-section and time-series analyses of savings-investment correlations. The time-series analysis relies on the concept of cointegration. Our major finding is that the Feldstein-Horioka criterion—contrary to what is usually found in world financial markets—is able to explain an increasing degree of financial integration in the European Community.Symbols S gross national savings - I gross domestic investment - C total private and government final consumption expenditure - M import of goods and services - X export of goods and services - Y gross domestic product - CA current account of the balance of payments - GNP gross national product - NCT net current transfers from the rest of the world - NFI net factor income from the rest of the world - FCF gross fixed capital formation - ST increase in stocks - S_p gross national savings by the private sector - S_g gross national savings by the public sector - I_p gross domestic investment by the private sector - I_g gross domestic investment by the government sector - corrected for a nonzero value of the statistical discrepancy     

Sibling donation games: pure-altruism,strategic-altruism,and the interaction of familial and public transfers

Accompanying the rapidly aging populations of high-income countries are increasing transfers of time and money from adult children to elderly parents (ascending altruism). In this paper we first develop a theoretical model to characterize the general reaction-functions of two adult siblings choosing transfer amounts (possibly time) to their needy parents under two alternative motivations: pure altruism and strategic altruism. We show that transfers are strategic substitutes under pure altruism and strategic complements under strategic altruism. The Nash-equilibrium generates distinct predictions associated with each motivation and we then explore some implications of our findings. A result with potentially important policy implications is that the response of children transfers to increased pension payments to the parents depends on the children's motivations. This contrasts with much of the literature which assumes transfers decrease with increased pension payments.     

WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT IN ZIMBABWE: EVIDENCE FROM A CONTINGENT VALUATION STUDY

If communities living adjacent to the elephant see it as a burden, then they cannot be its stewards. To assess their valuation of it, a contingent valuation method study was conducted for one CAMPFIRE district in Zimbabwe. Respondents were classified according to their preferences over the elephant. The median willingness to pay for the preservation of 200 elephants is ZW$260 (US$4.73) for respondents who considered the elephant a public good and ZW$137 (US$2.49) for those favouring its translocation. The preservation of 200 elephants yields an annual net worth of ZW$10,828 (US$196) to CAMPFIRE households. However, the majority of households (62%) do not support elephant preservation. This is one argument against devolution of elephant conservation. External transfers constitute one way of providing additional economic incentives to local communities.     

Ownership and alienation: Some social and economic implications of Michael Young and Peter Wilmott, The Symmetrical Family

People seem to want to make many similar uses of similar levels of affluence, wherever they stand in their local class structures. But class position, government, and market methods of allocating capital resources can frustrate their wishes in various ways, chiefly by barring them from access to the capital they need. capital markets are efficient when commercial production (in proportion to its efficiency) earns the means of bidding for the capital it needs. But domestic production cannot do that—it is the commercial wage-income of the domestic entepreneur, not the productivity of the domestic use, which has to bid for domestic capital. So there is no reason why open capital markets should arrive at optimal (i.e., most-productive) allocations either between the two systems of production, or within the domestic one. The problem is familiar to many economists of undeveloped societies. This article (by a non-economist) explores it in relation to developed societies, and concludes that socialists would do well to revise some traditional beliefs about public, private and domestic ownership.     

承接“二个转移”推进内蒙古优势特色产业升级的思考

近年来,以跨国公司为主导的国际资本扩大了在中国西部地区的产业转移。与此同时,中国东部地区基于降低营运成本等考虑,也加快了向中西部地区的产业转移。内蒙古面对国际、国内产业转移的良好机遇,凭借其资源优势成为热点承接地区。承接"二个转移",对于提升内蒙古优势特色产业的产业竞争力具有重要意义。内蒙古应积极优化投资环境、引导产业投向、增强产业配套能力,推进承接"二个转移",并以此带动本地区优势特色产业的优化升级。