Agricultural productivity in China

A stylized fact of Chinese agricultural production is a persistently rising cost share of industrial inputs, reflecting the law of diminishing returns. An alternative approach is presented to estimate agricultural productivity by incorporating this characteristic with a CES production function. We find that the elasticity of substitution affects significantly the size of total factor productivity. Our results suggest that the role of industrial inputs may have been underestimated; most of the gain in total factor productivity is attributable to the evolving mix of agricultural output, and the contribution of household farming may not be as large as previously claimed.     

Productivity in manufacturing and the length of the working day: evidence from the 1880 census of manufactures

Using micro-level data from the 1880 Census of Manufacturing, we estimate the elasticity of annual output with respect to the length of the working day. Holding labor and capital inputs constant and controlling for days of operation per month and months per year, this elasticity was positive but less than one, indicating diminishing returns. We also find diminishing returns to days per month and months per year, but these elasticities were significantly larger. Thus, decreases in daily hours coupled with an offsetting rise in annual days of operation would increase productive efficiency—precisely the kinds of changes then actually taking place.     

中部工业的要素产出弹性、替代弹性的实证研究——基于超越对数生产函数的面板模型的估计

在考虑生产函数的区域异质性、时期异质性、产业异质性的基础上,构建了一个包含资本、劳动、技术三种要素投入的超越对数生产函数模型。结果表明:资本和劳动的边际生产率具有递减特征,且资本和劳动具有互补性,而技术的边际生产率具有递增特征。资本和劳动的替代弹性具有缓慢下降的趋势,且数值大小小于1。技术进步差异水平在不断缩小,且技术进步为资本增强型技术进步和劳动偏向性技术进步。     

The Aggregate Production Function of the Finnish Economy in the Twentieth Century

This article uses the Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of the normalized constant elasticity of substitution (CES) function with factor‐augmenting technical progress directly, rather than using derived first‐order conditions of profit maximizing behavior. Bayesian estimation is applied because maximum likelihood estimation is sensitive to the starting values of maximization, and the parameters typically fail to converge to the global optimum because of a multimodal likelihood. Thanks to a convenient prior distribution, the posterior simulation of parameters works fairly well. The results indicate that in the long run (over 100 years) the parameters for the elasticity of substitution and capital income share are intimately linked to the shape of capital‐augmenting technological progress. In particular, the linear restriction excludes the possibility that the speed of capital‐augmenting technological progress converges to zero, which seems to lead to upwardly biased estimates of the elasticity of substitution and income share parameters.     

制造业部门技术进步的偏向性水平分析——基于区域特征的视角

文章基于CES生产函数,推导出技术进步方向的测算方法,并据此度量了1993-2012年期间中国制造业部门地区间不同的技术进步方向和偏向性程度。测算表明:在考察期内,资本生产效率的增长率在大幅下降,而劳动生产效率的增长率在上升。从要素的边际生产力递减原则出发,可以得到结论:在国家总量层面上,技术进步总体是偏向使用资本和节约劳动的;在地区层面上进行考察发现,中西部地区资本偏向性水平是最高的,其次是东部地区,而东北地区虽然是全国的重工业基地,但其技术进步对于资本的偏向性水平反而比较低。据此,文章从要素供给角度,为全国总量层面上技术进步方向的决定因素找到了答案,也为地区层面不同技术进步偏向程度的形成原因找到了体制内的影响因素。     

Indeterminacy with small externalities: The role of non-separable preferences

In this paper we consider a Ramsey one-sector model with non-separable homothetic preferences, endogenous labor and productive external effects arising from average levels of capital and labor. We show that indeterminacy cannot arise when there are only capital externalities but that it does occur when there are only labor external effects. We prove that sunspot fluctuations are fully consistent with small market imperfections and realistic calibrations for the elasticity of capital–labor substitution (including the Cobb-Douglas specification) provided the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of labor supply are large enough.     

The determinants of capital intensity in Japan and the US

We estimate the determinants of capital intensity in Japan and the US, characterized by striking different paths. We augment an otherwise standard Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) model with demand-side considerations, which we find especially relevant in the US. In this augmented setting, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is placed between 0.74 and 0.90 in Japan, and around 0.30 in the US. We also find evidence of biased technical change, which is capital-saving in Japan but labor-saving in the US. These differences help us explain the diverse experience in the capital deepening process of these economies, and lead us to conclude that demand-side drivers, quite relevant in the US, may also be relevant to account for different growth experiences. A close look at the nature of technological change is also needed before designing one-size-fits-all industrial, economic growth, and/or labor market policies.     

A new class of production functions and an argument against purely labor‐augmenting technical change

This paper derives the macro‐level production function from idea‐based microfoundations. Labor‐augmenting and capital‐augmenting developments are assumed to be Pareto‐distributed and mutually dependent. Using the Clayton copula family to capture this dependence, a new “Clayton–Pareto” class of production functions is derived that nests both the Cobb–Douglas and the constant elasticity of substitution. In the most general case, technical change is not purely labor‐augmenting over the long run, but it augments both capital and labor. Under certain parametrizations, the derived elasticity of substitution between capital and labor exceeds unity and, therefore, gives rise to long‐run endogenous growth.     

上海市三大产业CES生产函数弹性估计

替代参数的合理估计是应用CES生产函数进行经济活动分析首要前提。而现有研究现有关于上海市三大产业生产函数替代参数的估计,使得后续研究缺乏必要的依据。本文以各统计年鉴中上海经济统计数据为基础,结合CES生产函数一阶优化条件式中的经济变量进行数据的处理,采用贝叶斯方法估计出CES生产函数假设下的上海市三大产业的替代弹性,从而为相关研究提供了可行的方法和可信的参数。     

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的河南省经济增长影响要素分析

采用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,基于河南省1989-2009年时间序列数据对河南省经济增长影响要素进行实证分析。研究结果表明：劳动力投入的产出弹性为1.422,资本投入的产出弹性为0.315,能源投入的产出弹性为0.218,三个弹性之和大于1,说明河南省的经济特征是规模报酬递增的,并且劳动力对经济增长的贡献程度要明显大于资本和能源对经济增长的贡献程度。     

Intertemporal substitution in consumption, labor supply elasticity and sunspot fluctuations in continuous-time models

The aim of this paper is to discuss the roles of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of the labor supply on the local determinacy properties of the steady state in a two-sector economy with constant elasticity of substitution technologies and sector-specific externalities. Our main results provide necessary and sufficient conditions for local indeterminacy. First, we show that the consumption good sector needs to be capital intensive at the private level and labor intensive at the social level. Second, we prove that under this capital intensity configuration, the existence of sunspot fluctuations is obtained if and only if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is large enough but the elasticity of the labor supply is low enough. In particular, we will show on the one hand that when the labor supply is infinitely elastic, the steady state is always saddle-point stable, and on the other hand that when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is infinite, labor does not have any influence on the local stability properties of the equilibrium path.     

The effects of globalization and technology on the elasticity of substitution

The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor (\(\sigma\)) is usually considered a “deep parameter”. This paper shows, in contrast, that \(\sigma\) is affected by both globalization and technology, and that different intensities in these drivers have different consequences for the OECD and the non-OECD economies. In the OECD, we find that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is below unity; that it increases along with the degree of globalization; but it decreases with the level of technology. Although results for the non-OECD area are more heterogeneous, we find that technology enhances the substitutability between capital and labor. We also find evidence of a non-significant impact of the capital-output ratio on the labor share irrespective of the degree of globalization (which would be consistent with an average aggregate Cobb–Douglas technology). Given the relevance of \(\sigma\) for economic growth and the functional distribution of income, the intertwined linkage among globalization, technology and the elasticity of substitution should be taken into account in any policy makers’ objective function.     

要素禀赋、比较优势及其收入份额的关联度

工业化进程中,我国的技术进步呈资本偏向型,在劳动力缺乏弹性的基础上,伴随着技术的提升,资本替代劳动力的趋势不断增强,资本-劳动比率呈上升趋势,这一发展路径带来的结果,一端是低劳动力成本条件下的资本深化,资本收入份额增加,另一端是技术的选择不断偏向资本替代劳动的路径,劳动收入份额下降。其解决路径有:加强企业的自主创新、减少对技术引进的依赖;在注重技术创新的同时,注重技术进步的效率;发展劳动偏向型的技术进步,继续保持劳动密集型行业的比较优势。     

基于GVES生产函数资本劳动弹性分析

在已有生产函数基础上,依据要素边际弹性和替代弹性的特点,将VES模型扩展为GVES模型。用数学的方法分析了GVES模型的理论性质。然后用GVES模型建立计量模型实证分析资本和劳动弹性问题。结果表明GVES模型具有较好的理论性质和较强的实际应用价值。     

知识关联、劳动者迁移与城镇化格局——基于新经济地理视角的理论分析与数值模拟

文章基于BerliantFujita知识创新与扩散模型,扩展构建了2×3×3的空间动态均衡模型,对知识关联、劳动者迁移与城镇化格局之间的关系进行了理论分析和数值模拟。结果表明:在知识资本自由流动和劳动者自由迁移的情况下,城乡空间格局演化的内生动力来源于知识资本的收益率差异、劳动者的福利水平差距及其循环积累因果作用,最终可能演变成为两种均衡且稳定的"核心—边缘"型城镇化格局,这种均衡格局差异取决于城乡贸易自由度以及由现代产品支出份额、现代产品替代弹性、技能劳动者份额决定的临界值。     

论人力资本与劳动力的共同性和差异性

本文界定了人力资本与劳动力的基本内涵,认为人力资本的资本属性与劳动力的劳动属性是人力资本与劳动力本质差别。在此基础上,分析了人力资本与劳动力在产权主体、投资生成、使用状态、价值实现、监督激励、产权残缺与时效再生等方面的共同性,以及在内在本质、人员数量、科层使用、边际贡献、主体需要、管理方法、利益分配与风险抵押等方面的差异性。     

On the stabilizing virtues of imperfect competition

We analyze the stabilizing role of imperfect competition on fluctuations as a result of indeterminacy and endogenous cycles. In this paper, imperfect competition is a source of monopoly profits, because of producer market power. Considering an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and elastic labor supply, we show that under imperfect competition, the emergence of endogenous fluctuations requires a weaker substitution between production factors than under perfect competition. In this sense, imperfect competition stabilizes fluctuations. However, we find an opposite conclusion concerning the elasticity of labor supply. Indeed, endogenous fluctuations are compatible with a less elastic labor supply under imperfect competition.     

SECTORAL ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AND RETURNS TO SCALE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Elasticity of substitution and returns to scale are estimated on a sectoral basis for South Africa using panel-based generalised least square procedure. Apart from sectoral differences in terms of elasticity of substitution, the study found that elasticity of substitution is below unity in all of the sectors. Most of the sectors studied are found to have increasing returns to scale in production. The study further explores the implications of elasticity of factor substitution and returns to scale on growth and employment creation. It is argued that a greater number of jobs can be created from growth of sectors with constant or decreasing returns to scale than from the same level of output growth generated by sectors with increasing returns to scale. This is the case when the employment-creating potential of the same amount of additional output is compared in all the sectors examined. By virtue of scale economies, a sector like finance, insurance, real estate and business services generates more output with less proportional increase in inputs, which means growth in this sector may not have the desired impact on job creation. However, given the sector's large share (20%) of the country's total output and employment, it may generate more jobs, even if sectors like utilities and construction experience the same level of output growth. Given its importance for growth and employment, the study recommends further investigation into the reasons why elasticity of substitution is lower in sectors like utilities, mining and trade, catering and accommodation services.     

Verdoorn's law and increasing returns to scale in the UK regions, 1968-91: some new estimates based on the cointegration approach

The Johansen approach to estimating long-run cointegration vectorsis used with 1968–91 UK region by industry data to estimatereturns to scale. Thus, this approach has the advantages ofincluding a measure of capital, it overcomes the simultaneityproblems associated with the single-equation Verdoom law, andit involves estimating a correctly specified dynamic model inwhich is embedded the long-run solution(s). The results indicatethat there is substantial evidence that increasing returns arethe norm for the majority of manufacturing industries in Britishregions.     

Differences in returns to FDI between China's coast and interior: One country,two economies?

In principle, returns to factors of production within single economic systems should exhibit relatively uniform returns. Notwithstanding the fact that over the past 30 years China's economy has increasingly liberalized both internally and externally, it is widely understood that wages received by industrial workers in the coast and interior have widely diverged. However, less is known about how, between China's coast and interior, relative returns to domestic capital and foreign investment have fared, although we do know that the surge of foreign direct investment in China in recent decades has been overwhelmingly concentrated in the coastal region. This paper investigates comparative factor returns within China's industrial sector as measured by the marginal productivities of labor, domestic capital, and foreign capital. Using balanced and unbalanced samples of enterprise data during 1998–2004, we find significant differences between the returns to each of these factors. This paper explores the differences in estimates of factor returns that arise from the use of balanced versus unbalanced samples and least squares versus fixed effects estimators. We conclude that while returns to labor and domestic capital are higher in China's coastal economy, returns to foreign-owned capital are higher in the interior region. Indeed, the differences are indicative of those found in the literature that estimates cross-country comparisons between OECD and developing economies, suggesting that China's economy exhibits some of the differences found between the world's more and less developed economies.