South African Exporters and the Global Crisis: Intensive Margin Shock,Extensive Margin Hangover

This paper examines how changes at the intensive (established exporters exporting existing products to established markets) and the extensive (new exporters, products or markets) margins contribute to South African export growth and how this was affected by the global financial crisis. We find that the intensive margin is the more important contributor to export growth, contributing more than three quarters of observed growth. The intensive margin contracted significantly during the global financial crisis of 2009 but bounced back to pre‐crisis levels quickly. However, the impacts on the extensive margin persisted after the crisis with lower levels of entry of firms, new products and new destinations. The short‐term impact of the crisis was mitigated by the concentration of South African exports among larger, more productive super‐exporters. However, the fall in entry of new firms, products and destinations as a result of the crisis may mean that this concentration persists, and, at least over the next few years, South Africa does not diversify and broaden its exports.     

Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports

As a large trading nation, China competes with importing countries’ domestic and third‐country markets but also creates growth opportunities for exporters. Most studies on China trade shocks or “China shocks” focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies. The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China – China as the largest importer, rather than as an exporter. We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018. Using detailed export and employment data, we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure. We find that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters. On average, our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018, which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries. Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally.     

Do High-technology Exports Cause More Technology Spillover in China？

The volume of China’s high-technology exports has grown sharply since the implementation of its export promotion strategy "Revitalizing Trade through Science and Technology" in 1999.This paper investigates whether technology spillover effects are greater for hightechnology exports than for primary manufactured goods exports.We present a generalized multi-sector spillover model to identify both between spillover effects from exports towards non-exporters and within-spillover effects among export sectors.Using panel data for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1998 to 2005,we find that although high-technology export sectors have higher productivity compared with other sectors,this productivity advantage does not lead to technology spillover to both domestic sectors and other export sectors,and export technology spillover mainly derives from traditional export sectors rather than high-technology export sectors.As such findings can be largely attributed to the fact that China’s high-technology exports depend significantly on processing trade by foreign- invested firms,policy implications are discussed in relation to how to best promote the role of China’s high-technology exports during economic expansion.     

PCAOB Inspections: Public Accounting Firms on “Trial”

The objective of our article is to obtain a better understanding of how auditors anticipate the potential for PCAOB inspection, experience the inspection, cope with the consequences of the inspection, and understand the PCAOB's influence within the context of professionalism. We use a qualitative approach that uses both surveys (55) and interviews (20) of auditors (of varying rank and firm) across a five‐year period (2012–2017). Respondents suggest that PCAOB inspectors are powerful, representing the “prosecution,” “judge,” and “jury” of the auditing profession. We therefore use a structural metaphor of the PCAOB inspection as a judicial “trial.” By controlling the criteria used to evaluate performance, inspectors have the power to repeatedly “subpoena,” “interrogate,” and return a “verdict” on the firm (auditor); those judged as “guilty” require supervised “probation.” This process is perceived as having improved audit quality but at a cost. Passing an inspection is so important that auditors (firms) have resorted to impression management strategies and “functionally stupid” work practices (e.g., excessive documentation, a decrease in critical thinking as a result of a “box ticking” approach to auditing). Furthermore, some respondents believe that being a good auditor has come at the expense of being a good accountant; the emphasis on audit process and concurrent de‐emphasis on technical accounting could ultimately lead to audits themselves falling short. In addition, it is evident that inspectors and auditors differ in their perceptions of risk, likely manifesting because inspectors are standards‐focused while auditors (firms) are methodology‐focused. Finally, the inspection process has created excessive stress and tension, beyond budget and fee pressures, which some auditors perceive as affecting the pool of talented auditors that firms may be able to attract and retain in the future.     

Market In efficiency in Person‐to‐Person Betting: Examining ‘Known Loser’ Insider Trading on the Exchanges

Applying the Shin z measure of market efficiency to the relatively new person‐to‐person internet betting exchanges, Smith, Paton, and Vaughan Williams found “significantly lower market biases” compared to bookmaker‐dominated markets. A reduced favorite‐longshot bias is interpreted as evidence that insider trading on the exchanges “is not widespread” and “not as commonplace … as is sometimes portrayed in the media.” Given that the Shin measure assumes “betting with bookies,” whereas the exchanges represent “betting without bookies,” the present study employs the notion of ‘significant mover’ to empirically test for the presence of ‘known loser’ insider trading on the exchanges where traditional notions of bookmaking do not apply. Findings indicate that, far from being less problematized by insider trading compared to racetrack betting, activity aimed at profiting from “known losers” may be potentially commonplace on the exchanges. This includes profiting from horses that are unplaced. This study offers new insight into the efficiency of betting markets.     

Health insurance generosity and conditional coverage: Evidence from medicaid managed care in Kentucky

This article estimates the impact of the introduction of Medicaid managed care (MMC) on the formal Medicaid participation of children. We employ a quasi‐experimental approach exploiting the location‐specific timing of MMC implementation in Kentucky. Using data from the March Current Population Survey from 1995 to 2003, our findings suggest that the introduction of MMC increases the likelihood of being uninsured and decreases formal Medicaid participation. This finding is consistent with an increase in “conditional coverage,” waiting until medical care is needed to sign up or re‐enroll in Medicaid. These effects are concentrated among low‐income children and absent for high‐income children. We find no evidence of “crowd‐in,” substituting private coverage for Medicaid. These results are robust to multiple placebo tests and imply the potential for less formal participation (i.e., more conditional coverage) among the Affordable Care Act‐Medicaid expansion population (which is likely to be primarily covered under MMC) than is typically predicted.     

Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China

This paper is an empirical investigation of the effect of RMB-JPY volatility on Japan-China trade with a special emphasis on the impacts of the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime implemented on July 21, 2005. We estimated two types of volatility measures (one based on the ARCH model and the other the usual standard deviation) utilizing daily data from Jan. 2002 through Dec. 2011 and examined both short-run and long-run effects of this volatility on exports of each country to the other with an ARDL approach. The results indicate that Japan's exports to China are not affected by the exchange rate volatility, but China's exports to Japan are negatively influenced during the reform period. Furthermore, the level of the exchange rate has no influence on Japanese exports, but it has a significant impact on Chinese exports. This asymmetric result may be due to differences in the depth of financial markets and in the maturity of exporters of the two countries.     

An Economic Analysis of Audit and Nonaudit Services: The Trade‐off between Competition Crossovers and Knowledge Spillovers*

In this paper, I present a model in which both markets for audit services and nonaudit services (NAS) are oligopolistic. Accounting firms providing both audit services and NAS will employ oligopolistic competition in each of these markets. In addition to auditors' gaining “knowledge spillovers” from auditing to consulting or vice versa, oligopolistic competition in one market will influence the counterpart in the other market ‐ what I call “competition crossovers”. Although scope economies due to knowledge spillovers (for example, cost savings) are always beneficial to auditors, such benefits can entice accounting firms to adopt strategies (for example, price reductions) to compete aggressively in the audit market so that some, or all, firms become worse off. A trade‐off arises between these two economic forces in the two oligopolistic markets. Given the trade‐off between competition crossovers and knowledge spillovers, accounting firms may not reduce their audit prices, even though supplying NAS enables firms to decrease auditing costs — a nontrivial impact of oligopolistic competition in two markets on audit pricing. The empirical implication of my results is that because of competition‐crossover effects between the auditing and consulting service markets, finding empirical evidence for knowledge‐spillover benefits is likely to be difficult. Control variables for “audit‐market concentration” concerned with competition‐crossover effects and “auditor expertise” concerned with knowledge‐spillover benefits should be included in audit‐fee regressions to increase the power of empirical tests. With regard to policy implications, my analyses help explain the impact of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act on “market segmentation” and, hence, the profitability of accounting firms.     

Teaching Preparation and Placement in “Non‐top‐tier” Ph.D. Programs

In a recent article, Jacobson (2015) provides an invaluable economics job market guide for economics Ph.D. candidates from “non‐top‐tier” programs in the United States. Her treatment is detailed and, to a large extent, thorough. However, Jacobson fails to discuss the development of effective lead teaching experience in graduate school as a (potentially central) aspect of job market preparation. In the present comment, we develop and summarize a job posting and placement data set that focuses on Ph.D. candidates from non‐top‐tier programs. The data strongly suggests that the development of lead teaching experience in graduate school, rather than an optional line on one's vita, is an often pivotal element of realized job placement for Ph.D. candidates of non‐top‐tier programs. These findings corroborate with List's (2000) finding that, “a candidate's teaching portfolio was highly influential in the academic market” (p. 197). We also discuss the acquisition of lead teaching experience and benefits of early teaching experience that may extend beyond first job placement.     

Impact of European food safety border inspections on agri-food exports: Evidence from Chinese firms

The cost of complying with a sanitary standard is certain. However, such measure introduces uncertainty for exporters in relation to border rejections. Shipments may fail to pass inspections and may be refused entry into the importing country. This risk is shaped by variance in the quality of the exported product, and the stringency of the border controls. We examine how the risk of rejection at European borders on safety grounds is affecting Chinese agri-food exporters. We combine information from the European Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed with Chinese firm-level export data by product, destination and year for the period 2000–2011. Information externalities and reputation effects are important. Border rejections amplify the turnover among firms at the extensive margin of trade. This risk is curbing small exporters and resulting in a concentration of Chinese exports among big exporters.     

Currency Invoicing in Japanese Exports to East Asia: Implications for Yen Internationalization

The present paper examines currency invoicing in Japanese exports to East Asia by applying the pricing-to-market (PTM) theory. The notable aims of the present paper are to: (i) use a number of sample commodities obtained from the data on monthly series of exports based on the nine-digit Harmonized System; and (ii) examine currency invoicing practices of Japanese exporters by making a distinction between the long-run and short-run PTM under the framework of the error-correction model. Contrary to the results of previous reports, our study shows that Japanese exporters of electric machinery tend to stabilize US Dollar (USD)-denominated export prices in the short run in East Asian markets, implying that electric machinery products tend to be invoiced in USD in exports to East Asia. Given the USD-invoicing practices by Japanese electric machinery exporters, it is hard to expect the further use of the Yen in trade transactions because the electric machinery industry plays a major role in facilitating trade and investment between Japan and East Asia.     

‘Eating the bread out of their mouth’: Antwerp's export trade and generalized institutions, 1544–5

This article studies the distribution of exports from mid‐sixteenth‐century Antwerp at the individual and group level (grouped by merchant origin). Recently, scholars have argued that sixteenth‐century Antwerp, and in its wake a series of other cities, hosted an open‐access market as a result of an evolution towards open‐access institutions. However, the direct effect of this institutional change on merchant enterprise is hard to measure. Relying on detailed tax records, preferences at the individual merchant level for particular destinations and commodities are documented, to evaluate whether exporters had equal chances in Antwerp's export market. A few exporters had large export shares next to a multitude of smaller merchants. The exports of these smaller merchants to distant destinations and their participation in the export of important products demonstrate a fairly level commercial playing field with regard to their larger‐scale colleagues. Foreign traders had access to trade in Low Countries products, while local merchants were active in the export of major transit products. The activities of the latter group are particularly important; contrary to previous literature, Low Countries traders did not differ in their preference for home‐grown products.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S POST‐LIBERALISED CAPITAL FLOWS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS

This study used Christiano and Fitzgerald filtered correlation analysis to investigate the cyclical relationships between South Africa's post‐liberalised capital flows and domestic business cycle fluctuations. The results show that foreign direct investment inflows are counter‐cyclical and proactive, while the “hot” inflows are acyclical. Thus, South Africa's post‐liberalisation “hot” inflows have not been significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations. In contrast, the capital outflows are found to be consistently procyclical and proactive, suggesting that the outflows are more significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations than the capital inflows. In addition, it is found that the cyclical relationships between the capital inflows and the business cycle components of exports, household consumption and gross fixed investment are generally procyclical, except for portfolio inflows, which have a counter‐cyclical relationship with fixed investment. In contrast, the capital outflows are counter‐cyclically associated with exports and household consumption, and procyclically associated with fixed investment.     

Learning the “Craft” of Auditing: A Dynamic View of Auditors' On‐the‐Job Learning

We investigate how auditors learn the technical aspects of their professional role while performing client engagements, and how that learning process has been shaped by changes in societal, economic, and regulatory forces. Prior studies explicitly recognize that auditors need social skills and demeanor consistent with professional norms as well as requisite knowledge, but those studies generally focus on the processes through which new auditors are molded toward consistency with social norms. In contrast, we focus on forces affecting the transfer of technical knowledge from supervisor (guide) to subordinate (learner) in the everyday work setting. Our evidence derives from semi‐structured interviews with 30 relatively new and more experienced audit partners at one Big 4 firm, thus spanning multiple “generations” of experience. Results confirm that auditors primarily acquire technical knowledge on the job, through the interactions among individual engagement team members. However, partners express concern about changes in the practice environment that may limit effectiveness of on‐the‐job learning, including characteristics of personnel, the approach to formal training at induction, supervisors' reluctance to provide candid feedback, regulatory and economic pressures, and the increased distraction, and reduced interpersonal contact associated with the use of information technology. At the end of the day, our findings raise implications for practice regarding the difficulty of developing effective learning conditions for auditors in the face of these challenges.     

Can the Japanese agri-food producers survive under freer trade? A general equilibrium analysis with farm heterogeneity and product differentiation

The roles of firm heterogeneity and product differentiation in the manufacturing industries have attracted research attention on the “new new trade theory.” The agricultural sectors also produce new goods using product differentiation through breeding, branding, and other activities. In reaction to globalization, the Japanese Government has sought to revitalize its agri-food sectors by promoting exports of differentiated products. This computable general equilibrium study examines the relevance of this policy, focusing on five agri-food sectors other than grains. We simulate Japan’s three trade deals and a policy intervention that cuts fixed export costs to promote exports. We show that only a few agri-food sectors can increase exports and maintain domestic output under freer trade, and that export promotion would markedly increase entrants into export markets and increase exports of the vegetables and fruit, and processed food product sectors. In these trade deals, tariff and nontariff barriers have different impacts on trade, output, and farm/firm entry.     

EXPLORING THE IMPORTANCE OF EXCESS FEMALE MORTALITY AND DISCRIMINATION IN “NATALITY” IN EXPLAINING THE “LOWNESS” OF THE SEX RATIO IN INDIA

The beginning of the present century has been marked by a shift in attention from “excess” female mortality to discrimination in natality in explaining the “lowness” of the sex ratio or proportion of women in India's population. Such a shift in focus seemingly suggests that discrimination in intra‐family allocation of resources has reduced substantially in India. In this context, an attempt has been made to decompose the observed lowness of the sex ratio in India vis‐à‐vis that of the stable population into that attributable to: (1) age structure difference, (2) excess female mortality, and (3) abnormalities in sex ratios at birth in India. Estimated contributions by each factor suggest that, as late as 2001, excess female mortality or the lowness of the relative survival advantage of women is the single most important determinant of “missing” women in India. The results also point to the importance of age structure difference, which accounts for a little more than 17% of the lowness of the sex ratio in India in 2001.     

Industry‐specific Exchange Rate Fluctuations,Japanese Exports and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Using a panel vector autoregression approach and industry breakdown data for financial constraints obtained from the Bank of Japan's Tankan (Short‐Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan) database, this study empirically investigates whether and how Japanese firms' financial constraints (internal and external) influence the response of Japanese sectoral exports to an exchange rate shock. Furthermore, we use the industry‐specific real effective exchange rate data developed by to allow for different movements of real effective exchange rates across industries. It is found that financial constraints have a significant influence on Japanese exports in response to exchange rate shocks. Japanese exporters with either lower internal financial constraints or external financial constraints are less affected by the yen's appreciation. In addition, if firms face high external financial constraints, only reducing the internal financial constraints cannot help them mitigate the impact of the yen's appreciation on their exports. Thus, an accommodative financial environment also plays an important role in alleviating the impact that the yen's appreciation has on Japanese exports.     

Successful Adjustment in Indian Industry: the Case of Ludhiana's Woolen Knitwear Cluster

This paper examines the case of adjustment in a labor-intensive export industry (woolen knitwear) to understand how traditional sectors in developing regions cope with external crises and rise above them. India's woolen knitwear industry, concentrated in Ludhiana, recently survived two crises—the collapse of its largest export market (the former Soviet Union), and the simultaneous opening up of the domestic market to freer trade. After an unusually short downturn, the cluster not only recovered rapidly, but is increasingly diversifying into more demanding and competitive external markets. Four factors are key to explaining this surprisingly resilient recovery. First, the best performing firms had a strong and simultaneous presence in dynamic segments of the domestic market alongside exports. This generated key organizational learning, and built managerial and production capacities that helped firms adapt quickly to more demanding markets later. Second, an important feature of the learning relationship between first-time exporters and their foreign buyers was the small-scale nature of contracts and a “customization of fit” between the producer and the feedback-giving intermediary. Third, better performing firms paid equal if not greater attention to making organizational changes in their work practices than to the purchase of new equipment. Fourth, the embedded nature of production networks, and the government's past programs to assist local firms have indirectly helped create a dynamic middle-tier of locally-rooted exporters who appear to be leading the cluster's transformation and modernization.     

Integration, trade costs and the export behaviour of firms: Empirical evidence on the venables model

Conclusions Theoretical considerations and empirical evidence presented in this paper clearly indicate that economic integration helps firms in old member countries to augment their exports to the new member states. The increase in the export value is, to a large extent, due to new exporters entering the new markets, and only to a small extent due to an increase in average export value per firm. This effect is stronger for small-scale exporters than for medium- and large-scale exporters. In addition to the other benefits, economic integration appears to be peculiarly beneficial to small firms, as it allows them to access new markets previously closed to them.     

Distance to Growing Markets and Sub‐Saharan African Exports*

Abstract: A typical person in sub‐Saharan Africa is a long way from world markets and is further from world markets now than in 1980. This partly reflects slower growth within Africa than for the world as a whole. Despite slower growth in Africa, African exports have become increasingly regionalized. By 2005, a country in Africa typically exported more than twice as much to a country in its own region as would be expected based on economic size and bilateral distance. This regionalization was not present in the early 1980s and has become stronger over time. We find evidence of positive neighborhood effects through exports, but sub‐Saharan countries benefit less from growth in their own region than this typical relationship indicates. Given the small share of exports destined to their neighbors, low‐income countries in sub‐Saharan Africa experience relatively modest export growth from growth in the region. These factors imply that African countries are unlikely to pull each other out of poverty and a regional focus may be less effective than a focus on countries outside of the region.