Privatization and Price Liberalization: Comparative Analysis

Two transition paths from a mixed to market economy are investigated: a gradual increase in state retail prices and a gradual decrease of the state sector's share of the economy. The analysis is carried out in the framework of a general equilibrium model of a mixed economy with production. It is shown that, for a representative agent, privatization is better than price liberalization during the entire transition period regardless of individual preferences. For an economy with heterogeneous agents the conclusion remains valid for rich agents, but it is indeterminate for poor agents.J. Comp. Econom.,June 1997,24(3), pp. 313–334. Central Institute of Economics and Mathematics, Moscow 117418, Russia.     

双轨制、价格市场化与总量投资分析

本文在新古典投资理论的框架下引入中国转轨时期的制度性因素，建立包括私有部门、国企部门以及政府部门的投资行为模型，论证了国有企业多重目标而导致其过度投资和资本积累，同时解释了在转轨过程中出现的诸如“国退民进”等演化现象，论证了政府倾向于干预经济，施行“逆风向行事”规则，然而因其对项目真实利润的不可准确估测性会导致投资的过度波动，从而表明政府投资可能是经济中投资波动的来源。     

资本账户开放对股票价格传导机制研究

改革开放以来,伴随着我国资本账户开放的进一步深入,我国资本市场与国际资本市场的联系更加紧密,受到国际资本市场的影响更加深重.最近几年,资本账户开放对我国股票市场价格和收益的传导作用得到了充分的体现,在资本账户开放的进程中,股票收益率受到国际市场利率的影响作用不断加强.资本账户开放是一把利弊兼有的"双刃剑",在推动股票价格和收益率提高的同时,也给股票市场带来了巨大的风险.这首先是大量国际短期资本的涌入所导致的股票市场价格波动的风险;其次是我国金融监管水平相对落后或金融监管无效性所引致的监管风险;再次是国内券商所面临的竞争性风险.资本账户开放作为我国改革开放的一项重要内容,我们一定要正视资本账户开放给股票市场带来的风险,通过制度建设、加强监管、正确设计资本账户开放次序以及提高国内金融机构竞争力等措施来规避风险,从而促进我国金融开放的顺利进行.     

Quantifying the trade-reducing effect of embargoes: Firm-level evidence from Russia

In 2014, Russia responded to sanctions imposed by a coalition of Western countries with a retaliatory import embargo. I draw on this unique case study and a customs data set on firm-level import transactions to investigate the ramifications of Russia's counter-sanctions on firm-level foreign trade. Using detailed data and a triple-difference estimation strategy, I examine micro-level dynamics and heterogeneities that aggregate data alone do not reveal. I identify the effects of the embargo on the extensive margin (the probability that a firm imports a particular product from a given country in a particular time period) and the intensive margin (the value of a firm's import transaction) of firm-level trade, as well as its effects on logged unit values. The main findings of this study show that the embargo had statistically significant negative impacts on extensive and intensive margins of firm-level trade. I also pinpoint evidence of multiple exemptions from the embargo and a large degree of heterogeneity of firm-level responses to the embargo based on firm attributes, such as firm size and government connection.     

Trade Liberalization in Egypt

A computable general equilibrium model of Egypt is developed to analyze proposed reforms in its trade policies, including a partnership agreement with the European Union. The model has multiple trading regions and allows for administrative trade barriers and tariffs. The paper reports computations of the revenue impacts of trade liberalization and the required changes in distortionary commodity taxes to maintain a fixed real government budget. Egypt's greatest potential gains come from removing its administrative trade barriers while adopting globally free trade. The partnership agreement with the EU could lower or raise Egypt's welfare, depending on prior trade reform.     

Quantifying globalization

Globalization is much debated, but is it possible to make reliable ranks of which countries are the most integrated internationally? Traditionally resort is taken to trade measures, but even considering only economic integration this measure disregards a number of aspects. This paper proposes a single measure or index of globalization based on several indicators of economic integration combined by use of the multivariate technique of factor analysis. The index is calculated for 23 OECD countries, and among the findings are that Ireland is ranked as the most globalized country during the 1990s, while the UK was at the top during the 1980s. Some of the most notable changes in the rankings are the decline of the USA, Canada, and to a lesser extent Japan and Norway. There are notable improvements in the ranking for Finland, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. For Portugal and Spain the changes seem to follow EU membership in the mid-1980s.     

Trade Liberalization with Heterogeneous Firms

This paper examines the various aspects of trade liberalization with heterogeneous firms using the Melitz (2003 ) model. We find a number of novel results and effects including a Stolper–Samuelson‐like result and several results related to the volume of trade, which are empirically testable. We also analyze what might be called an anti‐variety effect as the result of trade liberalization. We show that this effect is most pronounced for small countries. This resonates with the often voiced criticism from antiglobalists that globalization leads the world to become more homogeneous by eliminating local specialties. Nevertheless, we find that trade liberalization always leads to welfare gains in the model.     

Child Labour and Trade Liberalization

The paper analyses the implications of trade liberalization on the incidence of child labour in a two-sector general equilibrium framework. The supply function of child labour has been derived from the utility-maximizing behaviour of the working families. The paper finds that the effect of trade liberalization on the incidence of child labour crucially hinges on the relative factor intensities of the two sectors.     

Trade Liberalization and Technology Diffusion

The paper considers the role of technology diffusion and trade liberalization for the catching‐up of structurally backward countries. A New Economic Geography model is presented that accounts for firm entry/exit and international mobility of skilled labor employed in public R&D sectors. This raises the traditional agglomeration effects in a core–periphery setting as firms and mobile factors usually cluster within spatial agglomerations. With international technology diffusion, however, there is a counteracting effect on the traditional agglomeration effects as firms in the periphery also benefit from increasing R&D expenditures in the core lowering entry costs for firms. It is found that the catching‐up of structurally backward countries is spurred not only as a result of trade integration but also because of technology diffusion.     

Trade Liberalization and Technology Choice

This paper considers the links between trade liberalization and technology choice in the nonliberalizing country. Trade‐liberalization‐induced changes in relative product prices have direct effects on equilibrium relative factor returns. The consequent changes in relative input costs may also lead producers to switch to alternative technologies, which will in turn induce a further indirect change in relative factor returns. Will this indirect affect exacerbate or ameliorate the direct effect on relative factor returns? It is found that this depends on the relative cost savings across sectors and factor cost shares.     

Why Environmentalists Resist Trade Liberalization

We build a two-country differential game model of polluting oligopoly to consider the effects of trade liberalization. As in static models, the opening of trade promotes competition but expands global pollution. Characterizing open-loop and feedback strategies, we derive a sufficient condition for losses from trade. This losses-from-trade proposition could provide a rationale for persistent resistance to globalization by environmentalists.     

Revenue Motives and Trade Liberalization

Governments in more-developed economies partially compensate import-competing industries when world prices fall, i.e., they lean against the wind. Less-developed economies often liberalize in response to the same shock. We use a political-support maximization model with revenue motives to derive conditions under which a rational policymaker would respond to lower woild prices by reducing tariff protection for an import-competing industry. An initial tariff that exceeds the maximum revenue level proves necessary but not sufficient for politically optimal liberalization following a fall in the world price of the importable good.     

论异质性厂商下的贸易自由化

1．引言近十年的经验研究表明,标准的新贸易理论对于同质厂商的假设忽略了许多现实的重要因素。例如,并非所有的厂商都在贸易部门进行贸易,而且同一部门内的出口厂商的生产力一般要高于该部门的非出口厂商(A．W,Chung和Roberts 2000,Bernard和Jensen 1995,1999a,b,2001；Clerides,Lach和Tybout 1998；Eaton,Kortum和Kramarz 2004；参见Tybout 2003 for a survey)。     

进口自由化与企业利润率

本文研究了最终品进口自由化对本国纯内销企业利润率的影响。短期均衡时,最终品进口自由化使得更多外国企业向本国市场出口,加剧了本国产品市场的竞争,降低了本国纯内销企业的利润率。而在长期,由于企业能够充分进入和退出市场,一部分本国企业会退出市场,均衡时留下来的企业利润率升高。本文首先通过理论模型解释了上述现象,随后利用我国2000—2007年规模以上制造业企业层面的面板数据进行了实证检验,验证了进口自由化对企业利润率影响的渠道。实证结果发现,中间品关税下降会对本国纯内销企业的利润率产生正向影响。最后,理论模型和实证结果还证明了,其他条件相同时,企业的生产率越高,其利润率越高。     

Endogenous Growth and Trade Liberalization

We develop an endogenous growth model in which trade liberalization has a positive effect on growth. This effect does not depend on marginal re-allocations nor on knowledge-spillovers. Rather, it is due solely to the increase in market size following the integration of product markets. Our result contradicts a widely-help view that trade on physical goodsper sehas no consequences for long-run growth.[F15]     

Trade Liberalization and Cartel Stability

Can reduced trade barriers promote a collusive understanding about not exporting into each others domestic markets? Reduced trade costs increase the short‐run gains from starting exporting, but can also make the long‐run punishment of such a strategy harsher. If collusion on prices is supported by a trigger strategy, a reduction in trade costs weakens competition in the sense that collusion is easier to sustain. In a corresponding model with collusion on quantities, this conclusion is reversed. The authors also discuss how results change if grim trigger strategies are replaced by stick‐and‐carrot punishments.     

Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth

This paper presents a trade model with firm‐level productivity differences and R&D‐driven growth. Trade liberalization causes the least productive firms to exit but also slows the development of new products. The overall effect on productivity growth depends on the size of intertemporal knowledge spillovers in R&D. When these spillovers are relatively weak, then trade liberalization promotes productivity growth in the short run and makes consumers better off in the long run. However, when these spillovers are relatively strong, then trade liberalization retards productivity growth in the short run and makes consumers worse off in the long run.