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1.
David Hakken   《Futures》2000,32(8)
My research focuses on the possible future transformations of work in the increasingly dominant computer-technology-based work environment. I surmise that one characteristic that future work might take the form of is a renewed and expanded “sociality”, in which co-operation, self-management, and qualitative social interaction are fostered to counter the potentially isolating computer-mediated environment. Since the advantage of such new technologies is also their opposite capacity to expand communication, one must encourage more communication to make use of these capabilities. Although I am somewhat skeptical about the current climate of cyberenthusiasm, I recognize that, as ethnographers, we need to take these speculations seriously and, where possible, participate actively in the creation of the kinds of futures which we prefer. I have taken a participant–observation approach to the study of “proto-cyberspace” venues which are widely seen as suggestive of the social relations of a future new social formation. I begin this essay by analyzing the argument for the resocialing hypothesis, then consider the opposite arguments which see a degradation of social relations in the work environment. Data have been derived primarily from my studies of automated information technology-mediated labor processes in the USA, the UK, and the Nordic countries.  相似文献   

2.
We examine in this paper how certain instruments link science and the economy through acting on capital budgeting decisions, and in doing so how they contribute to the process of making markets. We use the term “mediating instruments” to refer to those practices that frame the capital spending decisions of individual firms and agencies, and that help to align them with investments made by other firms and agencies in the same or related industries. Our substantive focus is on the microprocessor industry, and the roles of “Moore’s Law” and “technology roadmaps”. We examine the ways in which these instruments envision a future, and how they link a multitude of actors and domains in such a way that the making of future markets for microprocessors and related devices can continue. The paper begins with a discussion of existing literatures on capital budgeting, science studies, and recent economic sociology, together with the reasoning behind the notion of “mediating instruments”. We then address the substantive issues in three stages. Firstly, we consider the role of “Moore’s Law” in shaping the fundamental expectations of an entire set of industries about rates of increase in the power and complexity of semiconductor devices, and the timing of those increases. Secondly, we examine the roles of “technology roadmaps” in translating the simplified imperatives of Moore’s Law into a framework that can guide and encourage the myriad of highly uncertain and confidential investment decisions of firms and other agencies. Thirdly, we explore one particular and recent example of major capital investment, that of post-optical lithography. The paper seeks to help remedy the empirical deficit in studies of capital budgeting practices, and to demonstrate that investment is much more than a matter of valuation techniques. We argue, through the case of the microprocessor industry, for greater attention to investment as an inter-firm and inter-agency process, thus lessening the fixation in studies of capital budgeting on the traditional hierarchical and bounded organization. In addition, we seek to extend and illustrate empirically the richness of the notion of “mediating instruments” for researchers in accounting, science studies, and economic sociology.  相似文献   

3.
Trevor Hancock 《Futures》1999,31(5):1471
If we are to improve the health of the population and reduce the inequalities in health that plague our communities and our planet, we will have to give greater attention to the determinants of health. The reform of the health care system, necessary though it is, will never be sufficient; we need to reform our whole society and in particular to focus on human rather than economic development. At the community level we need to create healthy communities that are “health-creating systems” of environmental, social and human development, as well as health care systems that focus first on improving and maintaining health. Such a “bottom-down” health care system would see the hospital become once again the place of last resort (but still a potentially important partner in creating healthier communities) and would focus instead on how to provide health promotion and health care from the household level up.  相似文献   

4.
This paper focuses on models of political behavior that implicitly or explicitly form the foundation for empirical economic consequences studies in accounting. The studies that have appeared adopt a single-period of single-agendum-item perspective. This paper discusses differences in rational political behavior that arise naturally in single-period versus multiperiod settings. The behavioral implications of varying configurations of available information on agents' “ preferences” are also considered. Because of the tremendously complex empirical domain being studied, examples are relied on heavily to motivate the discussion rather than engaging in a formal modeling exercise.  相似文献   

5.
Ramanna [2007. The implications of unverifiable fair-value accounting: evidence from the political economy of goodwill accounting, Journal of Accounting and Economics] provides interesting and novel evidence on how firms use contributions from their political action committees (PACs) to members of Congress as a means of lobbying for preferred positions on the two exposure drafts that led to SFAS-141 and SFAS-142. My discussion raises some concerns about his main conclusion: that pooling firms lobbied the FASB to obtain a “fair-value”-based impairment rule to facilitate their ability to manipulate financial statements. I offer a more benign explanation and make some other observations about how this line of research could proceed in the future.  相似文献   

6.
D. G. MacGregor   《Futures》2003,35(6):575-588
Humankind has begun to reap one of the most valued harvests of its scientific and technological pursuits: a significant increase in human longevity. We now live longer than ever before, due in large part to advances in medicine and health care that provide those who have the opportunity to afford them a lifespan that for many approaches or exceeds the 100-year mark. It is now within the realm of possibility that people will live lives of 125 years or more within the next century. However, our ability to increase physical longevity may have outstripped our ability to deal individually and socially with these new lives, these new existences that go well beyond what has traditionally been considered a “working life”. How well-prepared are we psychologically to cope with the meaning of a life that extends to as much as 150 years or more? In this new “age of longevity”, what are the challenges for psychology as a resource for humanity in its quest to give definition to the experience of being alive, as well as for managing the affairs of everyday life? Traditional developmental theories in psychology tend to articulate early stages of life in detail, but are generally mute on the matter of later life. Cognitive psychology has been inclined to view longevity as leading to a deterioration of mental faculties due to “aging”. This paper examines the psychological implications of increased lifespans from an optimistic perspective by reviewing current developments in research on cognition, emotion and aging. The review identifies trends in psychology that, if emphasized and strengthened, may lead to improved theoretical frameworks that cast longevity in a positive light, and that identify how people can find meaning and fulfillment throughout their whole lifespan.
“Grow old along with me! The best is yet to be, The last of life for which the first was made.” Robert Browning “Rabbi Ben Ezra”
I first encountered Browning’s works as an undergraduate, and being a pre-engineering student at the time my tendencies toward poetry were stunted to say the best. Few of the great works of literature my teachers compelled me to read at that stage of my life and development made enough of an impact to last beyond the length of the course requiring their reading. Much has changed since then and my interests in literature and what literature has to say that is of value for our lives has deepened. But Browning’s enthusiastic call to join him in aging has always been a fascination. Indeed, what could be more of a contradiction to modern attitudes about becoming elderly than to claim “the best is yet to be”? What can be more of a challenge to how we approach the relationship between being young and being old than to claim that the last of life is “for which the first was meant”? What can the possible rewards of the golden years be that transcend the glorious enthusiasms, unfettered optimisms, and just pure physical conveniences of being young? Or, was Browning simply trying to sucker us all into a fait accompli, the hopeful outcome of which is the envy of the very youth that the aged often envy so much?There is little enough envy of the aged today. I approach these years with great caution, recognizing that how I look upon those who are two decades older than myself will, in turn, condition me to see myself in those years much in the way that I see them now. “Aging” is not something anyone really wants to do. We want to, at best, “grow older”, a perspective that carries with it a more positive spin: growing wiser, growing up, or simply “growing” with all of its new-age connotations of personal enlightenment and becoming. I am not “aging”, I am “becoming at one”.The language we have adopted to talk about the time-course of life, and particularly about the years in the latter third of that course, does much to frame both how we live those years and how we anticipate them in our youth. Our expectations are ones of decline, physical debilitation and mental infirmity. We “retire”, as in withdrawal into seclusion, away from the mainstream of life and into the backwater eddy of inaction. On the shelf.Much of this view has been reinforced by how humanity has approached examining this aspect of its own time course through science. We study aging with an eye to how its effects influence the abilities of those so afflicted to perform or operate compared to those who still have a grasp on their full faculties. And, of course, we find that as people grow older, they do not approach life in the same way as do younger people.Part of our view on life comes from the very way in which science is funded: those interested in the last of life often receive their support from the National Institute on Aging, not the National Institute on The Last of Life for Which the First Was Made. Research agendas often focus on identifying sources of infirmity and potential prostheses, either physical or social, that can ease the lives of the elderly on their way toward achieving the goal of successful aging. All too often, success in aging means imposing relatively few demands on social resources or on the lives of younger people, such as family members. In our “ageist” society, elderliness is not generally equated with status and stature. Less and less, the young “listen” to the old out of deep interest in their lives and their experiences. Wisdom is the providence of the freshly matured and recently educated.The shortcomings of life in the advancing years are many and well-documented in the research literature. Memory spans decrease, information retrieval becomes less reliable, and new information is less readily assimilated. As people become older, they appear to rely more and more on automatic processing of information, quick associations and the like, rather than deliberative and conscious reasoning [1]. For the older mind, intuition is at least moderately preferred over analysis. For example, younger people tend to interpret stories analytically, focusing on details, while older people tend to focus less on a story’s details and more on its “gist” and its underlying significance to things that are important to them [2], and tend to do better at grasping and dealing with information in terms of its holistic meaning [3 and 4].The effects of these differences in information processing between young and old can be seen in practical matters of everyday life, such as decision making and judgment. Johnson [5], for example, found that older adults use simplifying decision strategies more often than younger adults. These strategies, such as noncompensatory rules that consider only the positive or the negative aspects of a decision option but not both, relieve one of the psychological burden of making complex and effortful tradeoffs, at the possible expense of efficiency and accuracy. Chasseigne et al. [6] found that as people age, they become less consistent in their use of information in making judgments and predictions; even reducing the overall information load and demands on memory does little to improve the reliability of their judgments. 1  相似文献   

7.
This study adds to research which examines the construct validity of coefficients of cue importance in studies concerned with how decision-makers use accounting information in formulating judgments (see Larcker & Lessig, The Accounting Review, January, 1983, pp. 58–77; Selling & Shank, Accounting, Organizations and Society, 1989, pp. 65–77). Historically, accounting studies have modelled cue importance with almost exclusive reliance upon linear models. But as the Selling & Shank study indicates, inferring the importance of accounting cues through reliance upon only one kind of model can leave “method variance” undetected and raises threats to the construct validity of coefficients (see Cook & Campbell, Quasi-experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings, 1979, pp. 59–70). To the extent that cue importance appears similar across models, then the model coefficients are presumed more valid. While Selling & Shank compare linear models to process tracing models, we compare a linear model to an eigenvector-scaling routine known as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (see Saaty, The Analytic Hierarchy Process, 1980). As with Selling & Shank, we find that the importance of cues is sensitive to model choice, suggesting that more research is needed into method variance before judgments can be made with respect to the construct validity of linear coefficients in accounting studies.  相似文献   

8.
Good communication skills continue to be viewed as critical for success in accounting. This paper demonstrates a writing-skills “intervention” that deals with faulty modifiers, a grammatical problem that can inhibit accounting students and professionals from achieving the clarity and conciseness widely regarded as essential in the accounting profession. The intervention consists of a handout distributed to students – fashioned to sensitize them to the pervasiveness of faulty modifiers and help them avoid the problem – and an in-class discussion of the handout. By design, this intervention is both inexpensive and unobtrusive. For the accounting instructor, we provide in the body of the paper a technical, but unpedantic and informal, analysis of faulty modifiers, including numerous examples of the problem, accompanied by alternative corrections. To date, few papers in the accounting education literature that deal with writing problems present direct assessment evidence. To assess the efficacy and perceived value of our learning intervention, we collected assessment data – both direct (i.e., a set of three diagnostic tests) and indirect (i.e., feedback from a student questionnaire) from two institutions at which our learning intervention was tested. These data suggest than an intervention of the sort described here can be valuable in remedying discrete weaknesses of student writing. In a larger sense, we believe our paper can be used as a model for the development of similar “interventions” that cover other grammatical problems, and that can serve either as stand-alone entities (similar to the method proposed by Reinstein and Houston (2004) [Using the Securities and Exchange Commission’s “plain English” guidelines to improve accounting students’ writing skills. Journal of Accounting Education, 22, 53–67]) or as complementary resources to more comprehensive and formal writing programs.  相似文献   

9.
We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.  相似文献   

10.
Bob Garvey  Geof Alred   《Futures》2001,33(6):519
This paper explores mentoring in the light of complexity theory and the premium placed upon knowledge in organisational viability. A key question is “what is the role of mentoring, as a developmental and knowledge creating process, in a complex environment?” There are two parts to the discussion. First, we explore complexity at work, and what it means for the individual. We link the central ideas of complexity theory with the notion of a ‘corporate curriculum’, an inclusive concept intended to capture the complex nature of learning at work, in all its variants. Secondly, we speculate on the contribution mentoring can make in complex organisations where employees are part of a knowledge economy by virtue of being knowledge producers and being engaged in learning at work. The environments in which we work are becoming more complex and mentoring is also complex. There is a synergy here. For people living in complexity where there are few rules, no right answers and no predictable outcomes, we suggest that mentoring can play a distinctive role in helping people to ‘tolerate’ complexity and remain effective.  相似文献   

11.
Paul J. Werbos   《Futures》2009,41(8):547-553
This paper revisits the core issues of space policy from the viewpoint of optimal decision theory. First it argues for a metric: maximizing the probability that humans and their technology in space someday reach what Rostow called the “economic takeoff” point where autonomous growth becomes possible, not bound by the rate of growth on earth. Next it discusses three concrete requirements to reach that point: benefits to earth which exceed costs to earth, large and diverse enough “exports” from space to earth, and advancements in technology and infrastructure. Energy from space (ES) is now one of the most promising export possibilities, based on what was learned in the last open US government effort on that topic, “JIETSSP,” led jointly by NSF and NASA. I review several options for ES, and propose a new one which, while slightly riskier, offers real hope of electricity at a price that could compete with coal and fission-plus-enrichment.  相似文献   

12.
Visual images are integral elements within corporate annual reports. Yet, these visual images have been largely ignored in accounting research. We begin to explore the significance of selected visual images appearing in U.S. annual reports during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Our intent is not to produce a general survey of images, but rather to offer different “ways of seeing” images and through these “ways of seeing” to encourage a critical dialogue that focuses upon the representational, ideological and constitutive role of images in annual reports. Our first way of seeing views the image as transparently conveying an intended corporate message. The second way of seeing draws upon neo-Marxist aesthetic literature and considers the ways in which images in annual reports may be mined for their ideological content and may also reveal society's deep structures of social classification, institutional forms and relationships. Finally, we employ critical postmodernist art theory to see images in terms of their constitutive role in creating different types of human subjectivities and realities. We argue that this way of seeing creates the potential for new voices to be heard and the possibility to subvert the dualisms typical of the totalizing theories of modernity.  相似文献   

13.
It is argued in this paper that organizations are “living purposeful” or “adaptively rational” systems whose survival depends on their ability to interact successfully, on a continual basis, with the surrounding environment. Three states of the external organizational environment — controllable, partially controllable and uncontrollable — are identified, and the information characteristics of each state are discussed. The approaches that organizations can adopt to collect information on the environment are also discussed; these approaches use externally-based data sources and modeling and/or analytic techniques. On these bases, we consider effective strategies and methodologies which organizations can adopt for processing, evaluating and communicating information about the external environment to satisfy decision-making requirements.  相似文献   

14.
This paper revisits evidence on the correlates of sourcing decisions in the US auto industry to see whether adoption of new contracting terms and early involvement of suppliers in design activities (e.g. “relational contracting”) yields different results as compared to previous findings. Previous studies find that US auto firms insource complex parts that require investments in specific assets. Absent large differences in production costs, the results suggest that transactions costs associated with external suppliers exceed transactions costs associated with internal suppliers (e.g. loss of high powered incentives). Using data on 156 sourcing decisions for process tooling (dies) of a new car program we find that under the new relational contracting regime, transaction cost theory continues to have explanatory power for sourcing decisions; however, attributes that favored insourcing in previous studies favor outsourcing in this setting. Moreover, more complex subassemblies are associated with fewer distinct suppliers than expected — evidence of a tendency to co-locate decision rights to reduce transactions costs related to system interactions. After controlling for transaction characteristics that are associated with the sourcing decision, we find no evidence that outsourcing is associated with increased ex post opportunism by the firm (e.g. agreement about contract completion); however, outsourced parts are submitted by suppliers for evaluation significantly later than insourced parts (e.g. delivery holdup).  相似文献   

15.
Toward A Second-Generation Theory of Fiscal Federalism   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
Drawing on a wide range of literature and ideas, a new “second-generation theory of fiscal federalism” is emerging that provides new insights into the structure and working of federal systems. After a restatement and review of the first-generation theory, this paper surveys this new body of work and offers some thoughts on the ways in which it is extending our understanding of fiscal federalism and on its implications for the design of fiscal institutions.JEL Code: H77, H11  相似文献   

16.
Dennis Ray Morgan   《Futures》2009,41(10):683-693
This paper examines the foundation for two scenarios of the future depicting how human civilization might destroy itself and possibly bring about the extinction of the human race in the process. The scenarios are based upon the two human-generated “fires” deeply ingrained within industrial civilization: (1) the nuclear “fire” of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and their automated “launch on warning” alert systems and (2) the slow burning “fire” of global warming and runaway climate change. This paper also examines obstacles that are currently preventing the necessary first steps towards solving these problems.  相似文献   

17.
This article surveys the empirical research on the gender division of labour in Britain since pre-industrial times, seeking in particular to relate it to the history of the professions, which have been relatively little studied in this regard. It argues that industrialization brought about a less dramatic change in gender roles than is often believed. Neither simple economic nor simple biological explanations, or the influence of “domestic ideology”, can adequately explain continuing gender divisions.It relates the empirical data to the current state of feminist theory arguing that the “reserve army of labour” theory is not supported by the evidence, nor indeed is any existing body of theory. Rather a combination of theoretical perspectives, including those which incorporate male prejudice, must be used if we are to understand the long persistence of gender inequality in the workplace.  相似文献   

18.
Freddie Choo  Kim Tan   《Accounting Forum》2007,31(2):203-215
In this paper, we first describe a “Broken Trust” theory that was introduced by Albrecht el al. [Albrecht, W. S., Albrecht, C. C., & Albrecht, C. O. (2004). Fraud and corporate executives: Agency, Stewardship and Broken Trust. Journal of Forensic Accounting, 5, 109–130] to explain corporate executive Fraud. The Broken Trust theory is primarily based on an “Agency” theory from economic literature and a “Stewardship” theory from psychology literature. We next describe an “American Dream” theory from sociology literature to complement Albrecht el al.'s (2004) Broken Trust theory. Like the Broken Trust theory, the American Dream theory relates to a “Fraud Triangle” concept to explain corporate executive Fraud. Finally, we provide some anecdotal evidence from recent high profile corporate executive Fraud to explore the American Dream theory. We conclude our thoughts on corporate executive Fraud from a teaching perspective.  相似文献   

19.
According to the Quality Assurance Agency [QAA (2006). Section 6: Assessment of students, Code of practice for the assurance of academic quality and standards in higher education. <http://www.qaa.ac.uk/>. Accessed 14.03.2007] “Assessment describes any processes that appraise an individual’s knowledge, understanding, abilities or skills” and is inextricably linked to a course or programme’s intended learning outcomes. Assessment also has a fundamental effect on students’ learning where it serves a variety of purposes including evaluation, feedback and motivation. Assessment also provides a performance indicator for both students and staff. Computer-aided assessment (CAA) offers an option for “sustainable assessment” and provides opportunities for creating innovative assessment practices that help engage students and increase their motivation for learning. This paper reports the findings of a qualitative study where a series of on-line summative assessments were introduced into a first-year financial accounting course. Feedback from students obtained from an evaluative survey and focus group interviews indicates that assessment played a significant role in the teaching/learning process. That is, students perceived a beneficial impact on learning, motivation, and engagement.  相似文献   

20.
There has been significant concern in auditing about the effects of relying on prior working papers in planning audit procedures (“anchoring”). This study employed an experiment with varying information sets: prior working papers, current year information and “scenario” (summarized prior year information). Practicing auditors were asked to design a substantive audit program for a case where changes in the client's environment dictated additional procedures. A consensus program from three partners was used as a bench-mark. Experimental groups were about equally adaptive to the changing environment. However, auditors provided with prior working papers demonstrated lower efficiency. The scenario group exhibited both high relative effectiveness and efficiency, while current information subjects displayed the lowest overall level of performance.  相似文献   

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