运费衍生品创新与上海国际金融航运中心建设

运费衍生品是规避海运运费波动风险的管理工具。由于国内运费衍生品的缺乏,中国企业在2004年以来国际海运运费的剧烈波动中处于被动接受者的不利地位。借鉴国外运费衍生品的发展经验,以创新运费衍生品作为上海国际金融中心和国际航运中心建设的抓手,构建上海运费衍生品的交易、结算和信息平台,推动上海成为国际航运定价中心。     

推进我国利率衍生品市场发展的政策建议

利率衍生产品为我国银行间债券市场投资者提供了有效的利率风险管理及资产负债管理工具。我国利率衍生品业务推出以来,市场呈现分化走势。文章回顾了近年来我国利率衍生品市场运行情况,探讨其发展中的制约因素,并从完善产品序列、推动市场主体多元化等方面提出进一步推进我国利率衍生品市场发展的政策建议。     

金融危机背景下中国金融衍生品市场的发展

本轮金融危机被冠以衍生品泛滥之名,使得国内对发不发展和如何发展我国金融衍生品市场产生纷争。本文通过分析指出本次危机是系统性危机,金融衍生品是其复杂传导链条中的一个环节,不应担当危机爆发的主要责任。通过中美金融衍生品市场的比较,发现我国金融衍生品市场仍处于初级阶段,与差距逐渐缩小的中美债券市场规模、中美经济总量规模相比,中国金融衍生品市场发展缓慢,市场发展空间巨大。最后指出我们应该深化基础市场建设,逐步建立多层次的金融衍生产品市场结构,并建议商业银行培育自身金融衍生产品的核心竞争力,提升风险管理水平。     

航运企业运费衍生品风险管理和内部控制研究

08年金融危机使得不少航运企业因FFA业务导致巨额亏损甚至破产,以至于部分航运企业停止了FFA业务。但后金融危机时期国际航运业运价波动剧烈,不借助于FFA业务管理运费市场波动风险将使得航运企业面临巨大的经营风险。鉴于此,本文从FFA业务的风险特点出发,借助COSO框架阐述航运企业FFA业务风险管理和内部控制体系的构建思路。     

从国际比较中选择我国金融衍生品市场监管模式

随着我国金融衍生品市场逐步发展,金融机构和企业对金融衍生产品市场的参与程度正日益加深,探讨金融衍生产品市场的监管问题非常必要。本文拟通过借鉴发达国家监管模式,结合我国金融衍生品市场发展现状,尝试探讨适合我国金融衍生品市场发展的监管模式。     

“深度开发”里的生机——写在上海金融衍生产品交易所成立之前

“当前，我国资本市场股权分置改革正在积极稳妥地推进之中。随着股权分置这一历史遗留问题的逐步解决，客观上将消除推出股指期货等金融衍生产品的制度性障碍，为资本市场产品创新拓宽道路。证监会将积极推进与资本市场稳步发展相关的基础制度建设，统筹考虑，积极探索，适时推出股指期货等金融衍生产品，为投资者提供风险管理的工具。”这是中国证监会主席尚福林曾发表的一席讲话，让业界和媒体纷纷关注着我国金融衍生品市场的新动向和态势。随着我国首家专营金融衍生品的期货交易所选址上海，令这个业内关注已久的话题急速升温，种种迹象表明，在中国这个新兴的资本市场，金融衍生品正愈行愈近。     

上市公司使用金融衍生品避险动机的实证研究——来自金融保险业的经验证据

以我国2006—2008年金融、保险板块上市公司为研究样本,对我国上市公司使用金融衍生品的避险动机,运用Logstic归进行了研究。结果发现,只有公司规模与金融衍生品需求正相关。表明了我国金融衍生产品市场还处于发展初期,使用金融衍生品的公司参与避险的数量不多,资产规模小的金融机构风险管理经验尤为缺乏。     

国际外汇衍生市场发展与中国的选择

人民币汇率形成机制的改革，对我国外汇衍生产品市场的发展而言具有里程碑式的意义。如何借鉴国外数十年来外汇衍生产品市场发展的经验和教训、结合我国交际情况摸索探讨出一条既与国际接轨又适台我国国情的外汇衍生产品市场及风险管理体系，成为摆在我们面前的重要课题；本旨在通过介绍国外外汇衍生产品市场的发展历程及风险管理等方面，探讨我国外汇衍生产品发展的途径。     

宏观经济衍生产品及美国的经验

本文通过分析宏观经济风险管理方法的发展,论述了宏观经济衍生交易的原理,探讨了宏观互换和宏观期权的模型与计算,并详细分析了美国经济衍生品市场,对创建我国的宏观经济衍生品市场具有借鉴意义。     

我国金融衍生品发展存在的问题及对策

金融衍生品出现在20世纪70年代,它是一种以金融产品为基础进一步衍生出来的新型金融产品.金融衍生产品可以是期权、期货、远期或者互换,也可以是它们之间的组合,一般比基础金融产品复杂且具有更高的风险性.随着我国经济的快速发展,金融衍生产品也逐渐发展壮大,无论是在种类还是在规模和结构上都有了很大的发展.但就目前而言,我国的金融衍生品市场得发展水平还很低,滞后于我国经济发展的整体水平,存在这许多亟待完善的地方.改善衍生品发展的监管模式,完善衍生品市场的法律法规体系,加大衍生品的教育宣传,提高投资者的素质,是我国金融衍生品市场发展亟需解决的问题.     

Market risk model selection and medium-term risk with limited data: Application to ocean tanker freight markets

The estimation of medium-term market risk dictated by limited data availability, is a challenging issue of concern amongst academics and practitioners. This paper addresses the issue by exploiting the concepts of volatility and quantile scaling in order to determine the best method for extrapolating medium-term risk forecasts from high frequency data. Additionally, market risk model selection is investigated for a new dataset on ocean tanker freight rates, which refer to the income of the capital good — tanker vessels. Certain idiosyncrasies inherent in the very competitive shipping freight rate markets, such as excessive volatility, cyclicality of returns and the medium-term investment horizons – found in few other markets – make these issues challenging. Findings indicate that medium-term risk exposures can be estimated accurately by using an empirical scaling law which outperforms the conventional scaling laws of the square and tail index root of time. Regarding the market risk model selection for short-term investment horizons, findings contradict most studies on conventional financial assets: interestingly, freight rate market risk quantification favors simpler specifications, such as the GARCH and the historical simulation models.     

The Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Freight Forward Market: Evidence from Cointegration Tests

The current paper investigates the unbiasedness hypothesis of Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) prices in the freight over-the-counter (OTC) forward market trades. Cointegration techniques are employed to examine the hypothesis. The results indicate that: FFA prices one and two months before maturity are unbiased predictors of the realised spot freight rates for all investigated shipping routes; three months FFA prices for panamax Pacific routes are unbiased predictors of spot prices, while FFA prices for panamax Atlantic routes are found to be biased predictors of spot prices. This diverse evidence suggests that the validity of the unbiasedness hypothesis depends on the specific characteristics of the market under investigation, the selected trading route and the time to maturity of the contract. JEL classification G13, G14, C32     

Financing Shipping Companies and Shipping Operations: A Risk‐Management Perspective

Shipping has always been a volatile and cyclical business. The extreme changes in revenues, operating cash flows, and asset values during the recent financial crises have upset the usual means of financing shipping companies. While bank debt will remain important in the future, the new regulatory environment has been forcing shipping banks to shift these risks from their balance sheets to capital markets through instruments such as loan securitization. As a result, the shipping industry will increasingly look to capital markets for external funds. And shipping banks are likely to change from being commercial bank lending institutions to becoming more like investment banks that arrange a variety of financing solutions, including high yield bonds or public equity. Risk management will be central to shipping companies in this new environment. Shipping companies can manage their own risks by modifying operations, employing freight and vessel price derivatives, or adjusting their capital structures. To arrive at the value‐maximizing combination of these three basic methods, they must decide which risks to bear, which to manage internally, and which to transfer to the capital markets. These decisions require shipping financial managers to assess the effect of each risk on firm value, understand how each contributes to total risk, and determine the most cost‐effective way to limit that risk to an acceptable level.     

基于ARIMA模型预测我国2012年的货运量

本文的数据来源于《新中国60年统计资料汇编》、中华人民共和国国家统计局,根据《新中国60年统计资料汇编》里面0146.xls中1949-2008年全国货运量的数据、中华人民共和国国家统计局中2009、2010年月度与年度货运量数据,建立时间序列模型序列,运用ARIMA模型进行分析,主要包括时间序列分析、平稳化处理、模型的识别、模型的定阶和参数估计这四个主要步骤,运用Eviews6.0软件,对我国2011年和2012年的货运量进行了预测,为制定物流发展政策、确定物流基础设施建设规模、分析物流市场态势提供定量依据。     

After the tide: Commodity currencies and global trade

The decade prior to the Great Recession saw a boom in global trade and rising transportation costs. High-yielding commodity exporters׳ currencies appreciated, boosting carry trade profits. The Global Recession sharply reversed these trends. We interpret these facts with a two-country general equilibrium model that features specialization in production and endogenous fluctuations in trade costs. Slow adjustment in the shipping sector generates boom–bust cycles in freight rates and, as a consequence, in currency risk premia. We validate these predictions using global shipping data. Our calibrated model explains about 57% of the narrowing of interest rate differentials post-crisis.     

Accounting for UK rail freight track charges: privatisation, politics and the pursuit of private sector vested interests

In 1996, the UK government privatised the railway industry based on a separation of rail infrastructure from train operations. Track, stations and signalling were transferred to a private sector infrastructure company, Railtrack plc. Separate passenger and freight train operators were required to pay track access charges to Railtrack for use of its rail infrastructure.

In 2001, in an attempt to meet the government’s plan to expand freight traffic, the government-appointed rail regulator substantially reduced the amount of track charges payable to Railtrack by the freight operators. The resulting shortfall in Railtrack’s revenue is met by public subsidy from another regulatory agency, the Strategic Rail Authority.

A failure by the regulators to insist on rail freight growth targets or to impose any claw-back of the subsidies for non-performance is a tribute to weak political and legislative control over regulatory mechanisms and, to a certain extent, reflects the ‘capture’ of the state regulatory process by the freight industry.

The net result has been a decline in rail freight traffic, an increase in public subsidy and a substantial increase in the earnings of the largest freight operator.     

A longitudinal ethnographic study of night‐freight pilots

This paper records the lived reality of night‐freight operations at a UK‐registered airline. Observations were made over an 18‐month period. The paper answers calls for more research into the working and living conditions of night‐freight pilots. Pilots perceived numerous issues. These included cultural cleavage, terms and conditions, roster instability and the impact of night flying on physical and psychological health. Some issues (volatile rosters and deep first nights, for example) had the potential to increase operational risk. Two sub‐cultures were identified within the airline: the quality‐of‐working‐life sub‐culture and competitiveness and corporate survival sub‐culture. A ‘paradox of control’ was observed. While pilots controlled the aircraft in flight, their patterns and conditions of work were decided by roster managers, crewing officers and other office‐based technocrats. Technocrats’ directive power was resented by some pilots. Some claimed that technocrats did not understand the lived reality of the line, resulting in ‘uninformed’ decisions that augmented operational risk. The study involved a single airline. No claims are made for the generalisability of the findings. More studies are required.     

航运金融市场的需求特征及其对上海国际航运中心建设的启示

现代航运业的特点决定了航运业与金融业之间存在密切的联系,而航运金融市场作为航运市场与金融市场相结合的产物也具有独特的特征与发展条件。从航运金融市场的需求特征可以看出,航运金融市场发展的关键在于为金融机构提供一个良好的制度环境,降低金融机构从事航运金融业务的成本,便利金融机构在航运金融产品设计以及风险控制方面满足航运企业的实际需求,这也正是上海推动航运金融市场发展的政策目标。     

BDI与航运上市公司的股票价格关系——基于航运上市公司的面板数据分析

BDI（波罗的海干散货运价指数）是反映国际航运市场的重要指标之一，揭示了全球干散货船的运价水平及市场供需情况。目前，越来越多的航运企业成为上市公司，其在资本市场上的表现能通过股票价格充分体现。这篇文章主要运用面板模型，选取运输类、港口类及船舶制造类三种航运上市公司从2007年至今的股票价格数据，探讨BDI与其之间的数量关系，以航运公司为桥梁，分析航运市场与资本市场的内在联系。研究发现，BDI与国内航运上市公司的股票价格之间存在一定的关系，这一定程度上能为此类股票的投资者提供决策参考。