中国城市网络结构及空间关联性 ——来自"网络流"数据的分析

基于中国城市之间的关联特征和溢出效应,将人力资本变量纳入引力模型,运用社会网络分析和机器学习方法并依据主要节点城市的有向数据,考量城市网络结构及其关联性.结果显示:新引力模型可有效衡量样本城市的网络关联效应,金融状况、港口距离和高等教育资源丰裕度是决定城市引力流量重要原因,政府干预对城市引力流作用不明显;城市空间分布呈现明显的四级分层特征,但从人力资本对城市引力流影响看,作为中心城市的广州和深圳在网络拓扑中心的稳定性相对较弱.     

The evolution of futures in school education

School education seems to be mostly stuck in an outdated industrial era worldview, unable to sufficiently address the significance and increasing rapidity of changes to humanity that are upon us. An integrated forward-looking view should, now more than ever, be of central importance in how we educate. Yet there is little sign that—unlike corporations—school systems are recognising the true value of futures studies. A brief history of futures in school education shows the significant role played by the World Futures Studies Federation in its evolution to date. The article also introduces integral analysis as a way of opening up new possibilities to help school education develop due foresight and to more fully realise its potential as a prime facilitator in individual and cultural evolution.     

Overcoming spatial stratification of fintech inclusion: Inferences from across Chinese provinces to guide policy makers

Few studies have quantitatively analyzed the causes of the uneven development of fintech inclusion. We explore the factors influencing regional differences in China's fintech inclusion by focusing on the influencing factors' spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Fuzzy best-worst, standard deviation ellipse, and geographically temporally weighted regression methodologies were used to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors for 2011–2019. China's fintech inclusion has a higher persistent spatial imbalance in the east and a lower in the central and western regions. Regarding the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors, we find that the effects of economic development, financial supervision, transportation convenience, population structure and education level show obvious east-west differences. Regarding temporal heterogeneity, we find over our period that the impacts of economic development and financial supervision on fintech inclusion changed from negative to positive, with the positive effects of education level and population structure decreasing. We offer a framework for measuring regional fintech inclusion and practical policy suggestions for promoting coordinated development.     

人力资本投资与旅游产业发展的区域差异研究

以我国31个省的1999~2011年的面板数据为基础,实证中国不同地区人力资本投资对旅游业发展的影响。结果表明,高等教育对旅游产业发展的作用显著,而中等教育的作用不显著,且存在区域差异;在高等教育发达地区,高等教育对旅游业发展的效应不显著,而在高等教育落后地区则较为显著。中部地区高等教育的旅游产业反馈效应一般。因此,高等教育落后地区要重视旅游高等教育的规模和质量,教育发达地区要重视旅游教育的结构和层次。     

政府间高等教育投资责任划分研究——教育收益区域性与外溢性的视角

教育收益的受益主体是受教育者和社会。学费,体现了受教育者个人的教育成本分担,政府投资,体现了作为教育社会受益主体代表——政府的公共责任。从地域上考察,教育收益具有天然的区域性和外溢性特点,在受益一能力一责任一权利对等的原则下,如何在中央与地方之间科学合理的划分教育财政责任,是教育财政体制的一个重大问题。在我国,存在中央政府高等教育投资责任既越位又缺位,地方政府高等教育投资责任既缺失又过度的双重矛盾与困惑。重构、明晰政府间高等教育责任,改革中央与地方共建高校机制,是我国高等教育财政体制改革的目标与重点。     

Has the Public Sector Retained its 'Model Employer' Status?

The authors investigate whether public sector organizations can still be considered 'model employers' as they were before the late 1970s. Comparisons are made with private sector human resource management (HRM) practices to determine how closely the 'model employer' rhetoric approximates the public sector reality. The article focuses on recent changes in the core and traditional non-traded areas of public sector employment funded directly through either central or local taxation—the National Health Service, central and local government and higher education. Objective quantitative data on public sector HRM practices and flexible work patterns are examined from both primary and secondary sources. Central to the discussion is the question of which sector offers the greater job security to employees.     

Public governance and executive perks under a weak corporate governance environment

We reveal state-led anti-corruption campaigns in China can mitigate excess executive perk consumption facilitated by firms' weak internal control environment. Our findings suggest that public governance can substitute for firm-level governance mechanisms. Since these campaigns enhance the central government's disciplinary power over local state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the above effects are heightened among SOEs controlled by provincial/municipal governments rather than the central government. Irrespective of political connections, non-SOEs are also affected, indicating policy effect spillover to China's private sectors. We explore several underlining mechanisms for these effects, including Communist Party Committee governance, chief executive officer/chairperson dismissal, industry competition, and firm productivity.     

学前教育经费投入水平的地区差异与成因——基于省级数据的实证分析

利用2002~2011年31个省、市、自治区的面板数据测算我国学前教育生均经费地区差异的基尼系数,并对其进行静态和动态分解。结果表明,学前教育三年行动计划的实施对促进学前教育的公平发展起到了一定的作用,但地区差异仍十分突显。根据地区学前教育投入水平差异的形成原因,应加大政府投入,强化教育公平,支持民间投资,完善贫困资助制度。     

Rediscounting under Aggregate Risk with Moral Hazard

Freeman (1999) proposes a model in which discount window lending and open‐market operations have different effects. This is important because in most of the literature these policies are indistinguishable. However, Freeman's argument that the central bank should absorb losses associated with default to provide risk sharing stands in stark contrast to the concern that central banks should limit their exposure to credit risk. We extend Freeman's model by introducing moral hazard. With moral hazard, the central bank should avoid absorbing losses and Freeman's argument breaks down. However, we show that policies resembling discount window lending and open‐market operations can still be distinguished in this new framework. The optimal policy is for the central bank to make a restricted number of creditors compete for funds. By restricting the number of agents, the central bank can limit the moral hazard problem. By making them compete with each other, the central bank can exploit market information that reveals the state of the economy.     

EDUCATION AND DEVELOPMENT: A Review

The article reviews the evidence on the role of education ineconomic development, with emphasis on issues that have appearedin the literature in the past two decades: the contributionof education to economic growth, the screening hypothesis, thesegmentation of the labour market, the return to investmentin schooling, and the effects of education on unemployment andincome distribution. It concludes with an optimistic assessmentof the contribution of educational investment to the developmentprocess, especially when such investment is targeted to primaryschooling, general education, and improvements in the qualityof instruction and when it is accompanied by cost-recovery atthe higher levels of education.      

Returns of Education in the Czech Republic

Prepared for presentation at the Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF) in Seville, Spain, 28–31 August 2000, for the session on the opportunity-equalising effects of fiscal systems.University education is nowadays provided as public goods in the Czech Republic. Due to economic pressure on public finance the trend of the 90s became the internalisation of costs associated with university education.The generally accepted hypothesis is that nowadays the returns from the costs of university education are achieved in a shorter time than before economic transition. Additionally, it is thought that the return on university education is differentiated by professions. We aim to test these hypotheses. That is why the cornerstone of our study is the deeper analysis of the differentiation of selected professions in the current state in comparison to the period before transition.After 1989, due to the economic transition and development of the market economy, wage differentiation accelerated in the Czech Republic. An important factor in differentiation seems to be the level of human capital, represented above all by university education. Education significantly increased the chance of finding a job, as another analysis has proven. However, these positive effects of education have been paid for by considerable monetary and non-monetary costs.The paper provides an economic analysis at the level of an individual and his point of return between costs and revenues from university education. To achieve an exact but still simple analysis we take into account only quantifiable monetary costs and revenues. The calculation of the point of return is done with the use of the construction of a cumulated whole-life income and its interpolation. The analysis uses data for the Czech Republic in 1988 and 1997.     

Public education reform: Community or national funding of education?

I use a political economy model of public funding of education to evaluate the welfare implications of a move from a community- to a nation-wide funding policy. Broadening the scope of education finance has intragenerational redistribution effects as well as intergenerational effects. Previous studies have emphasized the intragenerational redistribution effects of moving from local to state-financed systems, while holding factor prices fixed. The model in this paper includes a social security system and allows factor prices to vary endogenously. I examine the welfare effects of broadening the scope of financing from a community- to a nation-wide system and find that there are very large welfare gains as voters “internalize” the effect of the education policy on both factor prices and social security benefits. I also focus on the intergenerational distributional effects, finding that significant welfare gains occur despite the displacement of the median voter to an older agent that cares less about children's well-being.     

Official interventions and the forward premium anomaly

This paper presents evidence that the forward premium anomaly intensifies during those times when a central bank intervenes. A model of exchange rate determination is presented to explain this and other features of the dollar–deutschemark and dollar–yen markets. In the model, the forward premium anomaly is caused by surprise central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. Because interventions are pure surprises, the violations of uncovered interest parity that they create do not represent ex ante profit opportunities. Simulations of the model are found to match the forward premium anomaly and several other notable features of the data. The model also provides a theoretical basis for ARCH effects in exchange-rate returns.     

Fiscal-monetary policy interactions in the presence of unionized labor markets

This paper develops a framework for studying the interactions between labor unions, fiscal policy, monetary policy and monopolistically competitive firms. The framework is used to investigate the effects of labor taxes, the replacement ratio, labor market institutions and monetary policymaking institutions on economic peformance in the presence of strategic interactions between labor unions and the central bank. Given fiscal variables, higher levels of either centralization of wage bargaining, or of central bank conservativeness are associated with lower unemployment and inflation. However the forward shifting of changes in either labor taxes or in unemployment benefits to labors costs is larger the higher are those institutional variables. The paper also considers the effects of those institutions on the choice of labor taxes and of unemployment benefits by governments concerned with the costs of inflation and unemployment, as well as with redistribution to particular constituencies. A main result is that, normally, higher levels of centralization and conservativeness induce government to set higher labor taxes. JEL Classification: E5 · E6 · H2 · J3 · J5 · L1     

中国交通基础设施与农村经济增长的实证研究

基础设施作为社会先行资本对经济发展有着重要作用,而交通基础设施是基础设施中很重要的部分,其发展和完善对农村经济增长有着积极的促进作用。使用C-D生产函数对农村农业部门1991～2009年29省市的面板数据进行回归,结果显示交通基础设施产出弹性为0.0327,分东、中、西部三个区域来看中部地区交通设施对经济增长影响最大,加大交通设施的投入不但可以促进中部地区经济增长,而且有利于全国范围的经济增长;对非农部门1998～2007年30省市的面板数据回归结果显示交通设施对非农部门的影响不显著。     

学区房溢价的影响因素:教育质量的视角

优质教育资源可能形成于学校的教育质量,也可能来源于生源质量。房地产的市场化定价机制为探讨优质教育资源的背后形成机制提供了便利。本文利用北京市二手房成交数据,采用特征价格模型和边界固定效应法,估算了学区房溢价。在此基础上,利用学校层面的教育质量信息,探讨了教育质量对学区房溢价的解释力。实证结果表明,以学校物质资本和教师人力资本所表征的教育质量是学区房溢价,即优质教育资源的主要来源,解释了总体学区房溢价的64.71%,这种解释力在考虑了潜在的内生性问题后依旧稳健。进一步通过量化北京市的三个教育强区(西城区、东城区和海淀区)中教育质量的解释力,发现优质教育资源既可形成于优质生源集聚,也可形成于教育经费投入长期累积所带来的教育质量的提升。义务教育均衡化改革,推动优质公共投入的公平供给,是平抑高企的学区房价格的有效手段。     

我国区域经济政策与区域金融发展不平衡研究

改革开放以来,我国各地区金融发展呈现较大的不平衡性,一个重要的原因是我国金融发展是由政府特别是中央政府主导推动的。本文首先通过泰尔指数来描述区域金融发展的不平衡性,发现东、中、西和东北地区间及地区内均存在金融发展不平衡的问题,进而分析中央政府的财政、股票、利率等政策所带来的效应,发现区域政策会进一步加剧区域金融发展的不平衡性。     

问诊义务教育投资

要按照财力与事权相统一的原则，调整中央与地方之间的义务教育投入分配比例，形成“中央出大头、省政府出中头、县级政府出小头”的投入分工格局     

利用外资对我国区域技术创新溢出效应的动态面板研究

采用2000~2010年相关数据,运用动态面板数据模型进行实证分析,发现利用外资对我国东、中、西三大区域都产生了正向技术创新溢出效应,且西部地区溢出效应最明显,其次是东部地区,而中部地区最小。考察不同区域研发机构内生增长机制后发现,东部地区的动态效应最显著,其次是中部地区东、中、西最小。研究同时发现,经济发展水平、贸易开放度、科研投入水平和人力资本水平对技术创新的影响也存在区域效应。