Analysts Earnings Forecasts and the Roles of Earnings and Book Value in Equity Valuation

This study examines the effect of the degree of association between current earnings and expected future earnings on the relative importance of earnings and book value for explaining equity price. Consensus analysts forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings are used to proxy for expected future earnings and are compared to reported current earnings to measure the degree of the association. We find that the value-relevance of current earnings negatively correlates with the extent to which consensus analysts forecasts deviate from current earnings. We also find that the incremental explanatory power of book value for equity price positively correlates with this measure. These results remain robust after controlling for factors known to be affecting the value-relevance of earnings such as negative earnings and the earnings-to-book ratio. Our results also show that this analysts' forecast-based measure of `earnings persistence' dominates historical earnings variance in explaining cross-sectional variations in the value-relevance of earnings and book value.     

股权再融资与盈余管理研究辨析

对已有文献进行总结,是学术创新的重要基础。股权再融资过程中的盈余管理是值得研究的问题,本文归纳近几年的文献,从研究设计、研究技术路线、研究方法、未来研究趋势等方面对此问题进行梳理,以此来探寻关于股权再融资与盈余管理问题的研究现状及未来方向。     

私募股权资本与创业板企业上市前盈余管理

本文考察了私募股权资本对我国创业板企业上市前盈余管理活动的影响,对私募股权投资者进行了界定和区分,采用多种指标衡量盈余管理程度,用工具变量两阶段回归等方法控制自选择偏差。研究发现,根据持股时间不同划分的长、短期私募股权资本对企业上市前盈余管理行为影响的方向和程度均不相同,长期持股的PE机构显著降低了企业的盈余管理程度;相反,上市前一年内突击入股的PE机构显著增加了企业的盈余管理程度。这种不同PE机构对企业创业板上市前盈余管理行为的差异化影响,在创业板的一级市场和二级市场上已被投资者给予区分。本文进而提出了政策建议。     

Sustained Earnings and Revenue Growth,Earnings Quality,and Earnings Response Coefficients

We show that firms reporting sustained increases in both earnings and revenues have (1) higher quality earnings and (2) larger earnings response coefficients (ERCs) in comparison to firms reporting sustained increases in earnings alone. With respect to earnings quality, firms with revenue-supported increases in earnings have more persistent earnings, exhibit less susceptibility to earnings management, and have higher future operating performance. With respect to response coefficients, firms with revenue-supported increases in earnings have both higher ERCs and lower book value response coefficients, consistent with the implications of the Ohlson (1995, Contemporary Accounting Research 12, 661–687) model.JEL Classification: G12, M41     

商业银行视角下的私募股权融资研究

中国是一个私募股权融资正在勃兴的巨大市场,私募股权融资不仅有利于我国产业结构的调整、行业的整合,而且可以促进我国多层次资本市场的发展。商业银行特别是大型商业银行为私募股权融资提供服务具备多种优势。商业银行的介入既推动了私募股权融资的发展,也拓展了自身的业务领域,增加了中间业务收入。虽然私募基金和商业银行选择项目都采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,但是它们选择项目的方法论是不同的,前者一般以静止的观点看待企业,而后者则用发展的眼光选择企业,它们选择项目的具体标准存在较大区别。     

Style Drift in Private Equity

Abstract:  We introduce the concept of style drift to private equity investment. We present theory and evidence pertaining to style drifts in terms of a fund manager's stated focus on particular stages of entrepreneurial development. We develop a model that derives conditions under which style drifts are less likely among younger fund managers. We also show ways in which changes in market conditions can affect style drifts, and differences for funds committed to early-stage investments compared to funds committed to late-stage investments. We find some evidence of a positive relation between style drifting and investment performance.     

上市公司信息披露质量与证券分析师盈利预测

本文研究了上市公司信息披露状况与分析师预测行为之间的关系，结果发现，分析师的预测准确性总体上显著优于随机游走模型。进一步的研究发现，上市公司信息披露状况会对证券分析师的预测特征产生影响，信息披露透明度越高，分析师预测对会计盈利数据的依赖程度越低，预测准确性也随之提高。     

Income Smoothing, Earnings Quality and Firm Valuation

Abstract:   This study argues that lower variability of earnings does not guarantee income smoothers' higher firm values. Instead, smoothers' earnings should be more value‐relevant if they are of high quality, i.e., earnings quality should be considered simultaneously. Sample firms are divided into four groups: quality earnings smoothers, quality earnings non‐smoothers, non‐quality earnings smoothers, and non‐quality earnings non‐smoothers. Value relevance of reported earnings is then studied using both the levels and the changes approaches with indicator variables. Results show quality earnings smoothers have the highest price‐earnings multiple while non‐quality non‐smoothers have the lowest price‐earnings multiple.     

Wealth Effects of Private Equity Placements: Evidence from Singapore

We examine institutional characteristics and the wealth effects of private equity placements in Singapore. Our findings show that private placements in Singapore generally result in a negative wealth effect and a reduction in ownership concentration. We find that at high levels of ownership concentration, the relation between abnormal returns and changes in ownership concentration is significantly negative. We also show that the market reacts less favorably to placements in which management ownership falls below 50%, but more favorably to issues to single investors. We do not find evidence suggesting that our results are due to an information effect.     

我国私募股权基金监管刍议

私募股权基金的监管模式主要有行业自律和政府监管两种,国内对此还存在很多争议。借鉴美国行业自律的监管模式,本文提出我国私募股权基金的监管模式应以内部监管为主,引入托管人机制加强内部治理,在此基础上构建我国私募股权基金的监管体系。     

The Effect of Earnings Management on the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings

Abstract:   Is earnings management affecting (driving) the measures of earnings conservatism? Ball et al. (2000) point out that the asymmetry in the recognition of good and bad news in earnings (faster recognition of bad news: earnings conservatism) is more pronounced in common‐law than in code‐law based accounting regimes. However, comparative studies on earnings conservatism in Europe have failed to identify significant differences between common‐law and code‐law based countries. We argue that in code‐law based countries managers have incentives to reduce earnings consistently. This enhances the association between earnings and returns in bad news periods. We find that after controlling for discretionary accruals, the differential earnings response to bad news in Germany and France decreases significantly.     

私募股权投资基金研究——基于券商角度

次贷危机的爆发,使得诸多国际私募股权基金纷纷转战中国,挖掘中国市场价值。当前,中国已经成为全球私募股权基金的投资中心之一。从我国私募股权基金市场的格局来看,目前已经形成了多种组织模式并存、参与者逐渐扩大化的态势。与传统的靠天吃饭的盈利模式不同,券商开展直投业务不仅有利于自身赢利空间的拓展,而且有利于发挥地域优势,针对中小企业的需求提供特色服务,其自身也具备一定的优势。本文沿袭这条思路,重点对我国券商参与直投业务的相关规定、券商开展直投业务的现状及其问题进行了讨论。     

私募基金现状及商业银行应对策略研究

近年来我国私募基金市场快速发展,逐渐成为一种全新的直接投资模式。研究和制定私募基金业务的拓展策略,对商业银行拓展新兴业务领域、加快实现经营结构转型具有重要的战略意义。本文将在分析我国私募基金市场发展状况、私募基金业务经营模式、发展状况的基础上,提出商业银行拓展募基金市场的策略建议。     

Implications of Components of Income Excluded from Pro Forma Earnings for Future Profitability and Equity Valuation

Abstract:  This study addresses three research questions relating to total exclusions, special items, and other exclusions. Are each of these pro forma exclusion components forecasting irrelevant? Are each of the exclusion components value irrelevant? Are the valuation multiples on the exclusion components justified by their ability to forecast future profitability as predicted by the Ohlson (1999) model? Findings are generally consistent with the market-inefficiency results presented in Doyle et al. (2003) . Total exclusions are valued negatively by the market despite the prediction that total exclusions will be valued positively. Valuation results also suggest that stocks with positive other exclusions are overpriced.     

A Wealth-Based Explanation for Earnings Conservatism

This study extends research on earnings conservatism – the degree to which the accounting system recognizes bad news regarding future cash flows in a more timely manner than good news – by arguing that heterogeneous executives' risk attitudes will influence the degree of conservatism. Prior research has demonstrated that differences in earnings conservatism are mainly the result of differences in institutional factors (Basu (1997) and Ball et al. (2000a)). We hypothesize that more risk-averse managers, who demand a risk premium that offsets the effects of the variance in their compensation, will report more conservative earnings. Earnings conservatism will temper expectations among stakeholders about the future cash flows to be distributed thereby diminishing the likelihood of disappointing outcomes and potential litigation or threats for executives of being fired. The more risk-averse manager would be more inclined to reduce such conflicts, since they will have a destabilizing effect on his future compensation. The empirical results for a sample of Dutch companies over the period of 1983 to 1995 confirm our hypothesis: more risk-averse managers report earnings more conservatively than do less risk-averse managers.     

Private Equity Syndication: Agency Costs, Reputation and Collaboration

Abstract:  Syndicates are a form of inter-firm alliance in which two or more private equity firms invest together in an investee firm and share a joint pay-off, and are an enduring feature of the leveraged buyout (LBO) and private equity industry. This study examines the relationship between syndication and agency costs at the investor-investee level, and the extent to which the reputation and the network position of the lead investor mediate this relationship. We examine this relationship using a sample of 1,122 buyout investments by 80 private equity companies in the UK between 1993 and 2006. Our findings show that where agency costs are highest, and hence ex-post monitoring by the lead investor is more important, syndication is less likely to occur. The negative relationship between agency costs and syndication, however, is alleviated by the reputation and network position of the lead investor firm.     

Timeliness of Reporting and Earnings Information Transfers

This study examines earnings timeliness and its effect on earnings information transfers. Empirical analyses focus on a sample of approximately fifteen hundred earnings reports and nearly four thousand information transfers. The principal findings are: (1) earlier earnings releases yield negative information transfers, (2) earnings releases yield negative (nominal) information transfers to firms that previously (subsequently) release their earnings reports, and (3) earlier earnings releases yield negative information transfers to firms that have not yet disclosed earnings. These findings show that the timing of earnings reports has significant and far-reaching economic consequences.     

Ownership, Investor Protection and Earnings Expectations

Abstract:  This study examines the interactive influence of corporate ownership, corporate governance and investor protection on the incorporation of current value shocks in the accounting earnings of European companies. This influence is investigated not only by means of the association between current news and current earnings but also with respect to the association of the same news with expected future earnings, and its persistence. Consistent with the contractual explanation of accounting conservatism, it is shown that the accounting behaviour examined is a function of the demand created by shareholders, and that the institutional arrangements in force are of lesser significance in the presence of widely held ownership. On the other hand, greater separation between supervision and management and stronger investor protection are seen to be influential under close ownership, as these are shown to curb aggressive accounting in the form of a persistently lower recognition of bad news in earnings. Evidence is also provided that stricter corporate governance practices in Europe can substitute for weaknesses in investor protection provisions in law.     

私募股权基金投资网络关系测度实证研究

私募股权基金在联合投资过程中结成了以信任、分享和互利为主要特征的投资网络,本文利用社会网络分析法,从网络密度、捷径距离、网络中心度、结构洞、派系及核心-边缘结构等角度,对私募股权基金联合投资形成的网络结构特征进行测度研究,分析结果表明中国情境下的私募股权基金投资网络是个非凝聚性和地位不均衡的网络,网络地位突出的基金通常拥有较强的网络影响力和联合投资上的合作优势。