Small U.S. dairy farms: can they compete?

The U.S. dairy industry is undergoing rapid structural change, evolving from a structure including many small farmers in the Upper Midwest and Northeast to one that includes very large farms in new production regions. Small farms are struggling to retain competitiveness via improved management and low‐input systems. Using data from USDA's Agricultural Resource Management Survey, we determine the extent of U.S. conventional and pasture‐based milk production during 2003–2007, and estimate net returns, scale efficiency, and technical efficiency associated with the systems across different operation sizes. We compare the financial performance of small conventional and pasture‐based producers with one another and with large‐scale producers. A stochastic production frontier is used to analyze performance over the period for conventional and pasture technologies identified using a binomial logit model. Large conventional farms generally outperformed smaller farms using most economic measures—technical efficiency, various profitability measures, and returns to scale.     

Unearthing ‘dead capital’: Heirs’ property prediction in two U.S. southern counties

Heirs’ property is a form of tenancy in common. It is typically inherited land passed to subsequent generations as intestate property, or property inherited outside of the formal probate process, without “clear title.” In economic terms, this form of property ownership can result in inefficient property uses, as owners tend to under-invest in such properties, owing to uncertainties regarding returns on investments. This, in turn, contributes to a diminution of wealth for affected families. Unclear titles also impede homeowners’ ability to apply for various forms of land and home improvement aid offered by federal agencies. As well, tenancies in common have the effect of intensifying already existing vulnerabilities of place, again, because constraints on homeowners’ access to equity make home improvements less likely.The magnitude of the heirs’ property phenomenon is not well-understood. Extant estimates are dated and often not verifiable; and no systematic means of identifying these parcels has been accepted. We present a methodology for assessing the accuracy of predictors typically used to identify heirs’ parcels using logistic models and data from a rural Appalachian county (Leslie County, KY) and a more urban Black Belt¹ county (Macon-Bibb County, GA). This is the first attempt to empirically examine these predictors. Year property was last sold and financial caretaker are the strongest predictors in both counties. Using these indicators, the percent of correctly predicted heirs’ parcels is about 67 percent in Leslie County and 48 percent in Macon-Bibb County. Applications of this methodology for national forest planning are discussed.     

U.S. sweeteners: Combating excess consumption with an excise tax?

Obesity is a public health problem in the United States that has been linked to excess sweetener consumption. The American Heart Association (AHA) recommends no more than 6–9 teaspoons/capita/day, while the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommends 200 calories/capita/day of caloric sweetener consumption. Both recommendations are well below the reported 2016 sweetener consumption levels. We quantify the input tax rates needed to reduce the current excess sweetener consumption level to the AHA and FDA recommended standards. We calculate the joint tax in the United States on two major sweeteners, sugar and High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS), to be 31 and 24 cents per pound, respectively, based on the AHA standard, and 19 and 17 cents per pound, respectively, using the FDA standard. These taxes would be roughly the magnitude of the existing sugar and HFCS prices. In both cases, the tax incidence on producers is much smaller than on consumers. Our focus is very different from past studies in that it deals with the effect of taxes on inputs to meet the recommended target rather than a selective tax (sugar‐sweetened beverage tax). If a sweetener tax were implemented, U.S. sugar and HFCS producers would lose US$398–US$489 and US$683–US$844 million per year, respectively.     

Do the Largest Firms Grow and Diversify the Fastest? The Case of U.S. Dairies

We analyze growth and diversification of U.S. dairy farms by examining changes in ten size cohorts and new entrants through three successive censuses. We reject Gibrat's law and the mean reversion hypothesis of growth. Growth rates appear bimodal where the smallest and largest farm cohorts grow fastest. All cohorts diversify but the largest farms do not diversify as rapidly as medium-sized farms. New entrants are generally large, and they diversify more rapidly than comparably sized incumbents do. These data suggest that scale economies persist even for the largest cohort of U.S. dairy farms and scale economies dominate scope economies for large farms.     

How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk,intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products

This article examines the dynamic effects of changes in bilateral exchange rates on changes in bilateral trade of bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer‐oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates in both the short and long run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive only in the short run. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are relatively insensitive to exchange rate changes in both the short and long run. For intermediate products, exports and imports are responsive to exchange rate changes in the short run, but not in the long run. It is also found that income of the United States and its trading partners has a significant effect on U.S. exports and imports of the three types of agricultural products in both the short and long run.     

Do U.S. citizens support government intervention in agriculture? Implications for the political economy of agricultural protection

The persistence of agricultural protectionism throughout the world is intriguing given the widely recognized benefits of free trade. The political economy literature over the last decades has considered groups’ interest, politicians’ preferences, and their interactions within domestic politics as the primary forces driving agricultural protection. Yet, a growing body of studies suggests that it would be judicious to weigh in consumers’ or taxpayers’ perspectives in deciphering the nature of agricultural protection. This study examines U.S. citizens’ preferences about government intervention in agriculture and trade. Results show that they are in strong support of agricultural protection and their perceptions of national food security, family farms, environmental sustainability, and multifunctionality of agriculture play a significant role in shaping their support/opposition toward government intervention. The conventional political economy literature theorizes that consumers or taxpayers would oppose public policies that increase their tax burden; however, in the case of the farm sector, they have little incentive to voice their objections given the costs of farm programs are spread across a large number of consumers and taxpayers. U.S. citizens’ support for government involvement in agriculture as reported in this and other prior studies does not lend support for such political economy explanation.     

Hope for new communities as an alternative to sprawl?: Insights from developer perceptions of amenities in future new communities in the U.S. and U.K

New Communities are again being promoted as an alternative to sprawling urban growth. This paper uses the results of a unique survey of the real estate development communities in the U.S. and U.K. to examine the likelihood that future New Communities will provide the array of amenities necessary to create developments that provide a true alternative to sprawl. Based on an analysis of this data we conclude that while developers do envision New Communities as more amenity rich than much of the suburban master-planned communities of the last few decades, they are nonetheless still likely to produce developments that have an insufficient array of amenities to make future New Communities a strong alternative to sprawl.     

Revisiting Aggregate U.S. Meat Demand with a Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates Approach: Do We Need a More General Theory?

Although meat demand is one of the most studied issues in agricultural economics, our understanding of this phenomenon has been hampered by valid concerns about model specification uncertainty. This article revisits the need for more general theories of aggregate U.S. meat demand. Using a Bayesian averaging of classical estimates approach, we draw comprehensive inferences over 1,048,576 demand systems. We find very little evidence supporting the need for more general theories that include demand determinants beyond prices and expenditures. We find strong evidence in support of symmetry and negativity, but strong evidence against homogeneity, which is consistent with other research.     

Assessing non-industrial private forest owners’ attitudes to risk: Do owner and property characteristics matter?

This study relates owner and property characteristics to non-industrial private forest (NIPF) owners’ attitudes to financial risk-taking in forestry decisions. Using a two-period mean-variance setting, the harvesting decisions of NIPF owners are examined with the aim of measuring their willingness to take risks. Since willingness to pay for reduction of risk is empirically unobservable, I rely on an index of NIPF owners’ attitudes to risk from a hypothetical survey question involving financial risk. According to the index, respondents (owners) are categorized as risk-averse, risk-neutral or risk-seeking. I apply a probit analysis to test how owner and property characteristics influence the NIPF owners’ attitudes to risk. The results show that characteristics influence the formation of risk attitudes. More explicitly, a longer period of ownership increases the probability that the owner is risk-averse, while increased time in the forest conducting silvicultural work increases the likelihood that an owner is risk-seeking. The results also show that female NIPF owners are more risk-seeking than male owners. The study fills a knowledge gap in the literature, relating owner and property characteristics to management decisions. Inclusion of risk attitudes and the judgement of risks into studies of NIPF owners’ management can help to understand why NIPF owners’ harvesting may deviate from net present value maximisation.     

Do Community Supported Agriculture programmes encourage change to food lifestyle behaviours and health outcomes? New evidence from shareholders

Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) programmes have recently received attention for their potential to influence food lifestyle behaviours and health outcomes, though studies have mostly drawn from small samples (n?t-tests assess if paired means are statistically different, and multiple regressions of paired differences on socioeconomic factors, self-reported health, and years of CSA enrolment estimate the effect of respondent characteristics on behaviour change. The results strongly suggest that CSAs have the potential to positively impact shareholders’ food lifestyle behaviours and health outcomes, and that those reporting ‘poor health’ prior to CSA enrolment exhibited the most change overall. These results should be taken as an initial, yet promising, analysis of the impact of CSA participation on shareholder food lifestyle behaviours and health outcomes.     

Do housing prices promote total factor productivity? Evidence from spatial panel data models in explaining the mediating role of population density

The issue of what to promote in total factor productivity (TFP) in urban areas has been widely discussed in academia and housing prices and population density are confirmed to be two of the most essential driving factors. However, research into the interaction of housing prices and population density with TFP has been neglected, with no previous studies taking spatial factors into consideration, which may bias the results. From this perspective, using spatial panel data models and employing instrumental variables to solve the endogenous problem, this study examines the impact of housing prices on TFP through the mediating effect of population density for 283 Chinese cities during the period 2000–2013, and confirms that the mediating effect accounts for 18.70 % of the total effect. The results show the positive and significant association of housing prices with TFP and the inverted U-shape of population density. The underlying logic is that housing prices change population density by attracting people with high purchasing power and discouraging those unable to afford housing, whereas increased density helps to promote productivity since the settled inhabitants always have highly developed work skills and are well educated. The influencing mechanism of housing prices on TFP through population density is analyzed, namely the spillover effect. We find that the spillover effect exists in the eastern and central regions, as well as first, second, and third tier cities, while for western regions and fifth tier cities, population mobility and increased in housing prices slows their economic development. There is no evidence of any spillover effect in fourth tier cities. A discussion and suggested policy implications are also provided.     

What agricultural and food policies do U.S. consumers prefer? A best–worst scaling approach

Consumer welfare effects from policy changes are traditionally calculated using estimates of consumer preferences for the underlying goods and services affected. This conventional approach is indirect, does not consider preferences people may have for the policies themselves, and makes it difficult to easily compare relative preferability of a large set of policy options. In this paper, we use the best–worst scaling approach to determine consumers’ preferences for 13 policies. A nationwide survey of 1,056 U.S. consumers indicates the highest levels of support for investments in agricultural research and requirements of food and agricultural literacy standards in public education. Fat, calorie, and soda taxes are the least popular; fewer than one-third of respondents are in favor of these three policies.     

Do farmer,household and farm characteristics influence the adoption of sustainable practices? The evidence from the Republic of Moldova

Drought represents the main constraint on agricultural production in the Republic of Moldova indicating the need to shift from conventional agricultural practices to more sustainable ones. To provide a more comprehensive understanding of the determinants and barriers influencing the adoption of conservation agriculture practices, an analytic framework combining both binary and ordered probit models addressing the potential endogeneity of variables was applied. A survey was conducted among 234 smallholders in three districts in the Republic of Moldova from July to September 2016. The results indicated that the adoption of sustainable practices by small-scale farmers is influenced predominantly by farmer characteristics and by their perception of risk. The findings of this research confirmed that households with lower access to financial resources are less likely to adopt these practices. Consequently, the provision of alternative financing is needed in the promotion of sustainable agriculture practices.     

A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?

We adapt a Ricardian general equilibrium model to the setting of U.S. domestic agri-food trade to assess states’ vulnerability to adverse production shocks and supply chain disruptions. To this end, we analyze how domestic crop supply chains depend on fundamental state-level comparative advantages—which reflect underlying differences in states’ cost-adjusted productivity levels—and thereby illustrate the capacity of states to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of such disruptions to the U.S. agricultural sector. Based on the theoretical framework and our estimates of the model's structural parameters obtained using data on U.S. production, consumption, and domestic trade in crops, we undertake simulations to characterize the welfare implications of counterfactual scenarios depicting disruptions to (1) states’ agricultural productive capacity, and (2) interstate supply linkages. Our results emphasize that the distributional impacts of domestic supply chain disruptions hinge on individual states’ agricultural productive capacities, and that the ability of states to mitigate the impacts of adverse production shocks through trade relies on the degree to which states are able to substitute local production shortfalls by sourcing crops from other states.     

A Holistic vs. an Attribute‐based Approach to Agri‐Environmental Policy Valuation: Do Welfare Estimates Differ?

Different economic valuation methodologies can be used to value the non‐market benefits of an agri‐environmental scheme. In particular, the non‐market value can be examined by assessing the public’s willingness to pay for the policy outputs as a whole or by modelling the preferences of society for the component attributes of the rural landscape that result from the implementation of the policy. In this article we examine whether the welfare values estimated for an agri‐environmental policy are significantly different between an holistic valuation methodology (using contingent valuation) and an attribute‐based valuation methodology (choice experiment). It is argued that the valuation methodology chosen should be based on whether or not the overall objective is the valuation of the agri‐environment policy package in its entirety or the valuation of each of the policy’s distinct environmental outputs.